usctrojanman29_IHB
New member
Black, I have 1 Nov 97 S&P Put and 1 Nov 92 Dow Put that will be expiring next Friday...when do you think a good time to dump them will be (I had 5 of each but sold them before the late Oct rally)?blackvault_cm said:
Stock Market Day-Trading Discussion Thread
- Thread starter usctrojanman29_IHB
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Personally, it just depends when you bought and for what price and what your target is. You didn't disclose that and I won't ask but here is a general rule when I trade options.
If you buy 1month options you have to remember that time decay is much faster than 2 month+ options. That being said when I trade 1 monthers I usually don't hold more than a couple of days. For example I bought XOM options this morning at 3.4 and sold for 4.1 a couple hours ago. If I would have bought for 3.4 and it went against me, I would either cost average IF and only IF i believed that the market is due to go down, or I would simply sell and take a loss.
Anytime a short term option contract moves away from you, I would cut losses immediately. Also, because things go up and down all the time; then as soon as you get a significant move to your favor sell it because fighting time decay is brutal especially if the market moves up the following day or stays neutral. Don't get greedy.
1 Month options isn't investing...its gambling. So gamble smart. Just like in a poker tourney game, don't keep blowing chips chasing turns and rivers. If you have AK in your hand and the flop doesn't favor you, then take the preflop loss and wait for a better opportunity. You see when the flop doesn't come and you are determined to stay in, you end up spending alot more chasing the turn/river. Worse of all you might be tempted in going all in to try and bluff as your last hope of desperation...thats when you lose your pants.
Unanimous decision? So what you are saying is that those that are long have a best case scenario of breaking even many years down the road?
I was referring to his tech bubble comment and not the housing long statement.
Some guys may have packed it in after the tech bubble.
He got back into the ring after hitting the canvas, recovered, and years later continues to trade.
Just like the champ did after going doing in the first round this past Sat.
Not a hold and hope strategy wishing an investment will break-even many years later.
Lol good one.
Seriously "conventional" wisdom is way overrated. I wouldn't want to pickup this stock, but it's good to see someone coming in from a totally different perspective.
While many of us philosophize all day in armchairs about how deep the next Great Depression will be, how much gold will rise over time, etc... the fact of the matter is, I'm certain after this all this done the "best" investment for the period will not be gold, and it won't be some short either. It'll be some company that actually grew and offered services & goods this "new" economical environment needs.
I'd like to see more "thinking outside the box" posts like this - instead of the usual "extrapolate every trend to zero" comments we seem to have nowadays
.
Chrysler went from 2$ to 80$ within a few years when it was bailed out 25 years ago. Not saying this will happen, but I think you're underestimating the potential craziness of an upside in GM, as well as the psychology of stockholders who hold a stock that "can't be allowed to fail". Volkswagen went up 300% in about four days last week for no good reason except short covering when Porsche announced they would increase their stake to 25%. The short interest on GM is 16% of float, that's enough to cause a big rip on very little positive news.
Why are you "hoping" for a selloff? Didn't you just post some deriding comments about "all the longs have now is hope"? My thoughts are a true trader doesn't really care if the market goes up or down - he looks at the charts, and if he sees a setup he likes, he goes for it, up or down. So why all the "hope"?
I also don't get why you get so excited at the prospect of a big sell-off. What I mean is, all things been equal, bear markets suck, even for bears. During huge bulls you get people like Dan Zanger who turn 10k$ into 40 million in 18 months. It requires insane luck, but it happens. I can guarantee you the best shorter in the world isn't going to get anywhere near this return this year. So if you and I are interested in making money, then all things been equal you should "hope" for a big rally rather than a large crash.
Of course we trade the markets that are given to us, so hoping is irrelevant - but "hoping" for a crash isn't trading what you're given, it's holding on to a personal opinion.
Whoa whoa whoa Muzie. Why all the hate against the bears? Why do you feel mocked? Why are you upset because some of us are protecting ourselves and even profiting from the bear market?
You see some people buy equities and sit on it...some of us trade the market. The time to be long will come one day, right now is not the time. So why would I want the market to go up when a portion of my portfolio is short? I am trading the opportunity, and I'm LOVING IT.
Also, you don't need to tell me that gains from longs is unlimited and gains from bears is limited. However, I make a living from buying and selling stocks and I can't do that if I'm long 100% of the time. I have to follow the money to make money.
Nowhere did I say I felt personally mocked. Nowhere did I say you should be buy and holding. Do me a favor and look up Dan Zanger I mentioned and tell me if you could possibly be any further than buy and hold than that guy. So, sorry, but the appeals as if I felt I was under attack isn't working.
