Burn That Belly
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Prices will not stop climbing in Irvine, this picture says it all
- Thread starter Burn That Belly
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Burn That Belly
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J
jmoney74
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I believe it when I see it.
How are the new Eastwood homes selling?
How are the new Eastwood homes selling?
Isn't that chart just a reflection of all the new housing supply? Build it and they will come? Lots of cities have big population growth without house price appreciation.
I think the most relevant metric would be the trend in the ratio of high paying jobs to housing supply. Or trend in office space to residential units. I don't really see many new big name companies in Irvine. Still a hodgepodge of small and mid size employers with a few exceptions.
I think the most relevant metric would be the trend in the ratio of high paying jobs to housing supply. Or trend in office space to residential units. I don't really see many new big name companies in Irvine. Still a hodgepodge of small and mid size employers with a few exceptions.
usctrojancpa
Well-known member
i1 said:
They built/are building at least about 10-12 larger office buildings in the Irvine area from what I've seen recently. You don't just build office space if there isn't a demand for it. But I do agree with you, the population increase is not a future indicator of further home price appreciation....supply and demand along with buyer financial strength will be.
The other cities on the chart are old established city and don't have much of empty land to build new houses and not much of turnaround on existing homes. Even if these cities have a lot of job opportunities, there will not be much of population growth due to lack of housing. BTB should include Johns Creek in the comparison, I heard it's the next Irvine. >
Due to strong job market and lack of housing in the surrounding cities, Both Irvine housing and population boom will continue.
Due to strong job market and lack of housing in the surrounding cities, Both Irvine housing and population boom will continue.
Loco_local
Active member
I can see cities allowing the tear down of single family houses to cram in apartment buildings. That's what Glendale seemed to do.
paperboyNC
New member
i1 said:
Yes - the chart is just a reflection of new housing supply. Amazon, Google and Microsoft have all opened and expanded offices here in the last few years.
If a US or global recession hits, the effects on housing are unpredictable.
momopi
Well-known member
As a property owner in Irvine since Dec 1999, I have seen the value go up and down in the past cycle.
Anyone who thinks home prices in Irvine will never drop (in our lifetime) is as delusional as egg white mixture.
However, over time the general trend for Irvine will be on the up and up. And during downturns, the difference between Riverside and Irvine is Riverside home will drop 2/3 vs Irvine drop 1/3 (or less).
Anyone who thinks home prices in Irvine will never drop (in our lifetime) is as delusional as egg white mixture.
However, over time the general trend for Irvine will be on the up and up. And during downturns, the difference between Riverside and Irvine is Riverside home will drop 2/3 vs Irvine drop 1/3 (or less).
someguy
Active member
Burn That Belly said:
This is my biggest concern for Irvine. The commute traffic from the 405/55 area to production paradise Irvine company EW/OH area is already pretty terrible. I can't imagine what it will be like when Tustin Legacy, OH, and EW are complete. I hope to be out of Irvine by then :-/
Burn That Belly said:Many of you complain about the exorbitant prices of housing in Irvine. But nobody bothered to figure out why.
Aside from what we already know, CA wages are going up y-o-y, food prices are increasing, student loans are crossing 1.4 trillion, millennials are being lazy and living at home, this picture speaks it all.
I took this data from Google's US Census bureau for population between 1990 to 2016.
That curve for Irvine, CA is exponential! As long as that curve continues to climb, housing prices will NOT stop climbing. I've compared it against other popular cities like Arcadia and San Marino.
We are going to see very soon:
1) One million dollar attached condos
2) $600k+ 1 bedroom condos sold and turned into make-shift 2 bedrooms.
3) Continued and rapid rent increases by TIC
This is where SJC is today, but that is driven by avg wage in Santa Clara County of $118K and zero new development. With all of the development + resale in Irvine do you see the job market improving that much to drive these prices?
sgip
Well-known member
Shhh... Hear that? It's the same sounds people were making in 2006, and 1989, and other times in days gone by. If prices go up forever, it "looks like I picked the wrong week to stop sniffing glue."
