The Best Real Estate Market Commentary Ever

IrvineRenter_IHB

IrvineRenter_IHB

New member
<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-cuRdIYrKE0">CNN - House Call - Credit Crisis - 09.01.07</a>




Peter Schiff explains the housing/credit bubble in very simple terms.
 
Oh, this is great stuff. The interviewer obviously hated what he was saying...she wouldn't even let him finish when he said there's plenty of available rental housing - no no no she protested, people are already homeless! Maybe she's a realtor on the side?
 
<p>I heard a lot of opinion, but not much explanation other than placing the blame squarely on Greenspan.</p>

<p>I'm skeptical of those that blame everything on the government, and in the same breath say that the government is powerless to do anything, any action taken by the government will only make things worse, yadda yadda yadda. A tad contradictory IMHO.</p>
 
The Federal Reserve is not part of the government. The government and the Federal Reserve are to blame, and anything the Federal Reserve or the government does will make things worse. It is not contradictory.<p>


On Schiff and the interviewer - It seems like whenever someone says that home prices will be heading south, someone in the room gets upset.<p>


Like so many, the interviewer at one point, asks how low will prices go, or says what Schiff previously said on how low. I read many posts in here on low prices will go ... 10%, 20% 30%, 40, rent equivalent, income affordability level. Here is my take, and it worth what you are paying for it.<p>


Forget how low prices will go. Only one out of fifty people can catch the bottom, and that one will be from luck. Forget the bottom. Forget trying to catch a falling knife. Wait until prices are heading up and you will know when the bottom was. Sure, you will miss out on a few percentage points, but so what? Wait until prices are heading up with a little patience. Stop guessing. The bottom is unrecognizable. The trend is your friend.
 
<p>If my memory serves me correctly, at the beginning of the year he was being interviewed on TV along with a couple of wind bag housing bulls and they were laughing at him.</p>

<p>I think they should invite those clowns back for another discussion along with him and replay the previous interview beforehand!</p>
 
<p>The lady insists that all foreclosured people are "homeless" people, they can rent a residence, but they are still "homeless" people. All renters are homeless people... </p>

<p> </p>
 
<p>Funny how Schiff has been right. OC in August will see about 1400 NODs, over 500 NTSs and nearly 500 trustee sales. Every month it just keeps getting worse. If NODs keep increasing by 20% and the 40% conversion ratio from NOD to foreclosure continues in the first half of 2008 OC will have 4655 foreclosures. 2008 could make 1996's records look silly.</p>

<p>It's too bad the Fed reserve isn't a people elected official. Then we could bring back Volcker to clean up this mess. Sometimes you just need to deal with the pain.</p>

<p>By the way rumor has it CFC may layoff a huge chunk of people. It looks like my September puts could go green after all. Of course the last thing we need is more layoffs. </p>
 
<p><a href="http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/20603560/">Pending home sales hits 6 year low. Lowest since the index began in 2001.</a></p>

<p>What does Lawrence Yun, the NAR chief economist, have to say about it? "<strong>It's temporary!</strong>"</p>
 
At some point, sales will be so close to zero that they can only go up. Lawrence Yun will, of course, use that occasion to call the bottom.
 
"It's difficult to fully account for mortgage disruptions in the index, and our members are telling us some sales contracts aren't closing because mortgage commitments have been falling through at the last moment,'' the realtor's economist Lawrence Yun said. But he added that while some concerns remain, <strong>since mid-August the market appears to be stabilizing</strong>.





WTF!!!!!!!! Mid-August? Isn't that when that small issue about the "credit crunch" occurred?





"Yun said the bulk of the problems are with jumbo loans and subprime borrowers, but there are no serious problems for the majority of buyers qualifying for conventional financing."





So, Bill Gates and Warren Buffett will have no problems buying a house.





<a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/20603691">www.cnbc.com/id/20603691</a>
 
<p>So to be clear, the market is temporarily stabilizing? Or is it stabilizing in its temporariness? </p>

<p>Either way, its a good time to Buy <strong>OR</strong> Sell, right? <strong>Right?!</strong></p>
 
In keeping with IrvineRenter's musical theme:





Where have you gone David Lereah? Our nation turns its lonely eyes to you. . .





Old version: <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1_-NBWrh_8">www.youtube.com/watch</a>





New Version: <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o6KLpIDbfTw">www.youtube.com/watch</a>





Looks like a tiger can't changed its stripes. . .After recanting all of his propaganda from years past, David Lereah is back at it again.


<a href="http://marketplace.publicradio.org/shows/2007/09/05/AM200709051.html?refid=0">marketplace.publicradio.org/shows/2007/09/05/AM200709051.html</a>


My favorite quote from Mr. Lereah





"We need to be making loans to families that have the financial wherewithal to buy these homes. <strong>That's the American dream, is homeownership. And now we're keeping families out of that dream, because we've overreacted to this boom-bust cycle that we find ourselves in.</strong>"





Damn you IrvineRenter. . . you are keeping people away from the American dream. . . yes you.
 
<p>It is make or break time yet again for the low end American consumer as shown here by the WMT chart:</p>

<p><img alt="" src="http://data.moneycentral.msn.com/scripts/chrtsrv.dll?symbol=wmt&E1=0&LPR=2&C1=0&C2=5&D5=0&D2=0&D4=1&DD=1&width=612&height=258&CE=0&CF=0" /></p>
 
graphix-





I concur with rumors that Countrywide is going to be laying off more than 10,000 employees.





<em> "We need to be making loans to families that have the financial wherewithal to buy these homes. <strong>That's the American dream, is homeownership. And now we're keeping families out of that dream, because we've overreacted to this boom-bust cycle that we find ourselves in."</strong></em>





Last night I dreamed that I was driving my new Ferrari F430 Spider, but when I woke up it was gone!!! Then I realized that a dream is a dream and I actually need to work my ass off if I ever want to own a car like that. Maybe they'll come out with a neg am loan for my Ferrari!
 
"Maybe they'll come out with a neg am loan for my Ferrari!"





Its fairly easy to get a 10-year loan for exotics thus lowering the monthly payment to somewhere near the rent for a 3bd condo.
 
I found the website of Schiff's company. . .it's got videos of all his appears on TV. My favorite is the December 31, 2006 Fox News Clip between Schiff, Ben Stein (Anyone, Anyone?), some lady, Tony Little (Tom Adkins) and one pompous jerk (Norman).





<a href="http://www.europac.net/video.asp">www.europac.net/video.asp</a>
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top