Pacifica San Juan

irvinesinglemom - Is there a full moon? I feel the fangs and claws coming out, and the hair on the back of my neck rising.
 
<p>So .... since I am new .... let me ask you guys ...</p>

<p>The new homes being released at the end of July in Pacifica San Juan by K. Hovanian (Coastline) ...</p>

<p>I know it's a little early, but what do you think of them in terms of resale values? They're probably going to have the best views in the master-planned community, however they're so close to the freeway, so will be very loud. And, their lots are pretty small - even for the models.</p>

<p>So, my real estate friends always tell me that a good view is the most important. But, how far does a view carry you? Would it outweigh the noisy freeway? The small lots? The high HOA? The Mello-Roos? </p>
 
<p>Laing - it is all subjective. every buyer is different and thus values things differently. I mean there is a general consensus that noise is bad, view is good, low fees is good, etc. But there is no magic formula. </p>

<p>Now that someone else has mentioned it, you do seem very noobish. From being particular about 1st phase releases for appreciation to wanting resale values for each variable.</p>

<p>For most people looking for a home, and not an investment or flip, the resale value will be inherent in your decision. In other words, if you look for a home that you want, when it comes time to sell, there are probably others that will be wanting the same thing and desire your home for it as well.</p>

<p> </p>
 
<p>Yes I smell a newbie but a courteous one so I will be nice. </p>

<p>Laing_Lies - First welcome to the forums. You will find a wide array of opinions and some growling bears and some snorting bulls. You will also find many of us have industry experience and home buying experience. Both on the bear and the bull side.</p>

<p>Next let me address the VIP treatment with Laing and all homebuilders at that. The VIPs are not just people who work for Laing but they have some sort of connection to them. It may be political like a city council member or since SunCal was the developer it could be someone there too. Now knowing that can you see why they kiss the ground they walk on? Is it fair? Heck no! If it gets really out of hand I know a senior VP at Laing that can bust some heads for you.</p>

<p>On to the next phase gotta get into the first phase myth. Yes this was true and for this project is still true but will it last. Personally I haven't been there so I do not know much about the project other that what I have heard and what I have heard has been good. Does that mean they will continue to sell as well as the intial phases? In my experience even the best of communities are selling for less mid-way or close to the end. If they do how would you feel if they lowered the price and were offering $50k in incentives to sell them? If that doesn't bother you then fine. Also consider one of those VIPs may try to flip their "home" and once things get rough and they are fighting the builder on the way down on the price it could get worse. </p>

<p>As for SJC some of the neighborhoods are not so great. Depending on where you work or if you even have to leave the house but the drive can wear on you. View does add value and the rest of your outweighs is a matter of opinion. I have a big lot, single story, no hoa and no mello roos home but it is older, no view and next to a busy street. I'm happy and really the only thing I would do different is not on such a busy street. What one values another may value more or another may value less. So what do you value as more that is all that matters if you plan on being there 10 years or more.</p>

<p>How many units are they building there? And stay away from KHov. They have a bit of a cashflow problem and I'd be willing to bet Laing and their oil money will end up finishing their project. Just a hunch. Mmm should I start a website called builder-implode-o-meter?</p>
 
<p>Graphrix -</p>

<p>Thank you for being nice, despite the fact that I am a newbie. </p>

<p>Belle Cliff is planned for 70 homes. They've sold approximately 40 of those up to now through 5 phases. The first few phases sold out quickly. And, as expected, now after 5 phases, there are several homes left - I think 4 or 5. </p>

<p>I would definitely appreciate everyone's opinions and advice - bears and bulls alike. I'm just starting out in my career, and this is only the second home purchase I've been through, so I am the first one to admit that I have a lot to learn. I plan on staying in SJC for a good number of years, and bought at Belle Cliff because of the location (proximity to coast and to my work), price and timeline (expected move-in date). </p>

<p>Thank you for the advice regarding the K. Hovanian homes. After entering a purchase contract for Belle Cliff, there is no way I could afford another home in the community (at K. Hovanian's). I just wanted to gauge what people thought of Coastline. </p>
 
LL: what many of us don't understand (and therefore what causes us to sometimes rudely "roll our eyes" at you via our posts), is how you could have gotten this far (the forums on irvinehousingblog) without, apparently, catching a drift of the credit bubble that is popping all around us. This is not a matter of opinion - facts and data illustrate the snowball on a daily basis. So I, at least, remain absolutely stunned that there are so many highly intelligent, educated, thoughtful people out there who still think housing prices will continue to grow into the sky.



Have you spent some time reading IrvineRenter's analytical posts on this blog on the economic situation unfolding around us? I strongly suggest you spend some time doing your homework, before jumping into another mortgage.



