Stock Market Day-Trading Discussion Thread

[quote author="graphrix" date=1239202341][quote author="PANDA" date=1239180779][quote author="PANDA" date=1234913348]UpperLowerClass, Will you be my new Kungfu Master?



Panda is back in DXO@$2.01... Yahoooo!!!!</blockquote>


UpperLowerClass, did you sell out of DXO without telling me? I am still holding on to my DXOs. Should i hold or sell? Hahahaha..</blockquote>


Glad to see Panda back. I'm not kidding. I am sincerely glad to see him back.



And this is not to make fun of him, but it is a sign to short FXI. Because his timing is impeccable, look at the chart, look at how the Asian markets are trading right now. It's just too ironic to ignore, and I had to point it out. Love you Panda, your timing of your return is too funny. I hope you make some money from it.</blockquote>
Should we call that the "panda" indicator? haha Yeah, asian markets look at a little frothy to me.
 
Today looks and smells like an up date...I did the following two trades yesterday...



40 BAC May $10 calls bought @ $.46

20 AA April $7.50 calls bought @ $.68



I'll be doing the following trades this morning before work...



Buy 20 SSO April $19 calls

Sell 40 BAC April $9 calls

Sell 20 BAC April $6 puts



Looks like there is some support in the S&P around 810-815 and then the further support at 780 so I may sell 10-20 SPY April $77 puts.
 
[quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1239220814]Today looks and smells like an up date...I did the following two trades yesterday...



40 BAC May $10 calls bought @ $.46

20 AA April $7.50 calls bought @ $.68



I'll be doing the following trades this morning before work...



Buy 20 SSO April $19 calls

Sell 40 BAC April $9 calls

Sell 20 BAC April $6 puts



Looks like there is some support in the S&P around 810-815 and then the further support at 780 so I may sell 10-20 SPY April $77 puts.</blockquote>
Sold the SSO calls and AA calls earlier this morning for a nice little profit. Still holding on to the BAC stuff.
 
Given Wells profit release today, what is your collective take on the rest of the big banks earnings? If the banks post profits, I'd have to think that the bulls will lead the charge for a good while...
 
Wells made a good move with their December "throw in the sink" write off but it will be the change of mark to market rules which will smoke and mirror the earnings going forward
 
BAC is giving me a nose-bleed. Debating what to do. Earlier this morning I bought some April puts, just in case. Now I'm debating... write calls... yet, I'm just not feeling we'll see much of big drop. I might just hang on and see where this goes.
 
[quote author="morekaos" date=1239330767]Wells made a good move with their December "throw in the sink" write off but it will be the change of mark to market rules which will smoke and mirror the earnings going forward</blockquote>
Agreed, they threw everything into the pile that they could and their auditors would allow them to. Remember something, auditors come in to due the heavy work once a year at fiscal year end and just do very light analytical testing for the quarterly stuff so it's easy for companies to manage their earnings a bit during the non-fiscal year end quarters. Just food for thought. Like I have mentioned to some people already, I think we drift upward into the Summer before we come crashing down in the fall/winter. This slight of hand that the banks are playing will only last so long due to the mounting mortgage, auto, student, commercial real estate, small business, and corporate loan losses.
 
[quote author="SoCal78" date=1239331002]BAC is giving me a nose-bleed. Debating what to do. Earlier this morning I bought some April puts, just in case. Now I'm debating... write calls... yet, I'm just not feeling we'll see much of big drop. I might just hang on and see where this goes.</blockquote>
I don't think BAC drifts down too much...this baby is heading into the lower teens (note to BV...remember us little guys when you buy that Cystal Cove home for cash). The reason why I sold the April $6 puts was there was HUGE support at $6 so I knew it wasn't going below that.
 
thinkin rally @ least until all the rest of the financials report earnings. still looking for the tipping point and what will cause this to turn into back into the bear it should be.
 
[quote author="BlackVault CM2" date=1239332962]I hired couple of people to tape $20 dollar bills together and replace my toilet paper.</blockquote>


Ahhhh... you're being modest, it was $100 dollar bills. And, it was very kind of you to give Deuce and Shevy some work. Gawd knows the lease market doesn't pay as well as the resale market. You're a real stand up guy BV. Glad to see you giving back to the IHB community to those in need.
 
Picked something up on my radar...huge out-of-the-money buying activity on the $10 April and May option contracts for TTWO while there was huge put activity on the $17.50 ERTS May puts. Is ERTS gonna trying to buy TTWO again? I dunno, but on Monday I'll be picking up some May $10 calls on TTWO and some May $17.50 puts on ERTS. There there is no merger and they move together up or down, I'll make money...if ERTS annouces that they are buying TTWO then it's a double bingo hit. I'll throw some of the gains I've made this week at this play.
 
