Stock Market Day-Trading Discussion Thread

I sold 20 uncovered April $55 puts for $.55 on APOL today prior to their earnings release which is coming this afternoon. I'm also considering doing a call spread on RIMM tomorrow before they release earnings on Thursday afternoon (pick up 10 April $40 calls and sell 10 April $45 calls).
 
LOL! Oh how these pumptards/bashtards flip-flop...thankfully I'm trading well ahead of them...



<em>The story of the day was Meredith Whitney, who said she wouldn't want to short the banks into earnings season. Ms. Whitney has been dead right on the banks, and readers would be wise to pay attention to her reasoning: She argues that, because the banks have sacrificed their future in order to hit a home run this quarter. </em>



Of course it wouldn't be the bearish MW we know of, so she had to conclude with a statement at the end where she states that banks are sacrificing their future for a quarter...not that I care anyway since my trade is for the quarter!



<a href="http://www.minyanville.com/articles/C-jpm-bac-wfc-spx-STI/index/a/21954/from/yahoo">Full Report Here</a>
 
[quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1238555459]I sold 20 uncovered April $55 puts for $.55 on APOL today prior to their earnings release which is coming this afternoon. I'm also considering doing a call spread on RIMM tomorrow before they release earnings on Thursday afternoon (pick up 10 April $40 calls and sell 10 April $45 calls).</blockquote>


Why are the APOL out of money put premiums so high? Does the stock move in a volatile fashion?





I made a bulk of my fortune riding the banks down and riding the banks back up. But I don't want to be holding on to any financial stocks for a long term hold.
 
[quote author="Knife Catcher" date=1238560075][quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1238555459]I sold 20 uncovered April $55 puts for $.55 on APOL today prior to their earnings release which is coming this afternoon. I'm also considering doing a call spread on RIMM tomorrow before they release earnings on Thursday afternoon (pick up 10 April $40 calls and sell 10 April $45 calls).</blockquote>


Why are the APOL out of money put premiums so high? Does the stock move in a volatile fashion?





I made a bulk of my fortune riding the banks down and riding the banks back up. But I don't want to be holding on to any financial stocks for a long term hold.</blockquote>
The stock is somewhat volatile, but not to the extent that puts about $25 out-of-the-money should be trading at $.50 with a little over two weeks prior to expiration (one reason may be that it's an earnings report risk). The March low of the stock was in the $63-$64 range and these educational companies have very stable growing earnings in this economic backdrop...as pointed out by APOL beating earnings estimate by $.10 (although the stock is down $4 in after-hours but I think that's because the stock has run up a bit much into the earnings release).
 
[quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1238555459]I sold 20 uncovered April $55 puts for $.55 on APOL today prior to their earnings release which is coming this afternoon. I'm also considering doing a call spread on RIMM tomorrow before they release earnings on Thursday afternoon (pick up 10 April $40 calls and sell 10 April $45 calls).</blockquote>


Told you not to play with fire USC...You're fortunate that the premium (of them reporting earnings) crashed for both calls and puts that you are about break-even...maybe a slight loss. However, considering the delta has increased significantly, you are right in the sweet spot where the puts will start picking up major speed if it moves lower. (notice that the puts stayed around 40-50 cents for like a 10 dollar move, then a move from 67 to 63 a shared, moved the put from 50 cents to 85 cents.



The stock beat estimates...but their guidence was worth less than the paper I use to whipe my... We had a big day today, but the stock kept declining. What happens if we have a bad day tomorrow or so? I hope you brought vaselline if the stock moves 5-10 bucks lower...



I would hate to see you get burned...so close out your position if you haven't already and stop playing with fire just to make 1K!
 
[quote author="BlackVault CM2" date=1238647754][quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1238555459]I sold 20 uncovered April $55 puts for $.55 on APOL today prior to their earnings release which is coming this afternoon. I'm also considering doing a call spread on RIMM tomorrow before they release earnings on Thursday afternoon (pick up 10 April $40 calls and sell 10 April $45 calls).</blockquote>


Told you not to play with fire USC...You're fortunate that the premium (of them reporting earnings) crashed for both calls and puts that you are about break-even...maybe a slight loss. However, considering the delta has increased significantly, you are right in the sweet spot where the puts will start picking up major speed if it moves lower. (notice that the puts stayed around 40-50 cents for like a 10 dollar move, then a move from 67 to 63 a shared, moved the put from 50 cents to 85 cents.



The stock beat estimates...but their guidence was worth less than the paper I use to whipe my... We had a big day today, but the stock kept declining. What happens if we have a bad day tomorrow or so? I hope you brought vaselline if the stock moves 5-10 bucks lower...



