Show me The Bloodbath -- Not seeing it in Laguna Beach

C

chaiki_IHB

New member
My family and I do not live in Orange County but we vacation here for a short time around Christmas and for a month or so in the Summer. We like the area very much. I have stumbled onto the IHB several times researching Real Estate in the area and like others here, I have been waiting for prices in the desirable areas to reflect the floundering credit and equity markets and the difficult state of the economy.



Surprisingly the most tasty locations near the water in Laguna Beach, Newport Coast/Beach and CDM have not only held their value but in my opinion, actually increased in price. Homes in Irvine Cove, homes on the better streets near the nicer beaches in Laguna proper and on the Islands in the harbour and some streets in CDM are up -- Way up even. So what gives?



I should have bought a place in 2006.. some of the prices have gone up 30% in the last 12 months since the credit markets supposedly broke down



Are the rich immune from this stuff or are they just so freaked out about holding cash in their banks that they'd rather hold clear title real estate than keep their money at the mercy of the FDIC?



There is a huge disconnect at the top end of the market that very few are discussing and I'd love to hear anyone who has an opinion on wtf is causing this.
 
If you can afford to buy in the areas you listed then you already know the answer.



If you don't know the answer, you can't afford the area.
 
Did you mean this bloodbath?



Auction 1087 FLAMINGO RD 644-162-47 Single Family 1960 900 0 2 1 $1,088,892.00

Auction 1095 LA MIRADA ST 644-435-01 Single Family 1968 1,045 2,500 2 2 $1,100,826.00

Auction 1198 NORIA ST 644-406-01 Single Family 1968 918 4,320 3 2 $1,060,736.00

Auction 1641 GLENNEYRE ST 644-215-02 Single Family 1922 911 2,500 2 1 $1,046,638.00

Auction 2042 HIDDEN VALLEY CANYON RD 641-421-34 Single Family 0 0 0 0 0 $473,150.00

Auction 2100 CRESTVIEW DR MLT:644-291-69 Single Family 0 0 5,100 0 0 $791,190.00

Auction 21052 RAQUEL RD 632-051-11 Single Family 1961 1,243 7,520 3 2 $742,619.00

Auction 21062 STAN OAK DR 632-061-10 Single Family 0 0 0 0 0 $496,282.00

Auction 21701 WESLEY DR D 934-060-54 Condominum 0 0 0 0 0 $1,247,639.00

Auction 2255 CRESTVIEW DR 644-293-28 Single Family 0 0 0 0 0 $406,496.00

Auction 23424 VIA SAN PABLO 621-161-24 Single Family 1971 1,240 2,264 3 2 $266,474.00

Auction 24816 VIA SAN MARCO 621-161-33 Single Family 1971 1,240 2,446 3 2 $267,342.00

Auction 272 CANYON ACRES DR 641-181-55 Single Family 0 0 0 0 0 $1,625,468.00

Auction 275 DIAMOND ST 644-274-09 Single Family 1941 1,422 5,000 2 2 $1,440,384.00

Auction 3038 MOUNTAIN VIEW DR 641-031-24 Single Family 1965 2,038 8,000 4 4 $1,007,566.00

Auction 30512 PASEO DEL VALLE 659-032-03 Single Family 1977 2,961 15,125 4 3.5 $1,180,494.00

Auction 31214 CEANOTHUS DR 056-051-37 Single Family 0 0 6,630 0 0 $2,161,956.00

Auction 3164 TYROL DR 641-022-09 Single Family 1965 1,836 7,650 4 3 $928,738.00

Auction 387 CYPRESS DR 3 895-240-03 Single Family 1956 792 0 1 1 $496,672.00

Auction 425 RUBY ST 644-287-18 Single Family 0 0 0 0 0 $1,256,797.00

Auction 521 SEAVIEW ST 644-095-04 Single Family 1915 438 2,802 2 1 $530,545.00

Auction 6 S STONINGTON RD 056-212-23 Single Family 1972 1,390 6,000 3 2.5 $952,190.00

Auction 926 VAN DYKE DR 644-232-17 Single Family 1949 1,080 5,100 4 1 $1,143,262.00