[quote author="morekaos" date=1239330767]Wells made a good move with their December "throw in the sink" write off but it will be the change of mark to market rules which will smoke and mirror the earnings going forward</blockquote>


Not only that, but you also have to consider the CDS payouts they/counterpartys are getting from the unwinding of AIG. I have discussed this with some great minds, and they agree, that this will effect Q1 earnings. Look at it this way, if BofA wrote down the CDS to $0.50 on the dollar... how much profit would they show now from it if they were paid $1.00 as AIG/guberment is paying them? Even if they only wrote down the CDS to $0.80 on the dollar... it looks like they will be getting paid a hefty profit on the CDS now...



http://i43.tinypic.com/29bod5.png



Don't get me started on the REOs that they took back at a fake bid (of pennies on the dollar) for far less than they are worth and selling them for a profit to suckers as an REO, or the homes they let go at the auction for what looks like $0.50 on the dollar when they purchased them for $0.20 on the dollar.



The write downs are going to create a profit now. They just know how to move the slight of hand on everyone, and they will and can continue to do this.
 
[quote author="graphrix" date=1239548642][quote author="morekaos" date=1239330767]Wells made a good move with their December "throw in the sink" write off but it will be the change of mark to market rules which will smoke and mirror the earnings going forward</blockquote>


Not only that, but you also have to consider the CDS payouts they/counterpartys are getting from the unwinding of AIG. I have discussed this with some great minds, and they agree, that this will effect Q1 earnings. Look at it this way, if BofA wrote down the CDS to $0.50 on the dollar... how much profit would they show now from it if they were paid $1.00 as AIG/guberment is paying them? Even if they only wrote down the CDS to $0.80 on the dollar... it looks like they will be getting paid a hefty profit on the CDS now...



http://i43.tinypic.com/29bod5.png



Don't get me started on the REOs that they took back at a fake bid (of pennies on the dollar) for far less than they are worth and selling them for a profit to suckers as an REO, or the homes they let go at the auction for what looks like $0.50 on the dollar when they purchased them for $0.20 on the dollar.



The write downs are going to create a profit now. They just know how to move the slight of hand on everyone, and they will and can continue to do this.</blockquote>
Basically anytime we hear AIG requiring more capital from the taxpayer, we can safely assume that the money is going to mostly banks to settle out CDS positions (don't you love how the taxpayers are propping earnings for the banks?). That is the same kind of joke as the banks performing their own stress tests.



Like I said, you can get away with a lot more during non-fiscal year-end quarters in terms of the auditors. And think about this, as an auditor you will give companies a lot more room to be more conservative (i.e. take huge write-downs and lower fair values estimates) than you would to underestimate losses or overstate revenue (greater chance of litigation against the CPA firms when these things happen). Just food for thought from your former neighborhood auditor. ;)
 
<a href="http://www.fdic.gov/llp/comments/llp108.pdf">From: Benjamin N. Dover III</a> [mailto:benn.dover.iii@gmail.com]

Sent: Sunday, April 05, 2009 3:48 PM

To: LLPComments

Subject: Legacy Loans Program

Ms. Bair:

I'm confident that I speak for most Americans when I note that the proposed PPIP

is grossly unfair to the banks, investors and asset managers. This sweetheart deal for

taxpayers would penalize banks for finding themselves in an unforeseeable

predicament for which they bear no responsibility. It would also require selfless

investors and asset managers to bear an unconscionable portion of the risk in return for

minimal reward. If we're going to get through this crisis, everyone's going to have pitch

in and sacrifice -- and that includes the taxpayer.

So, unless you want the global financial system to be Lehmaned again, I suggest you

change the terms of the program as follows:

1. Given that the underlying loans are sound, performing and cash flow positive, they

should be priced at the banks' "mark-to-model" valuations plus, of course, a premium in

order to induce the banks to make the sacrifice of parting with these valuable legacies. I

suggest that market-driven price discovery occur in a range of 120-140% of par

depending on the specific assets at issue.

2. The Government would put up 100% of the capital plus 100-1 leverage in the form of

non-recourse financing funded by a combination of the FDIC fund for deposit protection

and the Social Security endowment. (Medicare and Medicaid could also be asked to chip

in as necessary -- I see no reason why the poor and elderly should not pay their fair share

here).

3. Once bought, these assets would then be gifted to large hedge funds and private equity

firms. In order to properly allocate risk, they would be forced to accept 100% of any

profit and 0% of any loss. (And remember: hold your ground if the investors try to

haggle over this.)

