Santa Ana Discussion Thread

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[quote author="NoWowway" date=1218164637]The Library issue has always baffled me, too. My instincts say that somehow, someone's friend/relative/business is benefiting from the city running the library and a half in SA. ...</blockquote>


Therein is the problem and the people don't care enough to address it.
 
SA is a modern version of Gotham City. It is a mess.



Anyone who thinks that it really doesn't matter where you live or whether the city functions well, is delusional. The reason some of us live in Irvine is EXACTLY the reaon we would never live in Santa Ana. Irvine's biggest controversial drama seems to be the big park. In Santa Ana inconsistent police response, rogue developers doing whatever they want w/immunity, potholes that have never been addressed in some areas for decades (despite the fact that city actually gets more infrastructure monies than many of the neighboring cities to address these problems), high fees and higher taxes and serial bond measures that are squandered... the list is huge. It really matters if you have an intelligent group on the city council who know how to hire decent city managers and who understand that planning, not just reacting, make for an organized city.



I like SA. I like the people there. I just think that it is full of clowns and crooks at the top.
 
[quote author="No_Such_Reality" date=1218164859][quote author="NoWowway" date=1218164637]The Library issue has always baffled me, too. My instincts say that somehow, someone's friend/relative/business is benefiting from the city running the library and a half in SA. ...</blockquote>


Therein is the problem and the people don't care enough to address it.</blockquote>


Is that the problem? Who is it?
 
[quote author="EvaLSeraphim" date=1218166030][quote author="No_Such_Reality" date=1218164859][quote author="NoWowway" date=1218164637]The Library issue has always baffled me, too. My instincts say that somehow, someone's friend/relative/business is benefiting from the city running the library and a half in SA. ...</blockquote>


Therein is the problem and the people don't care enough to address it.</blockquote>


Is that the problem? Who is it?</blockquote>


Perhaps I should say, ineffective at addressing it. Ineffective either through lack of knowledge, bamboozlement or apathy. But I'm talking about the city dysfunction in general.
 
Eva,



There are commissions for the library, but things just get "stuck" when it comes to addressing having a county system. There is so much nepotism in SA that it just "smells" like something else, besides fiduciary care for citizens at large, is associated with decisions regarding the library system.



I have not read or heard that this is fact. It is my skepticism poking in.
 
[quote author="No_Such_Reality date=1218167091

Perhaps I should say, ineffective at addressing it. Ineffective either through lack of knowledge, bamboozlement or apathy. But I'm talking about the city dysfunction in general.</blockquote>


Exactly. It is like watching a soap opera - a character is facing a life-changing decision and they wind up picking the solution that makes the situation a complete clusterf!ck. Faulty decision making and complete neglect of duty-of-care responsibilities for the collective, in the case of SA.
 
Rumors on the Orange Juice Blog today are that Skyline Place (couldn't find the previous Skyline topic) will become apartments. There are all sorts of crazy issues surrounding that possibility especially due to the "luxury" aspect of these condos and that several have already sold.
 
Hmm... Last thing I heard (from someone reasonably reputable, but four months ago) was that they were going to slap a skin on and halt all sales for a couple of years until the market recovers. I hope they got some waivers on their debt service if that's the case.



<a href="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/forums/viewthread/834/">Link to previous thread #1</a>



<a href="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/forums/viewthread/2462/">Link to previous thread #2.</a>



[Update: Broken link fixed.]
 
[quote author="EvaLSeraphim" date=1218412046]Hmm... Last thing I heard (from someone reasonably reputable, but four months ago) was that they were going to slap a skin on and halt all sales for a couple of years until the market recovers. I hope they got some waivers on their debt service if that's the case.



<a href="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/forums/viewthread/834/">Link to previous thread #1</a>



<a href="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/forums/viewthread/2462/">Link to previous thread #2.</a>



[Update: Broken link fixed.]</blockquote>


Did you mean the loan from <a href="http://www.buchananstreet.com/html/WhatsNew/Press/press_071806.asp">Buchanan Street Partners</a> or the one from Fremont (DOH!) or the one from Lehman?



