usctrojanman29_IHB
New member
Not for the weak of heart but I don't see a lot of risk in the following trade I made earlier this morning...I sold 30 uncovered Jan 30 ROH puts @ $.40/call (while the stock was trading at around $60).
Stock Market Day-Trading Discussion Thread
- Thread starter usctrojanman29_IHB
- Start date
NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
Do you think a major war could be a real probability?
I know the question wasn't directed towards me, but I'll answer it anyway. It all depends on what your timeframes are. If they are long enough, then I would say that a war against Russia and/or China is a certainty. It may not happen in 2009, but I don't think we can make it through the next 15 years without it happening.
Depends on how bad things get. When a country is backed in a corner and has nothing else to look forward too then they will resort to war pressured by its own people.
Let me ask you a question...
You are working, the company you work for hasn't paid you in about 3 months. They have paid you some in food and vodka, but now they are running out of that as well. You'll take food at this point in order for you or your family to survive, but there isn't any anymore. You will panic, riot, revolt etc. This is natural human behaviour in order to survive, but it won't accomplish anything because nobody has any food either. OH WAIT. You do have 25,000 nuclear warheads, and handful of tanks and planes and countries around you have food. Would you as a country use them? or go extinct. Well Russia came close to this before and who's to say it won't get there again, especially the situation they are heading to. If you want to know details on how these sequental events actually come to reality, go study WWII and Germany.
Take China...They f'ed up royaly by limiting how many females per household they can have or females in general. Now there is an inbalance between male/female population. What do you do? put all those men to work as new factories are popping up left and right. Wait a sec...they are shutting down left and right now because of the economy. What does that extra testasterone do since it can't mate and start a family? they riot...this is what currently is happening in China today. How does a government get rid of riots and these extra males? Start a war. The country gains by defeating its foes, and gains by losing some of its own males to create balance.
Thoughts?
In contrast, the United States has a total armed force of ~2.8 Million if you include reserves. The only thing working in our favor is that China isn't prepared for war at sea and Russia is a much closer and more tempting target.
And we have better trained warfighters, weapon systems, and logistics systems to supply our people with food, fuel, and ammunition. Russia had problems supplying their own troops when they fought Afghanistan, and they share a border with Afghanistan. Forget about either China or Russia being able to fight a war half way around the world.
You sold at a good time and made a very nice profit. If you were still holding today, you would have seen that 50% gain cut in half.
Good job, Panda.
Graph,
Beginner's luck! Trading Stocks is definitely not for me.
So you think USO is okay if i want to go long on OIL for atleast a year? I am tempted to buy in tomorrow as I can't see Oil being less than $50 for very long. What do you IHB stock professionals think? Panda needs your advice.
Today was weird day as everything went down. Dollar, Gold, and Oil all went down. Normally when the dollar is down, gold would rise. Not today?
usctrojanman29_IHB
New member
I'm waiting in the wings to go short on the markets myself, I think after the Jan options expire and Obama takes office the market will get the cold slap of reality of where the economy is. I keep seeing more and more analysts come on CNBC telling people that we will have double digit returns in the market in 2009 and how the bottom is in place (one guy even made a prediction that the S&P goes to 1,200 this year...what a joke). All those analysts expect the economy to rebound by the middle of this year....not a chance in my mind.blackvault_cm said:
awgee_IHB
New member
"Indeed, one of the great social benefits of the Madoff scandal may be to finally reveal the S.E.C. for what it has become.
Created to protect investors from financial predators, the commission has somehow evolved into a mechanism for protecting financial predators with political clout from investors. (The task it has performed most diligently during this crisis has been to question, intimidate and impose rules on short-sellers — the only market players who have a financial incentive to expose fraud and abuse.)
"
Lewis and Einhorn
Created to protect investors from financial predators, the commission has somehow evolved into a mechanism for protecting financial predators with political clout from investors. (The task it has performed most diligently during this crisis has been to question, intimidate and impose rules on short-sellers — the only market players who have a financial incentive to expose fraud and abuse.)
"
Lewis and Einhorn
jbenko_IHB
New member
Dipped my toes in the water...bought Feb puts on Cisco, Simon, and Best Buy. Cisco is a quick trade, the rest I plan to hold a bit... Slowly shifting...
ABC123_IHB
New member
blackvault_cm said:
Do you think a major war could be a real probability?
