Stock Market Day-Trading Discussion Thread

[quote author="norcaljeff" date=1243575122]This thing has slowed down so there's either no interest because the rally is mostly over or people aren't making easy money :) I've done well on oil and gasoline. Stayed away from everything else except TIPS.</blockquote>


What's causing the oil runup? I thought OPEC left output the same and was thinking about increasing it?
 
[quote author="irvine_grad" date=1243637034][quote author="norcaljeff" date=1243575122]This thing has slowed down so there's either no interest because the rally is mostly over or people aren't making easy money :) I've done well on oil and gasoline. Stayed away from everything else except TIPS.</blockquote>


What's causing the oil runup? I thought OPEC left output the same and was thinking about increasing it?</blockquote>
What else....HOT MONEY (aka speculators). I've heard that there are ships and ships loaded up with oil just sitting around everywhere.
 
[quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1243641307][quote author="irvine_grad" date=1243637034][quote author="norcaljeff" date=1243575122]This thing has slowed down so there's either no interest because the rally is mostly over or people aren't making easy money :) I've done well on oil and gasoline. Stayed away from everything else except TIPS.</blockquote>


What's causing the oil runup? I thought OPEC left output the same and was thinking about increasing it?</blockquote>
What else....HOT MONEY (aka speculators). I've heard that there are ships and ships loaded up with oil just sitting around everywhere.</blockquote>


Soon to collapse
 
[quote author="morekaos" date=1243641442][quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1243641307][quote author="irvine_grad" date=1243637034][quote author="norcaljeff" date=1243575122]This thing has slowed down so there's either no interest because the rally is mostly over or people aren't making easy money :) I've done well on oil and gasoline. Stayed away from everything else except TIPS.</blockquote>


What's causing the oil runup? I thought OPEC left output the same and was thinking about increasing it?</blockquote>
What else....HOT MONEY (aka speculators). I've heard that there are ships and ships loaded up with oil just sitting around everywhere.</blockquote>


Soon to collapse</blockquote>
2008 all over again? When do you think we head back down on USO?
 
[quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1243645599][quote author="morekaos" date=1243641442][quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1243641307][quote author="irvine_grad" date=1243637034][quote author="norcaljeff" date=1243575122]This thing has slowed down so there's either no interest because the rally is mostly over or people aren't making easy money :) I've done well on oil and gasoline. Stayed away from everything else except TIPS.</blockquote>


What's causing the oil runup? I thought OPEC left output the same and was thinking about increasing it?</blockquote>
What else....HOT MONEY (aka speculators). I've heard that there are ships and ships loaded up with oil just sitting around everywhere.</blockquote>


Soon to collapse</blockquote>
2008 all over again? When do you think we head back down on USO?</blockquote>


Any day now
 
[quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1243645599][quote author="morekaos" date=1243641442][quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1243641307][quote author="irvine_grad" date=1243637034][quote author="norcaljeff" date=1243575122]This thing has slowed down so there's either no interest because the rally is mostly over or people aren't making easy money :) I've done well on oil and gasoline. Stayed away from everything else except TIPS.</blockquote>


What's causing the oil runup? I thought OPEC left output the same and was thinking about increasing it?</blockquote>
What else....HOT MONEY (aka speculators). I've heard that there are ships and ships loaded up with oil just sitting around everywhere.</blockquote>


Soon to collapse</blockquote>
2008 all over again? When do you think we head back down on USO?</blockquote>


If you like to play the high/hyper inflation, don't buy TIPs, won't help you that much, TIPs are tied to CPI, which I considered to be the worst inflation indicator out there (excluding food and energy, WTF??!!), buy gold and sliver.
 
A quick trading idea for your play money, buy GM stock or July-Sep $1 call, UAW would love to get out their positions asap to pay back the concessions, I believe Mr. Obama will help them to get out at a "reasonable" price.
 
[quote author="BondTrader" date=1243652821][quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1243645599][quote author="morekaos" date=1243641442][quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1243641307][quote author="irvine_grad" date=1243637034][quote author="norcaljeff" date=1243575122]This thing has slowed down so there's either no interest because the rally is mostly over or people aren't making easy money :) I've done well on oil and gasoline. Stayed away from everything else except TIPS.</blockquote>


What's causing the oil runup? I thought OPEC left output the same and was thinking about increasing it?</blockquote>
What else....HOT MONEY (aka speculators). I've heard that there are ships and ships loaded up with oil just sitting around everywhere.</blockquote>


Soon to collapse</blockquote>
2008 all over again? When do you think we head back down on USO?</blockquote>


If you like to play the high/hyper inflation, don't buy TIPs, won't help you that much, TIPs are tied to CPI, which I considered to be the worst inflation indicator out there (excluding food and energy, WTF??!!), buy gold and sliver.</blockquote>


Wrong!