I would hate to see you get burned...so close out your position if you haven't already and stop playing with fire just to make 1K!</blockquote>
No worries my man, I bought 20 April $60 puts in the morning for $1 so I'm up on the trade and covered. The stock bounced off its March intraday low of $63.34 and is trading at $67 in afterhours.
 
Well you bulls are having a great week, and day. I still think this run up is too far too fast. It's setting up nicely for a decline. We may see an almost repeat of 2008. I'm long oil and gasoline and have done well the past 12 weeks. This summer might see a continuation of the market recovery only to set up for a huge fall this Fall. Should be interesting.
 
[quote author="norcaljeff" date=1238723430]Well you bulls are having a great week, and day. I still think this run up is too far too fast. It's setting up nicely for a decline. We may see an almost repeat of 2008. I'm long oil and gasoline and have done well the past 12 weeks. This summer might see a continuation of the market recovery only to set up for a huge fall this Fall. Should be interesting.</blockquote>
Couldn't have said it better myself...people are getting the warm and fuzzies for no reason. We hit new lows in the Fall.
 
[quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1238726668][quote author="norcaljeff" date=1238723430]Well you bulls are having a great week, and day. I still think this run up is too far too fast. It's setting up nicely for a decline. We may see an almost repeat of 2008. I'm long oil and gasoline and have done well the past 12 weeks. This summer might see a continuation of the market recovery only to set up for a huge fall this Fall. Should be interesting.</blockquote>
Couldn't have said it better myself...people are getting the warm and fuzzies for no reason. We hit new lows in the Fall.</blockquote>


VIX says it all. Looks like it is going to close GREEN today, or basically flat....fairly amazing given the run up today. I think the market is about to snap. VIX really does not appear to be in a position for the rally to continue, and mark to market news is out. The market is completely government news driven right now, and I don't believe there is more on the immediate horizon in terms of government intervention announcements. Plus we are on the verge of earnings season. Seems hard to imagine that April will be a green month.



But of course anything can happen...
 
[quote author="BLUE FIRE" date=1238726861][quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1238726668][quote author="norcaljeff" date=1238723430]Well you bulls are having a great week, and day. I still think this run up is too far too fast. It's setting up nicely for a decline. We may see an almost repeat of 2008. I'm long oil and gasoline and have done well the past 12 weeks. This summer might see a continuation of the market recovery only to set up for a huge fall this Fall. Should be interesting.</blockquote>
Couldn't have said it better myself...people are getting the warm and fuzzies for no reason. We hit new lows in the Fall.</blockquote>


VIX says it all. Looks like it is going to close GREEN today, or basically flat....</blockquote>
Yup, great point....VIX rising while the rally was extending? Smells fishy to me...there's a reason why they can't bring the VIX down below 40. I'm picking up some SSO puts as we speak. The thing that made me a little uneasy and not willing to pick up some calls on SSO this morning was but the banks began sinking after their pop.
 
[quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1238726668][quote author="norcaljeff" date=1238723430]Well you bulls are having a great week, and day. I still think this run up is too far too fast. It's setting up nicely for a decline. We may see an almost repeat of 2008. I'm long oil and gasoline and have done well the past 12 weeks. This summer might see a continuation of the market recovery only to set up for a huge fall this Fall. Should be interesting.</blockquote>
Couldn't have said it better myself...people are getting the warm and fuzzies for no reason. We hit new lows in the Fall.</blockquote>


Does that mean we rally for another 5 months?
 
[quote author="BlackVault CM2" date=1238731247][quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1238726668][quote author="norcaljeff" date=1238723430]Well you bulls are having a great week, and day. I still think this run up is too far too fast. It's setting up nicely for a decline. We may see an almost repeat of 2008. I'm long oil and gasoline and have done well the past 12 weeks. This summer might see a continuation of the market recovery only to set up for a huge fall this Fall. Should be interesting.</blockquote>
Couldn't have said it better myself...people are getting the warm and fuzzies for no reason. We hit new lows in the Fall.</blockquote>


Does that mean we rally for another 5 months?</blockquote>
I think we rally a bit more and then probably go sideways (just a guess on my part). That call spread on RIMM is looking good so far.
 
Well RIMM along was up 23% today, inc a/h action. If that's not frothy I don't know what is. I do believe Rimm has been over due, but come on folks. Don't think the rally is still around for 5 months. BlackVault, you are in a much better position than I to comment on that (you were right to stay with the financials rally), I just find it interesting the parallels to last year. I was long oil this same time last year, watched it go from $60 to $50, then road it from $50 to $60 thinking that was a hell of a run. The saying "Sell in May and Go Away" has probably never been more true than it will be for 2009.
 