Okay, that's my $.02. Now I'm off to Costco to be a good American and go shopping!
 
<p>Laing_Lies -- Don't take this the wrong way, but you're just starting out in your career and you bought a $1m+ home that will in all likelihood carry a combined property tax, mello-roos and HOA burden of over $23,000/year...not to mention your mortgage payment, whatever it may be...did they qualify you based on your income? Are you a lawyer or a doctor? I figured everyone in that community who was buying based on income (even with a 20% down payment) must be earning in excess of $200k/year. Or did you make a bundle from the sale of your previous home and are rolling that into a massive down payment? </p>

<p>As for the Coastline community, it's impossible to gauge resale value without knowing what the homes will be sold at, and KHov hasn't released pricing yet. I know that community well, and while I think it should command a premium over other new home communities in Talega and Ladera due to its closer proximity to the beaches and OC's business districts (Costa Mesa, Irvine), a lot of that premium is built into the price in the form of higher HOAs ($469/month) and Mello-Roos taxes ($7,000+/yr). I think that the KHov homes should be priced lower than the Belle Cliff homes, given their lower elevation on the hill (underneath the Belle Cliff homes) and their smaller lot sizes. The front row ocean view homes will command a premium, but, as you noted, they are also closer to the 5 freeway. My guess is that KHov will attempt to sell the front row homes for ~$1.4m (~$435/sq. ft.) and the interior homes for ~$1.1m (~$350/sq. ft.), but that is just a guess. The bigger question will be how many buyers they can find at those prices, since Laing has already scooped up all of the eager buyers in the first four phase releases of Belle Cliff. Now it seems that Laing is having a hard time finding more buyers for phases 5 and up, so KHov may have to lower prices to stoke interest.</p>
 
<p>Irvinesinglemom & Marty Mcfly:</p>

<p>Thank you for your advice and suggestions :) I don't mind the eye-rolling because I do sincerely appreciate your input. I read blogs like this one and others because, like I've said, I'm just starting out and there is a lot I don't know. However, with that being said, here's an obvious statement: everyone's situation is different.</p>

<p>For me, I've spent several years looking at homes and prices just for fun - I was not yet in a position to purchase. I've joined numerous interest lists. When Belle Cliff announced it's grand opening, I almost did not attend just because they had released earlier that they were going to start prices in the mid-$1.5Millions.</p>

<p>Thus, I was pleasantly surprised and glad when I went. In my opinion, these Laing homes have sold so well (over 40 homes in the past 5 months) is because they have adjusted their price to reflect the current market conditions. I understand that most of you will not agree with that - and again, that is fine. Prices perhaps will come down some more, however it was just the right time for me to get in on the right location for me. I'm almost afraid to say this (because of the backlash), but besides being a place to live in, the house will be a major tax deduction for me. I'm sure that Marty's calculations regarding income are quite accurate. And, to answer his question, I am making in excess of that amount. </p>

<p>Anyway, again, I really do appreciate your input and suggestions. I'm not bragging about my purchase or even pretending that I know anything about this housing market. Everything was just right for my individual situation. </p>

<p>My initial goal was to relay how disappointed I am with John Laing's customer service (not the sales counselors, but the corporate side). </p>

<p><strong>Graphrix: I'd be very interested in knowing who that Senior VP you know is. How can I share my story with you without posting it in the general discussion? Is that the "whisper" section?</strong> </p>
 
<p>LL - Yes if I were to whisper to you who the senior VP that I know is it would be between you and me. If you are familar with message boards it is like PM = private message. I am pretty sure why Belle Cliff ended up with the current pricing it is because of him. We had an intresting discussion with the Sales Director and Marketing Director of the builder we worked at about the falling knife theory. I got it and so did he but they looked at us like we were insane. Needless to say the specific property he was talking about didn't sell until much later because they slowly dropped the price trying to keep up with the falling market. Had they priced it less in the begining it would have cost them less. Anyway feel free to whisper me your story of if you prefer you can email me at <a href="mailto:graphrix@irvinehousingblog.com">graphrix@irvinehousingblog.com</a>. </p>

<p>I think LL shows a clear difference of someone who comes here for info and realizes that many here know what they are talking about than someone who is smug that just thinks of us as bitter renters. Judging by the comments so far some of the biggest bears like myself have responded in a kind and respectful way. I may be a bear and I wouldn't recommend buying RE right now. But if you are in a conservative financially stable situation in which you will not be scared off by price drops and are looking at a place like Belle Cliff that is priced right at the moment then it could work out for you. I doubt anyone would receive backlash when someone like LL posts in a respectful way. I think that is true with most message boards. </p>
 
I wanted to add some color to this discussion as I have been doing research on Belle Cliffe (am still in the top 10 on the waitlist), Blue Harbor, and Tallega. I presently own a home in Irvine (Quail Hill) that I bought new in early 2004.





