Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market?

Seems like the interest rate will keep falling. This is a trap to capture many lower end buyers. Then there will be a recession possibly later this year or next year (I lean towards more around the presidential election time) and those who bought so high will regret. Of course, if they bought a home they could afford, then no biggie, right?

Again, these are my opinions and predictions. Take it or predict your own.



 
Sounds like a mini-clone of what happened in during the last crash where everyone thought prices would crater because interest rates would go up and the Fed surprised everyone (and I mean everyone because no one predicted rates to fall to the 3s) by bringing rates to record lows.
 
irvinehomeowner said:
Sounds like a mini-clone of what happened in during the last crash where everyone thought prices would crater because interest rates would go up and the Fed surprised everyone (and I mean everyone because no one predicted rates to fall to the 3s) by bringing rates to record lows.

THE CRASH, the mother of housing melt down in 08, WAS a once in a lifetime events. Now when a slow down occur, other triggers will kick-in to juice the systems and revive it. Buy when rate is high and rooms to negotiate  for price improvements, or wait for price to stagnate and rate drop and have no room to negotiate. It?s not an easy choice, so people just rent longer and wait. During the .com crash 2001, housing actually took off and gained momentum as people cashed out and dumping it into real estate.
 
Kenkoko said:
irvineband said:
This one seems alright though:

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/29-Bloomdale-92614/home/4696191?utm_source=ios_share&utm_medium=share&utm_campaign=copy_link&utm_nooverride=1&utm_content=link

This one looks nice. But the price is definitely too high. Looks like the seller is still looking for early 2018 prices. Look at this WB home that recently closed
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/145-W-Yale-Loop-92604/unit-1/home/5462921

Oct 2018 list price 1.15 mil
Feb 2019 sold price 876k.

Whooping 25% off the original list price.

If you are very firm on WB and SFR you could be waiting for awhile. WB resales are mostly condos.

Let us see how ?definitely too high? 29 Bloomdale really is since it just went pending. Again, the West Yale home is a poor comp.
 
irvinehomeowner said:
Are prices already starting to go back up? I think sales volume is down but pricing seems to have flattened out (for Irvine at least).
I actually think the opposite is happening.  Sales volume is picking back up, but prices are still dropping.  Im sure the lower and lower rates have helped sales.  Prices follow volume and the affect on prices is delayed.  Just my opinion.
 
Back on the IHB in 2007-2008 we talked about the armageddon that was going to happen to realestate. 
40% ~ 50% drops!! here it comes.....keep your ammo dry....blah blah.

The drop never happened as big as we all thought...and why?

Government interference.  Mortgage rates at 3% and lower.

If housing keeps going down, I expect our government to rescue housing again. QE infinity....no one thought the government would do such a thing, but they did.....How long can we kick the can?
 
zubs said:
Back on the IHB in 2007-2008 we talked about the armageddon that was going to happen to realestate. 
40% ~ 50% drops!! here it comes.....keep your ammo dry....blah blah.

Yeah people predicted a lot worse than 40% drops.  Eyephone...err, I mean Graphix used to say you'd buy SFRs in Irvine for what, 300k or what after the crash?

My current residenc sold at the peak 650 and I bought for 445 in 2009... so not a small drop.
 
ThirtySomethingWEquity said:
zubs said:
Back on the IHB in 2007-2008 we talked about the armageddon that was going to happen to realestate. 
40% ~ 50% drops!! here it comes.....keep your ammo dry....blah blah.

Yeah people predicted a lot worse than 40% drops.  Eyephone...err, I mean Graphix used to say you'd buy SFRs in Irvine for what, 300k or what after the crash?

My current residenc sold at the peak 650 and I bought for 445 in 2009... so not a small drop.

Are you saying eyephone = Graphix? Also since someone called me if I'm eyephone or meccos12 or BTB/YF. Are we all the same person? That means I'm pretty much running TI? Are you me? One person who is not doubted for having a burner account is IHO although I called him with B_T_B account once.

Yeah, this message was for entertainment purposes only.

Carry on.

 
Mety said:
Are you saying eyephone = Graphix? Also since someone called me if I'm eyephone or meccos12 or BTB/YF. Are we all the same person? That means I'm pretty much running TI? Are you me? One person who is not doubted for having a burner account is IHO although I called him with B_T_B account once.

Yeah, this message was for entertainment purposes only.

