Northpark - Campanile

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Fraychielle_IHB

New member
Village: Northpark square

Tract: Campanile (68 single family homes) in the City of Irvine

Builder: California Pacific Homeshttp://www.johnlainghomes.com/

Schools: Tustin School District (TUSD): Hicks elementary school, Pioneer Middle School, Beckman High School

Tax Rate: The base property tax rate is 1.03% and the Mello Roos/Special Assessments are $296/month

HOA Dues: $65.



Plans:

Residence 1, 1949 sf 3b / 3.5ba USED TO BE 925735 (475/sf) - currently sold out

Residence 2, 2123 sf 3b + parlor / 2.5ba USED TO BE 992180 (467/sf) - now $921217 (434/sf)

Residence 3, 2315 sf 4b + loft / 3 ba USED TO BE 1004310 (434 / sf) - NOW $905,844 (391/sf)

Residence 4, 2460 sf 4b + study / 2.5ba USED TO BE 1050090 (428/sf) - NOW $931,689 (379/sf)

This is from their pricing list dated 1/13/2007

They are on phase 3 of 4, the last phase goes on sale perhaps in 1-2 months for movein July / August

The homes are primarily oriented in a North-South manner; they're fairly close together so in the afternoon the interior lighting seems to be a bit dim. There is a park just up the street on Masterson and Rosenblum.

Phase 5B (Pricing as of 5/19/2007)

Plan 1 - Sold Out

Plan 2 - Sold Out

Plan 3 - $899,000

Plan 4 - $919,000

Not as low as they were at fiscal year end 2006, but lower than when they were first open.

Pricing effective 7/20/2007

Plan 1 - Sold Out

Plan 2 - Sold Out

Plan 3 - $927,480

Plan 4 - $951,690

Pricing effective 10/9/07

Residence 1 - Temp Sold Out

Residence 2 - Model closed (no pricing)

Residence 3 - From $887,480

Residence 4 - From $910,650

Nothing will be ready for year end, sounds like the next move ins will be in March. I got an inventory list for Plan 3 (the one we like) -- shows four available, all with pre-selected options, $877k - $887k.
 
Cool! Thanks for the info! Mello Roos and HOA dues don't seem too bad (relatively speaking). Wasn't a school or something supposed to be built on this site originally?
 
Is it me, but are the exterior of these homes the most ugly things you've ever seen? These homes are still way overpriced for what you get. Also it seems the construction and materials look pretty cheap. Some of the models already started to feel 'worn down' and old. For >$900k, I would think they would have done a better job.
 
yes i agree, the homes are on the unattractive side, but i do like the open floor plans...space very usuable (unlike the compartmentalized rooms some builders like to build). also, campanile seems like one of the last "single family residence" developments in irvine. everything in this size and price range is a detached condo with basically a side alley that they like to call a yard. and on top of that, you're also paying more than double the HOA fees. AND i just recently found out that the sub association fee for detached condos does not include hazard insurance (like those for attached condos) so not only are you getting slammed with high HOA fees, you also have to pay all the maintenance costs of owning a detached home. so what i don't get is why people still BUY these detached condos! do they not work out the numbers first? because based on what campanile is selling for, it is a steal compared to stonetree, bougainvillea, etc.
 
sapporo : "so what i don't get is why people still BUY these detached condos! do they not work out the numbers first?"

Well put indeed! What I don't get is how so many people seem to be able to "afford" these white elephants? The rent vs. buy decision model is clearly in favor of renting. The resale market is soft at best (I mean it as a compliment ).

Where's my disconnect? What did I miss?

Here's the Rent vs. Buy analysis on a $1 million property from the link above...

Rent versus Buy Calculator

This form allows you to compare renting versus buying by entering how much you want to spend a month and how much down you would put into your house.



Mortgage Analysis

With your monthly payment of 5,048.88 and a 30 Year Loan at 6.25 %

You will have a loan of $ 819,999.83

Adding your Downpayment of $ 180,000.00 gives a total house value of $ 999,999.83

After 30 Years you will own a $ 2,427,262.06 house and have saved 279,327.15 in Income Taxes on Interest Payments of $ 997,596.97

Renting Analysis

Instead we take your downpayment and let it grow

After 30 years your $ 180,000.00 has increased to $ 3,598,660.24

(10.5% annual investment return)

"Hello? Is there anybody in there? Just nod if you can hear me... Is there anyone home?" (Pink Floyd)
 
10.5% annual investment return is awfully generous. I wouldn't put money intended for a down payment in stocks.