Auction 988 NORIA ST 644-442-21 Single Family 1970 855 0 3 2 $1,121,978.00

Bank Owned 1000 FERNANDO AVE 644-417-03 Single Family 0 0 2,500 0 0 $0.00

Bank Owned 1005 BALBOA AVE 644-472-14 Single Family 1975 1,322 2,375 2 1.5 $1,213,463.00

Bank Owned 1060 FLAMINGO RD 644-162-41 Single Family 1965 1,280 9,600 3 2 $1,383,262.00

Bank Owned 1420 DEL MAR AVE 644-406-11 Single Family 0 0 2,867 0 0 $1,103,593.00

Bank Owned 1730 THURSTON DR 641-381-01 Single Family 1957 1,371 12,600 3 2 $1,151,692.00

Bank Owned 23565 EL CERRITO 621-163-32 Single Family 1971 1,240 2,264 3 2 $266,474.00

Bank Owned 32146 COAST HWY 056-153-13 Single Family 1947 800 3,750 2 1 $659,264.00

Bank Owned 362 PINECREST DR 053-141-25 Single Family 1963 3,195 0 4 3 $1,958,413.00

Bank Owned 888 SUMMIT DR 644-245-01 Single Family 1976 800 5,167 3 2.5 $1,064,536.00

Bank Owned 900 ORIOLE DR 644-162-63 Single Family 0 0 6,797 0 0 $250,353.00

Preforeclosure 1032 TIA JUANA ST 644-472-18 Single Family 1987 2,622 5,000 2 2 $1,879,821.00

Preforeclosure 1053 SANTA ANA ST 644-462-07 Single Family 1973 643 2,500 3 2.5 $877,359.00

Preforeclosure 106 SANTA ROSA CT 934-500-80 Condominum 1986 1,340 0 3 2.5 $486,966.00

Preforeclosure 1130 SUMMIT DR 644-391-09 Single Family 0 0 5,200 0 0 $3,549,655.00

Preforeclosure 1188 VICTORY WALK 641-222-26 Single Family 1928 342 3,777 1 1 $1,033,062.00

Preforeclosure 1260 CLIFF DR 053-151-13 Single Family 1966 1,660 2,242 3 3 $1,141,762.00

Preforeclosure 1363 MORNINGSIDE DR 644-331-03 Single Family 1964 1,945 12,100 2 2 $1,747,051.00

Preforeclosure 15 SPICEWOOD 623-054-25 Single Family 1987 1,963 4,000 4 3 $560,026.00

Preforeclosure 1730 THURSTON DR 641-381-01 Single Family 1957 1,371 12,600 3 2 $1,151,692.00

Preforeclosure 20482 SUN VALLEY DR 629-051-14 Single Family 1949 721 68,825 1 1 $719,480.00

Preforeclosure 2160 S COAST HWY 644-283-10 Single Family 1924 1,388 7,500 5 1 $1,456,612.00

Preforeclosure 2161 GLENNEYRE ST 644-283-05 Single Family 1923 758 2,500 2 1 $949,627.00

Preforeclosure 217 SANTA ROSA CT 934-501-21 Condominum 1986 1,340 0 3 2.5 $470,935.00

Preforeclosure 21701 WESLEY DR D 934-060-54 Condominum 0 0 0 0 0 $1,247,639.00

Preforeclosure 241 NYES PL 656-164-17 Single Family 1947 883 2,871 2 2 $547,367.00

Preforeclosure 24421 RUE DE MONET 653-641-30 Single Family 1990 2,607 0 3 3 $800,834.00

Preforeclosure 2575 TEMPLE HILLS DR 641-122-03 Single Family 1965 1,970 7,500 3 2.5 $1,491,696.00

Preforeclosure 275 CAJON ST 053-124-04 Single Family 1922 448 0 2 2 $649,871.00

Preforeclosure 2755 SOLANA WAY 656-107-15 Single Family 0 0 0 0 0 $0.00

Preforeclosure 277 CANYON ACRES DR 641-201-13 Single Family 1940 889 10,000 3 2 $673,273.00

Preforeclosure 2829 ZELL DR 641-134-06 Single Family 1963 2,192 9,996 3 2 $1,465,723.00