Belle Cliffe: (1) the dues are 500 a month because of that massive hillside that must be maintained; (2) part of the money goes to what I will call a common defense fund in case part of the hillside comes down (on or with a house or houses attached; (3) the first two phase releases were standing room only, the third was less trafficked with remaining inventorty, the fourth, ghost town. Part of this is that the "partially obstructed" and "semi obstructed ocean view homes climbed into the 1.4 - 1.6 range (before options and landscaping mind you, tack on 200k to do it right); (4) the first few phases made sense and were heavily trafficked because you could get a 3,500 sq foot house for 1.1 to 1.2. With the newer pricing, the cost per square foot and location are somewhat less attractive (Phase 1 and 2 were pre credit collapse, Phase 3 during credit collapse, phase 4 post). and (5) the neigborhood is just OK, the amenities for your 500 a month are weak (compared to Quail Hill) and even the Ocean side homes are going to have the views obstructed by the K Hovanian homes. All in all, beautiful homes (best I have seen in that range), scary hillside, average amenities, OK neighborhood and have gotten expensive with no design center credits. We are going to pass.





Blue Harbor: Take the negatives above, add dirt and noise from the 5, reduce the potential for ocean views and increase the prices. Now you have the sum total of my opinion of Blue Harbor. Pass.





Tallega: Here is the rub on Tallega. The prices are coming down (you don't want to debate me on this, I have been tracking a series of homes and watching them come down), you can get ocean views, you get a lot more for your money than in Irvine. Everyone who lives there wants to convert you and says it is the greatest place on the planet. So here are my issues: (1) it is far, I mean really far away; don't forget that once you get off the 5, it is still 10 minutes (at least) to get to your house, if you have to spend any time in LA or Northern Orange County, tell your significant other that you will be spending one night a week in a hotel (I used this one to stay out of buying a house down there, it worked); (2) Once all of those 3200 - 4500 sq foot houses are complete, can your really tell the difference between them? When we walk through new models, we like certain floorplans, when we look at resales, we look at cost per square foot. So if you buy and lose your job, get transferred, want to retire, want to downsize, whatever, what will be the selling point for your house against an inventory of similar houses (they all have granite, they all have open areas, they all have lots of bedrooms). It goes to lot size and view in my opinion; and (3) the schools are going to be overrun. We looked at a home on a cul de sac with 14 homes. The woman who lived next door told us there were 21 kids on that street, the oldest being 8. Let that sink in for a minute. Most of the kids in Tallega are not even in school yet and the elementary school is full and some of the kids are in trailers. The schools are rated well now, wait 3-4 years when the bulk of these young families send their kids to school.





So Tallega is great is you are staying forever, I'm not sold yet.





Our bottom line is we are going to sit tight. If I lose some equity in my home in the meantime I am not super concerned. I applaud the members of the board (and the author of the board) for creating truly addicting content and interaction. Hang tough. The deals are out there, you have to be patient.





Feel free to send comments to jsboxer@yahoo.com
 
<p>jsboxer - Thanks for sharing, and I share almost all of your views of the areas.</p>

<p>Do you know anything more specific regarding the schools in Talega? Will they be doing anything to relieve the pressure? Are the parents pushing for anything?</p>
 
<p>Jsboxer:</p>

<p>Have you considered the William Lyon homes in Rancho Madrina (particularly, Floralisa)? Prices have come down significantly since their peak about one year ago. And, they're offering pretty hefty upgrade incentives.</p>

<p> </p>
 
jsbpxer brought up an interesting point about the massive slope. I didn't know that HOAs were now resorting to building up funds to pay for slides. Smart, but a bit disconserting.<p>

Now, my two cents: I am a land surveryor and have told my wife anytime we were seriously looking at buying a home, we will never, never, never, etc., buy a home on a fill slope.
 
<p>jsboxer: great take on south oc. May I ask why the desire to leave Quail Hill? Are you outgrowing your house? I stopped by the Coastline sales office today. They haven't released pricing yet but they told me the ocean view homes are going to be around $1.8m (yes, that's an "8"), and the interior homes -- the ones w/Belle Cliff staring down at them -- will be around $1.1m. If the interior homes really are $1.1m, and not 1.16m or 1.18m, I can see those going quick, just like all the "slopeside" homes in Belle Cliff went pretty quick. As for the ocean view homes, the freeway noise was definitely noticeable from the sales office, which is on one of the ocean view lots. So I don't think it's worth the huge premium, esp. when Belle Cliff is offering two of their fully furnished and landscaped ocean view models for less than that.</p>

