Quail Hill Comp Killer

Looks like they put the bare minimum into the house and exterior after purchase.  After closing costs, the owner would probably still be net positive.  But will it close for $950k?  At that price, you're still paying a premium over comparable properties elsewhere in Irvine, but for a terrible floorplan, ugly kitchen, and a tiny yard.  Heck, there is a townhouse/condo elsewhere in Quail Hill that I'd rather live in for $100k less, similar sq footage:
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/204-Scarlet-92603/home/5945919

 
oakcreekrenter said:
Looks like they put the bare minimum into the house and exterior after purchase.  After closing costs, the owner would probably still be net positive.  But will it close for $950k?  At that price, you're still paying a premium over comparable properties elsewhere in Irvine, but for a terrible floorplan, ugly kitchen, and a tiny yard.  Heck, there is a townhouse/condo elsewhere in Quail Hill that I'd rather live in for $100k less, similar sq footage:
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/204-Scarlet-92603/home/5945919
Click to expand...


HOA higher. Plus, you are bunched up with other homes next to you. I walk by those all the time and the parking stinks down there. Plus, you have no driveway. At least this home has a slight view.
 
frank69m said:
I didn't realize it, but this
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/133-Treehouse-92603/home/5902142

is a short sale. Why does it say in the listing that owner will rent if not sold? odd.
Click to expand...
Looks like it went pending... last list price was $925k... might be the lowest Tapestry in recent memory... but even if it goes for $900k, it originally sold for $781k in Dec 2003.

Where are the non-adjusted 2003 prices that the perma-bears were talking about (and not talking so much about anymore)?

Although if you adjust for 3% inflation yearly... these homes should be in the mid-$900ks.
 
I agree... as crazy as it sounds, i'm praying for the "fundamentalists" to be correct.    Then I will buy my 2800 sq ft home in Orchard Hills with a view for $600,000.

Or since the Laguna Altura "Wok" is so horrible, I will purchase the largest Toscana plan for $500K.   
 
Compared with LA plan 2 and Stonegate plan 3, all are around lower 900k. Which one is the best deal?
This one has some view and quail hill premium but smaller than the newer homes. It is the cheapest Tapestry community house in QH.

Tax+Hoa+MR are nearly same for these properties.


Any suggestions?



irvinehomeowner said:
frank69m said:
I didn't realize it, but this
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/133-Treehouse-92603/home/5902142

is a short sale. Why does it say in the listing that owner will rent if not sold? odd.
Click to expand...
Looks like it went pending... last list price was $925k... might be the lowest Tapestry in recent memory... but even if it goes for $900k, it originally sold for $781k in Dec 2003.

Where are the non-adjusted 2003 prices that the perma-bears were talking about (and not talking so much about anymore)?

Although if you adjust for 3% inflation yearly... these homes should be in the mid-$900ks.
Click to expand...
 
fcb2011 said:
Compared with LA plan 2 and Stonegate plan 3, all are around lower 900k. Which one is the best deal?
This one has some view and quail hill premium but smaller than the newer homes. It is the cheapest Tapestry community house in QH.

Tax+Hoa+MR are nearly same for these properties.
Click to expand...
In my opinion, the LA Plan 2 has a better floorplan but I like the Tapestry location more (straddled by two parks, closer to school and shopping center and a somewhat "view" lot). I thought the QH HOA is lower than the LA $295 one.

Stonegate is kind of out of the equation because it's a different locale.
 
irvinehomeowner said:
fcb2011 said:
Compared with LA plan 2 and Stonegate plan 3, all are around lower 900k. Which one is the best deal?
This one has some view and quail hill premium but smaller than the newer homes. It is the cheapest Tapestry community house in QH.

Tax+Hoa+MR are nearly same for these properties.
Click to expand...
In my opinion, the LA Plan 2 has a better floorplan but I like the Tapestry location more (straddled by two parks, closer to school and shopping center and a somewhat "view" lot). I thought the QH HOA is lower than the LA $295 one.

Stonegate is kind of out of the equation because it's a different locale.
Click to expand...


It's $252 Irvinehomeowner and one of the reasons why I choose up here is because of that big greenbelt area in the middle. It's nice to see the kids in the morning walk thru that on the way to school.
 
fcb2011 said:
Compared with LA plan 2 and Stonegate plan 3, all are around lower 900k. Which one is the best deal?
This one has some view and quail hill premium but smaller than the newer homes. It is the cheapest Tapestry community house in QH.

Tax+Hoa+MR are nearly same for these properties.


Any suggestions?



irvinehomeowner said:
frank69m said:
I didn't realize it, but this
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/133-Treehouse-92603/home/5902142

is a short sale. Why does it say in the listing that owner will rent if not sold? odd.
Click to expand...
Looks like it went pending... last list price was $925k... might be the lowest Tapestry in recent memory... but even if it goes for $900k, it originally sold for $781k in Dec 2003.

Where are the non-adjusted 2003 prices that the perma-bears were talking about (and not talking so much about anymore)?

Although if you adjust for 3% inflation yearly... these homes should be in the mid-$900ks.
Click to expand...
Click to expand...

The Taxes/HOAs ARE NOT the same for all the properties. 

HOA for QH = $250, $110 for SG, and $295 for LA
Taxbill for Treehouse shows Mello of ~$3K per year (and bonds will be paid off quicker) compared to $4200 for SG and $6000 for LA. 

To me, that's not "about the same"

LA (Cortona) 2 is priced at about $960K and that's not "lower" $900s.  IHO is right as SG is a bit different. 