Carry on.

heh I don't actually think eyephone is graphix.  Eyephone's predictions, while maybe the most bearish on the forum, are actually reasonable.  Graphix was in nutter land.  I think Eyephone is wrong on his predictions but not insane.
 
Some properties, such as small condos in Irvine did experience large drops.  For example:
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/2215-Apricot-Dr-92618/unit-2215/home/5259697

If you look at the property history, this condo dropped to $200K in 2012.  This one dropped to $189K:
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/105-Lemon-Grv-92618/unit-264/home/5479490

I own condos in Oak Park and saw value drop from $440K to $230K from peak to bottom in previous cycle.


Be warned that these condos have high HOA fees.  Even if you buy at market low with a loan it's hard to break-even after all the fees and taxes are added.  My next investment property will most likely be outside of Irvine.

 
irvineband said:
Let us see how ?definitely too high? 29 Bloomdale really is since it just went pending. Again, the West Yale home is a poor comp.

I didn't post the west yale loop condo as a comp to the bloomdale house. One is a attached condo and one is a detached SFR.

I posted the west yale loop condo to echo what USC and others have observed in today's market listing. There are many delusional sellers chasing early 2018 prices. Some sellers realized the market has changed ( like the yale loop condo seller) and accepted the new reality even if that meant taking a 25% haircut off the original asking price.

I still think 29 Bloomdale was priced too high. If I were to make a bet, I would bet that it does not sell for above the lowered listing price. I guess we will find out soon enough. This house would easily fetched 1.2 mil or over had it been listed March 2018 instead.
 
Mety said:
ThirtySomethingWEquity said:
zubs said:
Back on the IHB in 2007-2008 we talked about the armageddon that was going to happen to realestate. 
40% ~ 50% drops!! here it comes.....keep your ammo dry....blah blah.

Yeah people predicted a lot worse than 40% drops.  Eyephone...err, I mean Graphix used to say you'd buy SFRs in Irvine for what, 300k or what after the crash?

My current residenc sold at the peak 650 and I bought for 445 in 2009... so not a small drop.

Are you saying eyephone = Graphix? Also since someone called me if I'm eyephone or meccos12 or BTB/YF. Are we all the same person? That means I'm pretty much running TI? Are you me? One person who is not doubted for having a burner account is IHO although I called him with B_T_B account once.

Yeah, this message was for entertainment purposes only.

Carry on.

I?ve never made an alt account. Why would I?

Panda was the OG, BTB did it so much almost any new account gets accused of being him.
 
Posted this in another thread, but this one is more relevant.

Zillow is now showing Irvine Market Temperature as "Cold" - Buyer's Market

Zillow also changed the 1-year forecast from positive to -0.2% for Irvine.
https://www.zillow.com/irvine-ca/home-values/

Trulia shows the number of sale has dropped significantly. Almost down to 2008-2009 level.

According to Trulia, sale prices for 4 bedroom homes took the biggest hit. Dropping 7.4% yoy (Jan - April)
https://www.trulia.com/real_estate/Irvine-California/market-trends/

 
Actually I think someone on TI relies on Zillow?s temperature. Lol
(Not me of course) ;)

Kenkoko said:
Posted this in another thread, but this one is more relevant.

Zillow is now showing Irvine Market Temperature as "Cold" - Buyer's Market

Zillow also changed the 1-year forecast from positive to -0.2% for Irvine.
https://www.zillow.com/irvine-ca/home-values/

Trulia shows the number of sale has dropped significantly. Almost down to 2008-2009 level.

According to Trulia, sale prices for 4 bedroom homes took the biggest hit. Dropping 7.4% yoy (Jan - April)
https://www.trulia.com/real_estate/Irvine-California/market-trends/
 
Kenkoko said:
Posted this in another thread, but this one is more relevant.

Zillow is now showing Irvine Market Temperature as "Cold" - Buyer's Market

Zillow also changed the 1-year forecast from positive to -0.2% for Irvine.
https://www.zillow.com/irvine-ca/home-values/

Trulia shows the number of sale has dropped significantly. Almost down to 2008-2009 level.

According to Trulia, sale prices for 4 bedroom homes took the biggest hit. Dropping 7.4% yoy (Jan - April)
https://www.trulia.com/real_estate/Irvine-California/market-trends/

You know who is also "neutral"/"cool"/"cold"?

