November 2023 Irvine Housing Market Update

[usctrojancpa]

Below I've attached the November 2023 data for Irvine. Sales ticked up to almost as high as what we've seen in the summer time to 189 homes or almost 55% higher than November 2022. Inventory levels continued to decrease and were approximately 42% lower than this time last year, closing in on 1-month worth of inventory. New listing inventory continued to be lower than what we saw last year. The interesting part of the data was that the median price per SF decreased about 2% from October 2023 but I think that has to do that more attached condos sold in the month versus SFR homes but the median price per SF still increased almost 14% year-over-year.

 

[usctrojancpa]

Below are 5-year charts for new listings, active listings on the market, total closings, and median price per square foot.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

That leap from 2018 to 2023 is ridiculous.

Those Irvine prices got "destroyed"!

 

[CalBears96]

That leap from 2018 to 2023 is ridiculous.

Those Irvine prices got "destroyed"!

The pain Irvine homeowners must have felt.

 

[usctrojancpa]

That leap from 2018 to 2023 is ridiculous.

Those Irvine prices got "destroyed"!

It's not even from 2018 but from late 2020.

 

[usctrojancpa]

The pain Irvine homeowners must have felt.

It's the home buyers that are feeling the pain.

 

[Liar Loan]

It's not even from 2018 but from late 2020.

Very true.. Buying in 2018 was a fool's game.

 

[Liar Loan]

That leap from 2018 to 2023 is ridiculous.

Those Irvine prices got "destroyed"!

Quite astute of you to observe this.

Prices have risen 2.7% since the May 2021 peak (according to this data set) and inflation has obliterated the purchasing power of the dollar by 15% over that same time. Cash buyers are toast. @usctrojancpa's prediction that Irvine would outperform inflation has not panned out.

I know you guys hate adjusting for inflation, but it's necessary when calculating MaxROI. Put simply, a 6-month CD has outperformed Irvine.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Why are you using May 2021 peak when my post referred to 2018 (back when you were telling everyone not to buy)?

Because it fits your moving goalposts better right?

And now you are throwing inflation into the mix like back when you were saying prices lag inventory (and then those prices never went down anyways).

What's your next excuse?

Just admit you were wrong. No matter how you try to illustrate that prices dropped in 2020 or 2022, you were hoping they would keep dropping esp with the high interest rates... and they didn't. Now you have nothing to cling on to... maybe UFOs or FBI informants for the next round?

 

[TestingIrvine]

Quite astute of you to observe this.

Prices have risen 2.7% since the May 2021 peak (according to this data set) and inflation has obliterated the purchasing power of the dollar by 15% over that same time. Cash buyers are toast. @usctrojancpa's prediction that Irvine would outperform inflation has not panned out.

I know you guys hate adjusting for inflation, but it's necessary when calculating MaxROI. Put simply, a 6-month CD has outperformed Irvine.

According to Martin’s graph May 2021 median PSF was about $560.
Currently it is $750.

Where did you get 2.7%?

 

[usctrojancpa]

According to Martin’s graph May 2021 median PSF was about $560.
Currently it is $750.

Where did you get 2.7%?

I think he meant to say May 2022 instead of May 2021. All I know is that Irvine prices are up about 13% from the end of 2022 which has outperformed inflation as well as Orange County (prices have increased just under 11% during that time).

 

[Danimal]

I have never seen supply this tight. There is basically no active sfh w/o contract in Woodbury, Cypress, Eastwood. There is only one in Stonegate with bad location next to portola street. Buckle up gentlemen. We’re in for another wild ride on Irvine real estate.

 

[TestingIrvine]

I think he meant to say May 2022 instead of May 2021. All I know is that Irvine prices are up about 13% from the end of 2022 which has outperformed inflation as well as Orange County (prices have increased just under 11% during that time).

If that is the logic, it’s closer to 7%. But even if it’s 2.7%, that reasoning that is the most hilarious thing I have ever heard.

