The Falling Dollar

profette_IHB

New member
<p>Interesting discussion in the <a href="http://www.economist.com/opinion/displaystory.cfm?story_id=10208445&CFID=22818142&CFTOKEN=52720126">Economist</a>...</p>

<p><img title="" height="272" alt=" " width="270" src="http://www.economist.com/images/20071201/CBB420.gif" /></p>

<p>"...That currencies rise and fall and test records is hardly unusual. What lends the dollar's decline an air of crisis is that the world's bloated currency reserves are crammed with depreciating dollar assets. Foreign-exchange stockpiles have almost tripled to $5.7 trillion since the beginning of the decade. China alone has $1.4 trillion of reserves. Japan's $1 trillion or so make it the second-largest holder. </p>

<p>In this period of swelling reserves, the dollar has retained its pre-eminence. It still accounts for nearly 65% of identifiable currency-stockpiles, according to the latest IMF data. This is broadly in line with its historical share (see chart above). Factor in the dollars hoarded by China and Middle Eastern oil exporters (not included in the IMF breakdown) and the dollar's share may be higher still..."</p>

<p><img title="" height="168" alt=" " width="256" src="http://www.economist.com/images/20071201/CBB431.gif" /></p>

<p>"...If the dollar's dominance is to end, two or more currencies are likely to share the crown. Those who take a grand sweep of history are backing China's yuan as a big reserve currency of the future. The dollar's immediate rival, however, is the euro. In several important respects—the euro area's size, the depth of its capital markets and its share of world trade—it has the attributes of an ideal reserve currency (see table above). Unlike America, the euro area has the added attraction of a broadly balanced current account.</p>

<p>The euro has already made inroads into the dollar's territory. At its launch in 1999, its constituent currencies—the mark, franc, lira, etc—accounted for less than a fifth of the world's official reserves. Its share has since increased to around a quarter, even as total currency reserves have swollen. The euro area is less dependent on oil imports than America is and it sells more to oil exporters as well as to fast-growing economies such as China and Brazil."</p>
 
Can anyone explain to me in english why the dollar is falling, why it matters, and how this will affect purchasing power domestically and internationally as well as its effect on the housing market? I was asleep during most of my macro economics class. Thanks!
 
<strong><a href="http://www.slate.com/id/2174675">Who Cares About the Weak Dollar? What currency devaluation means for the average Joe.</a></strong>
 
Thanks profette!





That was refreshingly easy to understand. Even though I learn so much from this site, sometimes when I read some of the analysis, because I'm such a newbie it sounds like the way the adults talk in the Peanuts shows: Wa-wah-wa-wah-wah-wah.
 
Ask Awgee, but here's my 2 cents:





A weak dollar does not necessarily encourage foreigners to invest in our stocks and bonds. You want whatever currency you are holding (or whatever currency your assets are denominated in) to STRENGTHEN. Example; say 65 Euros buys 100 dollars (0.65:1.0). I then invest in US stocks but I must switch my Euros to dollars first. After 3 months I sell my stocks and convert back to Euros. At this point the exchange rate is 1.0:0.70. That means 100 dollars now gets me 70 Euros and I am happy.





If I am a German businessman and I feel the dollar is going to continue to fall, I'd be hesitant to buy dollars or US dollar denominated investments. A falling dollar also puts pressure on foreign currencies that are pegged to the dollar. The price of oil is also denominated in dollars. Since I believe the dollar will continue to weaken, I have aggressively increased my investments in overseas funds





A weak dollar is basically Larry Kudlow's ultimate fantasy. It's great for big business and multi-national corporations It is also usually coupled with low interest rates, which stimulates business borrowing. a weak and/or falling dollar does not benefit your average hard-working American. I wouldn't put your hopes on foreign investors saving the housing market either.
 
<p>POITG-</p>

<p>My take on it from a pure layman's standpoint:</p>

<p><em>Can anyone explain to me in english why the dollar is falling</em>, </p>

<p>Supply and demand, mainly. So many investments that had high rates of return were denominated in dollars so they were being converted at a very high rate. When the investments turned sour the flow was reversed and the dollar has been sliding as a result. Typically large amounts of Japanese Yen were borrowed at a very low interest rate, converted to dollars, and then invested in the US; this is the mysterious "carry trade". When the exchange rate went from ~Y118:$1 down to ~Y109:$1 that was a clear signal that dollars were being converted back into yen in very large batches.</p>

<p><em>why it matters,</em> </p>

<p>A strong dollar reflects the underlying value of the country as a whole. It attracts investment, which leads to jobs, provides credit for business expansion. and lowers the cost of doing business outside of our borders. It also affects the interest rates we have to pay others to entice them to loan us their money, as pointed out by lendingmaestro previously. </p>

<p><em>and how this will affect purchasing power domestically and internationally </em></p>

<p>Import prices for goods we buy, export prices for goods we sell (especially farm products) and the profits for companies involved in those businesses all see-saw back and forth based on exchange rates. The higher the euro goes, the lower the dollar goes which means we pay more for their stuff and we get less for ours. </p>