How about 5.05% risk free?

It would be nice if the calculator also included property tax, though it too is also tax deductible.
 
Fraychielle "10.5% annual investment return is awfully generous. I wouldn't put money intended for a down payment in stocks. How about 5.05% risk free?"

I discounted the historical S&P return (100% stocks) by several points to arrive at 10.5% to allow for a more "risk-balanced" investment approach with a basket of stocks and bonds. A 5.05% risk-free return is not guaranteed either. Interest rates fluctuate and barely keep you above inflation. Any honest financial planner will tell you that stocks do better over time than cash.

Your point on the property tax deduction is well taken. However, this is not an added expense that a renter would have.

Consider this: I did not include the opportunity cost savings of renting. The most tangible element of this is as follows: A million dollar 4 br/3ba home is renting for $3,000 or so in Irvine. Just the P&I alone on a $820k mortgage is over $5,000. The additional savings of $2000+ per month alone compunded over 30 years at 10.5% would yield around $4.6 million. (I am not counting the savings on not paying property taxes/mello roos/HOA etc. so I will assume rents will go up each year instead and call it even.)

For most people, these are huge sums of money, and the earlier the better that you and others reading this forum realize what a ginormous money pit you will be throwing your hard earned cash into each month on this "investment."

What part of the math is not clear?

If you buy a $1 million "home" you will end up with $2.4 million worth property after 30 years.

If you rent a 4 br home, and invest your cost difference and savings in a risk-balanced basket of stocks and bonds, you will end up with $3.6 million from your down payment alone PLUS $4.6 million from the monthly savings over the mortgage vs. rent.

That is a $8.2 million cash balance vs. $2.4 million property!!! Nearly $6 million more. Not a measly 1 or 2 mill, a whole frickin' 6 mill! What part of this math is not clear?

 
Are these all gone (from the initial phase sales)? I was wondering if there were still other phases, (and possible reductions)... or if I should be on the look out for flippers from the initial phases.
 
Sapporo:

In regards to the detached condo vs. SFR, we found that the latest pricing takes the higher HOA into account.

For instance, we looked at both Campanile and Stonetree, and came up with the following numbers:

Base price:

Stonetree Plan 3: $857,880 @ 2,268 sq. ft

Campanile Plan 3: $905,844 @ 2,315 sq. ft

Monthly PITI (assume 0.65% Mello-roos for STM, $296 for Campanile, 6.375% interest, 20% down, 0.25% home insurance):

Stonetree: $5,092

Campanile: $5,290

HOA Fees:

Stonetree: $230

Campanile: $65



Total payment:

Stonetree: $5,322

Campanile: $5,355

In other words, it kinda washed out in the end, with the lower pricing on the Stonetree models. When you consider that we got another half bath with STM, Woodbury is a pretty nice village to live in, and we'll be in the Irvine School District, the balance tipped slightly in favor of STM.

Of course, I'm not implying that this decision would be the same for everyone, but I just wanted to show that there is a reason some choose detached condos...

-OCR
 
OCR -

Are there any incentives currently with Stonetree? I really liked model 3 (although I did not like the detached condo thing so much)... and I agree, Woodbury is a wonderful community - my only worry is the seemingly high number of rental compex units... all with commons access... makes me worried that it may dillute the "family" atmosphere of the community with too many single 20-somethings (don't get me wrong, I was there not long ago).
 
GrewUpInIrvine:

$10K if you use their financing. I see your point with the apartments, but I think Woodbury will end up very similar to Woodbridge, which also has a high level of condos and apartments...

But I suppose this is a conversation for the Woodbury thread...

-OCR
 
grewupinirvine,

I do believe the Commons are accessible to apt. dwellers. But there amenities that only residents have access to via an electronic key.
 
I dropped by today and picked up a pricesheet. It's got an effective date of 7/20/07, which is pretty odd since it means they haven't updated the price for a while now. It still shows Plans 1 and 2 as sold but, but the prices for the other two plans are higher now. Any ideas why that might be?

Plan 3 - $927,480

Plan 4 - $951,690
 
Stopped in here today. Still on the same July 20 price sheet, with same prices as noted above. Asked what they had left to go -- she said the only construction left would be over the parking lot of the models, but she had "no idea when we will be done here". Once 2009 rolls around and I am (hopefully) ready to buy, I think I may go back here -- maybe she will still be sitting there. I just hope they get around to updating their price sheet by then.
 
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