Poll: Lakers v. Magic FINALS

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irvine_grad_IHB

New member
Didn't realize that we had a few Laker fans on the board. How many games do you think this series will go?



Thoughts: If Bynum gets it together and they feed Pau on the post, I think Lakers can take it in 6. Our biggest problem is Dwight (duh) so if Bynum can single cover him w/o fouling out, it'll allow perimeter defenders to close out faster (specifically Pau to Rashard). If Bynum keeps forgetting how to play...well it'll be interesting.
 
I'm predicting Lakers will win 1 home, 1 away, then the final 2 at home, making it a 7 game series.



I'm *hoping* for a Lakers victory in fewer games, but I also like the suspense of a good series!
 
If they can limit Howard's deep catches in the post/dunks, without doubling, expect the Magic's perimeter players to have legitimate hands in their faces and not shoot nearly as well from 3. I'd say pound it in to Gasol/Bynum to get Howard a few early fouls and open it up for Kobe/Ariza.



Lakers in 6, but only because I don't want to be overconfident. It has been rough all postseason and I don't expect a walk in the Finals either.
 
I'm hoping they don't split at home at all. In the 2-3-2 format, it seems like it would be a huge disadvantage to go to Orlando for 3 games tied 1-1.
 
*Pitooey! Pau GASShole is a racist! I wish some OG(BK) would take a pipe to that fools knees. Anyway, professional basketball is like professional wrestling except the players don't know that it's fixed like a newly released puppy from the pound.
 
Sorry... it's not that I'm a Kobe hater... if it had been Cleveland or Boston in the finals.... I would be pro-Lakers.



But seeing as how the Magic fought hard to get there... I'll give it to the new Superman & Co in 5 or 6.
 
The Lakes got lots of fouls to use against Howard. If we foul out Powell, Benga, and Bynum, that'll be 20-25 trips to the line for Dwight. His percentage from the field was higher than from the line in 2 of the past 3 seasons. Hopefully they are smart enough to single cover him and foul him early and often. Better to have him earning them from the stripe than rocking the rim with dunks...



Lakers in 6. Jameer lit the Lakers up this year, as do most of the little speedy guards, and he either won't be playing or will be rusty/limited. Alston isn't nearly as fast with the ball and is streaky as hell. The week off should really help LO's back. His poor play, along with the continued lameness of D-Fish (how can someone be that bad for so long?!), allowed that Houston series to go 7...
 
Hack-A-Shaq is not going to be as fruitful with Dwight. He showed in the Cleveland series (and most of the post season) that he can knock down the freebies too.



The biggest problem with the Lakers will be defending the Magic... they would have had an easier time with Boston or Cleveland. The problem is you'll either have to single cover Dwight (which close to impossible) or double and risk the other 4 3-pt shooters to bury you. Lakers are not very good at defending the 3-ball. Even if Jameer doesn't play... with Turkey-Glue being the primary ball handler... that's going to draw one of the Laker's bigger players out of the Dwight zone.
 
[quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1244081298]Lakers are not very good at defending the 3-ball. </blockquote>


I disagree. On the season, the Lakers were #3 in the league in terms of defending against the triple. Opponents shot 34% from beyond the arc against them. This tied them with Orlando for the year. Only Cleveland was better...



For the playoffs, they are allowing the lowest 3-point shooting percentage of any team - 31%. Some of that post-season success is a factor of the relatively poor outside shooting in general of Utah and Denver.



3-point defense is mostly a function of two things, speed and length of wing defenders, and whether or not teams can guard the post with single coverage. With Drew, Pau, and LO defending the paint, the Lakers don't make a habit of doubling post players. This allows the relatively tall, long, and quick-reacting wing defenders, Kobe and Trevor, to remain closer to their assigned covers and bother/harass those shooting the deep ball.



Orlando got almost three triples per game out of Pietrus in the Cleveland series. He was on fire @ almost 50% from long range. I don't expect that to continue. He will return to earth and shoot his 35% or so in the Finals.
 
[quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1244081298]Hack-A-Shaq is not going to be as fruitful with Dwight. He showed in the Cleveland series (and most of the post season) that he can knock down the freebies too.</blockquote>


Howard shot 54% against Boston this post-season. Against both Boston and Philly, his FG% was higher than his FT%. He is a career 60% shooter from the stripe. I will practically guarantee that he will regress toward his historical mean, i.e. he will shoot closer to his normal 60% vs. the 70% he did against Cleveland. Heck, I'd be willing to lay down some money on that...
 
Stats can be skewed. I think anyone whose majority of shots are in the paint.. and dunks... are of course going to have a higher FG% than FT%.



I'm not talking about numbers... just by what I've seen in games this post season. That stat isn't just because they defended the 3-ball better... it's because the opposing team didn't shoot as well. The Magic has 3-point shooters from all 4 positions which makes it tough for the Lakers because they either have to single Dwight or rotate really well. From what I've seen... their rotation sucks... and when they try to extend out... there is a cutter that often scores unimpeded. Now granted, I've probably only seen a handful of Laker games during the playoffs but there is a pattern I see every time they play and it doesn't look good enough to me to defend the Magic.



Basketball isn't just numbers... statistically Fish should not be sucking like he is... but he is... and I don't know if he will be any better against the Magic. Statistically... Boston and Cleveland should have beat the Magic... but here we with Orlando in the playoffs. Numbers doesn't measure heart and will... which I think you can agree... the Lakers have had many lapses in this post season.



This is my opinion based on what I've seen in the post season... sorry if it doesn't jive with your spreadsheet... but I'm sure Excel doesn't have Magic in the Finals either.
 
BTW... I don't know the numbers... but Dwight's FT% was still higher than Shaq's right? That's why Hack-A-Shaq won't be as fruitful... I'm not saying Dwight will be a 90% shooter... but there comes a time when hitting 1 of 2 free throws (vs 0 of 2 free throws) with no time coming off the clock isn't as beneficial to the opposing team.
 
[quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1244088461]Stats can be skewed. I think anyone whose majority of shots are in the paint.. and dunks... are of course going to have a higher FG% than FT%.



I'm not talking about numbers... just by what I've seen in games this post season. That stat isn't just because they defended the 3-ball better... it's because the opposing team didn't shoot as well. The Magic has 3-point shooters from all 4 positions which makes it tough for the Lakers because they either have to single Dwight or rotate really well. From what I've seen... their rotation sucks... and when they try to extend out... there is a cutter that often scores unimpeded. Now granted, I've probably only seen a handful of Laker games during the playoffs but there is a pattern I see every time they play and it doesn't look good enough to me to defend the Magic.



Basketball isn't just numbers... statistically Fish should not be sucking like he is... but he is... and I don't know if he will be any better against the Magic. Statistically... Boston and Cleveland should have beat the Magic... but here we with Orlando in the playoffs. Numbers doesn't measure heart and will... which I think you can agree... the Lakers have had many lapses in this post season.



This is my opinion based on what I've seen in the post season... sorry if it doesn't jive with your spreadsheet... but I'm sure Excel doesn't have Magic in the Finals either.</blockquote>


I've watched pretty much every Lakers game, or at least parts thereof, since the early 90's. I agree they have not performed well during the post-season, but expect them to play more similarly to their regular season efficiency against Orlando. The Lakers have played mediocre and dispatched the hottest team going into the playoffs (Denver) in six games. They had more wins than Orlando on the season and played out West. If the Lakers would have played in the East, they'd have won 70 games this year...



I watched the vast majority of Orlando's games these playoffs also. They should have beat Boston and done so in less than seven games. Boston was without KG, their best defender and significant offensive presence. Boston was also without Leon Powe, who gave them 18 minutes per night off the bench in the paint. Any team that is giving significant burn to Brian Scalabrine in the playoffs is in a sad state of affairs... One of Boston's better wing defenders (sure would have been handy against those 3-point shooters) was hurt during the playoffs as well and a non-contributor.



Orlando did have a fantastic series against Cleveland, but many of contributing factors to their win were abberations. Howard will not shoot 70% from the line again. Pietrus will not shoot 50% from the arc. Cleveland wouldn't brick that many free throws again if they played another 7-game series. Mo Williams, who is normally pretty consistent, was terrible against Orlando and not likely to shoot 37% from the field again if they re-ran those games.