Preforeclosure 28502 RANCHO CRISTIANO 654-471-24 Single Family 1987 2,493 5,500 4 3 $842,752.00

Preforeclosure 2938 ROUNSEVEL TER 656-167-26 Single Family 0 0 5,930 0 0 $1,476,108.00

Preforeclosure 30801 MARILYN DR 656-213-05 Single Family 1953 1,252 6,313 3 1 $698,745.00

Preforeclosure 31004 ALISO CIR 056-011-22 Single Family 1947 1,318 5,004 3 1 $697,258.00

Preforeclosure 31152 BROOKS ST 672-234-05 Multi Family 0 0 7,826 0 0 $0.00

Preforeclosure 31172 CEANOTHUS DR 056-051-80 Single Family 1937 2,212 20,000 3 2 $1,363,051.00

Preforeclosure 31332 MONTEREY ST 056-030-01 Single Family 1947 1,272 6,955 2 1.5 $865,273.00

Preforeclosure 31371 MONTEREY ST 056-031-06 Single Family 1965 2,590 7,000 4 3 $1,275,755.00

Preforeclosure 31503 MAR VISTA AVE 056-091-19 Single Family 0 0 8,120 0 0 $1,216,824.00

Preforeclosure 31721 SEACLIFF DR 658-101-19 Single Family 1982 4,701 13,944 4 5 $2,044,072.00

Preforeclosure 32146 COAST HWY 056-153-13 Single Family 1947 800 3,750 2 1 $659,264.00

Preforeclosure 404 SAN NICHOLAS CT 934-501-54 Condominum 1987 1,325 0 2 2.5 $465,973.00

Preforeclosure 430 LINDEN ST 496-171-17 Single Family 1939 810 6,125 2 2 $557,581.00

Preforeclosure 437 CYPRESS DR 496-121-08 Multi Family 1956 4,776 6,000 0 0 $384,057.00

Preforeclosure 445 BLUEBIRD CANYON DR 644-261-13 Single Family 1938 614 3,000 2 1.5 $885,513.00

Preforeclosure 45 BLUE LAGOON 656-182-45 Single Family 1964 1,700 1,026 2 3 $722,469.00

Preforeclosure 468 ASHTON DR 656-169-13 Single Family 0 0 7,650 0 0 $2,453,732.00

Preforeclosure 481 PARK AVE 644-042-12 Single Family 1935 711 2,850 1 1 $1,068,936.00

Preforeclosure 533 LOMBARDY LN 644-097-28 Single Family 1927 670 1,800 2 1 $620,843.00

Preforeclosure 629 ALTA VISTA WAY 656-143-45 Single Family 0 0 7,760 0 0 $1,317,068.00

Preforeclosure 671 VIRGINIA PARK DR 641-352-30 Single Family 1938 714 4,500 2 1 $518,296.00

Preforeclosure 688 S COAST HWY 644-036-16 Commercial 1973 7,040 9,500 0 0 $3,190,066.00

Preforeclosure 709 CANYON VIEW DR 644-121-01 Single Family 1945 1,331 8,624 4 1 $1,055,170.00

Preforeclosure 868 SANTA ANA ST 644-475-21 Single Family 1973 1,100 2,500 3 2 $1,129,002.00

Preforeclosure 895 BAJA ST 644-426-01 Single Family 0 0 2,500 0 0 $1,817,549.00

Preforeclosure 928 QUIVERA ST 644-466-17 Single Family 1989 1,766 2,500 3 2.5 $1,443,349.00
 
Ouch! I'm looking for the same thing in CDM. I see a few attempted short sales, but mostly just see continued WTF asking prices.
 
[quote author="chaiki" date=1217845916]. . . Surprisingly the most tasty locations near the water in Laguna Beach, Newport Coast/Beach and CDM have not only held their value but in my opinion, actually increased in price. Homes in Irvine Cove, homes on the better streets near the nicer beaches in Laguna proper and on the Islands in the harbour and some streets in CDM are up -- Way up even. So what gives?



