REOs Leased by Bank Considered Shadow Inventory?

[quote author="USCTrojanCPA" date=1253420778][quote author="Formerbanker" date=1253402691]I'm a long time reader but have never posted a comment on a forum thread. I found Newport Skipper's posts and the ensuing back and forth as entertaining reading...for about a week. S/he was then a complete turnoff to the point it became irritating to try to read a thread in which s/he was involved. I appreciate the ban.



To address some comments as to why banks would want to hold REO...and I am only speaking only from my own experience (former bank regulator turned credit risk manager whose duties included overseeing problem assets and REO disposition from early 90's - 2007) but - usually, you want that REO off the books as quick as possible. It is a nonperforming asset. Even if it's leased out, the return is terrible. Let's use a generous example of say, a property on the books for $500M rented for $2M/mo. That $24M a year in rent (assuming you actually collect it), after property tax, prop mgmt expense, maintenance reserve, etc., might be $12M - $15M at best, or maybe 2% return. That's generous. And there is a direct expense to the bank to write down the asset's value if it declines while on the bank's books (plus you need a new valuation on the thing probably every year). If that $500M asset declines to $480M, bam, an addiitional $20M loss.



However, the volume of REO's being handled now is just astronomical and most banks are still just trying to get their REO management systems working well enought to handle the volumes, identify assets that are due for writedowns, and all while using employees who are learning on the job (the REO handlers of the early 90's are largely gone, from what I've heard through many grapevines, not that there were near enough to go around for today's volumes). I have read similar comments from other posters in the past and based on all I hear from people working the front lines, it is still the case. And I believe there's not an accounting firm around that can keep up with whether or not bank clients have written down the asset values sufficiently based on the data available from their clients...sBottom line, the current environment is conducive to favoring the banks leasing these REO's while they buy time to figure out which end is up...and by the time they figure out how much they should write down, the banks are hoping values will stabilize and they won't have to write down as much after all, in my opinion.</blockquote>
Great post, thanks for sharing your thoughts and experience. I just wrapped up working on a 7+ month consulting project at a large regional bank where I would risk rate/downgrade commercial real estate loans. The bank had thousands of smaller commercial RE loans and did not have the staff to handle doing the loan reviews (when times were good there was no need to do reviews because everything was kicking ass). The bank is still staffing up their special assets department at the moment but they've gotten a better handle of what the issues are. They are also implementing Basel II to come up with an aggregate reserve of the tiny loans that will not get reviewed. I'm guesses there aren't many REO/special assets folks left from the 90s because it wasn't the most fun job around. I made calls to certain borrowers to try to get an idea of what was going on and see if maybe they might benefit from a loan mod but the tone from them was basically F-YOU. I've heard that many banks are considering of using consultants to assist them nowadays and with so many bankers on the street it seems to be working out for now.</blockquote>


Hmm, I wonder which bank:) But I agree with you...consultants with asset management and/or loan review experience will find plenty of work, particularly at the community and regional banks right now. Heck, I 'retired' about two years ago for personal reasons and still get calls regularly (it's a small world in SoCal banking at the small banks!).



In general, my experience is that borrowers (particularly on the CRE side) will cooperate if they've been trained to cooperate FROM THE START. But based on how CRE loans have been originated the last 10 years (loan origination often separated from loan management at inception), there was generally poor communication upfront by banks regarding the expectations - like, borrowers, we will want to inspect your properties annually, we expect updated operating statements, etc. even though most loan docs for CRE loans require borrowers to submit things like annual FS, rent rolls, etc. Their friendly loan officer forgot to focus on that:).



For borrowers for whom expectations were not clearly communicated from the start, you get stuck waiting until they need something from the bank (a late charge waiver, a payment deferral, a lower interest rate, or something) as your chance to get what you want from them. Or flat out offer them an easy mod with a 1/8 interest rate reduction if they give you updated operating statements, with the rate reverting back after one year if they do not give you the next year's statements.



From a personal perspective, if you do consulting work again, driving by the properties to check occupancy and condition provides a wealth of information!



