OC High End Backlog

No_Such_Reality_IHB

No_Such_Reality_IHB

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Today, I decided to look at how the high end in OC is doing.



A quick check of Orange County on Redfin required me to push the minimum price all the way up to $3.5 Million before it returned less than <a href="http://www.redfin.com/search#uipt=3,2,1&status=1&min_price=3500000&v=4&lat=33.66949697279553&long;=-117.76519775390626&zoomLevel=9&region_id=332&region_type=5&market=socal">500 properties for sale</a>. A total of 442 listings are at over $3.5 Million.



Redfin also shows another 311 between <a href="http://www.redfin.com/search#uipt=3,2,1&status=1&min_price=2500000&max_price=3500000&v=4&lat=33.66949697279553&long;=-117.76519775390626&zoomLevel=9&region_id=332&region_type=5&market=socal">$2.5 Million and $3.5 Million for sale.</a>



Finally, another 235 units for sale show up between <a href="http://www.redfin.com/search#uipt=3,2,1&status=1&min_price=2000000&max_price=2500000&v=4&lat=33.66949697279553&long;=-117.76519775390626&zoomLevel=9&region_id=332&region_type=5&market=socal">$2.0 Million and $2.5 Million.</a>



Does anybody want to hazard a guess on how many months of supply are in the over $2 Million home market?
 
[quote author="No_Such_Reality" date=1228608300]Today, I decided to look at how the high end in OC is doing.



A quick check of Orange County on Redfin required me to push the minimum price all the way up to $3.5 Million before it returned less than <a href="http://www.redfin.com/search#uipt=3,2,1&status=1&min_price=3500000&v=4&lat=33.66949697279553&long;=-117.76519775390626&zoomLevel=9&region_id=332&region_type=5&market=socal">500 properties for sale</a>. A total of 442 listings are at over $3.5 Million.



Redfin also shows another 311 between <a href="http://www.redfin.com/search#uipt=3,2,1&status=1&min_price=2500000&max_price=3500000&v=4&lat=33.66949697279553&long;=-117.76519775390626&zoomLevel=9&region_id=332&region_type=5&market=socal">$2.5 Million and $3.5 Million for sale.</a>



Finally, another 235 units for sale show up between <a href="http://www.redfin.com/search#uipt=3,2,1&status=1&min_price=2000000&max_price=2500000&v=4&lat=33.66949697279553&long;=-117.76519775390626&zoomLevel=9&region_id=332&region_type=5&market=socal">$2.0 Million and $2.5 Million.</a>



Does anybody want to hazard a guess on how many months of supply are in the over $2 Million home market?</blockquote>


135 months?
 
Your data must be mistaken. Right now there are endless foreign buyers scouring all of our Californian Riviera looking to invest in some of the world's finest Tuscan estates!!!!!!!!
 
[quote author="OC Zed" date=1228646105]Your data must be mistaken. Right now there are endless foreign buyers scouring all of our Californian Riviera looking to invest in some of the world's finest Tuscan estates!!!!!!!!</blockquote>


After all, they aren't making anymore land. And did I mention the weather?
 
[quote author="OC Zed" date=1228646105]Right now there are endless foreign buyers scouring <strong>all of our Californian Riviera</strong> looking to invest in some of the world's finest Tuscan estates!!!!!!!!</blockquote>
Just Irvine... just Irvine.
 
[quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1228792277][quote author="OC Zed" date=1228646105]Right now there are endless foreign buyers scouring <strong>all of our Californian Riviera</strong> looking to invest in some of the world's finest Tuscan estates!!!!!!!!</blockquote>
Just Irvine... just Irvine.</blockquote>
+ Newport Beach + Newport Coast + Turtle Ridge + a few other cities
 
And you wonder why there is ZERO activity at Laguna Crossing ?



TIC has 2 web pages. One says 2010.



]<a href="http://www.villagesofirvine.com/At-Your-Service/Laguna-Crossing.aspx">http://www.villagesofirvine.com/At-Your-Service/Laguna-Crossing.aspx</a>



But wait. Make that 2011.



<a href="http://www.villagesofirvine.com/Village-Living/Laguna-Crossing.aspx">http://www.villagesofirvine.com/Village-Living/Laguna-Crossing.aspx</a>
 
[quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1228804822][quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1228792277][quote author="OC Zed" date=1228646105]Right now there are endless foreign buyers scouring <strong>all of our Californian Riviera</strong> looking to invest in some of the world's finest Tuscan estates!!!!!!!!</blockquote>
Just Irvine... just Irvine.</blockquote>
+ Newport Beach + Newport Coast + Turtle Ridge + a few other cities</blockquote>
No... just Irvine.