4. A small number of asset managers should be selected in secret to manage the assets in

return for guaranteed fees to be paid by the Government. Typically, hedge funds are paid

2% of the value of the assets under management plus 20% any gains. That seems fair

here. Because investors will be entitled to 100% of any gains, the Government will need

to come up with the extra 20% for the asset managers. (I suggest diminishing handouts

to socialist programs like Head Start and AIDS-research organizations.)

5. Obviously, you'll need to guarantee all parties that in exchange for rescuing the

taxpayer they won't be subject to any Government meddling before, during or after the

transactions are completed. I suggest you lobby Congress to pass a law prohibiting it and

all regulators (you too, Ms. Bair) from engaging in any interference or exercising any

oversight over the program or the parties involved. In addition, Congress should grant a

pre-emptive amnesty and pardon to all parties for any wrongdoing that they later may be

unfairly accused of in connection with the program. (Remember, contrary to what certain

populist muckrakers may claim, "gaming the system" is just another word for "nothing to

lose".) I hope it goes without saying that none of the fees or profits resulting from the

PPIP should be subject to any ordinary (much less special) taxes.

Finally, I think it would be appropriate for you, Mr. Geithner and Mr. Bernanke to send

letters of gratitude to all parties involved for their generous effort to bail out the

American taxpayer. Their magnanimity, propriety and responsible leadership during this

crisis should be examples to every American.

Benjamin N. Dover III

benn.doverIII@gmail.com
 
[quote author="morekaos" date=1238015553][quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1237943656][quote author="awgee" date=1237940638][quote author="BlackVault CM2" date=1237933262]Never underestimate the power of the bull. One must always be friends with the bull. However, being friends with the bear is equally important. I'm friends with both, but they don't know that. The bull thinks I'm only friends with him, and the bear thinks I'm only friends with him.



Actually, I pretend I'm friends with both...I have no love for either.



EDIT: If you take a look at a 20 or 30 day chart of SPY (for a better view), you can see exactly where this market is going today...rarely do I see a more telling direction.</blockquote>


Most defintely SPX has broken out of the downtrend. But is it going up or sideways short term?

I am looking for a huge bear market rally; something that takes the DOW to 10,000 or 12,000 over a six month period, fast and furious. This may be the start. I dunno.





Honestly, I know nothing about Alcoa, International Paper, or Dow Chemical. I am a horrible long stock picker.

But, I am a short seller, and my experience with GE is that it is a zero. It is impossible to value their assets accurately, but my guess is that much of their paper is marketable at 50 cents on the dollar and in a few years it will be 10 cents on the dollar.





As a side, my mom inherited a boatload of GE awhile back. I had her sell it immediately, before it even was out of the deceased's estate and in my mom's name, @ $35.77 per share.</blockquote>
Again I agree with you...GE Capital will bring GE down to its knees. I personally know that GE Capital did some crazy commercial real estate loans during the good old days (including equity and mezz investments).</blockquote>


I would put forward that $38.00 to $5.00 is exactly that...on your knees. I think they can still stand up. I was not a buyer at 35 but at 6 bucks I am in. That risk reward looks palatalble to me.</blockquote>


Did you buy at the bottom, $6.00?





http://www.businessinsider.com/henry-blodget-living-on-planet-ge-2009-4
 
[quote author="aw" date=1239571777][quote author="morekaos" date=1238015553][quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1237943656][quote author="aw" date=1237940638][quote author="BlackVault CM2" date=1237933262]Never underestimate the power of the bull. One must always be friends with the bull. However, being friends with the bear is equally important. I'm friends with both, but they don't know that. The bull thinks I'm only friends with him, and the bear thinks I'm only friends with him.



Actually, I pretend I'm friends with both...I have no love for either.



EDIT: If you take a look at a 20 or 30 day chart of SPY (for a better view), you can see exactly where this market is going today...rarely do I see a more telling direction.</blockquote>


Most defintely SPX has broken out of the downtrend. But is it going up or sideways short term?

I am looking for a huge bear market rally; something that takes the DOW to 10,000 or 12,000 over a six month period, fast and furious. This may be the start. I dunno.





Honestly, I know nothing about Alcoa, International Paper, or Dow Chemical. I am a horrible long stock picker.

But, I am a short seller, and my experience with GE is that it is a zero. It is impossible to value their assets accurately, but my guess is that much of their paper is marketable at 50 cents on the dollar and in a few years it will be 10 cents on the dollar.





