Summer 2021 - BP $/sqft prediction

[Cornflakes]

Currently BP  homes are going for anywhere between $400-$440 per sqft. With ever increasing MR and newer communities offering ever smaller homes, what is your prediction for price range of BP homes five years from today?

 

[irvineshadow]

It's hard to say, I guess it comes down to whether you are a bull or bear on Irvine; or if you believe the economy is built on a solid foundation or not.  BP prices are consistent with Irvine prices,so Beacon Park should go as Irvine goes for the next 5 years, more or less.

Personally, I expect flat to positive growth.  Mortgages seems hard to come by right now, and if that doesn't change it implies to me that people with solid finances are buying homes (unless they are FCBs).

 

[jbot747]

Historically, every 7-10 years there has been a bubble in SoCal realestate going back since we got off the gold standard over 40 years ago. We are now 7-8 years out from the last crash, and have probably less than 3 years before the next >30% correction. Unless more companies that give stock options, pay top $$$ for talent move to Irvine (and the tech bubble doesn't burst) I think growth will be flat, or limited to whatever inflation is until the next calamity / correction happens.

Of course they could introduce NIRP, or more QE and keep inflating this bubble for years, but I am guessing it will start correcting before president elect douche bag, or turd sandwich takes office

 

[usctrojancpa]

Historically, every 7-10 years there has been a bubble in SoCal realestate going back since we got off the gold standard over 40 years ago. We are now 7-8 years out from the last crash, and have probably less than 3 years before the next >30% correction. Unless more companies that give stock options, pay top $$$ for talent move to Irvine (and the tech bubble doesn't burst) I think growth will be flat, or limited to whatever inflation is until the next calamity / correction happens.

Of course they could introduce NIRP, or more QE and keep inflating this bubble for years, but I am guessing it will start correcting before president elect douche bag, or turd sandwich takes office

What will cause a 30% price drop in Irvine home prices? 

 

[Cornflakes]

Historically, every 7-10 years there has been a bubble in SoCal realestate going back since we got off the gold standard over 40 years ago. We are now 7-8 years out from the last crash, and have probably less than 3 years before the next >30% correction. Unless more companies that give stock options, pay top $$$ for talent move to Irvine (and the tech bubble doesn't burst) I think growth will be flat, or limited to whatever inflation is until the next calamity / correction happens.

Of course they could introduce NIRP, or more QE and keep inflating this bubble for years, but I am guessing it will start correcting before president elect douche bag, or turd sandwich takes office

What will cause a 30% price drop in Irvine home prices?

Wishful thinking.

I know some ppl who are convinced that nationwide RE bottom is coming in 2018. When I asked why, the answer was that it has been going up for few years and its about time and that is when they want  to buy home.

 

[lnc]

Historically, every 7-10 years there has been a bubble in SoCal realestate going back since we got off the gold standard over 40 years ago. We are now 7-8 years out from the last crash, and have probably less than 3 years before the next >30% correction. Unless more companies that give stock options, pay top $$$ for talent move to Irvine (and the tech bubble doesn't burst) I think growth will be flat, or limited to whatever inflation is until the next calamity / correction happens.

Of course they could introduce NIRP, or more QE and keep inflating this bubble for years, but I am guessing it will start correcting before president elect douche bag, or turd sandwich takes office

What will cause a 30% price drop in Irvine home prices?

Wishful thinking.

I know some ppl who are convinced that nationwide RE bottom is coming in 2018. When I asked why, the answer was that it has been going up for few years and its about time and that is when they want  to buy home.

Totally agree.  Many that predict a housing downturn in a near turn but they are only speculative and no solid data to back up their claim.

With that great housing bubble 10 years ago, Irvine's housing price only drop about 20% on average where some city like Las Vegas that drop close to 45% IIRC  If there is a national wide housing down turn coming up, and a typical housing down turn happened which is about  10% drop on average national wide, how much would Irvine drop?  Probably not much, certainly not 20% like during the last housing bubble and definitely no where near 30%.

 

[sgip]

No one can predict at this stage where prices will be in a week, much less 2021. Too many factors in  play.

1) Look at Vancouver home prices as an example of government intervention on speculating/money laundering - something that occurs in OC as well. Perhaps at some point in time this might happen here.

