Orchard Hills Update Website

[quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1206155381]I would guess they would be able to get $275-$300 per square foot on new construction in 2011. That would put pricing of 3000 SF homes from $825,000 - $900,000.</blockquote>


I think you are right on the mark with this.



I would even go on to say it will take 2-3 years to finish Woodbury, and 6-8 years to finish the 5 segments of PS. We might not see OH or Laguna Crossing opening till 2016.
 
[quote author="PadreBrian" date=1211002963][quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1206155381]I would guess they would be able to get $275-$300 per square foot on new construction in 2011. That would put pricing of 3000 SF homes from $825,000 - $900,000.</blockquote>


I think you are right on the mark with this.



I would even go on to say it will take 2-3 years to finish Woodbury, and 6-8 years to finish the 5 segments of PS. We might not see OH or Laguna Crossing opening till 2016.</blockquote>


I seriously do not see 2016 for OH. Several communities could start at he same time when the segmentation and qualities of brand are well differentiated. OH will probably start about 2012 when the luxury foreclosures are gone and no longer a price threat to the profit margin to OH. OH imo could be concurrently in the same market as LC because of the 2 locations being so different and would not compete for the same pool of buyers.



Woodbury East would be the most likely to be released first since products are built. Celedon may be modified to meet the expectations of consumers before the grand opening.



Pre-bubble products will be obsolete due to the attitude of demanding bears and existing models will likely be sold off while the remaining parcels would have to be replaced with smarter products.



In the meanwhile buyers who want a new home will get very agitated with the waiting game. The game is to see who will get desperate first.
 
The only reason I put OH out to 2016, 8 years from now is due to the supply of 1-4 Million dollar lots that are out there in relation to the small number of those buyers. They just aren't there. No doc loans with zero down are as gone as the flying doo-doo bird, and there's only so many doctors and lawyers that needs homes. 2011 is being way to optimistic considering Irvine Ranch wants to keep OH as the top tier community.



You're completely right about Laguna Crossing, it's aimed at a different market. I will be watching this one very very closely...it's more what I am looking for. btw, you're right about home builders are going to have to go back to the drawing board regarding home designs. In the last few years it was all about the number of bedrooms you could shove into your plan. Homebuilders were lazy and everything looks the same. From now on they are going to have to go back to the more open more outside friendly designs.



and, yeah, i totally agree. Woodbury East is most likely being redone as we speak. I expect much more affordable homes that are more outdoor/Asian friendly.
 
I totally agree with you on design of floor plans. The highest end products at OH will probably be released 2014 after a couple of years of sale momentums starting 2012. What may be for sale initially could be the lowest rung products to align with the marketplace demands.



[quote author="PadreBrian" date=1211007451]The only reason I put OH out to 2016, 8 years from now is due to the supply of 1-4 Million dollar lots that are out there in relation to the small number of those buyers. They just aren't there. No doc loans with zero down are as gone as the flying doo-doo bird, and there's only so many doctors and lawyers that needs homes. 2011 is being way to optimistic considering Irvine Ranch wants to keep OH as the top tier community.



You're completely right about Laguna Crossing, it's aimed at a different market. I will be watching this one very very closely...it's more what I am looking for. btw, you're right about home builders are going to have to go back to the drawing board regarding home designs. In the last few years it was all about the number of bedrooms you could shove into your plan. Homebuilders were lazy and everything looks the same. From now on they are going to have to go back to the more open more outside friendly designs.



and, yeah, i totally agree. Woodbury East is most likely being redone as we speak. I expect much more affordable homes that are more outdoor/Asian friendly.</blockquote>
 
<img src="http://www.kiso.net/images/ohmap.gif" alt="" />



This is most likely outdated but zooming in using Photoshop there's a lot mixed use properties and not a lot of super-duper large lots like Shady. The lower right hand side seems to be single loaded streets like TRidge, but even the larger lots on the irvine side near the top (in the middle) is dual loaded, probably because they are good views from both sides, orchards in the back or views on the other side..
 
okay, I agree then. Starting 2011ish with lower end, the slowly releasing...hehe I still stick with 20014-2016 for any highend stuff. Thanks' buuble, there some huge lots on that northside...on the hill. Nice layout.
 
[quote author="Bubblegum" date=1211010243]<img src="http://www.kiso.net/images/ohmap.gif" alt="" />



This is most likely outdated but zooming in using Photoshop there's a lot mixed use properties and not a lot of super-duper large lots like Shady. The lower right hand side seems to be single loaded streets like TRidge, but even the larger lots on the irvine side near the top (in the middle) is dual loaded, probably because they are good views from both sides, orchards in the back or views on the other side..</blockquote>


What's the link for the map ? Also, I have seen maps where it shows the street names.
 
This map is part of a presentation that I linked to in this <a href="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/forums/viewthread/94/P50/#20173">Post #90</a> earlier in this thread (page 2).
 