FCBs don't like those places... no 99 Ranch close by. You gotta have that duck hanging in the window.
 
[quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1228805548][quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1228804822][quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1228792277][quote author="OC Zed" date=1228646105]Right now there are endless foreign buyers scouring <strong>all of our Californian Riviera</strong> looking to invest in some of the world's finest Tuscan estates!!!!!!!!</blockquote>
Just Irvine... just Irvine.</blockquote>
+ Newport Beach + Newport Coast + Turtle Ridge + a few other cities</blockquote>
No... just Irvine.



FCBs don't like those places... no 99 Ranch close by. You gotta have that duck hanging in the window.</blockquote>
That just made my day! haha
 
[quote author="bltserv" date=1228805461]And you wonder why there is ZERO activity at Laguna Crossing ?



TIC has 2 web pages. One says 2010.



]<a href="http://www.villagesofirvine.com/At-Your-Service/Laguna-Crossing.aspx">http://www.villagesofirvine.com/At-Your-Service/Laguna-Crossing.aspx</a>



But wait. Make that 2011.



<a href="http://www.villagesofirvine.com/Village-Living/Laguna-Crossing.aspx">http://www.villagesofirvine.com/Village-Living/Laguna-Crossing.aspx</a></blockquote>
Before the end of the year, they'll have another website saying 2012. haha
 
[quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1228809048]Over/Under Pool on Laguna Crossing: I call Fall 2013!</blockquote>
I'll take the under (only because TIC will get anxious to generate some revenue before then on that slice of land).
 
I am staying bearish.

Will take the over. Spring 2014.

Like 5 years from now they start selling.



Especially if that HUGE supply number for $Mil Plus

Homes stays in the stratosphere for the foreseeable future.



Is it really 135 Months supply at current Sales Rates for OC ?

OMG.
 
[quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1228809557][quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1228809048]Over/Under Pool on Laguna Crossing: I call Fall 2013!</blockquote>
I'll take the under (only because TIC will get anxious to generate some revenue before then on that slice of land).</blockquote>
Apartments and retail shops don't count (aka The Orchard Hills Effect)!
 
[quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1228809048]Over/Under Pool on Laguna Crossing: I call Fall 2013!</blockquote>
Over... they need to finish...oops...start Orchad hill, then move on to Laguna Crossing...quite some time from now!
 
[quote author="bltserv" date=1228809895]I am staying bearish.

Will take the over. Spring 2014.

Like 5 years from now they start selling.



Especially if that HUGE supply number for $Mil Plus

Homes stays in the stratosphere for the foreseeable future.



Is it really 135 Months supply at current Sales Rates for OC ?

OMG.</blockquote>


I only said 135 because I have no idea and it just kinda appealed to me. No fact, just hyperbole. Sorry.
 
[quote author="No_Such_Reality" date=1228608300]Today, I decided to look at how the high end in OC is doing.



A quick check of Orange County on Redfin required me to push the minimum price all the way up to $3.5 Million before it returned less than <a href="http://www.redfin.com/search#uipt=3,2,1&status=1&min_price=3500000&v=4&lat=33.66949697279553&long;=-117.76519775390626&zoomLevel=9&region_id=332&region_type=5&market=socal">500 properties for sale</a>. A total of 442 listings are at over $3.5 Million.



Redfin also shows another 311 between <a href="http://www.redfin.com/search#uipt=3,2,1&status=1&min_price=2500000&max_price=3500000&v=4&lat=33.66949697279553&long;=-117.76519775390626&zoomLevel=9&region_id=332&region_type=5&market=socal">$2.5 Million and $3.5 Million for sale.</a>



Finally, another 235 units for sale show up between <a href="http://www.redfin.com/search#uipt=3,2,1&status=1&min_price=2000000&max_price=2500000&v=4&lat=33.66949697279553&long;=-117.76519775390626&zoomLevel=9&region_id=332&region_type=5&market=socal">$2.0 Million and $2.5 Million.</a>



Does anybody want to hazard a guess on how many months of supply are in the over $2 Million home market?</blockquote>


a quick search on <a href="http://www.redfin.com/search#uipt=1&sf;=&sold_within_months=12&status=1&min_price=2500000&v=4&lat=33.66758996285635&long;=-117.76483275565087&zoomLevel=9&region_id=332&region_type=5&market=socal">Redfin</a> showed 334 sales for listing above $2.5M in the last 12 months.



There has been another 200 sales between $2M and $2.5M.



So that's something like 24 months for the $2.5M+ and a little more than 12 months for the $2M - $2.5M range.



My only concern is...does redfin lists foreclosure sales to the bank?
 
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