Newport Coast

[quote author="EvaLSeraphim" date=1210720112]Well... I checked the Nef Cortez foreclosure lists and if the Skyridge home I mentioned above is the same one I found on Nef's list, then the auction was yesterday. There appears to be something odd about the numbers, though. The loan in default was for $12,700,000. The assessed amount was $2,283,418. Is this a case of HELOC abuse? Had there been a sale, the assessed amount should have been higher. Or is it something else? The owner of record is Foundations LLC, and the beneficiary on the trust deed is Magnolia Place LLC.



The minimum bid on this $12M+ loan? $9,986, on a delinquent amount of $15,002.



<a href="http://www.nefcortez.com/home-files/Foreclosures/Archives/OC-TS/OC_TS_Report_04-21-2008.pdf">Am I misreading this?</a></blockquote>


Someone forgot three digits in that minimum bid amount. The estimated debt is $9,986,165.64, and I would imagine that is the opening bid. It has been postponed to 5/19.



Whatever is going on here is funky, as there is no way in hell that place is worth half that, let alone $12.7mil.
 
[quote author="SacRenter" date=1210718095]Bumping this back up because I'm curious what has been going on down there. I know some people who own in one of the nicer sections of Newport Coast and from what I can tell they are HELOC'd pretty heavily. They're getting ready to list their home in the next few months.



What's the news on the streets down there? Is Newport Coast still holding it's value relatively well or has it begun to free fall yet?</blockquote>


Current active inventory per the MLS 212 as of today. (buyers inventory)



Closed sales down month to month (comparing the same months from the previous year) somewhere in the 30-40% region.



5-7% of the 212 active properties are priced to entertain offers. The remaining 92% need to lower prices. There are deals, work with owners that have equity, pass on the homes that have been purchased in the last two-three years. Work with motivated sellers, pass on those who "want to sell".



short-sale/bank owned properties mostly at entry level single family, condominiums/town-homes, and newer developments (i.e. Ziani, Pac Ridge). Prices in NC in 2007 on average came down between 10-15%. Less in Crystal Cove, more like 5%-7%.



Long days on the market count for even the 3 custom Pelican communities, however minimal foreclosures. The ultra wealthy still buy, however not at the 2004/2005 pace. Pelican Crest estate sold for $10.0m this year ($1,000 a square foot). Other high end communities, Ocean Heights, Pelican Heights (formerly Montecito), are still stuck towards latter 2004/early 2005 pricing.



Take St. Michel as an example of the community with the lowest priced sfr's with a backyard and no shared driveway system. currently 8 homes for sale (total of about 120 homes in the development)ranging from $1.2-$1.549m. I know of a listing just cancelled off the market that was being offered at $1,070,000. This home at around $1.0m takes it back to the latter 2003 pricing, a great buy imho.



Overall, prices have to come down more. High end seems somewhat frozen compared to the low end but it'll come down just takes a little longer here. When, for how much, for how long, well that's anybody's guess.
 
[quote author="EvaLSeraphim" date=1210720112]Well... I checked the Nef Cortez foreclosure lists and if the Skyridge home I mentioned above is the same one I found on Nef's list, then the auction was yesterday. There appears to be something odd about the numbers, though. The loan in default was for $12,700,000. The assessed amount was $2,283,418. Is this a case of HELOC abuse? Had there been a sale, the assessed amount should have been higher. Or is it something else? The owner of record is Foundations LLC, and the beneficiary on the trust deed is Magnolia Place LLC.



The minimum bid on this $12M+ loan? $9,986, on a delinquent amount of $15,002.



<a href="http://www.nefcortez.com/home-files/Foreclosures/Archives/OC-TS/OC_TS_Report_04-21-2008.pdf">Am I misreading this?</a></blockquote>




This is the 1 Pelican foreclosure I was speaking of. Auction date has been post-poned numerous times. Lis Penden's on the property, mechanics liens, etc... the home is a big mess.
 