I recently visited Settlers Park in OH and noticed construction crews were still pretty busy. ISM mentioned in a <a href="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/forums/viewthread/2214/">previous post</a> that it was a new Tustin school being built.



TIC also erected two guard houses on adjacent roads leading to the Tustin side of OH (one off of Settlers rd and another parallel rd going further towards the 261). It looks like a similar setup seen at Northpark: manned gate house, one lane for visitors, two lanes with mechanical arms, RFID sensor panels, and cameras for each lane. The sign on the guard houses read "West Grove"--I guess the new name of the gated subdivision. I haven't seen any new guard houses yet for the Irvine side of OH.
 
[quote author="IACRenter" date=1221307596]I recently visited Settlers Park in OH and noticed construction crews were still pretty busy. ISM mentioned in a <a href="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/forums/viewthread/2214/">previous post</a> that it was a new Tustin school being built.



TIC also erected two guard houses on adjacent roads leading to the Tustin side of OH (one off of Settlers rd and another parallel rd going further towards the 261). It looks like a similar setup seen at Northpark: manned gate house, one lane for visitors, two lanes with mechanical arms, RFID sensor panels, and cameras for each lane. The sign on the guard houses read "West Grove"--I guess the new name of the gated subdivision. I haven't seen any new guard houses yet for the Irvine side of OH.</blockquote>


I have been fishing around for information on the new Orchard Hills school as well, as we are strongly considering Northpark and/or OH eventually....But are nervous about making the leap from IUSD to TUSD. Not for the quality of the schools (everyone we know with kids in TUSD raves about the schools) -- but for the overcrowding factor. If we lived in Northpark we don't want the risk of having to shuttle our child to Ladera Elem. in Tustin Ranch every morning.



Anyway, I found this article on the new school....This puts my mind at ease a bit about the overcrowding at Hicks Canyon:



<a href="http://www.tustin.k12.ca.us/HTML/newscenter/intouch/07-08/0806.htm">TUSD Newsletter</a>
 
I drove there today just to see the neighborhood and what is going on, and frankly, there were no construction crews or any kind of work going on anywhere there, just eerily quiet.

On a side note, even though I did like the orchards and the views and the setup, the location kills it all: too far from the jobs, I can't imagine how much time it would take you to get even to the 5 freeway in the morning and then park your car there for the entire rush hour. If they are targeting people who don't have to work to make a living, those people would always prefer closer to the beach, the prestige factor is still pretty strong... I would always pick Newport Beach over Orchard Hills if they price is the same per sq. ft...
 
For those that remember the ridiculously high starting price market survey postcards from OH some time back- I mentioned those to an Irvine Co employee recently and the response was "Yeah, they are definitley reconsidering those price points and are looking at bringing in some lower cost options." Timing is still the mystery other posters have suggested.



SCHB
 
Quite candidly - and selfishly - I kinda like the 2016 number myself.



I live near Culver and Meadowood....Northwood Pointe. The loop around Northwood High is a spectacular bike ride, jog, or even just a walk. A perfectly smooth road surface. Hardly anyone there. The views are breathtaking on a clear day. Traffic noise from Portola is barely audible. Just the sounds of songbirds and the breeze rustling the fire-singed eucalyptuses (Most of which are regenerating quite nicely now, thankfully). Hawks circle in the sky above.



And shopping at the Pavilions Center is a joy. No crowds, no lines, plenty of parking. (But as someone already pointed out - watch those expiration dates!)



I know all this comes at someone's expense (namely, TIC and the merchants in the Center). But I'll take it - and enjoy it - as long as I can.
 
[quote author="jimmydeeoc" date=1243434179]Quite candidly - and selfishly - I kinda like the 2016 number myself.



I live near Culver and Meadowood....Northwood Pointe. The loop around Northwood High is a spectacular bike ride, jog, or even just a walk. A perfectly smooth road surface. Hardly anyone there. The views are breathtaking on a clear day. Traffic noise from Portola is barely audible. Just the sounds of songbirds and the breeze rustling the fire-singed eucalyptuses (Most of which are regenerating quite nicely now, thankfully). Hawks circle in the sky above.



And shopping at the Pavilions Center is a joy. No crowds, no lines, plenty of parking. (But as someone already pointed out - watch those expiration dates!)



I know all this comes at someone's expense (namely, TIC and the merchants in the Center). But I'll take it - and enjoy it - as long as I can.</blockquote>


Nothing is free. Your enjoyment is currently on credit. Your stroll into Orchard Hills enjoying nature and shopping at the spacious shopping center are now facets of daily addictions. You are now subliminally drawn to the trap of Orchard Hills. You will be wanting a home there in the future and then you will be paying back every $$$$ on credit.
 
Nothing new to say here...Just rounding off my IHB post count because I am a really OCD superstitious person about numbers (hey, I'm a finance guy)....And have to leave it on a number I like....
 
