Newport Coast

[quote author="Roo" date=1258501636]Here's a pretty nice house at a very reasonable price. I bet it will sell quickly:



<a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Newport-Coast/8-Castellina-Dr-92657/home/5768078">8 Castellina Dr</a></blockquote>


It's a nice looking house. But it has absolutely no ocean view.
 
[quote author="USCTrojanCPA" date=1258553536][quote author="garrison" date=1258508000]$1.599...where would that put it, at 2003'ish prices (assuming it doesn't start a MOA bid wars and get bid up another 150K). I track NPB, CDM and NC, daily - this is a such a rarity on a ppsq basis, and yet we're still salivating over 2003-4 prices.



When is this freakin' nut going to crack?!!!!</blockquote>
When we get some more inventory and Uncle Sam and Helicopter Ben take the punchbowl away.</blockquote>


IMO, neither Obama nor B-52 Ben will take away the punchbowl.
 
[quote author="garrison" date=1258616831]Okay, so what are we now saying guys? Is this the bottom, are we throwing in the towel? I've noticed the tone of the forums change suddenly; people hedging their statements and now talking about anomalies (Irvine), Larry is now selling houses, updating/revising charts, etc...



I made a comment a few months ago about being on the verge of purchasing a NPB home with an ocean view. I stood down after hearing what seemed like cogent arguments to wait it out. "Newport hasn't gone through fear", "it hasn't capitulated", etc... If this is it, I should have made my move a few months ago. My argument was that if it was within 10% of the market bottom, shouldn't I make a move if I can comfortably afford the payment. Now someone else is going to enjoy the home I should have bid on.



I guess that's why stock pickers still work 9-5 drafting charts and making analysis - if they were right more than they were wrong, they'd be sitting on a beach with a cold beer in retirement.



Frustrated...<em><span style="font-size: 11px;">flame suit is on!</span></em></blockquote>
I hate to say it because I was a bear on real estate since last 2008, but the market has definitely shifted the past couple of months. But you have to remember that there is a lot of market manipulation and government intervention out there at the moment along with the low inventory levels. That being said, most all of my buyers are telling me that things are picking up in their businesses and the companies they work at. Hell, I've even began to get interest on the employment front. For now, things have stabilized and are ticking up a bit but again it could be temporary...we will have to see how 2010 plays out. Any increase in inventory levels (via released REOs) and/or in interest rates will begin to put pressure on home prices again.



Edit - you should contact McDonna, she looked for her dream home for years before it literally dropped out of the blue and we snatched it up. It'll happen when you least expect it.
 
[quote author="garrison" date=1258616831]Okay, so what are we now saying guys? Is this the bottom, are we throwing in the towel? I've noticed the tone of the forums change suddenly; people hedging their statements and now talking about anomalies (Irvine), Larry is now selling houses, updating/revising charts, etc...



I made a comment a few months ago about being on the verge of purchasing a NPB home with an ocean view. I stood down after hearing what seemed like cogent arguments to wait it out. "Newport hasn't gone through fear", "it hasn't capitulated", etc... If this is it, I should have made my move a few months ago. My argument was that if it was within 10% of the market bottom, shouldn't I make a move if I can comfortably afford the payment. Now someone else is going to enjoy the home I should have bid on.



I guess that's why stock pickers still work 9-5 drafting charts and making analysis - if they were right more than they were wrong, they'd be sitting on a beach with a cold beer in retirement.



Frustrated...<em><span style="font-size: 11px;">flame suit is on!</span></em></blockquote>


HEEEEEEELLLLLO?!



Unless the house was your absolute dream home, don't think you're too late. It will just be a little bit harder to find that amazing property and will require more time.
 
[quote author="garrison" date=1258616831]Okay, so what are we now saying guys? Is this the bottom, are we throwing in the towel? I've noticed the tone of the forums change suddenly; people hedging their statements and now talking about anomalies (Irvine), Larry is now selling houses, updating/revising charts, etc...



I made a comment a few months ago about being on the verge of purchasing a NPB home with an ocean view. I stood down after hearing what seemed like cogent arguments to wait it out. "Newport hasn't gone through fear", "it hasn't capitulated", etc... If this is it, I should have made my move a few months ago. My argument was that if it was within 10% of the market bottom, shouldn't I make a move if I can comfortably afford the payment. Now someone else is going to enjoy the home I should have bid on.



I guess that's why stock pickers still work 9-5 drafting charts and making analysis - if they were right more than they were wrong, they'd be sitting on a beach with a cold beer in retirement.



