State of Irvine Real Estate 2026

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irvinehomeowner

irvinehomeowner

Well-known member
I miss @usctrojancpa real estate updates. Makes me wonder how the market is out there considering how high the prices are.

I used to do a market prediction poll around June every year but it was pointless because the prices just keep going up.

There are dips and lulls but there hasn't been a long multi-year sustained drop since the late 00 crash (maybe mid-Covid counts?).

This Zillow chart shows the growth for 10 years:

Irvine, CA Housing Market: 2026 Home Prices & Trends | Zillow

The average home value in Irvine, CA is $1,517,282, down 0.4% over the past year. Learn more about the Irvine housing market and real estate trends.
www.zillow.com www.zillow.com

1770913664709.png

And this could probably even go back to 2010 because 2012-13 felt like it was accelerating.

15 years of increasing prices seems ridiculous. And this isn't just Irvine, it's probably most of Orance County and SoCal.

Santa Ana has a similar curve:
1770914123302.png

I don't think incomes have doubled in the last 10 years for most people but interest rates have (where are all those "buy when rates are high" proponents?).

So high prices and high rates should suppress the market right? But look at the growth since 2023 when rates were in the 6% range.

How does anyone get into their first home today? Instead of stretching seems more like they have to downsize to make things work.
 
irvinehomeowner said:
How does anyone get into their first home today? Instead of stretching seems more like they have to downsize to make things work.
Click to expand...
Today is difficult, but in the not-too-distant future it will start to get easier.

The oldest Boomers turn 80 this year. Over the next 15 years, there will be a massive number of Boomers either liquidating or passing homes down to their children.

At the same time, you will have a shrinking pool of young people reaching "prime home buying age". Starting in 2008, the US birthrate began to fall off a cliff and it's still hitting new lows each year. The leading edge of this group hits 18 this year. Over the next 15 years, you are going to have an ever shrinking pool of first time buyers. Low immigration, if it continues, will accelerate this trend.

The young adult cohort will benefit from demographics in multiple ways: 1) fewer buyers combined with the Boomer liquidation event means home prices may not exceed inflation for a good while, 2) less demand due to fewer working age people means less inflation which will keep interest rates low (the US budget needs to get under control for this to happen) 3) fewer working age people means higher wages for those that still do work.

So stagnant home prices + low rates + higher wages = Gen Z is positioned to do well when it comes to home buying.
 
But how low can the prices to back down to? Recent crashes have resulted in a higher baseline of prices (except for Costco hot dog meal) so how much delta can the Boomer bomb create?

Everyone kept saying that when rates go up again from the 2-3% days, prices would go lower... but the graphs don't show that.
 
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