As a side, my mom inherited a boatload of GE awhile back. I had her sell it immediately, before it even was out of the deceased's estate and in my mom's name, @ $35.77 per share.</blockquote>
Again I agree with you...GE Capital will bring GE down to its knees. I personally know that GE Capital did some crazy commercial real estate loans during the good old days (including equity and mezz investments).</blockquote>


I would put forward that $38.00 to $5.00 is exactly that...on your knees. I think they can still stand up. I was not a buyer at 35 but at 6 bucks I am in. That risk reward looks palatalble to me.</blockquote>


Did you buy at the bottom, $6.00?





http://www.businessinsider.com/henry-blod-living-on-planet-ge-2009-4</blockquote>


I did. Still hold it. I'm sorry, I know it is a bit of "shooting the messenger" but I just can't put much credence in what Henry Blodget says these days. That guy single-handedly ruined allot of people in 1999.
 
[quote author="morekaos" date=1239573493][quote author="aw" date=1239571777][quote author="morekaos" date=1238015553][quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1237943656][quote author="aw" date=1237940638][quote author="BlackVault CM2" date=1237933262]Never underestimate the power of the bull. One must always be friends with the bull. However, being friends with the bear is equally important. I'm friends with both, but they don't know that. The bull thinks I'm only friends with him, and the bear thinks I'm only friends with him.



Actually, I pretend I'm friends with both...I have no love for either.



EDIT: If you take a look at a 20 or 30 day chart of SPY (for a better view), you can see exactly where this market is going today...rarely do I see a more telling direction.</blockquote>


Most defintely SPX has broken out of the downtrend. But is it going up or sideways short term?

I am looking for a huge bear market rally; something that takes the DOW to 10,000 or 12,000 over a six month period, fast and furious. This may be the start. I dunno.





Honestly, I know nothing about Alcoa, International Paper, or Dow Chemical. I am a horrible long stock picker.

But, I am a short seller, and my experience with GE is that it is a zero. It is impossible to value their assets accurately, but my guess is that much of their paper is marketable at 50 cents on the dollar and in a few years it will be 10 cents on the dollar.





As a side, my mom inherited a boatload of GE awhile back. I had her sell it immediately, before it even was out of the deceased's estate and in my mom's name, @ $35.77 per share.</blockquote>
Again I agree with you...GE Capital will bring GE down to its knees. I personally know that GE Capital did some crazy commercial real estate loans during the good old days (including equity and mezz investments).</blockquote>


I would put forward that $38.00 to $5.00 is exactly that...on your knees. I think they can still stand up. I was not a buyer at 35 but at 6 bucks I am in. That risk reward looks palatalble to me.</blockquote>


Did you buy at the bottom, $6.00?





http://www.businessinsider.com/henry-blod-living-on-planet-ge-2009-4</blockquote>


I did. Still hold it. I'm sorry, I know it is a bit of "shooting the messenger" but I just can't put much credence in what Henry Blodget says these days. That guy single-handedly ruined allot of people in 1999.</blockquote>


$6.00, that is some great timing.



Sorry, I know nothing about the author, Henry Blodget, of that article. What did he do?
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1239586827]$6.00, that is some great timing.



Sorry, I know nothing about the author, Henry Blodget, of that article. What did he do?</blockquote>


<a href="http://www.sec.gov/litigation/complaints/comp18115b.htm">Really, he should not be allowed to write about any equity, bond, or security ever again</a>. But, he has been rehabilitated... right. Maybe after you pay back $4mil. you are rehabilitated... <a href="http://www.sec.gov/news/press/2003-56.htm">The Securities and Exchange Commission, NASD and the New York Stock Exchange Permanently Bar Henry Blodget From the Securities Industry and Require $4 Million Payment</a>.



He really doesn't have the best track record, even if you take away the issues with the SEC.
 
[quote author="graphrix" date=1239588529][quote author="awgee" date=1239586827]$6.00, that is some great timing.



Sorry, I know nothing about the author, Henry Blodget, of that article. What did he do?</blockquote>


<a href="http://www.sec.gov/litigation/complaints/comp18115b.htm">Really, he should not be allowed to write about any equity, bond, or security ever again</a>. But, he has been rehabilitated... right. Maybe after you pay back $4mil. you are rehabilitated... <a href="http://www.sec.gov/news/press/2003-56.htm">The Securities and Exchange Commission, NASD and the New York Stock Exchange Permanently Bar Henry Blodget From the Securities Industry and Require $4 Million Payment</a>.



He really doesn't have the best track record, even if you take away the issues with the SEC.</blockquote>


He was the "Gary Watts" of the Internet bubble. Cheerleader extraordinaire, Pied Piper who led everyone off the cliff. There is a special place in hell for that guy. Why he still has a job is one reason why Wall Street is in trouble again.
 
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