O.C. housing gets ?riskiest? ranking

trrenter_IHB

trrenter_IHB

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<a href="http://lansner.freedomblogging.com/2009/11/12/oc-housing-in-riskiest-condition/43527/">O.C. housing gets ?riskiest? ranking</a>



<strong>Risk? 99.9% chance of home prices falling in next two years. That score tied Orange County with eight other markets for the the crown of ?nation?s riskiest!? </strong>
 
I wonder how they got the 99.9% chance of a further price fall in the OC. That seems rather certain. Also, they have the IE as also having a 99.9% chance of further reductions. Considering the IE has already fallen by massive amounts (houses 50%, 60%, 70% off peak prices are not uncommon), that seems to be really going out on a limb.



I'm not saying that further reductions aren't possible, or maybe even likely. But 99.9%? Nothing is 99.9% sure.
 
[quote author="Geotpf" date=1258077078]I wonder how they got the 99.9% chance of a further price fall in the OC. That seems rather certain. Also, they have the IE as also having a 99.9% chance of further reductions. Considering the IE has already fallen by massive amounts (houses 50%, 60%, 70% off peak prices are not uncommon), that seems to be really going out on a limb.



I'm not saying that further reductions aren't possible, or maybe even likely. <strong>But 99.9%? Nothing is 99.9% sure</strong>.</blockquote>


There are plenty of things that carry a 99.9% chance in this world.



If you have a 1 in a thousand chance of winning that means you have a 99.9% chance of losing.
 
[quote author="trrenter" date=1258078359][quote author="Geotpf" date=1258077078]I wonder how they got the 99.9% chance of a further price fall in the OC. That seems rather certain. Also, they have the IE as also having a 99.9% chance of further reductions. Considering the IE has already fallen by massive amounts (houses 50%, 60%, 70% off peak prices are not uncommon), that seems to be really going out on a limb.



I'm not saying that further reductions aren't possible, or maybe even likely. <strong>But 99.9%? Nothing is 99.9% sure</strong>.</blockquote>


There are plenty of things that carry a 99.9% chance in this world.



If you have a 1 in a thousand chance of winning that means you have a 99.9% chance of losing.</blockquote>


Is anyone willing to give me those odds? I've got a 5 in my pocket.
 
[quote author="RoLar_USC" date=1258078690][quote author="trrenter" date=1258078359][quote author="Geotpf" date=1258077078]I wonder how they got the 99.9% chance of a further price fall in the OC. That seems rather certain. Also, they have the IE as also having a 99.9% chance of further reductions. Considering the IE has already fallen by massive amounts (houses 50%, 60%, 70% off peak prices are not uncommon), that seems to be really going out on a limb.



I'm not saying that further reductions aren't possible, or maybe even likely. <strong>But 99.9%? Nothing is 99.9% sure</strong>.</blockquote>


There are plenty of things that carry a 99.9% chance in this world.



If you have a 1 in a thousand chance of winning that means you have a 99.9% chance of losing.</blockquote>


Is anyone willing to give me those odds? I've got a 5 in my pocket.</blockquote>


I'll give you even money. Since you believe prices are stable/rising, and are currently renting, this would be a good way to particpate in the housing market upside. Seriously. I can't find many economic means of shorting O.C. housing, and this would be extremely helpful...
 
[quote author="CapitalismWorks" date=1258079547][quote author="RoLar_USC" date=1258078690][quote author="trrenter" date=1258078359][quote author="Geotpf" date=1258077078]I wonder how they got the 99.9% chance of a further price fall in the OC. That seems rather certain. Also, they have the IE as also having a 99.9% chance of further reductions. Considering the IE has already fallen by massive amounts (houses 50%, 60%, 70% off peak prices are not uncommon), that seems to be really going out on a limb.



I'm not saying that further reductions aren't possible, or maybe even likely. <strong>But 99.9%? Nothing is 99.9% sure</strong>.</blockquote>


There are plenty of things that carry a 99.9% chance in this world.