And no, it's not really a fun job..it can be pretty draining mentally. But for every poor borrower you feel bad for due to life's circumstances causing financial problems, there is a jerk who could just care less about financial obligation to the bank. So I didn't mind being harsh. I would often file an NOD when a RE loan was 45 days past due - why wait for 90 days ? Did I get the borrowers' attention doing this? Yes. After all these years, I firmly believe that your first loss is your best loss...bite the bullet, get it over with, don't drag it out. But the level of crud in many portfolios today is so high...there's just not enough capital in these banks. We'd see bank failures left and right with my mantra.



If I were still in SoCal (I'm back east now and will be for a few more years) I'd be all over pulling together the folks I used to work with to put together a consulting group...so good luck with your future bank consulting work, if you chose to do it...you could be busy a long, long time...
 
Formerbanker, thanks for coming out of Lurkville. Your posts are a very welcome addition to IHB, and I hope you continue posting. Your insight into this part of the business is going to be invaluable the next few years. Especially if things do go like the 90s did, and banks finally got up to speed in processing their defaults. Does now remind you of 93? Low interest rates, sales increasing, and a huge foreclosure backlog... and if it is like the 90s and 95/96 are an indication of what 11/12 will be like... then the foreclosure numbers will dwarf any and all records.



Vivo lo rojo!
 
[quote author="USCTrojanCPA" date=1253420778]

I made calls to certain borrowers to try to get an idea of what was going on and see if maybe they might benefit from a loan mod but the tone from them was basically F-YOU.</blockquote>


Now that is hilarious. You are calling to try and help the borrower with a possible loan mod, and you get attitude? And even better, our resident bulls are so sure that loan mods are gonna make a difference in the trend of the declining real estate market. But, they believe.



Vivo lo rojo!
 
It is nice to get an insider's point of view. Thanks.

I remember way back when, 2006, when we were saying the residential real estate market and mortgage market and MBS market were going to take a tumble and we were naysayed and poo-pooed and ostracized and told we were nuts and pessimists and ignorant and blah, blah, blah.

And a very few insiders like lending maestro and IR and Graphrix, et al. would come in and give us the real scoop.

Thanks to all of you with real info and the willingness and guts to share it.
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1253427475][quote author="USCTrojanCPA" date=1253420778]

I made calls to certain borrowers to try to get an idea of what was going on and see if maybe they might benefit from a loan mod but the tone from them was basically F-YOU.</blockquote>


Now that is hilarious. You are calling to try and help the borrower with a possible loan mod, and you get attitude? And even better, our resident bulls are so sure that loan mods are gonna make a difference in the trend of the declining real estate market. But, they believe.



Vivo lo rojo!</blockquote>
I was just the messanger and following direction from bank's senior management protocol. A lot of the borrowers that I chatted with overextended themselves buying too many properties with too much leverage and good properties would be dragged down by the borrowers trying to cut back on R&M to keep the dog properties afloat. Other borrowers were distraught and were ready to send the jingle mail. Very interesting experience to say the least.
 
[quote author="Nude" date=1253428003]<blockquote>Vivo lo rojo! </blockquote>
Umm, what does this mean?</blockquote>


Long live the red. On the IHB, it means that the answer to the dysfunctionality in the real estate market will be solved only by those little <strong>RED</strong> circles enclosing a "<strong>B</strong>" on Foreclosure Radar.

REOs are the solution.

Foreclosures are the solution.

Even short sales are the solution.

Anything else is just kicking the can down the road or putting the expense on someone else. Most folks do not understand this concept, but it is the truth, and no amount of believing, positive thinking, postulating, creative financing, etc. will change reality.









<strong>Vivo lo Rojo!!</strong>
 
[quote author="Nude" date=1253428003]<blockquote>Vivo lo rojo! </blockquote>
Umm, what does this mean?</blockquote>


July 2009: Awgee coins the term <a href="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/forums/viewthread/2295/P125/#119016">"Viva la Roja"</a>. Coming soon to a cocktail party near you.
 
[quote author="Nude" date=1253428890]My high school spanish tells me it's "viva el rojo" but it's been a couple decades now.</blockquote>


I started by saying, (typing), viva la roja, but my mother who is 100% Mexican corrected me. It probably is Viva lo rojo, but I can screw up just about anything, especially Spanish which drives my mother crazy since I am 50% Mexican and Spanish was the first language I ever spoke.





<strong>

Viva Lo Rojo !!</strong>
 
Again, I'm not positive, but I think "lo rojo" is "the red thing", while "el rojo" is "the red one". Viva/vivo is largely dependent on whether you are cheering long life for something/someone or whether you literally mean a "living" thing.



?Viva el rojo!
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1253436158][quote author="Nude" date=1253428890]My high school spanish tells me it's "viva el rojo" but it's been a couple decades now.</blockquote>


I started by saying, (typing), viva la roja, but my mother who is 100% Mexican corrected me. It probably is Viva lo rojo, but I can screw up just about anything, especially Spanish which drives my mother crazy since I am 50% Mexican and Spanish was the first language I ever spoke.





<strong>

Viva Lo Rojo !!</strong></blockquote>


Totally off topic, but I really hate it when a language is lost for a generation (and the generations to come). My grandmother received swats on the hand with a ruler in elementary school for speaking Spanish and she and my grandfather vowed that they would never teach my mother their native language. The result is me, cursing them both for the loss of the language and placing my own child in a dual immersion Spanish charter school. I have now vowed that the language is coming back for future generations.
 
[quote author="Formerbanker" date=1253424631]And no, it's not really a fun job..it can be pretty draining mentally. But for every poor borrower you feel bad for due to life's circumstances causing financial problems, there is a jerk who could just care less about financial obligation to the bank. So I didn't mind being harsh. </blockquote>


Wow. Where have I heard that before? Can you tell if somebody you've never met is bullshitting you in like 30 seconds flat?



As I like to say, nobody ever felt bad for the garbage man, I don't expect anyone to feel bad for me.
 
[quote author="no_vaseline" date=1253445141][quote author="Formerbanker" date=1253424631]And no, it's not really a fun job..it can be pretty draining mentally. But for every poor borrower you feel bad for due to life's circumstances causing financial problems, there is a jerk who could just care less about financial obligation to the bank. So I didn't mind being harsh. </blockquote>


Wow. Where have I heard that before? Can you tell if somebody you've never met is bullshitting you in like 30 seconds flat?



As I like to say, nobody ever felt bad for the garbage man, I don't expect anyone to feel bad for me.</blockquote>


I'm not sure if you're saying that you think I'm BS-ing you, or if you are asking if I think I have a good read on people ?



I wish my 'BS -meter' worked in 30 seconds but it's not that good. There's a lot of 'woe is me, life isn't fair' out there and I became cynical pretty early on in my career when cleaning up portfolios- where you could see what had transpired with problem borrowers before you inherited them (the broken promises, the plans to repay that failed, and the ultimate dragging out of the resolution process). Generally, I believed borrowers who were not cooperative were 'guilty until proven innocent'. I'd gather any info possible to verify the level of BS being dished out because it would help me figure out how much leverage I had (if any) in my efforts to get the loan paid off or back on track. It's clearly much easier to do this at community or regional size banks where you can figure out a way to meet the borrower if you haven't already or at least stop by the property (either CRE or residential) if they won't meet with you. On the mortgage side, I will admit my collection experience is limited to super jumbos (loans over $1MM). It was usually the big 3 causing loan payment problems - divorce, medical, or job loss..all of which are easily verifiable if the borrower wants to cooperate. Lack of cooperation = you are full BS, in which case I would do everything in my power to end it as swiftly as possible by playing hardball. I'll figure out collateral coverage and move on. But I might be a little more understanding in terms of timing when the borrowers have provided me everything I've asked for to demonstrate hardship instead of whining that they are going to file BK if I try to foreclose. I've actually had a few borrowers for which I felt genuine pity - usually involving a family death or severe illness -but I will say that was the exception, not the rule.
 
[quote author="Formerbanker" date=1253496807][quote author="no_vaseline" date=1253445141][quote author="Formerbanker" date=1253424631]And no, it's not really a fun job..it can be pretty draining mentally. But for every poor borrower you feel bad for due to life's circumstances causing financial problems, there is a jerk who could just care less about financial obligation to the bank. So I didn't mind being harsh. </blockquote>


Wow. Where have I heard that before? Can you tell if somebody you've never met is bullshitting you in like 30 seconds flat?



As I like to say, nobody ever felt bad for the garbage man, I don't expect anyone to feel bad for me.</blockquote>


I'm not sure if you're saying that you think I'm BS-ing you, or if you are asking if I think I have a good read on people ?



