slow down in all cash buyers from mainland China

Fake legal dispute.  Haha, haven't heard that one before as a way to get money out.

Did I read it correctly, $1 trillion in capital flight, wow
 
In Malaysia they had a surge of folks from India buying real estate, so they bumped the minimum price requirement for foreigners (to protect local affordable housing):

Selangor - RM 1-2 million (depending on zone)
Terengganu ? RM 1 million
Johor ? RM 1 million
Pahang ? RM 1 million
Kuala Lumpur ? RM 1 million
Negeri Sembilan ? RM 1 million
Putrajaya ? RM 1 million
Kedah ? RM 1 million
Kelantan ? RM 1 million
Sabah ? RM 1 million
Perlis ? RM 500k
Melaka RM 500K-1 million
Pulau Pinang ? RM 500k
Perak ? RM 350k
Serawak ? RM 350k

RM 1 million = ~$225K USD.

About 12 years ago foreigners were still allowed to buy condos as cheap as $25K USD in KL.  Now the minimum is $225K USD.  I should kick myself for not selling a condo here back then and buying in KL (MY) or Makati (PH).

If US follow similar policy the minimum property price requirement probably wouldn't affect Irvine or Arcadia's million dollar home market much.
 
Pavilion park is a bunch of new listings listing prices way lower than they have been last year some $435 a sq foot the downturn has begun
 
YellowFever said:
Read the article carefully as I've said this in the past on TI:

?Rich people,? said Chou, an immigrant from Taiwan who has lived in Arcadia for more than 30 years, ?will always find a way to get their money out.?

Chou must be a money launderer himself... ;)

No matter what, the chinks will always find a way to get their money out one way or another.

The chinks? Hilarious. Nice picture by the way. Did some Chinese guy bang your girlfriend? Why so bitter?

>:D
 
YellowFever said:
No matter what, the chinks will always find a way to get their money out one way or another.

Is this supposed to be funny? Racist names, no matter your ethnicity, is uncalled for.
 
renter1 said:
Pavilion park is a bunch of new listings listing prices way lower than they have been last year some $435 a sq foot the downturn has begun

Has it though? I'm not sure how accurate or good the data is on Trulia but you could argue that there is positive momentum for the real estate market. Fed signaling hikes, 10 year treasuries in new higher ranges since November maybe encouraging buyers to jump into to the market before the rates go up even higher.

Also, existing home sales and new home sales were up nicely with existing hitting best levels in 10 years! Anticipated tax cuts next year, so families are willing to make an investment in a home because of higher expected disposable income. I think this can continue for another year or two...no data to back up my claims, maybe more. I'm really interested in this because I'd love to be the lucky guy who sells at the right time before prices come down, then buy again!

As far as Irvine and data, looks like 1 BD condos are the perfect investment - at least three months ago. Prices are up double digit percentages and renting them out seems too be good as well. Inventory is low?

What do you guys think?



 

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eatthis said:
YellowFever said:
No matter what, the chinks will always find a way to get their money out one way or another.

Is this supposed to be funny? Racist names, no matter your ethnicity, is uncalled for.

Yep, not funny at all.  That's the Chinese equivalent to the N word...watch yourself buddy.  You're lucky this is an anonymous message board

Racial slurs even as jokes have real consequences in the work force, just fyi...just ask the espn editor who was fired for the "chink in the armor" title for a Jeremy lin article
http://deadspin.com/5886504/fired-e...-in-the-armor-headline-not-intended-as-a-slur
 
SoclosetoIrvine said:
eatthis said:
YellowFever said:
No matter what, the chinks will always find a way to get their money out one way or another.

Is this supposed to be funny? Racist names, no matter your ethnicity, is uncalled for.