[quote author="norcaljeff" date=1238745059]Well RIMM along was up 23% today, inc a/h action. If that's not frothy I don't know what is. I do believe Rimm has been over due, but come on folks. Don't think the rally is still around for 5 months. BlackVault, you are in a much better position than I to comment on that (you were right to stay with the financials rally), I just find it interesting the parallels to last year. I was long oil this same time last year, watched it go from $60 to $50, then road it from $50 to $60 thinking that was a hell of a run. The saying "Sell in May and Go Away" has probably never been more true than it will be for 2009.</blockquote>


I have no emotion. I ride whatever wave I can catch. Everyday is a good day!



EDIT: I'll pop in to make comments here and there, but not allowed to make public comments or offer my opinion.
 
[quote author="BlackVault CM2" date=1238750542][quote author="norcaljeff" date=1238745059]Well RIMM along was up 23% today, inc a/h action. If that's not frothy I don't know what is. I do believe Rimm has been over due, but come on folks. Don't think the rally is still around for 5 months. BlackVault, you are in a much better position than I to comment on that (you were right to stay with the financials rally), I just find it interesting the parallels to last year. I was long oil this same time last year, watched it go from $60 to $50, then road it from $50 to $60 thinking that was a hell of a run. The saying "Sell in May and Go Away" has probably never been more true than it will be for 2009.</blockquote>


I have no emotion. I ride whatever wave I can catch. Everyday is a good day!



EDIT: I'll pop in to make comments here and there, but not allowed to make public comments or offer my opinion.</blockquote>


Are you Dylan Ratigan? LOL



I have no emotion either, just stating what I observe on a daily basis. Correct me if I'm wrong but I don't see any changes in the fundamentals. Unemployment is getting worse, the deficit is growing by leaps and bounds and these low rates can't hold. That's not a recipe for a booming market.
 
[quote author="norcaljeff" date=1238760753][quote author="BlackVault CM2" date=1238750542][quote author="norcaljeff" date=1238745059]Well RIMM along was up 23% today, inc a/h action. If that's not frothy I don't know what is. I do believe Rimm has been over due, but come on folks. Don't think the rally is still around for 5 months. BlackVault, you are in a much better position than I to comment on that (you were right to stay with the financials rally), I just find it interesting the parallels to last year. I was long oil this same time last year, watched it go from $60 to $50, then road it from $50 to $60 thinking that was a hell of a run. The saying "Sell in May and Go Away" has probably never been more true than it will be for 2009.</blockquote>


I have no emotion. I ride whatever wave I can catch. Everyday is a good day!



EDIT: I'll pop in to make comments here and there, but not allowed to make public comments or offer my opinion.</blockquote>


Are you Dylan Ratigan? LOL



I have no emotion either, just stating what I observe on a daily basis. Correct me if I'm wrong but I don't see any changes in the fundamentals. Unemployment is getting worse, the deficit is growing by leaps and bounds and these low rates can't hold. That's not a recipe for a booming market.</blockquote>


There are changes in fundamentals. They aren't bleeding as bad...at least for now. I know this is a repeat info, but think of the stock market as your crystal ball of what is to come...not what is currently happening. First, you need to stay on top of the information given, and digest it faster than the general public...you'll be one step ahead. Second you need to understand how the average investor will react to the news...simple psychology. Then react accordingly before everybody else.
 
My guess is this is going to be a big bull rally. Why? Because I reached my stress point when DJIA hit the sixes, and when it got back to 7800 I got out. Whenever I get out it is always a mistake.



So, bet on my bad decision making. :)
 
[quote author="jefa" date=1238921462]My guess is this is going to be a big bull rally. Why? Because I reached my stress point when DJIA hit the sixes, and when it got back to 7800 I got out. Whenever I get out it is always a mistake.



So, bet on my bad decision making. :)</blockquote>


Well then, let me know when you're back in 100% and I'll short it with everything I got :)
 
[quote author="PANDA" date=1234913348]UpperLowerClass, Will you be my new Kungfu Master?



Panda is back in DXO@$2.01... Yahoooo!!!!</blockquote>


UpperLowerClass, did you sell out of DXO without telling me? I am still holding on to my DXOs. Should i hold or sell? Hahahaha..
 
[quote author="PANDA" date=1239180779][quote author="PANDA" date=1234913348]UpperLowerClass, Will you be my new Kungfu Master?



Panda is back in DXO@$2.01... Yahoooo!!!!</blockquote>


UpperLowerClass, did you sell out of DXO without telling me? I am still holding on to my DXOs. Should i hold or sell? Hahahaha..</blockquote>


Glad to see Panda back. I'm not kidding. I am sincerely glad to see him back.



And this is not to make fun of him, but it is a sign to short FXI. Because his timing is impeccable, look at the chart, look at how the Asian markets are trading right now. It's just too ironic to ignore, and I had to point it out. Love you Panda, your timing of your return is too funny. I hope you make some money from it.
 
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