OT: Dollar 80 support - your opinions

D

Darin_IHB

New member
For anyone watching the dollar index, I'm just curious what your take will be on whether we break 80 or not. My 2 interests are the Chinese buying gold, precious metals, or more Blackstones (or not), and second, whether institutional investors and their computers will be triggered to do something at 80. Part of me wants to pull the trigger on long gold, but I've never purchased metals and it's all intellectual to me.





Consensus seems to be a bounce from 80. What about you guys?
 
<p>Just from the pits over here, gold seems like it would a nice little hedge. But that's just me. </p>

<p>Anyways good luck</p>

<p>-bix</p>
 
USD may bounce. Or it may not. And it is irrelevant. The dollar is toast. The federal reserve stopped publishing M3 in March of last year, but some individuals are still calculating US M3 growth at +11%. If you inflate the money supply by a minimum of 11%, the fiat currency can do nothing but devalue. 80 as a measure of the USD is misleading since it is just being measured against a basket of other inflated currencies. To realistically measure the lack of confidence in the USD, check it against gold for the past few years, or against a basket of commodities.<p><p>

But, I have to agree, anything lower than 80 could start a sell off. But, the most important thing to watch if and when an acute sell off of the USD occurs, will be the relative value of the yen.
 
I like going to the site<a href="http://www.tradethemarkets.com/"> http://www.tradethemarkets.com/</a>





The guy who runs the site is a professional futures trader. He is bearish the dollar and bullish on gold.





But then again, he could be wrong.





BTW, awgee's analysis is right on.
 
Interesting subject. During my last visit with my dentist he was encouraging me to get into FOREX trading. I guess he's been doing well - buying on support, selling on resistance. I hear $1,000 leverages $100,000 worth of currency so a small move can make you a great % return. I don't know much more than this haven't looked into it yet What I do know is me and my wife's 401ks are heavily invested in foreign, wifes is up 16% YTD with mine 11%+ YTD. Also have another fund overseas that is doing decent teen returns plus the currency exchange with a tanking dollar is extra gravy on top. Amazing its $2.05 to buy a pound and $1.38+ to buy a euro!! Amazing how the government can say we aren't inflating...total BS.
 
mediaboyz - <i>"During my last visit with my dentist he was encouraging me to get into FOREX trading. I guess he's been doing well - buying on support, selling on resistance. I hear $1,000 leverages $100,000 worth of currency so a small move can make you a great % return."</i><p><p>

If I had a dollar for everyone who said they were trading sucessfully ... <p><p>

On daily trading volume, Forex dwarfs every other market, including equities, bonds, oil, commodities, and even derivatives. And the reason is because the biggest institutions play Forex and they play it with black boxes. Forex is a zero sum game and only the pros make money. Forex is the quickest way for a newbie to lose assets. Leveraged commodities being second.<p><p>

It sounds like you are doing great in your 401ks. Why add risk?
 
mediaboyz:





You could just shift some of your 401k funds over to global stock or emerging market (note: higher risk) type funds, if you're looking for higher rate of return. It's probably a safer bet than to swim with the sharks.





I'm at least 30 years from retirement, so it doesn't bother me to see my accounts ride like a roller coaster. Your situation may differ.
 
momopi - Mine is with Merrill Lynch in the "aggressive" model 100%. My wife's is 70% foreign, 30% domestic stocks.


I'm with you around 30 years from retirement so I don't care if it tanks when it goes down.


However, I have a friend who is looking at his 401k to help with a downpayment on a house, then its a whole different situation.


Right now just trying to be patient and payoff debt and save more $ for our home some year which is a balancing act.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top