Nobel Laureate is a renter, and thinks home prices will come down

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<a href="http://nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/economics/laureates/2002/smith-autobio.html">Dr. Vernon Smith</a> recently joined Chapman University, to add, and expand the economics program. The OCR did a Q&A with Dr. Smith.





<p>Nobel economist Vernon Smith has made a career out of studying how people buy and sell commodities. How does he behave?</p>

<p>Q. You study other people's buying and selling behavior. But what kind of consumer are you?</p>

<p>A. I had programmed into me ever since I was a child (in the Great Depression) to buy cheaper and save money. My dad was a machinist, and we lived on a farm. When I was a graduate student at Harvard, I would fix my own car.</p>

<p>Q. How thrifty are you?</p>

<p>A. I'm a bargain shopper within limits. We watch when we're driving for cheap gas, but we don't make a special trip, because that costs gas to get there. Sometimes when we're traveling and we see cheap gas, we'll stop and fill up. <strong>Also, we love Trader Joe's</strong>.</p>

<p>Q. What kind of car do you drive?</p>

<p>A. We just bought a Toyota Camry Hybrid. It drives wonderfully. We bought the Camry new. Before that I owned two Infinitis, a 1993 J30 and then a 1997 J30 that I bought used.


</p>

<p><strong>Q. You just moved here from Virginia. Did you buy a house in Orange County?</strong></p>

<p><strong>A. We are renting a very modest place not quite a mile away (from campus) because I wanted to walk to work. We looked at a fancy place in the Orange hills, but it's five miles from here. We own a house in Tucson, and we had a condo in Virginia that we sold last year.</strong></p>

<p><strong>Q. Are you waiting to buy because you think housing prices are still going down?</strong></p>

<p><strong>A. The pattern of these housing bubbles is that demand slows down, but people are very reluctant to lower their prices. Only people forced to sell get out. Prices will finally come down, but they don't go down as fast as they go up. In the gasoline market, they call this the "rocket and feathers": Prices go up like a rocket but come down like feathers.</strong></p>

<p>Q. What do you gamble on in Las Vegas?</p>

<p>A. I hardly ever go to Las Vegas, but my wife and I might play a few slots if we're there. I'm no big-time gambler, except on the stock market. But that's a positive-sum game. Las Vegas is a negative balance.</p>

<p>Q. You said last week that after the recent stock market crash you "went out and cherry-picked" some bargains for yourself. What stocks do you like currently?</p>

<p>A. I still like biotech, IT, and I guess if you are cautious, banks. I still lean in favor of the technology-driven.</p>

<p><strong>Q. Billionaire George Argyros joked recently that he hopes you'll tutor him in the real estate market. Has knowledge of economics made you rich?</strong></p>

<p><strong>A. I have always maximized the amount I could tax shelter every year. You have to realize I've been paying into a retirement account for 50 years. They actually force me to take some money out now. I started a foundation in 1997 that I give my lecture fees to, to support things I believe in.</strong></p>

<a href="http://www.ocregister.com/news/smith-university-chapman-1972978-team-people">Here is the article, that was with the Q&A</a>.





I wonder, would anyone have the guts, to call a Nobel Laureate a "bitter" renter?
 
> I wonder, would anyone have the guts, to call a Nobel Laureate a "bitter" renter?





I would. But then again, I don't have much respect for any organization that honored Jimmy Carter, Al Gore, and Yasser Arafat.
 
<p><strong><em>"The pattern of these housing bubbles is that demand slows down, but people are very reluctant to lower their prices. Only people forced to sell get out. Prices will finally come down, but they don't go down as fast as they go up. In the gasoline market, they call this the "rocket and feathers": Prices go up like a rocket but come down like feathers."</em></strong></p>

<p>Given that 18% drop I wonder what that says about current market conditions, or where we are in the downcycle.</p>
 
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