TIPS are tied to CPI-U (All urban consumers) which does include food and energy. You are thinking of Core-CPI, which does indeed strip out food and energy. Here is a link the BLS site that includes the components of CPI-U and recent changes.



http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm



Gold is a very weak inflation hedge as any long term correlation statistics will indicate (Silver is worse).



http://seekingalpha.com/article/19950-gold-remains-a-poor-inflation-gauge



I believe Gold is far more useful as a currency hedge against the devaluation of the dollar (inflationary yes, but not inflation exactly). Considering the opportunity cost of holding gold, why not hold foreign currencies outright where the carry and fundamentals are attractive?
 
[quote author="BondTrader" date=1243652821][quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1243645599][quote author="morekaos" date=1243641442][quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1243641307][quote author="irvine_grad" date=1243637034][quote author="norcaljeff" date=1243575122]This thing has slowed down so there's either no interest because the rally is mostly over or people aren't making easy money :) I've done well on oil and gasoline. Stayed away from everything else except TIPS.</blockquote>


What's causing the oil runup? I thought OPEC left output the same and was thinking about increasing it?</blockquote>
What else....HOT MONEY (aka speculators). I've heard that there are ships and ships loaded up with oil just sitting around everywhere.</blockquote>


Soon to collapse</blockquote>
2008 all over again? When do you think we head back down on USO?</blockquote>


If you like to play the high/hyper inflation, don't buy TIPs, won't help you that much, TIPs are tied to CPI, which I considered to be the worst inflation indicator out there (excluding food and energy, WTF??!!), buy gold and sliver.</blockquote>


Agreed.
 
[quote author="irvine_grad" date=1243637034][quote author="norcaljeff" date=1243575122]This thing has slowed down so there's either no interest because the rally is mostly over or people aren't making easy money :) I've done well on oil and gasoline. Stayed away from everything else except TIPS.</blockquote>


What's causing the oil runup? I thought OPEC left output the same and was thinking about increasing it?</blockquote>


They just announced they want it at $80. Looks like we're going there. Nat Gas should start moving better soon. It's like a replay from 2008 but I'm better prepared this time. I love when history repeats itself.
 
[quote author="norcaljeff" date=1243761437][quote author="irvine_grad" date=1243637034][quote author="norcaljeff" date=1243575122]This thing has slowed down so there's either no interest because the rally is mostly over or people aren't making easy money :) I've done well on oil and gasoline. Stayed away from everything else except TIPS.</blockquote>


What's causing the oil runup? I thought OPEC left output the same and was thinking about increasing it?</blockquote>


They just announced they want it at $80. Looks like we're going there. Nat Gas should start moving better soon. It's like a replay from 2008 but I'm better prepared this time. I love when history repeats itself.</blockquote>
Hot Money baby...same money is pushing up the equity markets. I'm 100% cash ready for the drop we will have when people realize that second half recovery isn't coming and banks start taking their 2nd trillion of write-offs due to the increasing number of foreclosures. I read an article this last week on yahoo finance that about 12% of all mortgages are now 30-day past due....that's 1 in 8. And as BV stated, once we get past that 10.2% unemployment rate later this year....the bank stocks better watch out.
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1243759499]CPI is a bs, (hedonics), government statistic no matter which CPI you are referring to.</blockquote>


What is a better guage?



Bond Trader, please edit your post and correct the error! Misinformation about TIPS is a serious disservice to readers of the forum. For the average investor, and above average ones as well, TIPS should be a strategic allocation within their portfolio. Inflation is the bane of virtually every investment, except of course TIPS (and low Cap-ex business with sustainable brands and near limitless pricing power, please see See's Candy).
 
[quote author="CapitalismWorks" date=1243775270][quote author="awgee" date=1243759499]CPI is a bs, (hedonics), government statistic no matter which CPI you are referring to.</blockquote>


What is a better guage?



Bond Trader, please edit your post and correct the error! Misinformation about TIPS is a serious disservice to readers of the forum. For the average investor, and above average ones as well, TIPS should be a strategic allocation within their portfolio. Inflation is the bane of virtually every investment, except of course TIPS (and low Cap-ex business with sustainable brands and near limitless pricing power, please see See's Candy).</blockquote>


Shadowstats or Nowandfutures
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1243789326][quote author="CapitalismWorks" date=1243775270][quote author="awgee" date=1243759499]CPI is a bs, (hedonics), government statistic no matter which CPI you are referring to.</blockquote>


What is a better guage?