2) If the PRC really clamps down on capital flight, there's a price hit a comin'

3) I've seen a terrific number of homes sold to borrowers with significant day trading income. 2009-2016 has been very good for some, but could it continue through 2021? If not, what happens to that section of the RE economy?

4) Coming minimum wage hikes that impact hiring, Affordable Health Care price increases, and the Student Loan time bomb will impact FTHB's

5) If inflation becomes so pronounced that the Fed is compelled to push rates higher, deflating assets, what might that do to RE prices?

6) Whomever wins in November, either the Short Fingered Vulgarian or the Scabrous Gorgon, expect big asset moves November through December as wealth repositions for 2017 tax policy changes.

With so many uncertainties in the next 12 months, it's certainly fun to speculate, but I'm not willing to commit to any home value proposition so far out in time this go round.

My .02c

Soylent Green Is People

 

[eyephone]

No one can predict at this stage where prices will be in a week, much less 2021. Too many factors in  play.

1) Look at Vancouver home prices as an example of government intervention on speculating/money laundering - something that occurs in OC as well. Perhaps at some point in time this might happen here.

2) If the PRC really clamps down on capital flight, there's a price hit a comin'

3) I've seen a terrific number of homes sold to borrowers with significant day trading income. 2009-2016 has been very good for some, but could it continue through 2021? If not, what happens to that section of the RE economy?

4) Coming minimum wage hikes that impact hiring, Affordable Health Care price increases, and the Student Loan time bomb will impact FTHB's

5) If inflation becomes so pronounced that the Fed is compelled to push rates higher, deflating assets, what might that do to RE prices?

6) Whomever wins in November, either the Short Fingered Vulgarian or the Scabrous Gorgon, expect big asset moves November through December as wealth repositions for 2017 tax policy changes.

With so many uncertainties in the next 12 months, it's certainly fun to speculate, but I'm not willing to commit to any home value proposition so far out in time this go round.

My .02c

Soylent Green Is People

Add the following: TPP trade deal with congress, the presidential election (if someone wins the election he wants to add a terrif on imported goods, the cost to round up the people staying here is in the billions, he also wants to revoke nafta trade deal?), and finally the interest rates (what the fed is going to do?)

 

[samleeiii]

When you say "significant day trading income" how much are you talking? Just personally curious if you don't mind me asking.

No one can predict at this stage where prices will be in a week, much less 2021. Too many factors in  play.

1) Look at Vancouver home prices as an example of government intervention on speculating/money laundering - something that occurs in OC as well. Perhaps at some point in time this might happen here.

2) If the PRC really clamps down on capital flight, there's a price hit a comin'

3) I've seen a terrific number of homes sold to borrowers with significant day trading income. 2009-2016 has been very good for some, but could it continue through 2021? If not, what happens to that section of the RE economy?

4) Coming minimum wage hikes that impact hiring, Affordable Health Care price increases, and the Student Loan time bomb will impact FTHB's

5) If inflation becomes so pronounced that the Fed is compelled to push rates higher, deflating assets, what might that do to RE prices?

6) Whomever wins in November, either the Short Fingered Vulgarian or the Scabrous Gorgon, expect big asset moves November through December as wealth repositions for 2017 tax policy changes.

With so many uncertainties in the next 12 months, it's certainly fun to speculate, but I'm not willing to commit to any home value proposition so far out in time this go round.

My .02c

Soylent Green Is People

 

[sgip]

On a wide average, $250k net py. Some more, some less. Quite a few Corona Del Mar / Newport Coast closings with day trading as primary income source.  A true "house of cards" IMHO as once the magic formula breaks down, what will these folks live on? Very reminiscent of the Quick Loan Funding / WAMU Option ARM churners who make $20k per month after month suddenly found themselves without a chair once the music stopped in 2007

 

[samleeiii]

Thanks for the info, appreciate it.

 

[Cornflakes]

On a wide average, $250k net py. Some more, some less. Quite a few Corona Del Mar / Newport Coast closings with day trading as primary income source.  A true "house of cards" IMHO as once the magic formula breaks down, what will these folks live on? Very reminiscent of the Quick Loan Funding / WAMU Option ARM churners who make $20k per month after month suddenly found themselves without a chair once the music stopped in 2007

$20k a month is decent income for day trading. If we assume that as 1% return (annualized at over 12%), those champs would be shoveling 2M portfolio day in day out. Now that is not a small number.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

2) If the PRC really clamps down on capital flight, there's a price hit a comin'

I wonder how they can really "clamp down". Reading the article in the Asian Irvine thread, it's because of the instability in China that they are investing more in Irvine homes.