<p><em>as well as its effect on the housing market?</em> </p>

<p>The strength of the dollar has zero effect on the housing market this time around. The current dollar weakness is a consequence of the bubble collapsing, IMO, not the cause. They could drain the supply of dollars until the index was back above 100 and it won't make a difference for housing because the pool of buyers at current prices is empty and no banks are going to take on the kind of loans that fueled the last two years of price inflation. Like a wildfire reaching the water's edge, it died for lack of fuel.</p>

<p>I hope that helps clear things up a bit.</p>
 
<p>poig - The simple explanation is a book or two.</p>

<p>But, it means when you go to Wal-mart to buy stuff made in China, the goods will cost more dollars.</p>

<p>It means, Abu Dhabi will be buying US companies.</p>

<p>It means you will pay more for gas, and heating oil and natural gas.</p>

<p>It means interest rates will rise as other countries no longer find US t-bills attractive. Look at the LIBOR.</p>

<p>Does any of this sound familiar?</p>

<p>The odd thing is that most Americans think that, "Why should this matter to me?" History shows that a strong currency equals a strong self-determined country and a weak currency equals a weak country at the mercy of the stronger countries. Americans have been taught not to care about their currency as the Fed will take of things.</p>
 
A weak dollar means more exports which means more jobs to make those exports which means increased wage pressure which eventually raises wages which means that housing at today's prices is soon to be affordable to all Americans. <strong>Get your house very soon or you'll be priced out forever. </strong>
 
This article was posted back in May... am interested to know if RE conditions in Manhattan has changed (up/down) since.





http://www.nytimes.com/2007/05/08/realestate/08irish.html?pagewanted=2&_r=1





May 8, 2007

<nyt_headline type=" " version="1.0"> An Irish Taste for Real Estate in Manhattan </nyt_headline>

<nyt_byline type=" " version="1.0"> </nyt_byline>

By <a title="More Articles by Patrick Mcgeehan" href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/m/patrick_mcgeehan/index.html?inline=nyt-per">PATRICK McGEEHAN</a>

<nyt_text> </nyt_text>

<p> They live an ocean away, but that has not stopped the Irish from lining up to buy condominiums in Midtown <a title="Find Real Estate listings and community news for New York City" href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/classifieds/realestate/locations/newyork/newyorkcity/manhattan/?inline=nyt-geo">Manhattan</a>, often years before they are built. </p>

<p>In some cases, entire buildings or large blocks of apartments in unfinished high-rises are being sold to Irish investors hungry to own a piece of <a title="Find Real Estate listings and community news for New York City" href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/classifieds/realestate/locations/newyork/newyorkcity/manhattan/?inline=nyt-geo">New York City</a>.</p>

<p> Neil McCann, an entrepreneur in Belfast, joined the rush of would-be Manhattan landlords last year when he said he signed a contract to buy a one-bedroom apartment near Gramercy Park for $600,000. </p>

<p> “It’s an Irishman’s dream to be able to go to Manhattan and be able to buy property there,” said Mr. McCann, 36, who added that he hoped to buy more New York apartments.</p>

<p>With a weak dollar, Mr. McCann said, the New York apartments are relative bargains compared with real estate in Ireland and Britain. </p>

<p>After a long economic boom that earned their country the nickname the Celtic Tiger, the Irish are flush with cash and searching the globe for places to invest it. </p>

<p>The westward flow of money “seems to be another example of how, in the wake of the Celtic Tiger, the relationship between Ireland and the United States has flipped,” said Linda Dowling Almeida, who teaches Irish studies at <a title="More articles about New York University." href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/n/new_york_university/index.html?inline=nyt-org">New York University</a>. </p>

<p>The buyers do not even have to travel to New York, because the sellers are coming to them. Armed with glossy brochures about amenity-laden towers, New York brokers like Anne Marie Moriarty, of the Corcoran Group, have been dropping in to Dublin and Belfast and taking deposits.</p>

<p> “Most of these people are buying one or two apartments at a time,” said Ms. Moriarty, who has specialized in selling to the Irish for about two and a half years.</p>

<p> “Many of them buy off plan, because they’re fearless,” she added, referring to the custom of putting money down on apartments long before they are completed.</p>

<p> Of course, people from all over the world have been contributing to the sustained demand for apartments in Manhattan. But developers and brokers said the Irish seem to be the voracious newcomers of the moment, though their purchases have drawn less attention than previous buying sprees by the Japanese and the Saudis, who made splashes by acquiring trophy properties like Rockefeller Center and the Plaza hotel. </p>

<p> “Because of the weak dollar, we’re seeing a lot of European buyers and it just seems like there’s a disproportionate amount from Ireland,” said Jonathan J. Miller, president of Miller Samuel, a real estate consulting company.</p>

<p> Jules Demchick, who has developed several buildings in Manhattan, said the Irish are following a long parade of foreign buyers. “I’ve seen the Persians and the French and the Dutch and the Germans and the South Americans do this,” said Mr. Demchick, the president of J. D. Carlisle. </p>