Yep, not funny at all.  That's the Chinese equivalent to the N word...watch yourself buddy.  You're lucky this is an anonymous message board

Racial slurs even as jokes have real consequences in the work force, just fyi...just ask the espn editor who was fired for the "chink in the armor" title for a Jeremy lin article
http://deadspin.com/5886504/fired-e...-in-the-armor-headline-not-intended-as-a-slur

I don't see chink as being as offensive as the N word.
 
Yellow, since you've thrown a rock into a hornets' nest again, I suspect you will be changing your forum handle soon.  May I make a suggestion.  I think "Doggy Style" would suit you perfectly.
 
That picture was offensive and I found the article about it:
http://www.azcentral.com/story/news...chool-girl-n-word-shirt-controversy/82230696/

Although meant as a joke (one of the girls has a black boyfriend who she sent the picture to), this did not go well for them:

What they've lost

The days after the photo were chaos. The girls received endless media attention, as well as harassment and some online threats of violence. Each of the girls' families found a lawyer and a public-relations agent to help them.

All six girls were suspended for at least 10 days and are finishing their high school classes through the district's online option. It's a sort of "unofficial expulsion," according to multiple people interviewed for this story, including Bri Handy, who created the change.org petition to have the girls expelled.

Handy marked her petition completed Feb. 26 after more than 50,000 people signed it. She said a source within the district told her that "the six students of this fiasco have not and will not be returning to the school."

At least three other students also were punished for their involvement with the photo, according to the Rev. Jarrett Maupin, a civil-rights activist who has been involved in the incident's fallout.

Many of the girls have posted on social media about taking classes only online, and one posted that administrators said they could not attend the official grad-night party on May 19 even though it's after their suspension date, suggesting she or they may have been suspended for more than 10 days.

They've been banned from school functions, including championship games for the sports teams to which they belonged, dances such as Sadie Hawkins and prom, and likely their own graduation.

Handy said none of the girls will walk at graduation, while Maupin said he was unsure.

Two of the girls were on the varsity soccer team, which won the school's first girls soccer state championship since 2005 this spring without them.

At least one of them, who was the team captain, had verbally committed to play soccer for Northern Arizona University, but the school withdrew its offer. Had the incident occurred after national signing day, a commitment could have protected that opportunity.

One was on the girls' varsity track and field team. Another had been on the varsity dance line for two years ? last year she was part of the group that performed with Katy Perry during the Super Bowl halftime show ? but lost the chance to compete with the school in the 30th Annual Arizona State Cheer and Pom Tournament in March.

Rachel Steigerwald, who is the "R" in the photo and the only one of the girls to apologize publicly, posts often about sadness and regret. She wrote that she was heartbroken when she was banned from attending Relay for Life in April, an event in which hundreds of people walk the school's track overnight to raise money for the American Cancer Society.

Maupin questions whether it had to be this way.

"It might have been good legal advice with respect to limiting disciplinary actions of the district but I think ? the court of public opinion would have been a lot more merciful had they seen a unified apology" from all of the girls, he said.
 
Fxguy said:
renter1 said:
Pavilion park is a bunch of new listings listing prices way lower than they have been last year some $435 a sq foot the downturn has begun

Has it though? I'm not sure how accurate or good the data is on Trulia but you could argue that there is positive momentum for the real estate market. Fed signaling hikes, 10 year treasuries in new higher ranges since November maybe encouraging buyers to jump into to the market before the rates go up even higher.

Also, existing home sales and new home sales were up nicely with existing hitting best levels in 10 years! Anticipated tax cuts next year, so families are willing to make an investment in a home because of higher expected disposable income. I think this can continue for another year or two...no data to back up my claims, maybe more. I'm really interested in this because I'd love to be the lucky guy who sells at the right time before prices come down, then buy again!

As far as Irvine and data, looks like 1 BD condos are the perfect investment - at least three months ago. Prices are up double digit percentages and renting them out seems too be good as well. Inventory is low?

What do you guys think?