I should have bought a place in 2006.. some of the prices have gone up 30% in the last 12 months since the credit markets supposedly broke down.</blockquote>


I would note that there is a difference between an asking price and a selling price. It may very well be that prices have increased because the homes are priced to equal the liens that need to be paid off rather than being reflective of a price that would actually sell the property to a willing buyer.
 
So, to "Irvine Realtor" .. I am not speaking to the under 2mm stuff way off the water, inland or on weenie lots.. I am talking about the thousands of properties that are really nice at and near the water.. And there are really "many thousands" of these properties up and down the 10-15 mile stretch between Balboa and Three-Arch Bay if you look closely. It's just that none of these "good" properties seem to be showing much stress or even listing.. They do not show as foreclosure on Redfin. I am talking about 8-30mm sales that have happened in Irvine Cove this year, which are wayyyyy up from 2006-7 levels when the supposed bubble burst.



Where is the pain? Where are the Ritz cove folks crying uncle in the south, Where are the harbor islanders listing good sized lots pari-pasu to their inland peers? Why has the top disconnected from the middle and bottom so completely? To "No_Such_Reality" .. I <u>can</u> afford it, but I really do not know the answer.



The good stuff in Emerald bay and Irvine Cove and on the water in our around Newport is not recoiling.. In 2008, lousier listings have replaced the good listings of 2006 and 2007; only at those good listing's 2006/7 prices. Is this some gigantic inflation effect at the top that has disconnected from the world of those who have to make mortgage payments?



I'm not being glib here, I ask because the answer means potential millions in savings, and I am genuinely puzzled that logic is being defied. If times are hard, <u>all</u> properties should suffer <u>somewhat</u> proportionally... a pattern should form. That is what happened in the early 90's in California? Why do things seem to be playing out differently in 2008 as it relates to properties in the best locations? Is it the Internet notifying buyers worldwide of the potential bargains to be found? In the olden days information moved slower and fewer people knew about the bargains. Today, anyone with a laptop can get the latest deal info in realtime... that, or the 'money in the bank not being safe '(FDIC thing) I alluded to at the top. Those are the only things I can think of.



Not sure what is going on but if anyone has some idea, I would love to hear. Genuine request from someone who has been looking for way to long..
 
Be patient. Everything that goes up, must come down, even real estate along the water in OC. These things don't happen over night.
 
[quote author="chaiki" date=1217858309]So, to "Irvine Realtor" .. I am not speaking to the under 2mm stuff way off the water, inland or on weenie lots.. I am talking about the thousands of properties that are really nice at and near the water.. And there are really "many thousands" of these properties up and down the 10-15 mile stretch between Balboa and Three-Arch Bay if you look closely. It's just that none of these "good" properties seem to be showing much stress or even listing.. They do not show as foreclosure on Redfin. I am talking about 8-30mm sales that have happened in Irvine Cove this year, which are wayyyyy up from 2006-7 levels when the supposed bubble burst.



Where is the pain? Where are the Ritz cove folks crying uncle in the south, Where are the harbor islanders listing good sized lots pari-pasu to their inland peers? Why has the top disconnected from the middle and bottom so completely? To "No_Such_Reality" .. I <u>can</u> afford it, but I really do not know the answer.



The good stuff in Emerald bay and Irvine Cove and on the water in our around Newport is not recoiling.. In 2008, lousier listings have replaced the good listings of 2006 and 2007; only at those good listing's 2006/7 prices. Is this some gigantic inflation effect at the top that has disconnected from the world of those who have to make mortgage payments?



I'm not being glib here, I ask because the answer means potential millions in savings, and I am genuinely puzzled that logic is being defied. If times are hard, <u>all</u> properties should suffer <u>somewhat</u> proportionally... a pattern should form. That is what happened in the early 90's in California? Why do things seem to be playing out differently in 2008 as it relates to properties in the best locations? Is it the Internet notifying buyers worldwide of the potential bargains to be found? In the olden days information moved slower and fewer people knew about the bargains. Today, anyone with a laptop can get the latest deal info in realtime... that, or the 'money in the bank not being safe '(FDIC thing) I alluded to at the top. Those are the only things I can think of.



