Quail Hill mid-high end foreclosures

irvine_home_owner_IHB

irvine_home_owner_IHB

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I've been watching graph post those cool ForeclosuresAreGoingToEatYourBabiesRadar.com images for Quail Hill... yet until now... I don't see the mid/higher end ones actually hitting the market all that much. Maybe I'm missing something... or maybe I'm too impatient but why haven't all those underwater buttons turn into comp killer sales.



I can only think of two since September 08. Is there a way to post back in time images of those colored buttons and compare them to now?



Or is there some service to give me a listing of REO sales by area? I'm just irritated at these home listings for absurd prices when all this shadow inventory is out there.



Seriously... I read that REO 50% up thread and the numbers show it... but how about in Irvine? Or certain places in Irvine? What is taking so long for these things to hit the market? I need data please.



Or maybe it's those darn FCBs.



:runs away before graph can bust the spider monkey:
 
The pre-forclosure buttons are for properties with missed or late mortgage payment. In order to be successful in negotiation with the lender on loan modification owners must show financial hardship and a threat to the bank. Owners afraid of getting their credit score ruined continued with mortgage payment were denied of the Loan Mod request.
 
Hmmm... graph must be busy.



So I found this thread:



<a href="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/forums/viewthread/1596/">http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/forums/viewthread/1596/</a>



Gavrillo isn't around as much but I've been wondering when the bloodbath is supposed to start.



I know that rents are softening (I'm actively looking) but I there also doesn't seem to be that much SFR rental inventory available (I've been tracking since September '08).



And in that thread, all those auctions didn't seem to be for much less than what the homes originally sold for in 2003/04.



Now I know I'm sounding bearish (which is a no-no here)... but what is the deal with the shadow inventory and resets and what's taking so long? Is the tidal wave going to hit later now because of all the government interference and bank knuckle dragging?



What happened to those red buttons on graph's maps?
 
The process is exceedingly slow. There was a piece in the NYT today on financial disincentives to mortgage servicers to foreclose.



http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/30/business/30services.html?_r=1



CNBC later had a response that pointed out that costs also rise in foreclosure offsetting any increase in cash flow to the service.



http://www.cnbc.com/id/32224686



Here is a quote from the NYT article



"From June 2008 to June 2009, the number of American mortgages that were 90 days or more delinquent soared from 1.8 million to nearly 3 million, according to the realty research company First American Core Logic. During that period, the number of loans that resulted in the bank taking ownership of the home declined to 245,000, from 333,000. "



Clearly there is a ENORMOUS number of foreclosures that are sitting idle. Based on this, and just about every other data source for this type of information, we will be waiting for those properties to become REO somewhere between 12 and 36 months.
 
36 months?!?



Gah... hopefully Laguna Crossings will be open by then and we can find a 2500-3000sft house in an elevated area for less than $800k (I know this may happen sooner in Portola Springs but I prefer the southern end of Irvine).
 
[quote author="CapitalismWorks" date=1249020365]Clearly there is a ENORMOUS number of foreclosures that are sitting idle. Based on this, and just about every other data source for this type of information, we will be waiting for those properties to become REO somewhere between 12 and 36 months.</blockquote>


This isn't correct. The number of foreclosures (bank-owned properties) not on the market is extremely small. The number of properties that are behind on the payments and have received a Notice of Default but have not been foreclosed upon, however, is very large. Most of those are still occupied by the "owner" or rental tenants.
 
I find this post by IR earlier this week interesting

<A href="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/blog/comments/ridgeview-turtle-ridge-irvine/">http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/blog/comments/ridgeview-turtle-ridge-irvine/</A>

"The lender finally took the property back on 1/21/2009 for $2,635,000. They have been sitting on it since then trying to figure out what to do. Based on the date of the NOD, there has been no payment on this loan since 2007."



It's gonna be a long, long wait ...



[quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1249005915]I've been watching graph post those cool ForeclosuresAreGoingToEatYourBabiesRadar.com images for Quail Hill... yet until now... I don't see the mid/higher end ones actually hitting the market all that much. Maybe I'm missing something... or maybe I'm too impatient but why haven't all those underwater buttons turn into comp killer sales.



I can only think of two since September 08. Is there a way to post back in time images of those colored buttons and compare them to now?



Or is there some service to give me a listing of REO sales by area? I'm just irritated at these home listings for absurd prices when all this shadow inventory is out there.



Seriously... I read that REO 50% up thread and the numbers show it... but how about in Irvine? Or certain places in Irvine? What is taking so long for these things to hit the market? I need data please.



Or maybe it's those darn FCBs.