Frustrated...<em><span style="font-size: 11px;">flame suit is on!</span></em></blockquote>
Now hold on a sec... I specifically <a href="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/forums/viewthread/6085/#126334">pointed out in another thread</a> that NPB prices were not likely to see radical price drops. You even commented on the post. Did someone convince you otherwise? If so, where is that post?
 
Garrison, I still look closely at the Newport Beach and CDM market (even though I recently bought a place on the Eastside of CM), and I think your patience will pay off in the end. My general vibe is that while sales are rocking in the below 800K level in places like HB or Irvine, the Newport Beach market is still on a downward path with the only new listings being short sales that were previously listed at WTF prices. I think there is more pain for NB.
 
[quote author="garrison" date=1258616831]Okay, so what are we now saying guys? Is this the bottom, are we throwing in the towel? I've noticed the tone of the forums change suddenly; people hedging their statements and now talking about anomalies (Irvine), Larry is now selling houses, updating/revising charts, etc...



I made a comment a few months ago about being on the verge of purchasing a NPB home with an ocean view. I stood down after hearing what seemed like cogent arguments to wait it out. "Newport hasn't gone through fear", "it hasn't capitulated", etc... If this is it, I should have made my move a few months ago. My argument was that if it was within 10% of the market bottom, shouldn't I make a move if I can comfortably afford the payment. Now someone else is going to enjoy the home I should have bid on.



I guess that's why stock pickers still work 9-5 drafting charts and making analysis - if they were right more than they were wrong, they'd be sitting on a beach with a cold beer in retirement.



Frustrated...<em><span style="font-size: 11px;">flame suit is on!</span></em></blockquote>


Garrison,



You made a bold move in selling your home earlier in Oak Creek. More than most, here, you actually placed a hard bet rather than taking a passive "wait-and-see" approach.

It is difficult to sit and wait. Some have tired of it and gone ahead and made their purchases. (Remember that capitulation happens on both sides of the negotiator's table.)

There is also always the possibility of being wrong.



But considering your move... what has changed, materially, from when you made your decision and now?



<span style="color: blue;"><strong>How many people are unemployed?

How many foreclosures are there?

How is the general economy?

What about the first derivative measure of these numbers? How fast is it changing?

What about the second derivative? Are conditions improving or getting worse?</strong></span>



I would hope that you have put more stock into these types of issues than the opinions of (mostly) anonymous souls on a fancy BBS.

I'm quite sure you did.



And the two real questions...

<span style="color: blue;"><strong>If you were comfortable missing the bottom by 10% on the back (declining) end, wouldn't you be OK with missing it on the front (recovery) end by the same amount?

Do you really feel that you've missed the only homebuying opportunity that will make you and yours happy?</strong></span>



-IrvineRealtor



P.S. Regarding your stock-picker analogy - Warren B. is still working. So is Tiger. So is Kobe. And I'm guessing their yeast soda tastes just as good, if not better, than the others that they've forced to retire... and with that, I'm off to polish off a bottle of suds myself. <em>Lock your fridge, CK.</em>
 
[quote author="garrison" date=1258635174][quote author="Nude" date=1258619482]

Now hold on a sec... I specifically <a href="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/forums/viewthread/6085/#126334">pointed out in another thread</a> that NPB prices were not likely to see radical price drops. You even commented on the post. Did someone convince you otherwise? If so, where is that post?</blockquote>


Nude,



Nah, I'm just punchy this evening. I don't feel like looking up specific posts, but in general, the theme of many of them was that the mid-to-higher-end homes had much more pain to go through. Just extrapolating data from Larry's charts forecasted another 15-20% drop to reach the bottom (specifically for Irvine - but why would Newport be <em><strong>that</strong></em> much different?). I know there will always be a premium for coastal towns, but does the divergence from other areas grow and get amplified with every bubble cycle? Doesn't seem logical. Newport is still selling at 2004-5 levels. You don't think there's still more room to fall?



I realize that nobody could have forecast the ridiculous measures the government has enacted to cushion the "pop". And because of that, I find myself in a David vs Goliath scenario, except the little guy (me) is losing the battle. Eventually I fear they'll win; I'll lose out on the attrition battle and buy before the bottom.



On a side note: Due to my past job, and all throughout my childhood, I've never lived in a house continuously for more than 3 years. Because of that, I never felt like I had a "home" (neighborhood BBQs, playing with kids in the street, etc...) Juxtapose that with my wife, who grew up in the same house her entire childhood and still maintains friends she's had since kindergarten. I want that for my daughter; that has it's own intrinsic value.



[quote author="RoLar" date=1258617854]

HEEEEEEELLLLLO?!



Unless the house was your absolute dream home, don't think you're too late. It will just be a little bit harder to find that amazing property and will require more time.</blockquote>


RoLar,



I was exaggerating out of frustration. I was within 75K of pulling the trigger and didn't make a move; the house that I was on the fence for, finally closed escrow. Secretly, I was hoping it would fall through and I'd get a desperation call from the listing agent telling me to make an offer. Oh well, life goes on.



My wife and I are super picky about location, so unfortunately it's going to limit our selection from an area that already has incredibly low turnover. I think my agent and I need to come up with a strategy. ;)</blockquote>


Garrison,



Look at the satellite views and tax rolls of every house in the neighborhood, pick out the ones you think you would be interested in and have your agent send out a letter discussing your situation and what you are looking for. It's a long shot but it surprisingly works out on occasion. It helps if in the letter your agent asks for the home owner's agent to contact him/her so it doesn't look like a solicitation. Also, always hand write the addresses on the envelopes.
 
The sentiment has changed drmatically because of short-term fluctuations in the housing market.



I still feel the current cyclical trend is downward, but there's a wave right now. Everything the government is doing is good for the short-term but given that it is not sustainable, it won't save the market, but give it a chance to take a big deep breath.



There's one thing I don't want to miss out and it's the opporunity to buy a home at a very low interest rate (<6%). You must always balance the home price vs. interest rates and see how it plays out on your true cost of ownership.



As far as not wanting to wait for 2013...well I can understand that, but patience will be rewarded. Who knows if you would really need to wait that long or if by 2011 you would be within the 10% threshold you are looking for. One thing is sure is that buying now is still a gamble. I like to make smart decisions and I can't make smart decisions when the market is irrational. Things will have to settle down, once that happens it will be easier to figure out where things are headed.
 
[quote author="RoLar_USC" date=1258680766][quote author="garrison" date=1258635174][quote author="Nude" date=1258619482]

Now hold on a sec... I specifically <a href="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/forums/viewthread/6085/#126334">pointed out in another thread</a> that NPB prices were not likely to see radical price drops. You even commented on the post. Did someone convince you otherwise? If so, where is that post?</blockquote>


Nude,



Nah, I'm just punchy this evening. I don't feel like looking up specific posts, but in general, the theme of many of them was that the mid-to-higher-end homes had much more pain to go through. Just extrapolating data from Larry's charts forecasted another 15-20% drop to reach the bottom (specifically for Irvine - but why would Newport be <em><strong>that</strong></em> much different?). I know there will always be a premium for coastal towns, but does the divergence from other areas grow and get amplified with every bubble cycle? Doesn't seem logical. Newport is still selling at 2004-5 levels. You don't think there's still more room to fall?



I realize that nobody could have forecast the ridiculous measures the government has enacted to cushion the "pop". And because of that, I find myself in a David vs Goliath scenario, except the little guy (me) is losing the battle. Eventually I fear they'll win; I'll lose out on the attrition battle and buy before the bottom.



On a side note: Due to my past job, and all throughout my childhood, I've never lived in a house continuously for more than 3 years. Because of that, I never felt like I had a "home" (neighborhood BBQs, playing with kids in the street, etc...) Juxtapose that with my wife, who grew up in the same house her entire childhood and still maintains friends she's had since kindergarten. I want that for my daughter; that has it's own intrinsic value.



[quote author="RoLar" date=1258617854]

HEEEEEEELLLLLO?!



Unless the house was your absolute dream home, don't think you're too late. It will just be a little bit harder to find that amazing property and will require more time.</blockquote>


RoLar,



I was exaggerating out of frustration. I was within 75K of pulling the trigger and didn't make a move; the house that I was on the fence for, finally closed escrow. Secretly, I was hoping it would fall through and I'd get a desperation call from the listing agent telling me to make an offer. Oh well, life goes on.



My wife and I are super picky about location, so unfortunately it's going to limit our selection from an area that already has incredibly low turnover. I think my agent and I need to come up with a strategy. ;)</blockquote>


Garrison,



Look at the satellite views and tax rolls of every house in the neighborhood, pick out the ones you think you would be interested in and have your agent send out a letter discussing your situation and what you are looking for. It's a long shot but it surprisingly works out on occasion. It helps if in the letter your agent asks for the home owner's agent to contact him/her so it doesn't look like a solicitation. Also, always hand write the addresses on the envelopes.</blockquote>


I find this method works better with no agent involved.
 