<p>Still, he said he was surprised when Cathal McGinley, managing director of the Irish broker Kean Mahony Smith, offered to take a block of apartments in the Centria, a high-rise near Rockefeller Center, and sell them in Ireland.</p>

<p> After Mr. McGinley’s company quickly sold the first 25, he came back for more. Eventually, most of the units in the building were sold to Irish investors, most of whom planned to rent them.</p>

<p> “Bar none, the No. 1 investment strategy for an Irish person is through property,” Mr. McGinley said. “Your average Joe on the street has probably got two, three, four, five residential assets. It’s considered to be a safe play.”</p>

<p> To them, an apartment in the center of Manhattan, no matter if it measures only 800 square feet, is a “trophy asset,” Mr. McGinley said.</p>

<p> His company also sold more than 60 apartments in the Atelier, a new building on the west end of 42nd Street.</p>

<p> Jay Eisenstadt, whose company, Esplanade Capital in Manhattan, is developing a 43-story condominium on Eighth Avenue in the theater district, said he planned to sell all 122 units in the building to a company based in Dublin, the Sorrento Group, which would then resell them to investors. Selling them as a block is more cost-effective than lining up buyers one by one, Mr. Eisenstadt said.</p>

<p> “The amount of money floating around over here is just phenomenal,” said Bryan Turley, Sorrento’s chief executive. “At some stage it has to leave the island. If you follow where Irish money is going, a good deal of it is going into property.”</p>

<p> Mr. Turley said his company had bought a piece of land near the <a title="More articles about the Empire State Building." href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/subjects/e/empire_state_building/index.html?inline=nyt-classifier">Empire State Building</a>, where a construction company owned by two brothers from County Kerry will build a 110-unit apartment building. Sorrento will then buy the finished building and sell the apartments, probably mostly to Irish buyers, he said.</p>

<p> At the heart of this investment surge lies some simple math, brokers said. With the dollar at historically low levels against the euro and the British pound, apartments generally cost less in Manhattan than in Dublin or London. But they still rent for more in Manhattan.</p>

<p> “Even if they could afford to buy in Dublin,” Ms. Moriarty said, “they could not get rent anywhere near what they get here.”</p>

<p> Kevin Harmon, a broker with Savills Hamilton Osbourne King, a real estate company in Dublin, used the example of a luxurious one-bedroom apartment in Manhattan that would sell for $900,000, equivalent to about 665,000 euros. </p>

<p> “For 665,000 euros, you’d buy a very nice two- or three-bedroom apartment in a good development” in the Dublin area, Mr. Harmon said. But the rent on the apartment in Dublin would be about 2,000 euros, or $2,700 a month, while the place in New York would rent for about $4,000 a month, he said.</p>

<p> “Going to New York and looking at those prices in dollars, there was a time when they would be a shock,” Mr. Harmon said. </p>

<p>Now, with the Irish property market cooling after a long, steep run, he added, “People feel there is better opportunity for capital appreciation there.”</p>

<p> To experienced property buyers like Mr. McCann, investing in real estate almost anywhere sounds safer then buying stocks on the exchange in Dublin or London. Mr. McCann, who said he had never owned a share of company stock, said he largely agreed with Mr. McGinley’s view that trusting one’s retirement to the vagaries of the financial markets would be “utter madness.”</p>

<p>Many of their countrymen have shown less hesitation, sinking their self-directed retirement funds into apartments far from home, even in a country that they have never visited.</p>

<p> They have bought so much property in England, Spain and in countries in Eastern Europe that they have been dubbed Crispies — short for cash-rich Irish seeking properties in Europe.</p>

<p> Irish newspapers feed the obsession with weekly sections filled with articles about far-flung markets. A recent edition of The Irish Times carried one article about buying apartments in Sofia, Bulgaria.</p>

<p> By comparison, Manhattan, with a well-established set of rules for buying and selling apartments, appears to be an island of stability, Mr. McCann said.</p>

<p> “It’s not like you’re investing in old Communist countries where landowners have only recently received title to their property,” Mr. McCann said.</p>

<p> Still, not everybody in the real estate business in Manhattan sees it as a sure thing. William Fegan, a partner with a real estate development company, Tribeach Holdings in New York, said he feared that many Irish buyers were too focused on the potential rental income and not enough on all of the other costs of owning an apartment in New York.</p>

<p> “For the life of me I haven’t been able to figure it out,” Mr. Fegan said. “If I was to advise them, I’d probably tell them not to do it. Carrying an apartment in New York City is an expensive proposition.”</p>


 
<p>Here's a rant from the Financial Times:</p>

<p><a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/86e7d4fe-9f68-11dc-8031-0000779fd2ac.html">America must live with being a bargain basement</a></p>

<p>"If US consumers had saved more, spent less, and filled up their SUVs less frequently – and US financial institutions had not embarked on their own credit binge – they might not be in such an embarrassing condition. But they acted as they did and must live with a weak dollar..."</p>
 
<a href="http://cartoonbox.slate.com/chipbok/"><img width="500" border="0" alt="" src="http://content.cartoonbox.slate.com/?feature=866089c0e414dd012f28313799d40423" /></a>
 
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