ABC123 said:
I know the question wasn't directed towards me, but I'll answer it anyway. It all depends on what your timeframes are. If they are long enough, then I would say that a war against Russia and/or China is a certainty. It may not happen in 2009, but I don't think we can make it through the next 15 years without it happening.
jbenko_IHB
New member
ABC123 said:
Depends on how bad things get. When a country is backed in a corner and has nothing else to look forward too then they will resort to war pressured by its own people.
Let me ask you a question...
You are working, the company you work for hasn't paid you in about 3 months. They have paid you some in food and vodka, but now they are running out of that as well. You'll take food at this point in order for you or your family to survive, but there isn't any anymore. You will panic, riot, revolt etc. This is natural human behaviour in order to survive, but it won't accomplish anything because nobody has any food either. OH WAIT. You do have 25,000 nuclear warheads, and handful of tanks and planes and countries around you have food. Would you as a country use them? or go extinct. Well Russia came close to this before and who's to say it won't get there again, especially the situation they are heading to. If you want to know details on how these sequental events actually come to reality, go study WWII and Germany.
Take China...They f'ed up royaly by limiting how many females per household they can have or females in general. Now there is an inbalance between male/female population. What do you do? put all those men to work as new factories are popping up left and right. Wait a sec...they are shutting down left and right now because of the economy. What does that extra testasterone do since it can't mate and start a family? they riot...this is what currently is happening in China today. How does a government get rid of riots and these extra males? Start a war. The country gains by defeating its foes, and gains by losing some of its own males to create balance.
Thoughts?
usctrojanman29_IHB
New member
Ditto here...picked up 10 QQQQ March 32 puts and 100 shares of QID at 7am.blackvault_cm said:
upperlowerclass_IHB
New member
Everything is dropping... deleveraging round 2?
usctrojanman29_IHB
New member
Nah, more like a cold biatch slap of reality for the market that everything isn't getting better. The markets rallied about 25% from the Nov lows, it's time to start giving some of that back since the market looks overbought. I think that once earnings season starts and most companies begin to disappoint left and right, not only with Q4 results but also with 2009 guidance, the market might go back towards the Nov lows.upperlowerclass said:
upperlowerclass_IHB
New member
I sold all my positions other than three. I kept them because scottrade says it'll be a "free ride" if I sell unsettled funds. I really want to sell these now because I think the profits I have in them might vanish soon. How bad is it to sell unsetlled funds and get dinged with "free ride"? One I can sell tomorrow, the other 2 on fri, should i just wait?
O
Oscar_IHB
Guest
It's actually worse than that. Five years ago, I calculated that by next year they will have ~14.7 MILLION more men of fighting age than women of childbearing age. The raw data came from the UN's own projections. Essentially they could lose 14 million males between the ages of 15 and 40 and still maintain parity between men and women of reproductive age! And China just moved to block all internet porn. If a minimum military division consists of 10,000 men, China could soon have 1400 divisions of formerly unemployed, frustrated, angry men ready to fight.blackvault_cm said:
In contrast, the United States has a total armed force of ~2.8 Million if you include reserves. The only thing working in our favor is that China isn't prepared for war at sea and Russia is a much closer and more tempting target.
Oscar said:
And we have better trained warfighters, weapon systems, and logistics systems to supply our people with food, fuel, and ammunition. Russia had problems supplying their own troops when they fought Afghanistan, and they share a border with Afghanistan. Forget about either China or Russia being able to fight a war half way around the world.
O
Oscar_IHB
Guest
I started a new thread to end the thread-jacking.
graphrix_IHB
New member
PANDA said:
You sold at a good time and made a very nice profit. If you were still holding today, you would have seen that 50% gain cut in half.
Good job, Panda.
PANDA_IHB
New member
graphrix said:
Graph,
Beginner's luck! Trading Stocks is definitely not for me.
So you think USO is okay if i want to go long on OIL for atleast a year? I am tempted to buy in tomorrow as I can't see Oil being less than $50 for very long. What do you IHB stock professionals think? Panda needs your advice.
Today was weird day as everything went down. Dollar, Gold, and Oil all went down. Normally when the dollar is down, gold would rise. Not today?
O
Oscar_IHB
Guest
Or call Kaneb Terminals and lease a storage tank. Probably cheaper and if you diversify between oil, nat gas, and gasoline, you could cover all the bases when the end times come.skek said: