[quote author="CapitalismWorks" date=1239933223][quote author="frank69m" date=1239928134]
I doubt if it will go that low. Prices have only gone down 15% or so from the peak. And if the economy picks up which signs pointing to it, how can it suddenly sink that low. Right now, we are sitting on $420 to $500 for the Tapestrys</blockquote>
What signs are pointing to the economy picking up?!? Employment? Housing Starts? Foreclosures? GDP Growth? Inflation?
What am I missing? Oh, and please don't point to the "less bad" numbers. Things are going in one direction, and a moementary blip in the second derivative is not a recovery.
IMF puts the projected total underwriting losses on the balance sheets of global banks at $4.4 Trillion! We are less than 1/3 of the way there.
As for QH pricing. Base case we are headed back to the beginning mid 2003 pricing or ~$300/sq.ft. Could 20% higher if underwriting loosens up, rate go below 4%, jumbo conforming limits are expanded. Could go 15%+ below pessimistic case, assuming that government policy does not gain traction, political will to support the banks wanes and we get a Depression style lengthening the crisis.
Take a look at the condo market in QH. There is the canary in the coal mine. Attached units trade at 10-20% discount to detached units. With QH condos in the $300-325 range currently, and going down, that puts detached at $330 - $390 (coincidentally if you look at recent closes not WTF asking prices, this is where the detached market it trading).</blockquote>
I hate sounding like a broken record, but I'll say it again...there is a reason why I sold my QH attached condo when I did. My sales price was $336/sf and I might have squeezed out $340/sf but I wasn't about to chance it. Asking prices of that same exact unit are now below $325/sf and not selling. How could QH not come crashing down when the first sales really began in 2003 and went through 2007?