Not sure what is going on but if anyone has some idea, I would love to hear. Genuine request from someone who has been looking for way to long..</blockquote>


First, if you check out this one IR2 posted "Preforeclosure 31721 SEACLIFF DR 658-101-19 Single Family 1982 4,701 13,944 4 5 $2,044,072.00", then you can't get much closer to the beach than that.



Second, you shouldn't lie that you are not from here. This is the intarwebs after all, and with your ignorance of the market, and with brushing off IR2 by saying he is posting less than premium properties in the beach area makes you seem like one of the many idiots, like Jimmy or TRS, on Lansner's blog.



Nice try, but here you can't hide here like you can hide behind Lansner's lack of desire to expose the fraudulent posters who say they are not from here, when in fact they are clearly and evidently from here. Oh... and sorry, but the high end is not immune, and you should try going to the foreclosure auction to see for yourself that it isn't. If you have been reading here for a while now, then you would know that. Ignorance is bliss, or the secret is to only think positive, right?
 
<a href="http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008/08/lenders-fear-second-wave-of-defaults.html">No area is immune.</a>



Read and learn, read and learn.
 
Chaiki


The realtors in Coto like to say that the high end, over $3 mil, buyers in Coto don't care what is happening in the rest of the real estate market and they don't care about the price. They say the higher end buyers are only concerned with buying a property which will impress their constituents.


I think the realtors are full of s___.


I can point out high end properties in Coto that have sat on the market for over a year. Some have lowered their asking, some have not.


And the fact that you, who purport to be able to afford the high end, are asking about prices, shows concern, interest, and desire to buy for less. You have even admitted to waiting to buy in order to get a better deal, which is the opposite of what the Coto realtors says is typical of the high end buyer.


But, I don't know anything about the high end in Laguna or Newport.
 
[quote author="chaiki" date=1217858309]So, to "Irvine Realtor" .. I am not speaking to the under 2mm stuff way off the water, inland or on weenie lots.. I am talking about the thousands of properties that are really nice at and near the water.. And there are really "many thousands" of these properties up and down the 10-15 mile stretch between Balboa and Three-Arch Bay if you look closely. It's just that none of these "good" properties seem to be showing much stress or even listing.. They do not show as foreclosure on Redfin. I am talking about 8-30mm sales that have happened in Irvine Cove this year, which are wayyyyy up from 2006-7 levels when the supposed bubble burst.



Where is the pain? Where are the Ritz cove folks crying uncle in the south, Where are the harbor islanders listing good sized lots pari-pasu to their inland peers? Why has the top disconnected from the middle and bottom so completely?



The good stuff in Emerald bay and Irvine Cove and on the water in our around Newport is not recoiling.. In 2008, lousier listings have replaced the good listings of 2006 and 2007; only at those good listing's 2006/7 prices. Is this some gigantic inflation effect at the top that has disconnected from the world of those who have to make mortgage payments?



I'm not being glib here, I ask because the answer means potential millions in savings, and I am genuinely puzzled that logic is being defied. If times are hard, <u>all</u> properties should suffer <u>somewhat</u> proportionally... a pattern should form. That is what happened in the early 90's in California? Why do things seem to be playing out differently in 2008 as it relates to properties in the best locations? Is it the Internet notifying buyers worldwide of the potential bargains to be found? In the olden days information moved slower and fewer people knew about the bargains. Today, anyone with a laptop can get the latest deal info in realtime... that, or the 'money in the bank not being safe '(FDIC thing) I alluded to at the top. Those are the only things I can think of.



Not sure what is going on but if anyone has some idea, I would love to hear. Genuine request from someone who has been looking for way to long..</blockquote>


If things play out as they did in the late 80's-early 90's, you very well may be right. A "ripping the bandaid off" type of pain would be quicker but tolerable for many on the high end. There is an order of magnitude that makes a difference, though, I would argue. I think the CS histogram shows the picture best. (I've added a 3% inflation point from Y2K, for reference, beginning arbitrarily/conveniently as the creators of the index did. We can argue about that figure at a later point.) The size and breadth of the peaks matters.



<img src="http://irvinerealtorsite.com/Caseshillermay08.JPG" alt="" />



During "big pain" or more importantly "long pain" is where we have historically seen the wheat separated from the chaff. Even the big money players can't tread water forever.