If you have a 1 in a thousand chance of winning that means you have a 99.9% chance of losing.</blockquote>


Is anyone willing to give me those odds? I've got a 5 in my pocket.</blockquote>


I'll give you even money. Since you believe prices are stable/rising, and are currently renting, this would be a good way to particpate in the housing market upside. Seriously. I can't find many economic means of shorting O.C. housing, and this would be extremely helpful...</blockquote>


Why take even money, when I find people posting everyday stating they know 99.9% certainty that the market will go down and I'm not just talking this article. Would I walk into a sports book and take worse odds than they're offering because I'm more sure of my opinion than the general populace?
 
[quote author="Geotpf" date=1258077078]I wonder how they got the 99.9% chance of a further price fall in the OC. That seems rather certain. Also, they have the IE as also having a 99.9% chance of further reductions. Considering the IE has already fallen by massive amounts (houses 50%, 60%, 70% off peak prices are not uncommon), that seems to be really going out on a limb.



I'm not saying that further reductions aren't possible, or maybe even likely. But 99.9%? Nothing is 99.9% sure.</blockquote>


You are right. It is not 99.9% sure. It is more like 99.99% sure.
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1258083856][quote author="Geotpf" date=1258077078]I wonder how they got the 99.9% chance of a further price fall in the OC. That seems rather certain. Also, they have the IE as also having a 99.9% chance of further reductions. Considering the IE has already fallen by massive amounts (houses 50%, 60%, 70% off peak prices are not uncommon), that seems to be really going out on a limb.



I'm not saying that further reductions aren't possible, or maybe even likely. But 99.9%? Nothing is 99.9% sure.</blockquote>


You are right. It is not 99.9% sure. It is more like 99.99% sure.</blockquote>


Clever.
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1258083856][quote author="Geotpf" date=1258077078]I wonder how they got the 99.9% chance of a further price fall in the OC. That seems rather certain. Also, they have the IE as also having a 99.9% chance of further reductions. Considering the IE has already fallen by massive amounts (houses 50%, 60%, 70% off peak prices are not uncommon), that seems to be really going out on a limb.



I'm not saying that further reductions aren't possible, or maybe even likely. But 99.9%? Nothing is 99.9% sure.</blockquote>


You are right. It is not 99.9% sure. It is more like 99.99% sure.</blockquote>


So you're sayin' there's a chance...



<img src="http://images.eonline.com/eol_images/Entire_Site/20071001/285.daniels.carrey.dumb.100107.jpg" alt="" />
 
[quote author="IrvineRealtor" date=1258084327][quote author="awgee" date=1258083856][quote author="Geotpf" date=1258077078]I wonder how they got the 99.9% chance of a further price fall in the OC. That seems rather certain. Also, they have the IE as also having a 99.9% chance of further reductions. Considering the IE has already fallen by massive amounts (houses 50%, 60%, 70% off peak prices are not uncommon), that seems to be really going out on a limb.



I'm not saying that further reductions aren't possible, or maybe even likely. But 99.9%? Nothing is 99.9% sure.</blockquote>


You are right. It is not 99.9% sure. It is more like 99.99% sure.</blockquote>


So you're sayin' there's a chance...



<img src="http://images.eonline.com/eol_images/Entire_Site/20071001/285.daniels.carrey.dumb.100107.jpg" alt="" /></blockquote>


For you, anything.
 
If you are truly interested in how they came to the conclusion here is the last report they ran that also explains how they come to the conclusion. (this is not the one referenced in the article but it explains the math)



<a href="http://stevenwevodau.com/?tag=pmi-group-inc">PMI Winter 2009 Risk Index Indicates Broader Risk of Home Price Declines</a>



<blockquote>The Risk Index uses economic, housing, and mortgage market factors (including home price appreciation, employment, affordability, excess housing supply, interest rates, and foreclosure activity) to determine these probabilities. Among the nation?s 50 largest MSAs, 23 had a risk score exceeding 50, indicating a greater than 50 percent chance of prices being lower in those markets in 2 years</blockquote>
 
[quote author="RoLar_USC" date=1258078690][quote author="trrenter" date=1258078359][quote author="Geotpf" date=1258077078]I wonder how they got the 99.9% chance of a further price fall in the OC. That seems rather certain. Also, they have the IE as also having a 99.9% chance of further reductions. Considering the IE has already fallen by massive amounts (houses 50%, 60%, 70% off peak prices are not uncommon), that seems to be really going out on a limb.