:runs away before graph can bust the spider monkey:</blockquote>
 
I don't live in QH any longer, so I don't follow as closely. But I was there recently and drove by 51 Momento, which looks like it finally sold in some kind of short sale. It was scheduled for Trustee's Sale regularly for over a year (you can find some of the history if you search the Forum archives). The Trustee's Sale would inevitably be postponed, probably because someone was trying to arrange a short sale with the bank. 1st trust deed debt was about $1.5m. Last week, I noticed the landscaping (weeds) had been cleaned up, old newspapers removed from the driveway, etc., so it looks like someone has moved in. At the same time, 27 Momento has gone into default and is scheduled for Trustee's Sale on Tuesday, August 18 (from FidelityASAP's website):



Tuesday

8/18/2009 12:00:00 PM

Address: 27 MOMENTO

Get Yahoo! Map

City: IRVINE

State: CA

Zip: 92603

County: Orange

APN: 481-094-45



Sale Status: Sale Date 08/18/2009

TS Number: CA09276437AB

ASAP Number: 3177875

Notice of Sale Amt: $1,564,781.52

Opening Bid Amt: 0

Sold Amt: 0

Sale Location: At the North front entrance to the County Courthouse, 700 Civic Center Drive West, Santa Ana, CA 92701

Get Yahoo! Map

Trustee: Quality Loan Service Corporation

Trustee Phone#: (619)685-4800
 
Here are some other "high end foreclosures" in Quail Hill:



Tuesday

8/11/2009 12:00:00 PM

Address: 103 RETREAT

Get Yahoo! Map

City: IRVINE

State: CA

Zip: 92603

County: Orange

APN: 481-124-38



Sale Status: Sale Date 08/11/2009

TS Number: 20090026056

ASAP Number: 3185404

Notice of Sale Amt: $0.00

Opening Bid Amt: 0

Sold Amt: 0

Sale Location: At the North front entrance to the County Courthouse, 700 Civic Center Drive West, Santa Ana, CA 92701

Get Yahoo! Map

Trustee: Recon Trust Company N.A.

Trustee Phone#: (800)281-8219
 
105 Bottlebrush has been in foreclosure since around February 2009, with the Trustee's Sale being postponed regularly. Could be another short sale in the making, does anyone know?



Thursday

8/13/2009 12:00:00 PM

Address: 105 Bottlebrush

Get Yahoo! Map

City: IRVINE

State: CA

Zip: 92603

County: Orange

APN: 481-101-09



Sale Status: Postponed to 08/13/2009

(Mutual Agreement)

TS Number: 228756CA

ASAP Number: 3047988

Notice of Sale Amt: $847,972.17

Opening Bid Amt: 0

Sold Amt: 0

Sale Location: At the North front entrance to the County Courthouse, 700 Civic Center Drive West, Santa Ana, CA.

Get Yahoo! Map

Trustee: California Reconveyance Company

Trustee Phone#: (800)892-6902
 
Wednesday

8/26/2009 12:00:00 PM

Address: 149 TREEHOUSE

Get Yahoo! Map

City: IRVINE

State: CA

Zip: 92603

County: Orange

APN: 481-111-06



Sale Status: Sale Date 08/26/2009

TS Number: CA08164328DL

ASAP Number: 3198931

Notice of Sale Amt: $914,024.27

Opening Bid Amt: 0

Sold Amt: 0

Sale Location: At the North front entrance to the County Courthouse, 700 Civic Center Drive West, Santa Ana, CA 92701

Get Yahoo! Map

Trustee: Quality Loan Service Corporation

Trustee Phone#: (619)685-4800
 
Friday

8/28/2009 12:00:00 PM

Address: 114 WEATHERVANE

Get Yahoo! Map

City: IRVINE

State: CA

Zip: 92603

County: Orange

APN: 481-123-08



Sale Status: Postponed to 08/28/2009

(Bankruptcy)

TS Number: CA08166383PJ

ASAP Number: 2850487

Notice of Sale Amt: $665,756.29

Opening Bid Amt: 0

Sold Amt: 0

Sale Location: At the North front entrance to the County Courthouse, 700 Civic Center Drive West, Santa Ana, CA.

Get Yahoo! Map

Trustee: Quality Loan Service Corporation

Trustee Phone#: (619)685-4800
 
FWIW, last year it was unusual to see more than 1-2 freestanding houses in foreclosure in QH (excluding Tall Oak, Canopy and similar "mid range" freestanding houses). Now, we are seeing 5-6 at a time. If this trend holds, it appears the foreclosure trend is accelerating in the higher end of the market.



And just for fun, here are two "high end" foreclosures from Shady Canyon:



Friday

8/28/2009 12:00:00 PM

Address: 41 GOLDEN EAGLE

Get Yahoo! Map

City: IRVINE

State: CA

Zip: 92603

County: Orange

APN: 464-031-54



Sale Status: Postponed to 08/28/2009

(Beneficiary's Request)

TS Number: CA09263221ED

ASAP Number: 3155269

Notice of Sale Amt: $5,240,696.23

Opening Bid Amt: 0

Sold Amt: 0

Sale Location: At the North front entrance to the County Courthouse, 700 Civic Center Drive West, Santa Ana, CA.