You want to make money. I want to make money. I don't give a rat's ass what way if it's legal. You present yourself as a daytrader that "follows the money" - that's what this thread is supposed to be about. Fact is, most of this thread is devoted more to fundamental arguments about what's wrong with the economy, than about daytrading setups. It's not "following the money" if all you're doing is rehashing all the bearish news everybody is aware of already.
If I want to make money, there is no interest from me in being right/wrong/bearish/bullish overall. Traders are neutral. If you're constantly trying to prove that the world is coming to the end, then clearly that trader is more interested in "being right" than in making money - and in fact most people are. I would love being right. But making money comes first. Hence "hoping" for a crash (or for a great rally) wouldn't enter my mindset as a trader.
I don't feel mocked - but I do find a lot of stock market bears have an arrogant "I know better" attitude that's not warranted, e.g. calling people on the opposite of these trades "suckers", "bagholders", etc. It's a mentality I find odd.
Talking about the direction of short term market conditions is all this thread is about. At times we will talk about certain setups, but I honestly feel its kinda of worthless because I change my positions on a consitant basis and can make up to 70 trades a day. So I won't sit here and post all that.
As far as my thinking of the world is going to end, I don't believe that. If you believe in God he specifically says he will never allow an event to end human kind. If you don't believe in God, then you have to be hopefull enough not to.
As far as me thinking people are suckers for holding long positions? NO not at all. I have a huge long position, that I won't sell. However you better belive that I will use money to create short term strategies and take advantage of this market situation. This is nothing for you to be worked up about or be upset.
So yes..we all want to make money. However what you are asking is impossible as you want to make money by equities going up...I want to make money by equities going down.
If you preffer to be on the bullish side...so be it. I don't. Market fundametals are stating things aren't peach.
SO yes...I want things to go down. I want to see MSFT at 8 dollars a share...I want to see WMT at 10 a share...I want to see home prices in Irvine come to 300K. Will we get that? probably not, but don't fault me for wanting that.
P.S. If we had a crash. Let say DOW to 2K. I would net about 14 Million dollars based on a rough calculations. So why wouldn't I hope for a crash again?
Oh and one last thing...from what you post...you are just one of those people who hate when other people point out gloomy situations. You hate the doom and gloom talk, and that is evident from some of the past posts as well. Sorry to inform you pal, but this is gloom and doom and the housing threads aren't any different.
You are welcome in preaching your side of story that things are going to go up.
Also, and I don't think you realize this. When we talk about longs vs. shorts...we are talking about DAY TRADING which is what this tread is about. We all know the market will be fine in the LONG run. We are speculating short term price movements.
Right on bro, congrats. You read my mind on GS. Unless it pops big right off the bat before I get to buy, I'll be there with you on GS calls. Good possible play. Which calls were you thinking of?
The trend still shows they will go down, but you never know and it could pop. With that being said, I am looking at the Dec. 85 GSLQ around the $5 range. I have a feeling the numbers they will release at the end of the month will be not as bad as everyone expects, or what they are pricing it in as. I will be watching it tomorrow morning.
Did you notice the high put to call ratio on C? Scratch that call idea.
I was looking at the Dec 80. I think you're right though as people are expecting the worst. I'm going to evaluate call options individually to see which one is most undervalued. Also, I want to price in a potential straddle play, but I'm afraid it might be too expensive for the payout.
No I didn't check C. I'm usually afraid to buy options on low priced stocks. They are often too expensive related to stock price, but thats not always true.
Well, I give up. Obviously you're very stubbornly trying to shade everything in a way that's pre-conceived in your head, including boxing whoever's talking to you into whatever pre-conceived notion you have of them. I could tell you you sound like all those traders who talk like they never lose money, and magically their "trades" also show up with great profits no matter what happens. Market is so easy, right?
I didn't "preach" things were going up. As for fundamentals being bad, it might surprise you to know you're not the only one informing himself on world events. You talk as if you figured this all out way before everyone else but in fact in this neck of the woods it is you, not I, who is the relative newcomer who suddenly showed up a few days before the crash on the forums. If I need doom & gloom economic analysis, I'll ask Rubini and get it directly from the source, thank you.
I hate doom & gloom talk that is there to make people sound like they're interesting. I like it when it's based on new facts. And we haven't had new facts in a while now.
