Spring 2014 Pricing - Best Guess on the Resale Market?

Assuming interest rates and conforming limits remain the same -- and new construction continues -- w


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Tyler Durden said:
The trick here is these builders are very smart.  I wouldn't say they are colluding, but they have certainly done enough market research to ensure that many offerings in the market do not overlap each other at the same time window.  That way, they have less reason to offer incentives or other sweeteners to choose their product vs. another builder's.

For example, OH will likely beat Hidden Canyon to market, meaning they will be the only game in town at the high end (until HC opens).  So if you want a new construction SFR at that price point in this town, you have to play their game or wait it out.

With PP, five points is also doing this... i would be willing to bet that they slowly release the remaining tracts in the GP so they are not cannibalizing sales from their own neighborhoods.

That being said, once more units come on line (when baker ranch and GP are in full swing), i could see the pricing leveling off.  But the builders would obviously slow down production to keep them from having excess inventory.

Think about this... Enzo Ferrari was once asked how many vehicles his company decided to manufacture each year.  His response "One less than customers will buy".  In other words, he knew that to keep prices high, he would restrict supply.

Yup. That's why having a lot of new construction projects will actually stabilize prices over the next few years and likely keep them moving up slightly. The builders can build faster to keep up with demand or slower to avoid discounting heavily. They also often discount in the more hidden ways like higher broker commissions, closing cost credits, design credits, etc. that are not comp-killers.
 
What can I say... I love hash browns. It was the guy who was smarter than all of us and then left town when things didn't go his way... like a certain home in Turtle Rock not selling for $650k.

My other favorite:

"FCBS are a myth, Irvine doesn't have any more Asians than it did 10 or 20 years ago." - #NotAccordingToThe2010Census
 
I think less informed buyers will go with newer instead of weighing in everything like location, density, lot size, home size, home features, community, extra taxes etc.

Many buyers don't want to worry about resale, bidding, pre-existing conditions and prefer the "new home smell".

I know I love new homes... but I also prefer the older floorplans, no mello roos, and the location of the old hoods and not having to worry about extra costs like landscaping in the near future.
 
bones said:
irvinehomeowner said:
I think less informed buyers will go with newer instead of weighing in everything like location, density, lot size, home size, home features, community, extra taxes etc.

Many buyers don't want to worry about resale, bidding, pre-existing conditions and prefer the "new home smell".

I know I love new homes... but I also prefer the older floorplans, no mello roos, and the location of the old hoods and not having to worry about extra costs like landscaping in the near future.

I'm def less informed.
Well... you're informed... you just like newer better. :)
 
Colibri has got to be the worse of the 1800-2000 sq ft homes....talk about no backyard and being super close together, you can almost call them attached...
 
irvinehomeowner said:
@Tyler:

Yep.

That's why I hate real estate.

No matter how much you rely on fundamentals, there is always some non-fundamentals going on that bites you.

Are we in a bubble now? What is driving it? No easy credit. Is it a low rate/high stock market bubble?

Confession: As much as I hate the fact that Willow Bend (and The Branches) is so overpriced and basically making money on "lack of" Mello Roos, at one point in time... I was seriously considering them. The Kool Aid is strong in Irvine.

That's because, even in Irvine, 90% of the housing product available isn't ultimately what people want, it's what they settle for.

People and families, really don't want attached product, zero lot lines, three stories stacked on top of the garage townhomes. That's what they take since that's what they can get.

Most of you are missing demand for supply.  House sell supply is a lot like the job market at the moment. The over-all number looks good, but when you dig into the details, you realize the 200K job gains are on 3.2 million new hires over 3.0 million people quitting their old job, where-as a healthy job market, a 200K net job growth is really 5 million 'new' hires on 4.8 million people quitting their old job.

FCBs are buyers, not sellers.  100% equity owners, they exist, but they're not the whole market, there's a big chunk of the supply that's move up, move over or move down.    Well the move up and move over is going to a fraction of it's healthy market level. That means the imbalance that creates very strong seller's market will remain.
 
Tyler Durden said:
If they can go from their first place straight into the $1M+ range, then they are loving life  ;)

I don't know about that. I think they are still disappointed in what $1mm+ buys you in Irvine nowadays and how much they have to spend on upgrades to get an interior and exterior that feels like a million bucks.
 
Tyler Durden said:
That part i agree on... what i was getting at is that its really difficult to go from your first place to a purchase in the $1M+ range.  That means the buyers would either have to have enough equity or savings to produce the down payment.  As well as cover the egregious tax bills!

Its really tough to do that as a younger buyer, since most folks income peaks during their 50's.

True. I had saved up over $200K by the time I was 25 but a lot of it was in 401Ks that would have been heavily taxed / penalized if I tried to use it for a downpayment.
 
irvinehomeowner said:
paperboyNC said:
True. I had saved up over $200K by the time I was 25...
Dang... paper boys make a lot in NC.
... but a lot of it was in 401Ks that would have been heavily taxed / penalized if I tried to use it for a downpayment.
You can loan it to yourself.

I was good at poker in college.

Loans aren't a good idea since you have to pay them back in full immediately if you leave the job and some of my 401ks were from prior jobs.

 
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