Throwing my thanks in with the others, <strong>sell4u</strong>. Please do update us especially if things begin heating up in the Pelican Hill custom areas.



My gut (and brain) tell me that <strong>IR</strong> is correct in his belief that the high end will be the last to fall. But I keep waiting for cracks in the foundation of NC. Is the Skyridge foreclosure the first indicator of the pending storm? Or is it simply an anomaly and we're still a year or more out from real trouble?



I'm also curious what one or two foreclosures - or even just one or two people selling at a few million below their neighbors - may do to a neighborhood like that. It's a neighborhood where people seemed to think in million dollar increments when the market was strong. Will they be willing to sell for millions less now that it's weak?



Just wondering...



<em>eta: Hey!!! I'm back living with my folks now. I'm moving up in the IHB world...yay!</em>
 
The high end of the market will fall last because they have the most to lose. They also have a fairly decent cushion of credit to hold themselves up.



At the lower end of the market, people with less assets and poorer credit are unlikely to stress too much about a foreclosure.



I just hope this lending mess doesn't spread to business operations and consumer debts. I fear a business owner going through for foreclosure might choose to stop making lease payments on his business as well.
 
IAC has hit it on the head. The upper while having a decent cushion, does result in the last to fall. And it will fall, it will just take longer than most of the rest of OC. The 3 Pelicans will be interesting to see how things pan out, and I will certainly keep this site update.



I have been monitoring Ocean Heights very closely. This is a really neat community, arguable the best views out of the entire Newport Coast. The Perazul and Cassis homes in this community that were once selling for $5.0m and $4.0m approximately at the height of 2006, are now trading at $4.0m and $3.2/$3.3m respectively.



I've seen the condo/townhome and entry level home segment come down a little more than the $2.0m+ segment.



It will be interesting to see if the older communities in NC will roll back more-so than the newer developments. I believe they will.
 
[quote author="SacRenter" date=1210808208]Throwing my thanks in with the others, <strong>sell4u</strong>. Please do update us especially if things begin heating up in the Pelican Hill custom areas.



My gut (and brain) tell me that <strong>IR</strong> is correct in his belief that the high end will be the last to fall. But I keep waiting for cracks in the foundation of NC. Is the Skyridge foreclosure the first indicator of the pending storm? Or is it simply an anomaly and we're still a year or more out from real trouble?



I'm also curious what one or two foreclosures - or even just one or two people selling at a few million below their neighbors - may do to a neighborhood like that. It's a neighborhood where people seemed to think in million dollar increments when the market was strong. Will they be willing to sell for millions less now that it's weak?



Just wondering...



<em>eta: Hey!!! I'm back living with my folks now. I'm moving up in the IHB world...yay!</em></blockquote>




SacRenter ~ My belief is the beginning of the nod's and not's that started going out to NC properties was the indication of the beginning of this storm which I *believe* was towards the beginning of '07 or end of '06, but don't hold me to that. One or two foreclosures, or an original homeowner with equity who has to sell, will begin to start setting the comps with heavy discounts in their respective neighborhoods. In the high end $2.0m-$4.0m I think it will be more of the original owners with equity. In the $1.0m-$2.0m segment I think it will be a mix of both equity status and distress that causes prices to adjust. The ultra high end (the 3 Pelicans), this is going to be a little tougher to gauge because of so many variables.



Tack communities such as Ocean Heights, Santa Lucia, Pelican Heights (formerly Montecito), Coastal Canyon, these home prices I believe will have to come back down to around 2003 pricing before you see sales activity begin to pick up. However, real estate 101 says a home is only worth what a buyer is willing to pay in a given marketplace, even if it means a million less than what the owner could have sold the home for a couple years back. "Many sellers can't help but recall the higher prices of the passed".
 
Here is what I see as one of, if not the best deal (as of today) for a SFR in Newport Coast.