Seems to me that if you have the money in China, you can find a way around the government to get it to the US. Just like execs in the US can loophole their income around taxes.

 

[renter1]

What about the cemetery that is going in adj to beacon park- do you guys think that will affect home prices?

 

[eyephone]

What about the cemetery that is going in adj to beacon park- do you guys think that will affect home prices?

Will effect the demand for that area, which possibly effect the price. Some people would rather live by trailer homes near Eastwood, then by BP.

#tossup

 

[lnc]

What about the cemetery that is going in adj to beacon park- do you guys think that will affect home prices?

I have a feeling that cemetery will never get build and even if it does get build, I think the higher MR here will have more impact than the cemetery nearby.

But who knows.  When the GP actually get build and completed, it might be a big selling point for future buyers and they are willing to pay top dollar and higher MR to live in a community right next to the GP whether or not there's a VA cemetery.

 

[hello]

No one can predict at this stage where prices will be in a week, much less 2021. Too many factors in  play.

1) Look at Vancouver home prices as an example of government intervention on speculating/money laundering - something that occurs in OC as well. Perhaps at some point in time this might happen here.

2) If the PRC really clamps down on capital flight, there's a price hit a comin'

3) I've seen a terrific number of homes sold to borrowers with significant day trading income. 2009-2016 has been very good for some, but could it continue through 2021? If not, what happens to that section of the RE economy?

4) Coming minimum wage hikes that impact hiring, Affordable Health Care price increases, and the Student Loan time bomb will impact FTHB's

5) If inflation becomes so pronounced that the Fed is compelled to push rates higher, deflating assets, what might that do to RE prices?

6) Whomever wins in November, either the Short Fingered Vulgarian or the Scabrous Gorgon, expect big asset moves November through December as wealth repositions for 2017 tax policy changes.

With so many uncertainties in the next 12 months, it's certainly fun to speculate, but I'm not willing to commit to any home value proposition so far out in time this go round.

My .02c

Soylent Green Is People

becareful... many on this forum may accuse you of claiming the market is going to crash after writing a post like this.

 

[eyephone]

No one can predict at this stage where prices will be in a week, much less 2021. Too many factors in  play.

1) Look at Vancouver home prices as an example of government intervention on speculating/money laundering - something that occurs in OC as well. Perhaps at some point in time this might happen here.

2) If the PRC really clamps down on capital flight, there's a price hit a comin'

3) I've seen a terrific number of homes sold to borrowers with significant day trading income. 2009-2016 has been very good for some, but could it continue through 2021? If not, what happens to that section of the RE economy?

4) Coming minimum wage hikes that impact hiring, Affordable Health Care price increases, and the Student Loan time bomb will impact FTHB's

5) If inflation becomes so pronounced that the Fed is compelled to push rates higher, deflating assets, what might that do to RE prices?

6) Whomever wins in November, either the Short Fingered Vulgarian or the Scabrous Gorgon, expect big asset moves November through December as wealth repositions for 2017 tax policy changes.

With so many uncertainties in the next 12 months, it's certainly fun to speculate, but I'm not willing to commit to any home value proposition so far out in time this go round.

My .02c

Soylent Green Is People

becareful... many on this forum may accuse you of claiming the market is going to crash after writing a post like this.

It's already known, so many factors that are unknown.

 

[jbot747]

Historically, every 7-10 years there has been a bubble in SoCal realestate going back since we got off the gold standard over 40 years ago. We are now 7-8 years out from the last crash, and have probably less than 3 years before the next >30% correction. Unless more companies that give stock options, pay top $$$ for talent move to Irvine (and the tech bubble doesn't burst) I think growth will be flat, or limited to whatever inflation is until the next calamity / correction happens.

Of course they could introduce NIRP, or more QE and keep inflating this bubble for years, but I am guessing it will start correcting before president elect douche bag, or turd sandwich takes office

What will cause a 30% price drop in Irvine home prices?

I think @Soylent provided a decent list.

 

[sgip]

User Hello, If only I had such god like powers....

All I'm saying is that with any kind of speculation, it's best to consider both sides of the discussion before making a commitment to purchase and at no time do I believe it wise to purchase based on possible value improvement or even price stability. As once well said by Heraclitus, "The only constant is change".