I'm not always right. Go read some posts where I posted I lost money. As a matter of a fact, I just recently broke even on my short position. I made a killing on the prior short, then shorted again when DOW was 9200 and then wen tot 9600. Now DOW is at 8900 throw in time value decay and I'm barely ahead. But don't I post my trades before hand? You are welcome to stop being so stubborn yourself and lookup half the items I posted and see if it was right or wrong.
As far as doom and gloom talk...we always talk about new facts here and other potentials economic news that can possibly move the market up or down. You are too ignorant to see them as you seem to be stuck in your long positions. Let me get this straight...you know the fundamentals are bad, but yet you are hoping for the market to go up? Baffling.
Nobody is trying to call out right or wrongs. As a matter of a fact this is why I wanted to take this offline...because I specifically posted I didn't want to clutter the threads wind random garbage talk...yet obviously there are some like you who can't help but keep coming back to read this thread even if you hate what is being written.
But just in case there are others out there that feel this way, I'll just take it offline as you won't see me again. Adios.
also read: accountability.
jbenko_IHB
New member
usctrojanman29 said:
Personally, it just depends when you bought and for what price and what your target is. You didn't disclose that and I won't ask but here is a general rule when I trade options.
If you buy 1month options you have to remember that time decay is much faster than 2 month+ options. That being said when I trade 1 monthers I usually don't hold more than a couple of days. For example I bought XOM options this morning at 3.4 and sold for 4.1 a couple hours ago. If I would have bought for 3.4 and it went against me, I would either cost average IF and only IF i believed that the market is due to go down, or I would simply sell and take a loss.
Anytime a short term option contract moves away from you, I would cut losses immediately. Also, because things go up and down all the time; then as soon as you get a significant move to your favor sell it because fighting time decay is brutal especially if the market moves up the following day or stays neutral. Don't get greedy.
1 Month options isn't investing...its gambling. So gamble smart. Just like in a poker tourney game, don't keep blowing chips chasing turns and rivers. If you have AK in your hand and the flop doesn't favor you, then take the preflop loss and wait for a better opportunity. You see when the flop doesn't come and you are determined to stay in, you end up spending alot more chasing the turn/river. Worse of all you might be tempted in going all in to try and bluff as your last hope of desperation...thats when you lose your pants.
jbenko_IHB
New member
tenmagnet said:
Unanimous decision? So what you are saying is that those that are long have a best case scenario of breaking even many years down the road?
usctrojanman29_IHB
New member
I picked up 5 NOV 97 S&P Puts @ $6.95 and 5 NOV DOW Puts @ $7.05 back in mid-October. I unloaded 4 of the S&P puts @ $13.25 and 4 of the Dow puts @ $12.10 before the late October rally so I'm playing with the house's money. I was thinking of selling the 2 puts at close today because there was some late minute buying. I'll most likely sell them tomorrow if there is a down day since I'm off and will be watching the markets very closely.blackvault_cm said:
tenmagnet_IHB
New member
blackvault_cm said:
I was referring to his tech bubble comment and not the housing long statement.
Some guys may have packed it in after the tech bubble.
He got back into the ring after hitting the canvas, recovered, and years later continues to trade.
Just like the champ did after going doing in the first round this past Sat.
Not a hold and hope strategy wishing an investment will break-even many years later.
muzie_IHB
New member
socalmd said:
Lol good one.
Seriously "conventional" wisdom is way overrated. I wouldn't want to pickup this stock, but it's good to see someone coming in from a totally different perspective.
While many of us philosophize all day in armchairs about how deep the next Great Depression will be, how much gold will rise over time, etc... the fact of the matter is, I'm certain after this all this done the "best" investment for the period will not be gold, and it won't be some short either. It'll be some company that actually grew and offered services & goods this "new" economical environment needs.
I'd like to see more "thinking outside the box" posts like this - instead of the usual "extrapolate every trend to zero" comments we seem to have nowadays
.
muzie_IHB
New member
blackvault_cm said:
Chrysler went from 2$ to 80$ within a few years when it was bailed out 25 years ago. Not saying this will happen, but I think you're underestimating the potential craziness of an upside in GM, as well as the psychology of stockholders who hold a stock that "can't be allowed to fail". Volkswagen went up 300% in about four days last week for no good reason except short covering when Porsche announced they would increase their stake to 25%. The short interest on GM is 16% of float, that's enough to cause a big rip on very little positive news.
muzie_IHB
New member
blackvault_cm said:
Why are you "hoping" for a selloff? Didn't you just post some deriding comments about "all the longs have now is hope"? My thoughts are a true trader doesn't really care if the market goes up or down - he looks at the charts, and if he sees a setup he likes, he goes for it, up or down. So why all the "hope"?
