The Five Stages of Panic Buying

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<a href="http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/08/five-stages-of-panic-buying.html">The Five Stages of Panic Buying!</a>



<em>1. Denial (Late March/ Early April)



?Ha, another Bear Market rally?wait til the foreclosure/ new home sales/ confidence data comes in! Right back to 6500, maybe lower?bagholders?



?Dude, the stress tests are coming out next month. B of A may be done-ski. Sell the May 10 calls, you?ll never have to cover.?



2. Anger (Mid-April)



?What the f@&% do you mean the goddamn banks are cheap based on normalized earnings? They will never ever earn anything again, ever! Idiot!?



?You gotta be kidding me with these retailers running now. RETAILERS? Are you nuts? They?re FINISHED!?



?If one more consumer discretionary name rallies on a less-than-expected loss, I?m gonna kick this Bloomberg down a flight of stairs.?



3. Bargaining (May-June)



?Okay, I can stomach picking up some large cap tech and I?ll nibble ? NIBBLE! ? at discount retailers, but I will absolutely NOT buy Goldman Sachs at 130.?



If China would just pull back 5 to 7% I?d get in, but I can?t chase it here?except Sohu, and I guess a little Baidu and I?ll just take a quarter position in China Mobile just in case. But I?m not chasing here.?



?(whispered) Dear market god, please stop the tape. Just give me one crack at the Nazz and some banks and I will never doubt the solvency of the US balance sheet or the wisdom of the Troubled Asset Relief Program ever again.?



4. Depression (July)



?I can?t believe I missed it. Those D-bags next to me are high-fiving after every earnings report. Hate those f@&%ing guys.?



?How could Las Vegas Sands do this to me? I?ve been watching this stock go up for 900% now. Couldn?t just give me one chance to get in. I suck.?



5. Acceptance (Early August)



?That?s it! I don?t give a damn anymore, GET ME IN NOW! Forget the big ones, they?re already up too much, are there any $5 stocks left that haven?t done anything yet?



?I gotta blow out this stupid GLD, it does nothing, sick of it and sick of hearing about inflation. Even Paulson blew it out. Get me some $2 biotechs and some midwest regional bank stocks, I gotta get poppin? over here! We?re going to 10,000 baby!?</em>



ROFL! The only part I snickered at was number #1, I... along with a few others, bought those calls on BofA, and made a little money off those selling me/us the calls.
 
This perfectly sums up my feelings right about now.



Except I'm still in the Depression phase, and trying to fight off my urge to buy back in.



A sure sign that we are near the top of this swing.



Or not. *sigh*
 
I forced my wife to go all cash in late July, which means we missed the last half of the rally, but I'm not all that sad. If there hasn't been a serious drop by the end of November, I'll concede that the bear is dead and gone.
 
We've been inching back in. GE at $7 was just too good of a deal to pass up. Sold half and can't decide whether to sell the other half? JOYG at $21 was also too good to pass up, sold half at $42 and debating whether to sell the other half at $47? Inched into a few others last week on dips that are up 6-8%%. Am really tempted to sell because wasn't expecting them to surge that much that fast. What to do, what to do?



I am kicking myself for not buying more in March. So many stocks looked so damned cheap. Even buying the stocks I did then felt like I was taking a big gamble.



What's really weird is overall no capital has been lost and overall is a modest return, but it still feels like the investment accounts have been battered. I guess maybe because it has been a combination of big losses mixed with big gains and a good percent in cash that did nothing.
 
I have been all in since March but started to lighten up positions last month...Now I am not so sure of that call. Still made a ton goin against the grain and I NEVER sweat a profit. There is always something to trade. The last 6 months have been the most wonderful trading months in my 24 year career. I have no complaints
 
[quote author="morekaos" date=1253657093]I have been all in since March but started to lighten up positions last month...Now I am not so sure of that call. Still made a ton goin against the grain and I NEVER sweat a profit. There is always something to trade. The last 6 months have been the most wonderful trading months in my 24 year career. I have no complaints</blockquote>


You know what happens to pigs.
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1253671684][quote author="morekaos" date=1253657093]I have been all in since March but started to lighten up positions last month...Now I am not so sure of that call. Still made a ton goin against the grain and I NEVER sweat a profit. There is always something to trade. The last 6 months have been the most wonderful trading months in my 24 year career. I have no complaints</blockquote>


You know what happens to pigs.</blockquote>
Hogs get fed, pigs get slaughtered.
 
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