I wish my 'BS -meter' worked in 30 seconds but it's not that good. There's a lot of 'woe is me, life isn't fair' out there and I became cynical pretty early on in my career when cleaning up portfolios- where you could see what had transpired with problem borrowers before you inherited them (the broken promises, the plans to repay that failed, and the ultimate dragging out of the resolution process). Generally, I believed borrowers who were not cooperative were 'guilty until proven innocent'. I'd gather any info possible to verify the level of BS being dished out because it would help me figure out how much leverage I had (if any) in my efforts to get the loan paid off or back on track. It's clearly much easier to do this at community or regional size banks where you can figure out a way to meet the borrower if you haven't already or at least stop by the property (either CRE or residential) if they won't meet with you. On the mortgage side, I will admit my collection experience is limited to super jumbos (loans over $1MM). It was usually the big 3 causing loan payment problems - divorce, medical, or job loss..all of which are easily verifiable if the borrower wants to cooperate. Lack of cooperation = you are full BS, in which case I would do everything in my power to end it as swiftly as possible by playing hardball. I'll figure out collateral coverage and move on. But I might be a little more understanding in terms of timing when the borrowers have provided me everything I've asked for to demonstrate hardship instead of whining that they are going to file BK if I try to foreclose. I've actually had a few borrowers for which I felt genuine pity - usually involving a family death or severe illness -but I will say that was the exception, not the rule.</blockquote>


No, I'm certain you're not BSing. It was just odd to read somebody else write almost exactly what I've been posting for a couple of years. Like you wrote earlier, there aren?t a ton of former Special Assets folks crawling around. I've been kind of an island here, and you and I have similar work history, so it?s both refreshing and a little eerie to not be the only bozo on the bus anymore.



?30 seconds? might be too short, but when I did workouts (I did farm related operating loans, the mortgages were cross collateralized but hardly ever delinquent, our issues were working capital) I could tell by the end of the first conversation which line (up or out) I was going to take. The guy (all my customers were men) who showed up with hat in hand, could articulate what the problem was, and explain a reasonable plan to get out <em>might </em>make it. These are they folks I felt bad for because they often were just unlucky (divorce, crop failure, ect). Everybody else who showed up combative/in denial/deer in headlights I was simply the garbage man. Somebody was going to take them out, it might as well be me. Best for everybody ? the borrower was going to lose his operation either way and it minimized the loss for the association.



In an earlier post, you made the observation that if the banks were to take the path that you (and I) prescribe (stop denying the problem and starting to clean up their mess ASAP) would lead to mass failures do to illiquidity. In your opinion, what result do you see happening since they've decided to 'kick the can down the road', suffering deeper losses, and making that liquidity problem even worse? Is there any alternative to ?Crash and Burn? other than ?Crash and Burn ? Even Bigger??
 
No_vas, I can relate to your 'am I an outcast on the island' feeling in the banking industry. I definitely experienced that from time to time, particularly in 2005- 2006 when the RE sky had still not fallen (as colleagues would love to point out to me).



As to your question "what result do you see happening since they?ve decided to ?kick the can down the road?, suffering deeper losses, and making that liquidity problem even worse? Is there any alternative to ?Crash and Burn? other than ?Crash and Burn ? Even Bigger??"



I wish I thought that the extreme government intervention would ultimately work to lesson the aggregate blow from this RE bubble deflation on the banking sector, but I don't. Yes, some banks have averted a liquidity crisis by delaying loan loss recognition due to the government?s ?help? in this crisis, and so they?ll die a slower death or survive longer until the FDIC arranges for them to be conveniently acquired (with FDIC loss sharing agreements and other incentives, of course). I am particularly pissed off that the government has only concentrated the risk of 'too big too fail' through its intervention, when it actually had leverage to force large institutions to break up their companies as a condition of TARP $$...but no, the smaller banks will be allowed to fail in due time, and now the larger ones will never be.



I?m thinking of writing to the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission to give them one former regulator turned banker?s view of why this crisis happened, and ultimately why they can blame themselves, as the lack of political support for the bank regulatory agencies to enforce any time of underwriting standards in the early 2000?s was among the biggest causes.
 
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