OC Active/Pending Ratio Has Fallen Below 5

[effenheimer_IHB]

Lansner's post: http://blogs.ocregister.com/lansner/archives/2007/02/oc_homeowners_slow_to_put_for.html

The $1MM+ market continues to suffer but ratios have fallen for everything else.

Dead-cat bounce or recovery?

 

[biscuitninja_IHB]

Dead bounce, I don't see too many people having the financial wherewhithall to put forth that type of money. Especially with a VERY good possibility of instant depreciation....

There are people who want a home though and as the market goes down, they are going to probably jump into a place asap, reguardless of if they lose equity or not. It just depends....

Anybody who read the short term change versus the long term outlook is just fooling themselves. I forget what wallstreet calls this condition...

-bix

 

[bigmoneysalsa_IHB]

5 is not exactly a hot market. I've heard from one realtor that 3 is considered to be a pretty healthy market. This time last year it was a little over 3, and prices didn't rise much in 2006.

 

[effenheimer_IHB]

I'm inclined to agree. What's notable is the YoY change from 06 (in Lansner's chart). The year is beginning with higher inventory and lower sales compared to last year. Also, I think it'll take a month or two for the subprime contraction to filter into the RE market data.

Fyi, ABX-HE-BBB- 06-2 recovered by about $2 today.