With that said, I am not big money. I think profette's bike would probably fetch more than my car if sold.



In the end, I guess we could ask the Vanderbilts for a history lesson. Call Anderson Cooper.
 
To the moderator: I can assure you this is not a fraudulent post! I am leasing a house in this area as a summer rental, hence my local IP address. I will post again from the next stop on my vacation and once again on my return home to verify. If you prefer to email me now at my signup address, simply place "irvine housing blog" in the subject line and I will provide my phone number so you can call me to verify.



The Seacliff address is the 'weenie lot' to which I refer and this is just 'one' property. Much of the stuff IR2 posted 'is' under 2mm and inland.. I have seen the good stuff at the top actually rise since last year. I would be pleased to provide some examples to you in same email as I don't wish to identify or disadvantage myself with local realtors who troll these posts.



I am still waiting, but during the past few years have been frustrated that there has been such a complete disconnect from the really desirable homes and everything else. One part of the market moving one way and the other in a completely opposite direction.



The Case-Shiller chart above is a perfect example. Many of the local properties within eyeshot of the water seem to completely be defying this curve.



Thanks very much to the others who commented..
 
Chaiki - If I was in that market and saw the increases you are seeing, I would try and connect with folks who are in the same market. The folks here in the IHB are knowledgable, but not too many are planning on buying in the over $3 mil range.
 
[quote author="graphrix" date=1217863728][quote author="chaiki" date=1217858309]

Why has the top disconnected from the middle and bottom so completely? To "No_Such_Reality" .. I <u>can</u> afford it, but I really do not know the answer.

<snip>

Not sure what is going on but if anyone has some idea, I would love to hear. Genuine request from someone who has been looking for way to long..</blockquote>
<snip>

Second, you shouldn't lie that you are not from here. This is the intarwebs after all, and with your ignorance of the market, and with brushing off IR2 by saying he is posting less than premium properties in the beach area makes you seem like one of the many idiots, like Jimmy or TRS, on Lansner's blog.



Nice try, but here you can't hide here like you can hide behind Lansner's lack of desire to expose the fraudulent posters who say they are not from here, when in fact they are clearly and evidently from here. <snip></blockquote>


Kudos to IHB as our new friend and poster thinks IHB is the best place to get real estate advice.



Apparently squeezing a multi-million dollar ocean front estate into his asset mix is such a trivial matter that even though he is likely a decamillionaire or better, we are his chosen information source. No hedge fund managers for him, dedicated account managers at Merrill, no trusted CPA, TAX advisor or vetted attorney to weigh in on the RE market. He's doing it raw, the old fashioned way. He's asking people he trusts!



I'm also am disheartened by the fact that our new posting decamillionaire friend is experiencing the same economic uncertainty, employment concerns and inflationary squeezes as the nation as a whole. Fueling the Bentley is expensive afterall and our decamillionaire friend, like many, is considering a hybrid. If the near fabulously rich are experiencing problems well, the working poor must be feeling extremely bleak.



Still, our decamillionaire friend has chutzpah! There will be no settling for a mere $2 million dollar place a block from the beach in Laguna! No! only beach front will do! He's a decamillionaire, maybe a hectomillionaire or centimillionaire, and coming from Ohama it's only natural that he should drop in beach front like his long time friend used to have before he sold it.



Apparently our decamillionaire friend is a bit nuevo-riche too. The money is obviously burning a hole in his pocket. He wants to buy a beach front place, even though he doesn't live here currently, and he wants to buy it now. Now! Now! Now!



Never mind our decamillionaire friend has the financial capital to live anywhere. That he has the wherewithal to move his business or employment without impact. That he could travel at leisure in style for the next year, or two, or ten while waiting for the right house at an appropriate price. He's a decamillionaire, he wants to buy now!



Like many non-owners, non-decamillionaires, that are merely jealous of the wealth created and superior lifestyle of the homeowners, our decamillionaire friend is afraid he's been priced out forever. Oh wait, he's a decamillionaire and can afford it! He's not priced out! He's just smart and doesn't want to pay too much! But alas, the high end will never fall!!!! He should buy now cause it's going up! It's just going to keep going up can't all you poor jealous renters or minor hovel dwellers see that. The high end is immune. It's not coming down. It never will. If you want high end, you got to buy now or be priced out forever!







