Portola Springs Melloroos???

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
mino2126 - The quote you were looking for was: "When the wise leave only the fools are left." As I have been quoting this ever since the real investors left when I worked for the builder.

I would like to add another one. This one is based on stocks but could just as easily apply to the housing market:

"The line separating investment and speculation, which is never bright and clear, becomes blurred still further when most market participants have recently enjoyed triumphs. Nothing sedates rationality like large doses of effortless money. After a heady experience of that kind, normally sensible people drift into behavior akin to that of Cinderella at the ball. They know that overstaying the festivities -- that is, continuing to speculate in companies that have gigantic valuations relative to the cash they are likely to generate in the future -- will eventually bring on pumpkins and mice. But they nevertheless hate to miss a single minute of what is one helluva party. Therefore, the giddy participants all plan to leave just seconds before midnight. There’s a problem, though: They are dancing in a room in which the clocks have no hands."
 
iceeman - If you have not already read Irvinerenter's very detailed and excellent posts on the housing market here are the links:

http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/2007/03/03/how-inflated-are-house-prices/

http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/2007/03/05/how-sub-prime-lending-created-the-bubble/

http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/2007/03/06/what-is-past-is-prologue/

http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/2007/03/11/predictions-for-irvine-housing-market/

I have played with the numbers myself and while my math was slightly different it had the same outcome.
 
nirvinerealtor - I just have to add a comment to your rent numbers. Like SCHB said it is lively debate. The rent prices for 2007 are the "asking" prices which are just wishing prices. Just as the guy around the corner from me is asking $1.1mil for his house it doesn't mean that it will sell for that. Would you mind sharing how many DOM for these properties? $2800 in 2002 dollars today would be $3200 so if it were rented for $3400 it is barely over inflation and that is if it is rented for that.

I do welcome your comments and appreciate you sharing the numbers and your opinions. As you will see though most of us around here see things from a very analytical and contrarian view point. We also have disagreed with the housing bulls for the majority of the last few years so the stats and info we have come off the top of our heads now.
 
graphrix, the reason I gave you the active ones so you can find them on the internet. I will report soon the recent leased numbers and you just have to believe me (you can verify if you have access to the MLS database). The DOM sometimes means different things though and I rather not go into it. I do look at numbers and analize them.

You brought up a very good point. You need to see data. Providing detail data is very time consuming. My clients do get all the data from me so they can analyze. I will try my best.

You also mentioned inflation for rentals. Rentals are commodities, so are houses! How can one inflates, and the other one should deflate when they are both shelters for people. In reality, the market goes from bullish to bearish back and forth all year long (my personal observation from looking at the data). So either rents come up, which is what happening now, or prices drop further (or interest rate drops), which may be happening soon, to motivate people to buy.

2006 seemed like a strange year. After April 2006, the market went silent until last month! People really did not buy houses last year; that is when the "fraudsters" took advantage of the situation in full force. I think now the fraudsters are in hiding, hope they stay there.

I am sorry to say that the foreclosures in Irvine appears to be more of the result of mortgage frauds for profit. I do keep a close tab on prime defaults from insider source and have not seen much noise yet. When this change I will let you know.
 
Iceeman - I feel your pain. I'm a little older than you and relatively new to SoCal. Moved to Irvine in early 2004 at the height of the madness. I did a little research before moving here (not enough) and thought that I would rent for a few years, bank some money and buy. I didn't see the prices going that much higher and rents increasing as much as they have. The rent on my original apartment (IAC) is roughly 20% more than in 04. I'm hoping that the recent downward spiral in areas like the IE and Rancho and Fraudera will have some downward impact on Irvine in home prices and rents. If my rent only increases modestly over the next few years I'd look to buy then. Hopefully home prices will have come down some, although some of these sellers in Irvine are rediculous with their pie in the sky price expectations. Haven't they seen what is happening at Portola and Columbus?
 
gec518, I do hope prices come down and interest rate at least stay the same so you will want to buy. Everyone is back to square 1though, when prices are dropping, people do not feel like buying either. If you have noticed, people want to hurry and buy when prices are going up.
 