...And I really like 755 because I still think Hank is THE MAN. So that's that.



Maybe I'll see some of you in Orchard Hills someday....Or if prices don't fall that far (and I doubt they will) more likely West Irvine. Adios!
 
[quote author="CK" date=1245999662]...And I really like 755 because I still think Hank is THE MAN. So that's that.



Maybe I'll see some of you in Orchard Hills someday....Or if prices don't fall that far (and I doubt they will) more likely West Irvine. Adios!</blockquote>


Come on. You are Gwailanese. 755 is not good enough of a number you got to pick a number that is SGV approved such as 788, 798 or 888. Go back and post some more. You got to stick around so I can have some reasons to mock West Irvine with its endless dead end culdesacs full of driving obstacles like scooters, bikes with training wheels, and kids throwing a tantrum lying at the middle of the street. Just remember to invite me one of your 6 guests to the tent wedding in the future. Can I recommend you to put a termite style tent over the entire house so you can invite more guests like your neighbors IPO, IR2 and others.
 
I took a docent led 2 hours hiking into Orchard Hills last week and I have to admit that this will be the last, best of the best real estate for Irvine. The setting is perfect for nature walking with trails and native plants/trees surrounding us. The hike has many up hills and down hills trails, which provide plenty of challenge even for a fit person. We hike to the near peak of the trail and there we can see as far as L.A. skyscrapers to the north and way past Laguna beach top of the world to the south. All of the lots that were graded is now convert back to strawberry fields. This is to produce income as well as preserve the soil. There were lots of avocado trees that burned were able to salvage and cut tfrom the top because of the October 2007 Santiago Canyon fire. Many eucaleuptes trees were also damage.



One very interesting revelation from the host during the hike who consult for the Irvine Company on various projects including Orchard Hills is that the project will be delay at least until 2015 or even later when I asked. Most of residential planning is put on hold. Since this is one of the jewel and the last for Irvine, The Irvine Company will not develop until there will be clear demands for high end expensive lots.



Personally, I like the delay since I use Portola prkwy quite a bit and I like the openness feeling. It still seem like you are somewhat rural when traveling this road since there is still lots of strawberry fields and open lands. I still remember a decade ago when I drive and use Portola road the aroma of strawberry in the air so sweet its almost intoxicating, I can't get enough of it. At my house, even when I open my back windows, the strawberry fragrance would fill my family room, I miss that. Although, some of the graded lot now convert into strawberry fields, it not nearly as much as it use to be.



So there you have it. We need to wait quite along time before we can see any model homes popping up in Orchards Hill and for me I welcome it. And when it does make sure your wallet is deep because the prices of these homes will be very expensive.
 
[quote author="irvinebullhousing" date=1247454582]I took a docent led 2 hours hiking into Orchard Hills last week and I have to admit that this will be the last, best of the best real estate for Irvine. The setting is perfect for nature walking with trails and native plants/trees surrounding us. The hike has many up hills and down hills trails, which provide plenty of challenge even for a fit person. We hike to the near peak of the trail and there we can see as far as L.A. skyscrapers to the north and way past Laguna beach top of the world to the south. All of the lots that were graded is now convert back to strawberry fields. This is to produce income as well as preserve the soil. There were lots of avocado trees that burned were able to salvage and cut tfrom the top because of the October 2007 Santiago Canyon fire. Many eucaleuptes trees were also damage.



One very interesting revelation from the host during the hike who consult for the Irvine Company on various projects including Orchard Hills is that the project will be delay at least until 2015 or even later when I asked. Most of residential planning is put on hold. Since this is one of the jewel and the last for Irvine, The Irvine Company will not develop until there will be clear demands for high end expensive lots.



Personally, I like the delay since I use Portola prkwy quite a bit and I like the openness feeling. It still seem like you are somewhat rural when traveling this road since there is still lots of strawberry fields and open lands. I still remember a decade ago when I drive and use Portola road the aroma of strawberry in the air so sweet its almost intoxicating, I can't get enough of it. At my house, even when I open my back windows, the strawberry fragrance would fill my family room, I miss that. Although, some of the graded lot now convert into strawberry fields, it not nearly as much as it use to be.



So there you have it. We need to wait quite along time before we can see any model homes popping up in Orchards Hill and for me I welcome it. And when it does make sure your wallet is deep because the prices of these homes will be very expensive.</blockquote>


The time delay will also help erase the collective memory of the Great Fires of 2007. I am sure the views are beautiful and yes it is Irvine. But like I said back in 2007, why put one of your largest investments in the middle of a high risk fire zone. You will only get burned in the end. BK may like the Feng Shui since OH backs to a hill but I am not about to fight Mother Nature. SoCal continues to be in another drought season and that is unlikely to change anytime soon given global warming trends. It is only a matter of time before we get another major fire along OH.
 
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