Bank owned, $879k ~ $502sq.ft. (not a shortsale)

Previous owner bought the home in 2005 for $1,051,000

3 bed, 3 bath, 1,750sq.ft.





<a href="http://img137.imageshack.us/my.php?image=sancerrejj1.jpg"><img src="http://img137.imageshack.us/img137/5489/sancerrejj1.th.jpg" alt="" /></a>

<a href="http://img373.imageshack.us/my.php?image=hr960435542wc7.jpg"><img src="http://img373.imageshack.us/img373/1729/hr960435542wc7.th.jpg" alt="" /></a>

<a href="http://img137.imageshack.us/my.php?image=hr9604355414at5.jpg"><img src="http://img137.imageshack.us/img137/6350/hr9604355414at5.th.jpg" alt="" /></a>



Current Inventory for sale in Sancerre

159 Lessay - 1,750sq.ft. $990k ~ $565

45 Calvados - 1,750sq.ft. $999k ~ $570

18 Lessay - 1,750sq.ft. $1,029,000 $588

152 Lessay - 1,956 sq.ft. $1,085,000 ~ $554

66 Lessay - 1,750 sq.ft. $1,099,000 ~ $628

21 Fecamp - 1,956 sq.ft. $1,179,000 ~ 602



Last home sold in Sancerre (via MLS)

48 Lessay - 1,750 sq.ft. $1,100,000 ~ $628 (11/26/2007)
 
Yeah I have no clue why the imageshack picture links are saying that??? What site does everyone use to upload images to this site?
 
I use <a href="http://www.photolava.com/">photolava</a> and I am starting to use <a href="http://www.badongo.com/">badongo</a> for hosting photos. I started using badongo, because I could upload a bunch of pictures at one time, unlike flickr, and for free. Imageshack doesn't like the bandwidth a link eats up.
 
Speaking of foreclosures in NC, <a href="http://www.zillow.com/HomeDetails.htm?zprop=63113553">22 Observatory</a> went back to the bank yesterday for $2.52mil, and it was bought for $2.7mil in 2005. Ouch!
 
[quote author="skek" date=1210991573][quote author="graphrix" date=1210988655]Speaking of foreclosures in NC, <a href="http://www.zillow.com/HomeDetails.htm?zprop=63113553">22 Observatory</a> went back to the bank yesterday for $2.52mil, and it was bought for $2.7mil in 2005. Ouch!</blockquote>


Thanks, graph. This will have repurcussions in Pacific Ridge. The even numbered houses on Observatory have ocean views (correct me if I'm wrong, sell4u). 18 Observatory was the last sale on the street -- just a nudge over $3 million in September 2007. That was an ocean view Plan 2. It's hard to tell, but I think 22 Observatory is a slightly smaller Plan 1, but with a better ocean view on a larger corner lot. And no one stepped up to take it at $2.5 million.



What do you think the seller across the street at <a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Newport-Coast/15-Observatory-92657/home/5928794">15 Observatory </a>thinks? He's asking $2.879 million for a Plan 4 on a smaller lot with no view. How about the two flippers one street higher at <a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Newport-Coast/10-Meridian-92657/home/5928824">10 Meridian</a> and <a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Newport-Coast/12-Meridian-92657/home/5928825">12 Meridian</a>, trying to unload homes with the same view (more rooftops) for $3.275 million and $3.3 million, respectively. Don't get me started on some of the other Cypress sellers in Pacific Ridge.</blockquote>


Awe... Look at our boy skek here, he's all growns up... He sounds like one of us bears now. What about this, or this house, and this house? I love it.



I know quite a few mortgage people in NC, and not just Sadek, who are breathing/living on fumes right now. Tick tock, tick tock... is only a matter of time before we see some more. There are three more scheduled for this month, and one for July. 3 Hidden Pass and 7 Hidden Pass are scheduled for auction, and that must be the cool thing to do on that street.
 
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