So long 4.x%...it was nice knowing ya!

Jumpcut - 5 days or so for appraisals. Yes, if the value is low on a conventional we run an Automated Value Model (AVM) to see if this is really far off, and if so a second appraisal can be ordered. Once a lender gets a bad taste in their mouth from a low value appraisal, getting turned around is akin to a miraculous event. It happens, but so do faith healings every so often.



Google HVCC or look at the comments on ML Implode by lenders running into this buzzsaw.



USC Trojan - One rate sheet at 8:00 and a reprice for the better by 10:00. Let's hope I am right on the rate direction. This makes 6 improving ratesheets in 48 hours.



Conforming -0- point was at 6.0%, today at 5.75

Jumbo Conforming -0- point was at 6.625, today at 6.00%



All assuming 45 day rate locks, 20% down, FICO's above 740 and SFD purchases. I'd list all of the disclosures, mouse print, and weasel out clauses but who has the time...Equal Housing Lender.



My .02c



Soylent Green Is People
 
[quote author="Soylent Green Is People" date=1244856136] This makes 6 improving ratesheets in 48 hours.



Conforming -0- point was at 6.0%, today at 5.75

</blockquote>


Pricing and action in the RE market is reflective of the recent 4.75% rates.



The shift to 6% and now trickle down to 5.75% hasn't registered.



give it time...



and give the 6% time. The Fed meeting is going to be interesting and California is looking like a juggernaut coming for end of July.



You may be wishing for 6% in two months...
 
An update....



Three rate sheets today, all for the better.



5.500 standard conforming, -0- points. 5.250 for 1.0 point (on average, of course)



Essentially 1/2 percent lower since the thread started.





Remember: Tuesday is Soylent Green Day!



SGIP.
 
[quote author="Soylent Green Is People" date=1245210164]An update....



Three rate sheets today, all for the better.



5.500 standard conforming, -0- points. 5.250 for 1.0 point (on average, of course)



Essentially 1/2 percent lower since the thread started.





Remember: Tuesday is Soylent Green Day!



SGIP.</blockquote>
As I predicted, treasuries would pull back going into the Fed meeting. As much, picked up 10 TBT July puts.
 
<a href="http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/06/we-have-mortgage-lift-off.html">Nice day for the mortgage market</a> ... <strong>NOT!</strong>
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1245384217]<a href="http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/06/we-have-mortgage-lift-off.html">Nice day for the mortgage market</a> ... <strong>NOT!</strong></blockquote>
The 10-year yield was up 19 basis points today, over a 5% gain, even though equities had a nothing day. I think rates are just looking for any excuse to run up. I'll bet Soylent had a couple printouts for the worse today...
 
LWP - Yes, we had three for the worse, then two for the better - net .125 worse in rate. Not a catastrophe.



10Y T rates are an indicator of the direction in rates. FNMA Mortgage Backed Securities are what drive rates. You can have a 3.9 10yT with a rally in opposite direction of the FNMA 4.0MBS depending on circumstance.



With a new 104b supply line choking up the pipes, Our Chinese Overlords (OCO) will ask again for an uppper 3.0% rate of return. As I adjust my tinfoil chapeau, once OCO are taken care of with this debt offering we'll see an average 5.25% or lower rate come back.



My .02



Soylent Green Is People.
 
[quote author="Soylent Green Is People" date=1245461690]LWP - Yes, we had three for the worse, then two for the better - net .125 worse in rate. Not a catastrophe.



10Y T rates are an indicator of the direction in rates. FNMA Mortgage Backed Securities are what drive rates. You can have a 3.9 10yT with a rally in opposite direction of the FNMA 4.0MBS depending on circumstance.



With a new 104b supply line choking up the pipes, Our Chinese Overlords (OCO) will ask again for an uppper 3.0% rate of return. As I adjust my tinfoil chapeau, once OCO are taken care of with this debt offering we'll see an average 5.25% or lower rate come back.



My .02



Soylent Green Is People.</blockquote>


Sorry, I think the Fed is buying instead of the Chicoms these days.
 
To update.



5.375 conforming as of 7/8/09 -0- points



5.0% at 1.0 point



4.875 7/8/09 at 1.5 points



Assumes 720 higher FICO, SFD purchase.



The "green shoots" recovery has browned out so cash is flowing into mortgages and treasuries driving rates back down.





My .02c



Soylent Green is People.
 
Just resurrecting an old thread.





11/16/09 Pretty much everything is in the 4's now from Jumbo Conforming, standard conforming, FHA insured loans - not at zero points, but still much lower than before.



I saw a 15 year fixed for 2.0 points today at 3.875%. I'm sure some Internet site will be showing 3.5% in the next 48 - 72 hours.



You got me why this is going on. With relatively huge gains in stocks, mortgage bonds should be reversing. This may be a temporary parking of cash to try and capture some yield. It's not the Fed that's for sure.



The all time low was in March, when many people captured a 30 fixed for 4.25-4.125%. I'd have to say that was the absolute bottom. We're not likely to see anything lower than that. Cost of money is .50 to 1.0, cost of servicing is 1.0 or so. The balance of profit in a 4.0% rate is 1.5% to 2.0%. That's a very narrow margin. Because of this I don't really see things drifting below 4.0% without significant costs involved.



My .02c



Soylent Green Is People
 
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