I'm not saying that further reductions aren't possible, or maybe even likely. <strong>But 99.9%? Nothing is 99.9% sure</strong>.</blockquote>


There are plenty of things that carry a 99.9% chance in this world.



If you have a 1 in a thousand chance of winning that means you have a 99.9% chance of losing.</blockquote>


Is anyone willing to give me those odds? I've got a 5 in my pocket.</blockquote>


Exactly. I'll put down ten bucks each on all of the 99.9%ers, if I get ten grand if it goes the other way.
 
[quote author="RoLar_USC" date=1258083592][quote author="CapitalismWorks" date=1258079547][quote author="RoLar_USC" date=1258078690][quote author="trrenter" date=1258078359][quote author="Geotpf" date=1258077078]I wonder how they got the 99.9% chance of a further price fall in the OC. That seems rather certain. Also, they have the IE as also having a 99.9% chance of further reductions. Considering the IE has already fallen by massive amounts (houses 50%, 60%, 70% off peak prices are not uncommon), that seems to be really going out on a limb.



I'm not saying that further reductions aren't possible, or maybe even likely. <strong>But 99.9%? Nothing is 99.9% sure</strong>.</blockquote>


There are plenty of things that carry a 99.9% chance in this world.



If you have a 1 in a thousand chance of winning that means you have a 99.9% chance of losing.</blockquote>


Is anyone willing to give me those odds? I've got a 5 in my pocket.</blockquote>


I'll give you even money. Since you believe prices are stable/rising, and are currently renting, this would be a good way to particpate in the housing market upside. Seriously. I can't find many economic means of shorting O.C. housing, and this would be extremely helpful...</blockquote>


Why take even money, when I find people posting everyday stating they know 99.9% certainty that the market will go down and I'm not just talking this article. Would I walk into a sports book and take worse odds than they're offering because I'm more sure of my opinion than the general populace?</blockquote>


Obviously a bit of hyberbole, since no one is actually offering 10000 to 1 odds. However, I am interested in just how confident you are of the current market. What kind of odds would you be willing to take? I'll bet we can find a few counterparties on this board.



Let's price this thing!
 
<blockquote>Gambling is illegal at Bushwood sir, and I never slice. </blockquote>


<img src="http://cm1.theinsider.com/thumbnail/400/300/cm1.theinsider.com/media/0/554/69/caddyshack.jpg" alt="" />
 
What's the measurement of prices? Median, Case-Schiller etc. ? Adjusted, Non-Adjusted? Overall market?



Obviously I would need to stand by my opinions, so I wouldn't expect anything more than 50/50.
 
[quote author="RoLar_USC" date=1258101108]What's the measurement of prices? Median, Case-Schiller etc. ? Adjusted, Non-Adjusted? Overall market?



Obviously I would need to stand by my opinions, so I wouldn't expect anything more than 50/50.</blockquote>


Good questions. Others can weigh in. I am hoping for OC, however there is no published Case Schiller. Is anyone familiar with OC related home price indices?
 
[quote author="RoLar_USC" date=1258101108]What's the measurement of prices? Median, Case-Schiller etc. ? Adjusted, Non-Adjusted? Overall market?



Obviously I would need to stand by my opinions, so I wouldn't expect anything more than 50/50.</blockquote>


Whatever measure you want. And I will bet you a Starbucks grande mocha or whatever beverage you prefer.
 
There's a 99.9999% chance that you'll be hurt in the next year.



What kind of hurt?



- skin scratch?

- chipped nail?

- sprained ankle?

- broken arm?

- lose a limb?

- etc?



WHAT????



[quote author="trrenter" date=1258074722]<a href="http://lansner.freedomblogging.com/2009/11/12/oc-housing-in-riskiest-condition/43527/">O.C. housing gets ?riskiest? ranking</a>



<strong>Risk? 99.9% chance of home prices falling in next two years. That score tied Orange County with eight other markets for the the crown of ?nation?s riskiest!? </strong></blockquote>
 
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