Bond Trader, please edit your post and correct the error! Misinformation about TIPS is a serious disservice to readers of the forum. For the average investor, and above average ones as well, TIPS should be a strategic allocation within their portfolio. Inflation is the bane of virtually every investment, except of course TIPS (and low Cap-ex business with sustainable brands and near limitless pricing power, please see See's Candy).</blockquote>


Shadowstats or Nowandfutures</blockquote>


OK, and what am I supposed to do with this information? Is there an instrument that pays these inflation estimates? If not, then what good are they?
 
[quote author="CapitalismWorks" date=1243827813][quote author="awgee" date=1243789326][quote author="CapitalismWorks" date=1243775270][quote author="awgee" date=1243759499]CPI is a bs, (hedonics), government statistic no matter which CPI you are referring to.</blockquote>


What is a better guage?



Bond Trader, please edit your post and correct the error! Misinformation about TIPS is a serious disservice to readers of the forum. For the average investor, and above average ones as well, TIPS should be a strategic allocation within their portfolio. Inflation is the bane of virtually every investment, except of course TIPS (and low Cap-ex business with sustainable brands and near limitless pricing power, please see See's Candy).</blockquote>


Shadowstats or Nowandfutures</blockquote>


OK, and what am I supposed to do with this information? Is there an instrument that pays these inflation estimates? If not, then what good are they?</blockquote>


Huh?

You asked "<em>What is a better guage?</em>, and I told you.

I do not know what you are supposed to do with better estimates of CPI. You are the one who asked. Why did you ask if you did not want to know?

For me, it helps me to realize that the government statistics are a lie and therefore any and all financial instruments using the governments version of the CPI as an index are using false data. It has helped me to realize that TIPS are about the last place in the world I would put funds in order to protect those funds from price or monetary inflation.

If you read Shadowstats, you will see that they estimate the CPI as it was estimated before Robert Rubin and Alan Greenspan started manipulating, substituting, and data mining the information used to estimate CPI.
 
[quote author="morekaos" date=1243650396][quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1243645599][quote author="morekaos" date=1243641442][quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1243641307][quote author="irvine_grad" date=1243637034][quote author="norcaljeff" date=1243575122]This thing has slowed down so there's either no interest because the rally is mostly over or people aren't making easy money :) I've done well on oil and gasoline. Stayed away from everything else except TIPS.</blockquote>


What's causing the oil runup? I thought OPEC left output the same and was thinking about increasing it?</blockquote>
What else....HOT MONEY (aka speculators). I've heard that there are ships and ships loaded up with oil just sitting around everywhere.</blockquote>


Soon to collapse</blockquote>
2008 all over again? When do you think we head back down on USO?</blockquote>


Any day now</blockquote>


here it comes



<a href="http://www.consumeraffairs.com/news04/2008/05/gas_prices246.html">oil manipulation under investigation.....again</a>
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1243836079][quote author="CapitalismWorks" date=1243827813][quote author="awgee" date=1243789326][quote author="CapitalismWorks" date=1243775270][quote author="awgee" date=1243759499]CPI is a bs, (hedonics), government statistic no matter which CPI you are referring to.</blockquote>


What is a better guage?



Bond Trader, please edit your post and correct the error! Misinformation about TIPS is a serious disservice to readers of the forum. For the average investor, and above average ones as well, TIPS should be a strategic allocation within their portfolio. Inflation is the bane of virtually every investment, except of course TIPS (and low Cap-ex business with sustainable brands and near limitless pricing power, please see See's Candy).</blockquote>


Shadowstats or Nowandfutures</blockquote>


OK, and what am I supposed to do with this information? Is there an instrument that pays these inflation estimates? If not, then what good are they?</blockquote>


Huh?

You asked "<em>What is a better guage?</em>, and I told you.

I do not know what you are supposed to do with better estimates of CPI. You are the one who asked. Why did you ask if you did not want to know?

For me, it helps me to realize that the government statistics are a lie and therefore any and all financial instruments using the governments version of the CPI as an index are using false data. It has helped me to realize that TIPS are about the last place in the world I would put funds in order to protect those funds from price or monetary inflation.

If you read Shadowstats, you will see that they estimate the CPI as it was estimated before Robert Rubin and Alan Greenspan started manipulating, substituting, and data mining the information used to estimate CPI.</blockquote>


Huh? I am trying to figure out what one is supposed to do with this "revelation". It is widely known that CPI underestimates inflation. However the difference between CPI numbers and actual price inflation are a difference of magnitude not direction. Either way inflation is erroding purchasing power, distorting risk premia, and creating undercertainty.



You can decide to do whatever you want with your money, but dismissing the inflation hedging attributes of TIPS is foolish (see Panda) especially when considering the inflationary forces that are building in the economy. They are part of the investable universe, and have provided wonderful trading opportunities.



Regardless this is all tangential. It was the post that erroneously reported the CPI measurement incorporated into TIPS that caught my attention. Frankly I am little surprised that no one was interested in the correct information. Perhaps I am wasting my time.
 
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