Get Yahoo! Map

Trustee: Quality Loan Service Corporation

Trustee Phone#: (619)685-4800

Friday

8/28/2009 12:00:00 PM

Address: 21 NEEDLE GRASS

Get Yahoo! Map

City: IRVINE

State: CA

Zip: 92603

County: Orange

APN: 481-171-04



Sale Status: Postponed to 08/28/2009

(Mutual Agreement)

TS Number: 227991CA

ASAP Number: 3006694

Notice of Sale Amt: $1,960,318.68

Opening Bid Amt: 0

Sold Amt: 0

Sale Location: At the North front entrance to the County Courthouse, 700 Civic Center Drive West, Santa Ana, CA.

Get Yahoo! Map

Trustee: California Reconveyance Company

Trustee Phone#: (800)892-6902
 
Another data point: 39 Balcony, which was in foreclosure for around a year, appears to have sold in a short sale.



According to IPO Playa's site, it sold July 9 for a stunning $1.325m.



Quail Hill 39 Balcony $1,325,000 7/9/09 $1,716,000 Mar-06 268.23 0.77 207.11



IIRC, this property had about $2.3m in total debt. Some lender(s) lost $1m here.
 
[quote author="Geotpf" date=1249080852][quote author="CapitalismWorks" date=1249020365]Clearly there is a ENORMOUS number of foreclosures that are sitting idle. Based on this, and just about every other data source for this type of information, we will be waiting for those properties to become REO somewhere between 12 and 36 months.</blockquote>


This isn't correct. The number of foreclosures (bank-owned properties) not on the market is extremely small. The number of properties that are behind on the payments and have received a Notice of Default but have not been foreclosed upon, however, is very large. Most of those are still occupied by the "owner" or rental tenants.</blockquote>


Would you care to back you <strong>opinion</strong> up with some actual statistics that prove there are not a lot of REOs on the market. In case you have missed where I have posted the <strong>factual</strong> statistics that prove there are about 8000 REOs (10.5 months of inventory at the average of the last six month of REO sales pace) sitting around in OC, then I will repost it here. I took the last two and half years worth of REO sales from the MLS, then shifted the REOs 120 days from DataQuick, and subtracted the REO sales from the foreclosures/REOs and it is over 8000 homes that have been foreclosed on that are not on the market. Add in what is on the market, what has gone pending, and what has been foreclosed on recently, and it becomes apparent that the REOs are happening three times as much as sales are happening.



Did you not click on the links of Jim the Realtor with video of the shadow inventory? Nothing wrong with opinions, but before you speak with such conviction... you might want to click on some of the links and look into the stats before you do.
 
Here is the current Foreclosure Radar shot of QH...



http://i27.tinypic.com/23ud5qf.jpg



Here is the historical REO shot...



http://i30.tinypic.com/2d8rocm.jpg



Now, 51 Momento shows up as an REO, because it was foreclosed on but the owner legally got that rescinded. Also, just glancing at some of the higher-end REOs, they have already transferred to a new owner. So far IHO is correct, the high-end there is stubbornly holding up well. Will that change? All it takes are a few more of those "A's" turning into "B's" to change that. But... will they change to "B's"?
 
<a href="http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/08/shadow-inventory.html">More on "Shadow Inventory" from Calculated Risk</a>.



I have said this before, and I will say it again. The banks that are well capitalized can sell their REOs at the mark to market value. The banks that are not well capitalized are holding on to their REOs because if they sold them at the mark to market value, it would slaughter their Tier 1 capital ratios creating even more bank failures. Just go look at the ratio of NPAs to REOs on Corus' balance sheet. Vultures want to buy their REOs at mark to market value, but it would instantly kill the bank. There are plenty more just like Corus out there, not as bad as Corus, but bad enough for them to hold their REOs. There is a reason why the panel of three banking experts and economists I saw last week was titled "Dead Banks Walking."
 
Sorry to sound stupid here, but if I see this:



Notice of Sale Amt: $665,756.29





Is this the opening bid amount?



And how does one go about bidding on this house? Do we go to the courthouse? And do we have to have all of our financing lined-up?



I guess in general, how does this process work?
 
[quote author="frank69m" date=1249277260]Sorry to sound stupid here, but if I see this:



Notice of Sale Amt: $665,756.29





Is this the opening bid amount?



And how does one go about bidding on this house? Do we go to the courthouse? And do we have to have all of our financing lined-up?



I guess in general, how does this process work?</blockquote>


<a href="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/forums/viewthread/346/">Foreclosure thread</a>.
 
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