I also don't get why you get so excited at the prospect of a big sell-off. What I mean is, all things been equal, bear markets suck, even for bears. During huge bulls you get people like Dan Zanger who turn 10k$ into 40 million in 18 months. It requires insane luck, but it happens. I can guarantee you the best shorter in the world isn't going to get anywhere near this return this year. So if you and I are interested in making money, then all things been equal you should "hope" for a big rally rather than a large crash.
Of course we trade the markets that are given to us, so hoping is irrelevant - but "hoping" for a crash isn't trading what you're given, it's holding on to a personal opinion.
jbenko_IHB
New member
muzie said:
Whoa whoa whoa Muzie. Why all the hate against the bears? Why do you feel mocked? Why are you upset because some of us are protecting ourselves and even profiting from the bear market?
You see some people buy equities and sit on it...some of us trade the market. The time to be long will come one day, right now is not the time. So why would I want the market to go up when a portion of my portfolio is short? I am trading the opportunity, and I'm LOVING IT.
Also, you don't need to tell me that gains from longs is unlimited and gains from bears is limited. However, I make a living from buying and selling stocks and I can't do that if I'm long 100% of the time. I have to follow the money to make money.
muzie_IHB
New member
blackvault_cm said:
Nowhere did I say I felt personally mocked. Nowhere did I say you should be buy and holding. Do me a favor and look up Dan Zanger I mentioned and tell me if you could possibly be any further than buy and hold than that guy. So, sorry, but the appeals as if I felt I was under attack isn't working
.You want to make money. I want to make money. I don't give a rat's ass what way if it's legal. You present yourself as a daytrader that "follows the money" - that's what this thread is supposed to be about. Fact is, most of this thread is devoted more to fundamental arguments about what's wrong with the economy, than about daytrading setups. It's not "following the money" if all you're doing is rehashing all the bearish news everybody is aware of already.
If I want to make money, there is no interest from me in being right/wrong/bearish/bullish overall. Traders are neutral. If you're constantly trying to prove that the world is coming to the end, then clearly that trader is more interested in "being right" than in making money - and in fact most people are. I would love being right. But making money comes first. Hence "hoping" for a crash (or for a great rally) wouldn't enter my mindset as a trader.
I don't feel mocked - but I do find a lot of stock market bears have an arrogant "I know better" attitude that's not warranted, e.g. calling people on the opposite of these trades "suckers", "bagholders", etc. It's a mentality I find odd.
graphrix_IHB
New member
I heart volatility. Sold the BAC puts for $1.65 today. This idiot made a 65% return in just a few days. Now I just need to look for the next opportunity, and I still feel that volatility will rule the day. Mmmm... heavy volume on the near the money GS calls...
jbenko_IHB
New member
Nowhere did I say I felt personally mocked. Nowhere did I say you should be buy and holding. Do me a favor and look up Dan Zanger I mentioned and tell me if you could possibly be any further than buy and hold than that guy. So, sorry, but the appeals as if I felt I was under attack isn't working
You want to make money. I want to make money. I don't give a rat's ass what way if it's legal. You present yourself as a daytrader that "follows the money" - that's what this thread is supposed to be about. Fact is, most of this thread is devoted more to fundamental arguments about what's wrong with the economy, than about daytrading setups. It's not "following the money" if all you're doing is rehashing all the bearish news everybody is aware of already.
If I want to make money, there is no interest from me in being right/wrong/bearish/bullish overall. Traders are neutral. If you're constantly trying to prove that the world is coming to the end, then clearly that trader is more interested in "being right" than in making money - and in fact most people are. I would love being right. But making money comes first. Hence "hoping" for a crash (or for a great rally) wouldn't enter my mindset as a trader.
I don't feel mocked - but I do find a lot of stock market bears have an arrogant "I know better" attitude that's not warranted, e.g. calling people on the opposite of these trades "suckers", "bagholders", etc. It's a mentality I find odd.
Talking about the direction of short term market conditions is all this thread is about. At times we will talk about certain setups, but I honestly feel its kinda of worthless because I change my positions on a consitant basis and can make up to 70 trades a day. So I won't sit here and post all that.
As far as my thinking of the world is going to end, I don't believe that. If you believe in God he specifically says he will never allow an event to end human kind. If you don't believe in God, then you have to be hopefull enough not to.
As far as me thinking people are suckers for holding long positions? NO not at all. I have a huge long position, that I won't sell. However you better belive that I will use money to create short term strategies and take advantage of this market situation. This is nothing for you to be worked up about or be upset.