To be clear, I'm no doom or gloom kinda guy, but all items of value go up and down for any number of reasons. For example, as of today:
1) http://www.ocregister.com/2017/08/28/layoffs-in-orange-county-allergan-cut-109-by-october-peregrine-pharmaceuticals-to-chop-rd-team-in-half-universal-alloy-cutting-149/
You get 3-4 big layoffs, large enough to spook the herd, and it will be a rush to the exits. What happens for example if there isn't a tech breakthrough large enough to get people to lay $1,000 for an iJebus8, 9, or 10? If Apple / Android sales stall below simple replacement of phones, the cascading impact to software, hardware, etc will eventually make it down to the street level here in OC
2) Perhaps there will be meaningful finance reforms overseas that stem the flow of money here to the US. When 30% of your market collapses, so can prices.
3) What if UCI loses 3-4 solid professors to other UC schools, or if IUSD has any number of issues come up with teachers, the draw of "better schools" begins to deflate. If a significant test cheating scandal were to arise at one or more of the High Schools, might that impact property values? My guess is "yes".
4) Ladera Ranch has had water pitting / pipe corrosion issues with many communities in that area. What if there was an outbreak of water problems in Stonegate or Pavillion Park? Significant new build issues can also suppress values. I'm sure anyone who has purchased in the last 5 years has seen countless ads from predatory law firms urging buyers to sue their builder. When that happens in attached communities, values are suppressed due to financing issues.
5) Earthquake risk. We're well past due for a 7.0 or greater. Remember, Houston was a great place to invest only 14 days ago what with solid property appreciation potential and a diverse employment base. Post Harvey Houston isn't going to be the same as post Katrina New Orleans, but the Houston area will be deeply impacted for years to come.
These are of course only the negative, worst case scenario issues that could possibly influence values. The future is unknown and thus, plan accordingly by considering a spread of risk, not creating a concentration thereof.
My .02c
SGIP
To be clear, I'm no doom or gloom kinda guy, but all items of value go up and down for any number of reasons. For example, as of today:
1) http://www.ocregister.com/2017/08/28/layoffs-in-orange-county-allergan-cut-109-by-october-peregrine-pharmaceuticals-to-chop-rd-team-in-half-universal-alloy-cutting-149/
You get 3-4 big layoffs, large enough to spook the herd, and it will be a rush to the exits. What happens for example if there isn't a tech breakthrough large enough to get people to lay $1,000 for an iJebus8, 9, or 10? If Apple / Android sales stall below simple replacement of phones, the cascading impact to software, hardware, etc will eventually make it down to the street level here in OC
2) Perhaps there will be meaningful finance reforms overseas that stem the flow of money here to the US. When 30% of your market collapses, so can prices.
3) What if UCI loses 3-4 solid professors to other UC schools, or if IUSD has any number of issues come up with teachers, the draw of "better schools" begins to deflate. If a significant test cheating scandal were to arise at one or more of the High Schools, might that impact property values? My guess is "yes".
4) Ladera Ranch has had water pitting / pipe corrosion issues with many communities in that area. What if there was an outbreak of water problems in Stonegate or Pavillion Park? Significant new build issues can also suppress values. I'm sure anyone who has purchased in the last 5 years has seen countless ads from predatory law firms urging buyers to sue their builder. When that happens in attached communities, values are suppressed due to financing issues.
5) Earthquake risk. We're well past due for a 7.0 or greater. Remember, Houston was a great place to invest only 14 days ago what with solid property appreciation potential and a diverse employment base. Post Harvey Houston isn't going to be the same as post Katrina New Orleans, but the Houston area will be deeply impacted for years to come.
These are of course only the negative, worst case scenario issues that could possibly influence values. The future is unknown and thus, plan accordingly by considering a spread of risk, not creating a concentration thereof.
My .02c
SGIP
Hugo Township
Active member
Nice FOMO troll, OP.
It is interesting to see the declining DOM and supply at this time for Irvine homes <1mil.
It is interesting to see the declining DOM and supply at this time for Irvine homes <1mil.
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
Burn That Belly said:
What?!?
We all know why... I said it years ago:
F C B
Burn That Belly
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Burn That Belly
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