Newport Beach: https://www.zillow.com/newport-beach-ca/home-values/

Pasadena: https://www.zillow.com/pasadena-ca/home-values/

Arcadia: https://www.zillow.com/arcadia-ca/home-values/

San Marino: https://www.zillow.com/san-marino-ca/home-values/

Palo Alto: https://www.zillow.com/palo-alto-ca/home-values/
 
Kenkoko said:
According to Trulia, sale prices for 4 bedroom homes took the biggest hit. Dropping 7.4% yoy (Jan - April)

It's a good thing I have a 5 bedroom house, those are probably immune :)
 
aquabliss said:
Kenkoko said:
According to Trulia, sale prices for 4 bedroom homes took the biggest hit. Dropping 7.4% yoy (Jan - April)

It's a good thing I have a 5 bedroom house, those are probably immune :)

Only in Irvine... and especially immune if it has a 3CWG (statistically proven by the IHB!).
 
Great article in Barrons:You Still Might Be Able to Afford a House in San Francisco

Just a little snipit.

?Taking a longer view from before the financial crisis, the biggest housing cost increases between 2000 and 2017 were in Miami, Los Angeles, and San Diego (about 80%) while the smallest increases were in Cleveland, Detroit, Atlanta, and Cincinnati (about 33%). In the middle were Pittsburgh, Denver, and Philadelphia.

These numbers, of course, offer zero information about the change in affordability in each city over these periods, much less the change in relative affordability between cities. That requires comparing changes in average housing costs with changes in average spending power.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis provides estimates of household incomes for every metro area of the U.S. The standard definition of personal income, however, includes the imputed income homeowners ?earn? by not having to rent. The biggest source of variation in this ?income stream? is the long descent in mortgage interest rates, which is why ?rental income of persons? has ballooned from 0.5% of total personal income in 1990 to 1.5% in 2007 to more than 4% since 2014. All this makes the standard income numbers invalid for calculating housing affordability.?

?Going further back to when the data begin in 2001, average employee compensation has increased the most in the Bay Area (65%) and in Seattle (60%), while increasing the least in Detroit (26%), Miami (29%), and Atlanta (32%).?
 
March was definitely a very interesting month. Sales came in at 196 homes in the month of March 2019 or 40% higher than February 2019 but still 21% lower than March 2018.  The medium price per SF from a year-over-year basis decreased slightly by 0.4%. These March closings were mostly escrows that opened in January and February when the market seemed to have stabilized due to interest rates coming down starting in mid January. The number of active listings at the end of March increased by 68 homes from the end of February as we are entering the Spring selling season. The increase in sales more than counteracted the increase in inventory which caused the # of months of inventory to decrease to 4.17 months in March versus 5.35 months in February. This would put the Irvine market as a neutral market, but when you look at the inventory in the sub $1m market we are in a weak seller's market while the over $1m is in a buyer's market. Also, Days On Market (DOM) from from 36 days in February to 27 days in March.

I continued to see fairly strong demand in the sub $800k market with multiple offer situations and even slight price increases. One of my clients bought a Woodbury condo for $630k and a recent model match condo closed for $642k (listed at $628k). I've also had a few $1m+ buyers come off the side lines in March too and of all things one of them got outbid by a FCB buyer on a Baker Ranch home.  haha  My listings also tell me that homes that are priced right and are turnkey see attract a lot of buyers, the lower the price point the more buyer traffic I'm getting.  New home builders continue to be flexible on pricing and credits, especially on quicker move-in homes. I believe that the new home shadow inventory is having a significant impact on the higher end of the market. There are still a lot of stubborn/dreamer sellers out there, especially in the higher end of the market, who don't understand that the market has adjusted lower.

From an interest rate perspective, interest rates continued to bleed lower in March with a low point hit near the end of March where the 30-year rate touched 3.75% and the 7-year ARM rate hit 2.75%. Rates have blipped up a bit since then but we are still under 3% on the 30-year fixed and around 3% on the 7-ARM. It's fairly clear now that the these lower rates have stabilized the real estate market in general and that along with the stock market grinding to all-time highs and a good job market with little worry of a recession have given more buyers confidence to get back to looking at buying homes. However, that doesn't mean that buyers aren't both cautious and picky because I know my buyers are.

Overall I think the market feels very balanced which is both good for buyers and sellers.
 

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