So yes..we all want to make money. However what you are asking is impossible as you want to make money by equities going up...I want to make money by equities going down.
If you preffer to be on the bullish side...so be it. I don't. Market fundametals are stating things aren't peach.
SO yes...I want things to go down. I want to see MSFT at 8 dollars a share...I want to see WMT at 10 a share...I want to see home prices in Irvine come to 300K. Will we get that? probably not, but don't fault me for wanting that.
P.S. If we had a crash. Let say DOW to 2K. I would net about 14 Million dollars based on a rough calculations. So why wouldn't I hope for a crash again?
Oh and one last thing...from what you post...you are just one of those people who hate when other people point out gloomy situations. You hate the doom and gloom talk, and that is evident from some of the past posts as well. Sorry to inform you pal, but this is gloom and doom and the housing threads aren't any different.
You are welcome in preaching your side of story that things are going to go up.
Also, and I don't think you realize this. When we talk about longs vs. shorts...we are talking about DAY TRADING which is what this tread is about. We all know the market will be fine in the LONG run. We are speculating short term price movements.
jbenko_IHB
New member
graphrix said:
Right on bro, congrats. You read my mind on GS. Unless it pops big right off the bat before I get to buy, I'll be there with you on GS calls. Good possible play. Which calls were you thinking of?
graphrix_IHB
New member
blackvault_cm said:
The trend still shows they will go down, but you never know and it could pop. With that being said, I am looking at the Dec. 85 GSLQ around the $5 range. I have a feeling the numbers they will release at the end of the month will be not as bad as everyone expects, or what they are pricing it in as. I will be watching it tomorrow morning.
Did you notice the high put to call ratio on C? Scratch that call idea.
jbenko_IHB
New member
graphrix said:
I was looking at the Dec 80. I think you're right though as people are expecting the worst. I'm going to evaluate call options individually to see which one is most undervalued. Also, I want to price in a potential straddle play, but I'm afraid it might be too expensive for the payout.
No I didn't check C. I'm usually afraid to buy options on low priced stocks. They are often too expensive related to stock price, but thats not always true.
muzie_IHB
New member
blackvault_cm said:
Well, I give up. Obviously you're very stubbornly trying to shade everything in a way that's pre-conceived in your head, including boxing whoever's talking to you into whatever pre-conceived notion you have of them. I could tell you you sound like all those traders who talk like they never lose money, and magically their "trades" also show up with great profits no matter what happens. Market is so easy, right?
I didn't "preach" things were going up. As for fundamentals being bad, it might surprise you to know you're not the only one informing himself on world events. You talk as if you figured this all out way before everyone else but in fact in this neck of the woods it is you, not I, who is the relative newcomer who suddenly showed up a few days before the crash on the forums. If I need doom & gloom economic analysis, I'll ask Rubini and get it directly from the source, thank you.
I hate doom & gloom talk that is there to make people sound like they're interesting. I like it when it's based on new facts. And we haven't had new facts in a while now.
jbenko_IHB
New member
muzie said:
I'm not always right. Go read some posts where I posted I lost money. As a matter of a fact, I just recently broke even on my short position. I made a killing on the prior short, then shorted again when DOW was 9200 and then wen tot 9600. Now DOW is at 8900 throw in time value decay and I'm barely ahead. But don't I post my trades before hand? You are welcome to stop being so stubborn yourself and lookup half the items I posted and see if it was right or wrong.
As far as doom and gloom talk...we always talk about new facts here and other potentials economic news that can possibly move the market up or down. You are too ignorant to see them as you seem to be stuck in your long positions. Let me get this straight...you know the fundamentals are bad, but yet you are hoping for the market to go up? Baffling.
Nobody is trying to call out right or wrongs. As a matter of a fact this is why I wanted to take this offline...because I specifically posted I didn't want to clutter the threads wind random garbage talk...yet obviously there are some like you who can't help but keep coming back to read this thread even if you hate what is being written.
But just in case there are others out there that feel this way, I'll just take it offline as you won't see me again. Adios.
awgee_IHB
New member
Muzie - From my point of view, I am guessing Blackvault is the only one posting on this thread who can make money trading successfully on a consistent basis. Because he is, as far as I have read, the only one who readily speaks of his mistakes or trades in real time that have not gone his way. My own experience is that I did not become successful shorting until I started writing down all my reasons and analyzing my "bad" trades or mistakes with brutal honesty, and relating them to my father. What I recognize in Blackvault is that he can speak of his mistakes or bad trades with little to no ego involved. It is just part of his business.
IrvineRealtor_IHB
New member
awgee said:
also read: accountability.