I'm going to add a little color and detail to your post.  First off, resale inventory levels have DROPPED since Jan so we are going in the wrong direction on inventory.  Back in late Jan we add a little over 400 active MLS listing and as of today we were down to 380 which is right around 2 months of inventory (the low point of inventory will be that week between Christmas and New Years day and that amount was about 315).  So we are going in the wrong direction when it comes to inventory which is becoming a tailwind for sellers and there are more and more multiple offer situations out there, especially on sub $1m listings that are priced right.  In my opinion, inventory levels are the one big thing to watch as an indicator of where prices may go in the near future.  As a point of reference, back in 2013 when we had the big 20% run-up in prices there was about 1 month of inventory of resale homes on the market (low point was 3 weeks of inventory). 

On the rental front, I personally witnessed an 8-10% rental price increase from 2015 to 2016 but on my own personal rentals and my rental listings.  On 2 of my rental listings in 2016 I got $100 a month more than the asking rental amount, mainly because I had 6-10 rental applications in a week.  Good rentals go off the market faster than good for sale properties because the rental market is that strong today (driven by the strong macro/job market). 
 
Another thing that I've been noticing more and more of in the past year or so is investor activity.  I pretty much get at least 1 investor offer on all of my listings.  My late 2016 listings (40 Ardmore, 23 Rue Du Parc, and 24 Magellan Aisle) were all purchased by investors who outbid buyers looking to occupy the home. 
 
renter1 said:
Pavilion park is a bunch of new listings listing prices way lower than they have been last year some $435 a sq foot the downturn has begun

Thinking like this that will make you a forever renter. Watch and see the prices goes thru the roof between now and 5 years. By then even if prices adjust downward, you still cant get what you want. Nothing wrong with renting, though.
 
USCTrojanCPA said:
Fxguy said:
renter1 said:
Pavilion park is a bunch of new listings listing prices way lower than they have been last year some $435 a sq foot the downturn has begun

Has it though? I'm not sure how accurate or good the data is on Trulia but you could argue that there is positive momentum for the real estate market. Fed signaling hikes, 10 year treasuries in new higher ranges since November maybe encouraging buyers to jump into to the market before the rates go up even higher.

Also, existing home sales and new home sales were up nicely with existing hitting best levels in 10 years! Anticipated tax cuts next year, so families are willing to make an investment in a home because of higher expected disposable income. I think this can continue for another year or two...no data to back up my claims, maybe more. I'm really interested in this because I'd love to be the lucky guy who sells at the right time before prices come down, then buy again!

As far as Irvine and data, looks like 1 BD condos are the perfect investment - at least three months ago. Prices are up double digit percentages and renting them out seems too be good as well. Inventory is low?

What do you guys think?

I'm going to add a little color and detail to your post.  First off, resale inventory levels have DROPPED since Jan so we are going in the wrong direction on inventory.  Back in late Jan we add a little over 400 active MLS listing and as of today we were down to 380 which is right around 2 months of inventory (the low point of inventory will be that week between Christmas and New Years day and that amount was about 315).  So we are going in the wrong direction when it comes to inventory which is becoming a tailwind for sellers and there are more and more multiple offer situations out there, especially on sub $1m listings that are priced right.  In my opinion, inventory levels are the one big thing to watch as an indicator of where prices may go in the near future.  As a point of reference, back in 2013 when we had the big 20% run-up in prices there was about 1 month of inventory of resale homes on the market (low point was 3 weeks of inventory). 

On the rental front, I personally witnessed an 8-10% rental price increase from 2015 to 2016 but on my own personal rentals and my rental listings.  On 2 of my rental listings in 2016 I got $100 a month more than the asking rental amount, mainly because I had 6-10 rental applications in a week.  Good rentals go off the market faster than good for sale properties because the rental market is that strong today (driven by the strong macro/job market).

USC, in your opinion, is there a bifurcated real estate market in Irvine right now?