This isn’t trading stocks man.

 

[Liar Loan]

If that is the logic, it’s closer to 7%. But even if it’s 2.7%, that reasoning that is the most hilarious thing I have ever heard.

This isn’t trading stocks man.

Indeed I meant May 2022. The posted data set doesn't go back to May 2021.

May 2022 ~ $729
Nov 2023 ~ $749

I know every post is the most hilarious thing ever to you, but if buyers are losing money it's important to account for that. Especially because my prediction was that this downturn would be a mix between the early 80's and early 90's downturns, which you also found hilarious. The early 80's stayed flat for five years while the purchasing power of a dollar went down by 35%, so it was a loss in what economists call REAL terms.

Buying in the early 80's as @Ready2Downsize did, was actually a terrible idea. Borrowing money at 13% for an asset that stays flat is not financially savvy.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

This coming from the guy who said don't buy from 2018 on and then went and bought himself.

Not only was he wrong... he saw he was wrong so he went out and bought.

That is quite hilarious.

 

[Liar Loan]

This coming from the guy who said don't buy from 2018 on and then went and bought himself.

Not only was he wrong... he saw he was wrong so he went out and bought.

That is quite hilarious.

Yeah, the 60% gain (200% leveraged) has me laughing all the way to the bank.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Yeah, the 60% gain (200% leveraged) has me laughing all the way to the bank.

So you admit you were wrong... and also are now admitting you profited from ignoring your own advice.

Another one for the record books.

 

[usctrojancpa]

So you admit you were wrong... and also are now admitting you profited from ignoring your own advice.

Another one for the record books.

We all know that buying a primary is a big financial decision but for most people it is not just a pure numbers gain plus trying to time the market when you are looking for a very specific property in certain locations can be challenging (I would be the extreme case of that). I submitted offers on 3 homes in over 2 years and got the 3rd home. I could personally care less what the value of my home was 6 months or today or what it will be next year because I'm not selling it. And since that time that I bought my home, there hasn't been a home as good or better that hit the market so I know I made the right decision for me.

 

[Liar Loan]

So you admit you were wrong... and also are now admitting you profited from ignoring your own advice.

Another one for the record books.

We all know that if I had not purchased, you would also be trying to rub that in my face. And yet to your chagrin, I timed things perfectly.

We all know that buying a primary is a big financial decision but for most people it is not just a pure numbers gain plus trying to time the market when you are looking for a very specific property in certain locations can be challenging (I would be the extreme case of that). I submitted offers on 3 homes in over 2 years and got the 3rd home. I could personally care less what the value of my home was 6 months or today or what it will be next year because I'm not selling it. And since that time that I bought my home, there hasn't been a home as good or better that hit the market so I know I made the right decision for me.

If it's a primary residence, you aren't going to buy just based on the numbers, but for most people their home also has an investment component. For those that aren't entrepreneurial and maybe don't even own stocks, their home is the only chance to earn an investment-like return.

Just think back to all the parties in 2005 where all anybody could talk about was how much their homes were going up in value. Most people do pay attention when a neighbor sells for a new record amount.

 

[usctrojancpa]

We all know that if I had not purchased, you would also be trying to rub that in my face. And yet to your chagrin, I timed things perfectly.


If it's a primary residence, you aren't going to buy just based on the numbers, but for most people their home also has an investment component. For those that aren't entrepreneurial and maybe don't even own stocks, their home is the only chance to earn an investment-like return.

Just think back to all the parties in 2005 where all anybody could talk about was how much their homes were going up in value. Most people do pay attention when a neighbor sells for a new record amount.

See that's the thing, a primary residence should not be mainly looked at as an investment....it's a commodity/necessity first and foremost because we all need a place to live. Sure when home prices increases it makes people feel good and some will begin to use their home as an ATM but ultimately it's a place to live. Finances will be a major determinate of where and what kind of home a buyer may be able to purchase but most all of my buyers purchase homes based upon their specific needs.