Also, it looks like OJ reads the OCBJ, but since they are bastards and make you pay for their stories, I have no link. Anyway, the article touched a <em>rumor</em> of them becoming apartments, but the focus of the article was their project in Costa Mesa.



Get your political news at OJ, but get your housing news here.
 
[quote author="NoWowway" date=1218416022]Eva,



I just don't see who you are quoting about the skin comment.</blockquote>


That would be because I didn't mention it. If the people I talk to think I'm going to name names, then the amount of information I get will drop to zero. Neither I nor the person I spoke with have any dog in this fight, and the comment came up in the course of general conversation about various projects in OC. Nor do I believe that I have cornered the market on Truth.



And, of course, things change over time. What might have been a good tactic a few months ago may not be a good tactic now and the company may have changed course.
 
<a href="http://www.realtor.com/search/listingdetail.aspx?sby=2&ctid=2992&ml=3&mnp=16&mxp=15&bd=2&typ=2&sid=21be3b15fd704f10afd6c4b441e1bf91&lid=1100588358&lsn=6&srcnt=6#Detail">627 N Bristol #27</a>



REO priced to $72,900 with no offers in 90 days. ($103/sqft.)



Estimating rent at $900 for this area...



What am I missing? Anyone familiar with this one?



penciled <a href="http://irvinerealtorsite.com/627NBristol.xls"><strong>here</strong></a>
 
[quote author="IrvineRealtor" date=1221894902]<a href="http://www.realtor.com/search/listingdetail.aspx?sby=2&ctid=2992&ml=3&mnp=16&mxp=15&bd=2&typ=2&sid=21be3b15fd704f10afd6c4b441e1bf91&lid=1100588358&lsn=6&srcnt=6#Detail">627 N Bristol #27</a>



REO priced to $72,900 with no offers in 90 days. ($103/sqft.)



Estimating rent at $900 for this area...



What am I missing? Anyone familiar with this one?



penciled <a href="http://irvinerealtorsite.com/627NBristol.xls"><strong>here</strong></a></blockquote>


I don't think you are missing anything. The place would definitely rent for more than the mortgage, it is a money maker. I've seen a few in SA recently. Does anyone else think that we are possibly seeing some of the same things that happened during the Depression? I've read of dirt cheap property that was purchased by the rich (because no one else had money) and the huge wealth that was built on real estate during the Depression era. Maybe we're in for the same thing again. I don't know, but it's something to consider.
 
It appears to make money, but...



1. special assessments may wipe your return out for a year or more, not unlikely in an older complex like this.



2. HOA may go up, especially if many of the units stop paying them.



3. Rents may decline. $900 for a 1/1 seems ok right now, but clearly could drop as the economy declines. If it drops to $700, the return for less than 50% down goes to zero.



4. Alternately, your renters could need to share it with 4 people to make the rent, and this will trash the place.



5. What are the transaction costs?



6. If you cannot self-manage, how much would you have to pay for management? 20% will wipe out your profit, no?





Do you have a client who is considering it?
 
[quote author="freedomCM" date=1222248130]It appears to make money, but...



1. special assessments may wipe your return out for a year or more, not unlikely in an older complex like this.



2. HOA may go up, especially if many of the units stop paying them.



3. Rents may decline. $900 for a 1/1 seems ok right now, but clearly could drop as the economy declines. If it drops to $700, the return for less than 50% down goes to zero.



4. Alternately, your renters could need to share it with 4 people to make the rent, and this will trash the place.



5. What are the transaction costs?



6. If you cannot self-manage, how much would you have to pay for management? 20% will wipe out your profit, no?





Do you have a client who is considering it?</blockquote>


Good points, after I posted I realized that there may also be problems with the HOA. Are there any current lawsuits or common areas in disrepair that are being disputed? This could also spell big trouble.
 
[quote author="freedomCM" date=1222248130]

Do you have a client who is considering it?</blockquote>


Nope. The listing is with an agent in my office and I was trying to determine why it hasn't been picked up yet.

This is one of our REO specialists that does nothing but bank-owned listings right now.

Needless to say, he's swamped.



I was just asking to see if anyone here had some inside scoop on that particular area.



Thx,

-IR2
 
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