If rents can stay reasonable for a few years and I can save a little more for downpayment and real estate comes down some, I'll buy in Irvine. If I can't save enough and real estate even stays flat or goes up some, I'm out of Irvine. Maybe even back to the Midwest if this doesn't become more realistic here. Going back to Iceeman's comment on the Melloroos, it only adds insult to injury for me with the crazy prices. I'd have less beef with the Melloroos if prices were in line with fundamentals.
 
this is a great thread... and this site is addicting!

in regards to my comment about why I think Irvine will become the hottest OC real estate, is mainly due to recent final proposal by Irvine company (TIC). As part of their final community development, Irvine co stated that they will build the Great Park, Irvine Ranch, Spectrum and John Wayne area all by 2010 ... with ongoing construction as needed. What I gathered from that headliner was that there will be no more new homes being built in Irvine... forever! I'm sure they will eventually tear down some old lots and build smaller inner communities...but nothing to the scale it's been going at. That's why I believe Irvine will be destined to be the city of hot real estate in few years. I'm sure other part of the county will continue to develop...but the proximity and central location of Irvine will be hard to beat IMO.

As for mello roos, i wouldn't mind paying it either if the price drops another 30%. From recent price listings by various builders...it seems as though prices has dropped about 8-10% already for new homes from couple months ago, as many have predicted i don't see why it wouldn't lower another 20-30% within next 6-12 months. I'll eat the mello roos then with content.
 
iceeman, that statement by the irvine company sounds too optimistic to me:

1- if a job-related recession hits irvine and unemployment goes up and office space goes unrented and people lose jobs and can't pay high rent, don't you think the irvine company will slow down development of both residential and home sites? why would it throw good money to build buildings that no one will rent? sounds like fluff to me.

2- have you taken a drive around east irvine (follow alton all the way to laguna woods)? i see land that hasn't been developed.

3- proximity and central location to...what? costa mesa and santa ana are closer to los angeles, beach, sports and disneyland; but i wouldn't consider those to be desirable areas. do you agree?

by the way, i told my wife i have to stop reading these blogs, or we will never buy a house in irvine...
 
Mello-roos is a flat fee, not a percentage of the home price. When you purchase a home, a seller must disclose the Mello-roos amount and all other taxes. Your agent, if you have one, can give you an estimate.
 
Ahhh...I see. I was confused by seeing the cumulative total of Mello -roos, HOAs, and property tax presented as a single percentage amount. I'm trying to figure out a monthly total for a home that, despite the wonderfully detailed information on this site, I might buy in PS.

Unless, of course, I'm turned off by the garbage trucks and lack of retail center when I go visit this weekend :)
 
For the sake of convenience, Mello Roos and the basic levy tax rate/bonds should be lumped together to find a "single percentage" amount. You do not get separate bills for the special assessment and your basic taxes. They are both aggregated.
 
Hmmm....looking at 38 Gray Dove at the OC Tax site I see an item 'R2 MELLO-ROOS' for $684.69 and other charges for smaller amounts under the category 'special assessment user fees', but I don't see the time interval. Is this a quarterly fee? Thank you for all of the help.
 
It's a yearly assessment. The amounts you see is the owner's actual tax bill, so you can use the percentages to estimate what your taxes would be.

For 38 GRAY DOVE, I added the amounts and the approx tax rate is 1.04% + approx 700/year in mello roos, sewer, etc.

So if you purchased the house at 800k, your taxes will be approx $9020 per year ($752/month)..........and that's not including HOA!
 
So, for the listed price - 1,223,597, that's ~17,100 in taxes + ~700 for mello-roos, etc.

That's ~$1500/month + HOAs.

All for 2700 square feet on a 5000 square foot lot.

So, now I just need to figure in the value of keeping my 3 kids in the same house and school district for the next, oh, 15 years. Is there an algorithm for that ;)
 
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