I feel like large SFRs, 1.5M+ price point seems pretty cold with lots and lots of inventory sitting for a long time. I'm pretty sure that if I tried to sell my primary home right now, I'd lose money (closed about a year ago), and there's also no way I'd be able to rent it out and cover my PITIA cost, even after a 40%+ downpayment. Luckily, I don't have any plans to move for the next 15-20 years.

On the other hand, I recently bought a 2/2 condo for my parents, and that market was insane, lots of properties going at list price, very short time on market, rents now around $2500 a month in that category, whereas you can rent a 4BR house 3 times the size for less than double that monthly rent.

 
nyc to oc said:
USCTrojanCPA said:
Fxguy said:
renter1 said:
Pavilion park is a bunch of new listings listing prices way lower than they have been last year some $435 a sq foot the downturn has begun

Has it though? I'm not sure how accurate or good the data is on Trulia but you could argue that there is positive momentum for the real estate market. Fed signaling hikes, 10 year treasuries in new higher ranges since November maybe encouraging buyers to jump into to the market before the rates go up even higher.

Also, existing home sales and new home sales were up nicely with existing hitting best levels in 10 years! Anticipated tax cuts next year, so families are willing to make an investment in a home because of higher expected disposable income. I think this can continue for another year or two...no data to back up my claims, maybe more. I'm really interested in this because I'd love to be the lucky guy who sells at the right time before prices come down, then buy again!

As far as Irvine and data, looks like 1 BD condos are the perfect investment - at least three months ago. Prices are up double digit percentages and renting them out seems too be good as well. Inventory is low?

What do you guys think?

I'm going to add a little color and detail to your post.  First off, resale inventory levels have DROPPED since Jan so we are going in the wrong direction on inventory.  Back in late Jan we add a little over 400 active MLS listing and as of today we were down to 380 which is right around 2 months of inventory (the low point of inventory will be that week between Christmas and New Years day and that amount was about 315).  So we are going in the wrong direction when it comes to inventory which is becoming a tailwind for sellers and there are more and more multiple offer situations out there, especially on sub $1m listings that are priced right.  In my opinion, inventory levels are the one big thing to watch as an indicator of where prices may go in the near future.  As a point of reference, back in 2013 when we had the big 20% run-up in prices there was about 1 month of inventory of resale homes on the market (low point was 3 weeks of inventory). 

On the rental front, I personally witnessed an 8-10% rental price increase from 2015 to 2016 but on my own personal rentals and my rental listings.  On 2 of my rental listings in 2016 I got $100 a month more than the asking rental amount, mainly because I had 6-10 rental applications in a week.  Good rentals go off the market faster than good for sale properties because the rental market is that strong today (driven by the strong macro/job market).

USC, in your opinion, is there a bifurcated real estate market in Irvine right now?

I feel like large SFRs, 1.5M+ price point seems pretty cold with lots and lots of inventory sitting for a long time. I'm pretty sure that if I tried to sell my primary home right now, I'd lose money (closed about a year ago), and there's also no way I'd be able to rent it out and cover my PITIA cost, even after a 40%+ downpayment. Luckily, I don't have any plans to move for the next 15-20 years.

On the other hand, I recently bought a 2/2 condo for my parents, and that market was insane, lots of properties going at list price, very short time on market, rents now around $2500 a month in that category, whereas you can rent a 4BR house 3 times the size for less than double that monthly rent.

Homes in the sweet spot of affordability range (500 - 900K) are definitely on fire right now in the Irvine area. My two recent listings in that range both got multiple offers and one went for over list. I attribute that to low inventory levels and points made by USCTrojanCPA and Fxguy above.

The mid-lux range that you are talking about was pretty cold towards the middle and end of 2016, however much of that was due to overly optimistic realtors pricing in a way to try and "get tomorrow's price today". Like anything else, nice homes that are priced right even in the $1.5 - $2mm range are going pretty quick all things considered. I've been keeping an eye on the larger SFRs in Northwood Estates and have been surprised at how quickly they're moving.
 
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