<p>I don't know about that hillside being susceptible to collapse; I'm fairly confident that a developer like SunCal and public builders like Laing and Hovnanian would engineer the hell out of everything to make sure there was no chance of anything happening that could result in a lawsuit or even negative publicity, esp. when it concerns safety.</p>

<p>Couldn't agree more w/your take on Blue Harbor. They sold four of the eight in the first phase. I didn't think they would sell more than 2. I just don't get it.</p>

<p>Re all the kids in Talega, it seems to rebut the theory that all the young families are picking up and moving out of state. Maybe they're just leaving Irvine and Newport and moving to Talega.</p>
 
<p>Coastline said they were releasing their prices next Saturday, July 14th, and starting their sales at the end of this month (even though their models will not be completed until the end of October).</p>

<p>Marty: Do you know which of the released homes sold at Blue Harbor? Were any of them single-level? There seems to be a lot of interest for the single-level homes, both at Blue Harbor and Coastline (from what the sales counselors have told me).</p>

<p> </p>
 
<i>"I don't know about that hillside being susceptible to collapse; I'm fairly confident that a developer like SunCal and public builders like Laing and Hovnanian would engineer the hell out of everything to make sure there was no chance of anything happening that could result in a lawsuit or even negative publicity, esp. when it concerns safety."</i><p>

Every fill slope that has ever collapsed has been "engineered". When you put engineers and geologists up against gravity, water, and earthquakes, mother nature wins every time, and engineers will not argue that.<p>

In my career I have monitered at least 50 slides and every single one has been engineered.
 
<p>LL: I don't know which four sold. You might try asking the author of <a href="http://pacificasanjuan.blogspot.com">http://pacificasanjuan.blogspot.com</a>. He/she seems to be in the know on all things Belle Cliff. You're right about the interest in single level homes. I think it's a baby boomer thing -- everything on one floor means no going up and down stairs. That's probably also why the plan 1 at Belle Cliff with the first floor master bedroom was so popular.</p>

<p>awgee: I can't argue with a land surveyor. I hope the developer and builders have good attorneys if there is a slide!</p>
 
+ With respect to specifics around Tallega schools and what they are going to do: don't know. The trailers are plainly visible and my concern around growth is anecdotal based on friends who live there with lots of children, all the small children I see when I go there, and from meeting people there. Clearly, not too scientific.





+ Why would I leave Quail Hill? I have a wife and two kids and live in about 1500 sq ft. We actually park our cars in our garage (unlike most of the neighbors) so we don't have a ton of extra space. A year ago, my goal was to keep this house as an investment and buy a bigger one. That was before there were 400 blogs about the coming housing bust. Also, there is not much of a community sense here. I have a lot of friends in other neighborhoods who are friendly with all of their neighbors and the kids play together in the parks or in the street. In our area (Quail Hill has a lot of homes) people pull up, go in their house and don't come out (some of this may be cultural, this area is racially mixed so my expectation may be substantially culturally different than my neighbors). I would like an area where people spend more time outside around their houses.





+ With regard to the slope, my previous career was in construction defect litigation. I can't fairly say if the slope will come down. I would state that California hillsides are by definition created by ancient landslides. You can engineer and fill a hillside, and the landslide can be created beneath the fill. It is a bit of a crapshoot. I have seen whole neighborhoods sue each other over these things. I reviewed the fill plans for Belle Cliffe (they are available if you ask) along with the CC&Rs. I am not an engineer, but it made me understand the cost of the HOA dues. They put a ton of work into that hillside to make sure that water leaves the area quickly. My advice to those who will buy (it is always a personal decision and one buy will not destroy the macro economics behind the housing bust we are waiting for) read every single document you can get your hands on from cover to cover.





+ Floralisa: Interesting designs, big big houses and the prices have come down (they keep stalking us), BUT, no offense, I'm not buying a 1.1 - 1.5 million dollar house next to a trailer park. The area is not great and you are betting that others will come in and improve the area. I like to bet on me, not others.
 
<p>LL: If you are going to be purchasing at PSJ--I do suggest sticking with Laing at Belle Cliffe. The floorplans are alot better than Khov's. And the reason why people have been on interest lists for so long with PSJ is because the city was making outrageous demands to Sun-Cal after they were to deliver lots to builders. I work for a builder that backd out of PSJ because we couldnt wait longer. Initially, models were to open in the fall 2005! Sun-Cal had us market the community in advance too to garner interest. And now that it is finally opening, im very curious to see how it does play out!</p>
 
<p>Keitht925:</p>

<p>Pacifica San Juan first advertised that it was going to have 5 communities and a potential school site. Now, it advertises 7 new communities. Laing has Belle Cliff and Blue Harbor. K.Hov has Coastline. Do you know which other builders plan on coming in?</p>
 
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