The Future of Urban development

[quote author="No_Such_Reality" date=1236081153]



You haven't ridden the blue and green lines have you?



Local rail is pointless in OC. The sprawl makes it pointless. We don't have enough density to make rail pragmatic from a ridership standpoint that makes it cost effective to run.



Frankly, if you live in Irvine and work in Irvine, you shouldn't drive. If you aren't taking your bike now, you aren't going to take rail either.



The only way rail is going to be faster than driving is when driving gridlocks and rail is run down the middle of Jamboree, Culver, Jeffrey with a North/South connector up Barranca. And to be truely effective, you need to extend that out to CM, HB, South County and Fullerton, Brea.



Or maybe you just want to look up how much LA Metro loses. http://www.metro.net/about_us/finance/images/cafr_2008.pdf</blockquote>


Have you ridden the red line? The social demographics of each line depends on the location. But usage of rail in LA transverses class more than the bus system.



LA Metrolink is a developing system which increases ridership as it becomes more extensive. Rail in LA has a total of 7 million average boardings a month, up 700,000 from the year before. That's going to be how many cars that's taken off the road? You're right that it loses money, but we don't ask that about the costs of freeways either.



Most people who live in Irvine aren't going to take the bus, rail or bike to other places in Irvine. That's perfectly fine. It's a casualty of sprawl. But I'm betting that most people who work in Irvine don't actually live in Irvine. I bet a heck of a lot of people are driving in from SD, LA, the IE, and other parts of OC. And that's the way rail in OC is going to work: as part of the larger rail network for all of southern california. (It'll also present a clearer purpose in the chance that high speed rail is ever built to Las Vegas and to LA/SD)



It's the long distance commuters , aside from the lower working class and the car-less, for whom rail is going to start looking really good, especially when gas prices become astronomical and OC traffic becomes unbearable, which is inevitable. I have no faith that OC freeways will be as functional in the future as they are now.
 
Great post, Savvy.



Yes, housing in Irvine is not dense enough to support rail yet it is a major employment center and thus a destination for commuters from all over So. Cal. Irvine, of course, is also home to a large university and John Wayne airport. Irvine is already served by Metrolink and Amtrak and further building some kind of light rail to key destinations like UCI, the IBC, and JWA could truly make Irvine an efficient and accessible 21st century city.



Also, I believe freedomCM meant to refer to the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pacific_Electric_Railway">Red Car</a> or the old street car line that used to serve LA.
 
When they get to Irvine how are they going to get to work? The key driver in rail adoption is proximity of the destination to a rail point.



The people taking the red line don't do it becuase it's sexier than a bus, they do it because it's faster than the bus or driving. A majority of them hop on the Dash or a bus when they get off the train.
 
[quote author="No_Such_Reality" date=1236255452]When they get to Irvine how are they going to get to work? The key driver in rail adoption is proximity of the destination to a rail point.



</blockquote>


That's why, as you said, the bus system is integral in the success of rail transit. The time using the bus network combined with the rail network significantly cuts the commute time of using the bus system alone. Ideally, we would have arms of light-rail that extend further out to different parts of the city that would lessen the number of bus connections.
 
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