All things equal, I think that QH is the most attractive of the 3, but it is also priced as such.
 
We have been into 13X treehouse. The floorplan is strange. You got a huge huge master bath room with a center island in the middle! And floors, kitchen, etc beg for upgrades. We won't even pay 850 k for it.
 
velbon said:
We have been into 13X treehouse. The floorplan is strange. You got a huge huge master bath room with a center island in the middle! And floors, kitchen, etc beg for upgrades. We won't even pay 850 k for it.
Click to expand...

What do you mean a center island? We went there too, but we did not see it.
The mater bath room is almost the same size as LA plan 2 or stonegate plan 2.
 
Another Olivos in the low $900k:
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/127-Treehouse-92603/home/5892682

$925k... it's pending but is a short sale... so who knows what price it will close at.

133 Treehouse closed at $916k about 2 weeks ago which makes it the lowest price Tapestry model in recent memory. That's still above its Dec, 2003 price of 781k... but if you adjust for inflation, you get a $938k price so is this a #winner? Coincidentally... it's now up for rent at $4500... is that cash-flow positive?
 
irvinehomeowner said:
Another Olivos in the low $900k:
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/127-Treehouse-92603/home/5892682

$925k... it's pending but is a short sale... so who knows what price it will close at.

133 Treehouse closed at $916k about 2 weeks ago which makes it the lowest price Tapestry model in recent memory. That's still above its Dec, 2003 price of 781k... but if you adjust for inflation, you get a $938k price so is this a #winner? Coincidentally... it's now up for rent at $4500... is that cash-flow positive?
Click to expand...

i think adjusting a 12/03 price for inflation is not the best indicator of what you should pay for it today. 12/03 prices already had 3 to 4 years of 20%+ appreciation. If you backed out 20% annual increases from that 781K, it would make the sales price 452K in December of 2000, adjust the 452K at 3% inflation for 11 years and it would put the price at 625K. So 625K would be a more normalized price.
 
irvinehomeowner said:
Another Olivos in the low $900k:
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/127-Treehouse-92603/home/5892682

$925k... it's pending but is a short sale... so who knows what price it will close at.

133 Treehouse closed at $916k about 2 weeks ago which makes it the lowest price Tapestry model in recent memory. That's still above its Dec, 2003 price of 781k... but if you adjust for inflation, you get a $938k price so is this a #winner? Coincidentally... it's now up for rent at $4500... is that cash-flow positive?
Click to expand...
Not even with a loan of only $729,750 at 4.25%...the payment alone is about $3,600 then you add property tax, HOA, MR, and insurance on top of that (your monthly carry costs are closer to $5,000 per month).  Not sure picking this home up as a rental was that good of an idea.
 
qwerty said:
irvinehomeowner said:
Another Olivos in the low $900k:
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/127-Treehouse-92603/home/5892682

$925k... it's pending but is a short sale... so who knows what price it will close at.

133 Treehouse closed at $916k about 2 weeks ago which makes it the lowest price Tapestry model in recent memory. That's still above its Dec, 2003 price of 781k... but if you adjust for inflation, you get a $938k price so is this a #winner? Coincidentally... it's now up for rent at $4500... is that cash-flow positive?
Click to expand...

i think adjusting a 12/03 price for inflation is not the best indicator of what you should pay for it today. 12/03 prices already had 3 to 4 years of 20%+ appreciation. If you backed out 20% annual increases from that 781K, it would make the sales price 452K in December of 2000, adjust the 452K at 3% inflation for 11 years and it would put the price at 625K. So 625K would be a more normalized price.
Click to expand...

Q, so you are saying that from 1999 to 2003 (4 years), prices went up 200% (which is 20% annually) or are you saying that prices went up 20% from 1999 to 2003 which implies 5% appreciation or 2% above rate of inflation you are using? Pretty big difference.
 
Regarding inflation, that is something that many people leave out of the equation, in addition to principal reduction when talking about home prices dropping.

What would anyone estimate the rate of decent by year for home values since 2006? 5% or 10% per year? Is Irvine down 25% or 50% from there? What is the current rate of decent now?

With qwerty's bubble-adjusted price... do anyone think Quail Hill SFRs are going to hit $625k?
 
so_scared said:
qwerty said:
irvinehomeowner said:
Another Olivos in the low $900k:
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/127-Treehouse-92603/home/5892682

$925k... it's pending but is a short sale... so who knows what price it will close at.

133 Treehouse closed at $916k about 2 weeks ago which makes it the lowest price Tapestry model in recent memory. That's still above its Dec, 2003 price of 781k... but if you adjust for inflation, you get a $938k price so is this a #winner? Coincidentally... it's now up for rent at $4500... is that cash-flow positive?
Click to expand...

i think adjusting a 12/03 price for inflation is not the best indicator of what you should pay for it today. 12/03 prices already had 3 to 4 years of 20%+ appreciation. If you backed out 20% annual increases from that 781K, it would make the sales price 452K in December of 2000, adjust the 452K at 3% inflation for 11 years and it would put the price at 625K. So 625K would be a more normalized price.
Click to expand...

Q, so you are saying that from 1999 to 2003 (4 years), prices went up 200% (which is 20% annually) or are you saying that prices went up 20% from 1999 to 2003 which implies 5% appreciation or 2% above rate of inflation you are using? Pretty big difference.
Click to expand...

im saying prices increased 20%+ each year. a 20% increase per year for four years from 99 to 2003 would cause about a 100% increase in price, not 200%. So the price would have doubled in 4 years.
 
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