Teams can get lucky and/or rise to the occassion but rarely if ever can that be sustained over multiple best of seven playoff series... Orlando should come back down to earth. They aren't as good (without Jameer Nelson) as their playoff run has suggested.
 
Well... that's the rub isn't it... which Laker team and which Magic team will we see? If you want to go by straight statistics, the Magic 2-0ed the Lakers... so they should beat them in the Finals too right? Esp if Jameer shows up.



Maybe it's more wishful thinking on my part.. my previous post has a typo... I am a Kobe hater... the OC Register had a great article on him today... that many fans feel the same:



<a href="http://www.ocregister.com/articles/bryant-jordan-fans-2440224-one-fan">http://www.ocregister.com/articles/bryant-jordan-fans-2440224-one-fan</a>



<em>

Bryant's clumsy position in basketball lore, however, is better summed up by a single quote, a quote we all have heard.



"I'm a Lakers fan but not a Kobe fan."



You have heard that one, right? From a friend? A co-worker? A spouse? From yourself, perhaps?



Now try to imagine someone in the 1980s saying they were a Lakers fan but not a Magic Johnson fan. The idea is beyond absurd. Consider a person in Boston saying, "I'm a Celtics fan but not a Bird fan." Ridiculous.

</em>

Plus I love the underdog.



Go Magic. Go Superman 2.0!
 
[quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1244091178]Well... that's the rub isn't it... which Laker team and which Magic team will we see? If you want to go by straight statistics, the Magic 2-0ed the Lakers... so they should beat them in the Finals too right? Esp if Jameer shows up.</blockquote>


I know you aren't a stats fan, but Orlando was won 78% of its games up until Nelson went down. That figure dropped to 64% for the balance of the season. If you sub out Jameer's stats with Alston's, the Lakers would have 2-0'ed the Magic this year and 3-0'ed them since the trade for Gasol. How much and how well Nelson plays will be a huge factor.



Another tidbit I found interest with regards to the Lakers. They won 80% of their games up until Bynum got injured but only fell to 78% afterward. In the 12 games prior to his injury, Bynum was averaging 21 points, 9 rebounds and 2 blocks per game. Those are All-Star numbers. The Lakers were able to absorb the loss of someone playing at an All-Star level with no material difference to their ratio of success.
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1244092364][quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1244091178]Well... that's the rub isn't it... which Laker team and which Magic team will we see? If you want to go by straight statistics, the Magic 2-0ed the Lakers... so they should beat them in the Finals too right? Esp if Jameer shows up.</blockquote>


I know you aren't a stats fan, but Orlando was won 78% of its games up until Nelson went down. That figure dropped to 64% for the balance of the season. If you sub out Jameer's stats with Alston's, the Lakers would have 2-0'ed the Magic this year and 3-0'ed them since the trade for Gasol. How much and how well Nelson plays will be a huge factor.

</blockquote>
Which is why I want them to win... they lost one of their best players but still made it through Boston and Cleveland.

<blockquote>

Another tidbit I found interest with regards to the Lakers. They won 80% of their games up until Bynum got injured but only fell to 78% afterward. In the 12 games prior to his injury, Bynum was averaging 21 points, 9 rebounds and 2 blocks per game. Those are All-Star numbers. The Lakers were able to absorb the loss of someone playing at an All-Star level with no material difference to their ratio of success.</blockquote>
That's misleading. We all know the centerpiece is Ga-Soft. Without him, the Lakers would be horrible... seems like Jerry West was still on the LA payroll and pulled some strings to Jedi-mind trick Memphis into that trade after he left.



And you still have to deal with OCDom. If his head is in the game... it will be hard to beat the Lakers... but we'll see which Lamar shows up too (sorry... I've been against Lamar ever since he was a Clipper... I was so glad to see him shipped to Miami and then they bring him back to LA... DOH!).
 
So a gentleman's bet?



Lakers win Game 1... I owe you another round at the next IHB meetup (I still owe you one from last time).



Orlando wins Game 1... you owe me a soda?
 
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