My original snark point stands.
 
I'm not keen on jumping into this blood bath of a thread and potentially risking the ire of the Heads of State here at IHB but...I've been wondering the same thing as the original poster.



As I've stated in other threads I have been keeping an eye on the high end properties in Newport and Newport Coast and they don't seem to be falling. It seems inconceivable to me that they truly are immune but I keep waiting for the carnage and it hasn't happened yet.



I've wondered if it was because buyers at that end aren't affected by the credit crunch because they aren't dependent on credit to purchase? The op's theory that the web is providing information to a world wide market so foreign investors may be buying prime real estate is an interesting thought.



I do understand that most posters here aren't in the market for multi-million dollar homes (I certainly never will be) so they don't monitor it as closely as other markets. But it doesn't seem unreasonable to ask about the effect of the housing crisis on these markets - especially since Irvine is surrounded by some of the most desirable ocean front real estate in the country. That's got to make it slightly interesting to the IHB audience, no?
 
Sacrenter, in a nutshell:



0. they have substantial assets

1. they aren't as dependent on credit

2. their incomes are still going up

3. their wealth is still largely at 2006 levels or above

4. their numbers are unchanged or growing. Those that bust out are replaced by someone else climbing into the wealth stratosphere.



Their markets are still plagued by speculators and homeowners that got caught over extending themselves to make a super deal, however, doing a walk-away when you're upside down $200,000 on an option-ARM when you make $100,000 a year and only have a 401K for savings wih $30,000 in credit card debt is easy. Walking away when you are $500,000 upside down make $250,000 and have a million in the bank is harder.



When it's a $4 million dollar beach front place that is upside down a million and you've got ten million in the bank, walking away is like saying I'm going to take a 10% loss on my entire portfolio. Those that are exposed are the people making $250,000 - $500,000 and struggled into a $3 million dollar loan because frankly, they think they are rich.
 
[quote author="SacRenter" date=1217893356]Heads of State here at IHB

</blockquote>


giggle...



giggle...



all-out belly laugh



:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
 
chaiki,



the phenomenon you're noticing really isn't that odd but it doesn't mean there's a huge disconnect. case in point, i walked into the bugatti dealership yesterday and offered $900k for the $1-million Veyron. i figure it's a car buyers mkt right now given no one in the right mind is buying gas guzzling supercars that get 5 mpg. they countered with $1.5-million and said they might consider putting me on their 3-yr waiting list. then they laughed me out the door. so are the thousands of new reports about the struggling auto industry completely wrong or were the salesmen full of it?



obviously, the answer is neither. it's apples and oranges. sales of supercars are hardly a function of gas prices just like sales of private islands in the caribbean aren't depending a good haul of conch this season. same goes for these homes you're referring to.



while it looks like theres thousands of beautiful homes dotting the coastline, keep in mind they are EXTREMELY rare in the grand scheme of things. if exclusive towns like newport and laguna are just 1% of OC homes, you're talking about the top 1% of homes in those towns -- neighborhoods in newport harbor, lido or balboa island, or on the oceanfront side of laguna. on top of that you seemed to refer to only the best homes in those neighborhoods, the ones with private docks on the harbor, right on the sand, or directly cliffside. emerald cove with panoramic ocean-front view on the inland side of PCH? psh, yawn. not good enough. we're talking right on the bluffs or sand where dolphins take pooping on your lawn. oh, and the lots can't be weeny, as you put it. all in all, these are maybe the top 0.000000001% of homes anywhere in the world. (i'm making those numbers up, but you get the point.)



so even if the wealthiest handful of people around the world want to buy one of these homes, there's probably not even enough of them to go around. they are extreme outliers of the housing market and quite honestly i don't know enough about that to say they're over or under-priced. in actuality, it's like trying to value artwork. it's worth 50k, next day some prince pays $10M for it, but next time around it sits at auction without a bid.



the problem stems from the thousands of mcmansion buyers in the tract developments who suddenly think they're the same as billionaires who share the same zip code.
 
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