[quote author="Roo" date=1258681639]The sentiment has changed drmatically because of short-term fluctuations in the housing market.



<strong>There's one thing I don't want to miss out and it's the opporunity to buy a home at a very low interest rate (<6%). </strong> You must always balance the home price vs. interest rates and see how it plays out on your true cost of ownership.

</blockquote>


This is not sound reasoning. When interest rates rise, prices go down to provide for a comparable monthly payment. Buying at lower prices with higher interest also has ancillary benefits by (i) being able to refinance later on when rates eventually decrease again (thus lowering your cost of ownership), and (ii) having a lower property tax payment upon purchase.
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1258695355][quote author="RoLar_USC" date=1258680766][quote author="garrison" date=1258635174][quote author="Nude" date=1258619482]

Now hold on a sec... I specifically <a href="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/forums/viewthread/6085/#126334">pointed out in another thread</a> that NPB prices were not likely to see radical price drops. You even commented on the post. Did someone convince you otherwise? If so, where is that post?</blockquote>


Nude,



Nah, I'm just punchy this evening. I don't feel like looking up specific posts, but in general, the theme of many of them was that the mid-to-higher-end homes had much more pain to go through. Just extrapolating data from Larry's charts forecasted another 15-20% drop to reach the bottom (specifically for Irvine - but why would Newport be <em><strong>that</strong></em> much different?). I know there will always be a premium for coastal towns, but does the divergence from other areas grow and get amplified with every bubble cycle? Doesn't seem logical. Newport is still selling at 2004-5 levels. You don't think there's still more room to fall?



I realize that nobody could have forecast the ridiculous measures the government has enacted to cushion the "pop". And because of that, I find myself in a David vs Goliath scenario, except the little guy (me) is losing the battle. Eventually I fear they'll win; I'll lose out on the attrition battle and buy before the bottom.



On a side note: Due to my past job, and all throughout my childhood, I've never lived in a house continuously for more than 3 years. Because of that, I never felt like I had a "home" (neighborhood BBQs, playing with kids in the street, etc...) Juxtapose that with my wife, who grew up in the same house her entire childhood and still maintains friends she's had since kindergarten. I want that for my daughter; that has it's own intrinsic value.



[quote author="RoLar" date=1258617854]

HEEEEEEELLLLLO?!



Unless the house was your absolute dream home, don't think you're too late. It will just be a little bit harder to find that amazing property and will require more time.</blockquote>


RoLar,



I was exaggerating out of frustration. I was within 75K of pulling the trigger and didn't make a move; the house that I was on the fence for, finally closed escrow. Secretly, I was hoping it would fall through and I'd get a desperation call from the listing agent telling me to make an offer. Oh well, life goes on.



My wife and I are super picky about location, so unfortunately it's going to limit our selection from an area that already has incredibly low turnover. I think my agent and I need to come up with a strategy. ;)</blockquote>


Garrison,



Look at the satellite views and tax rolls of every house in the neighborhood, pick out the ones you think you would be interested in and have your agent send out a letter discussing your situation and what you are looking for. It's a long shot but it surprisingly works out on occasion. It helps if in the letter your agent asks for the home owner's agent to contact him/her so it doesn't look like a solicitation. Also, always hand write the addresses on the envelopes.</blockquote>


I find this method works better with no agent involved.</blockquote>


Whether he does it or his agent does it, wasn't the point. Just offering advice for what to do with slow neighborhoods.
 
[quote author="garrison" date=1258635174][quote author="Nude" date=1258619482]

Now hold on a sec... I specifically <a href="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/forums/viewthread/6085/#126334">pointed out in another thread</a> that NPB prices were not likely to see radical price drops. You even commented on the post. Did someone convince you otherwise? If so, where is that post?</blockquote>


Nude,



Nah, I'm just punchy this evening. I don't feel like looking up specific posts, but in general, the theme of many of them was that the mid-to-higher-end homes had much more pain to go through. Just extrapolating data from Larry's charts forecasted another 15-20% drop to reach the bottom (specifically for Irvine - but why would Newport be <em><strong>that</strong></em> much different?). I know there will always be a premium for coastal towns, but does the divergence from other areas grow and get amplified with every bubble cycle? Doesn't seem logical. Newport is still selling at 2004-5 levels. You don't think there's still more room to fall?



I realize that nobody could have forecast the ridiculous measures the government has enacted to cushion the "pop". And because of that, I find myself in a David vs Goliath scenario, except the little guy (me) is losing the battle. Eventually I fear they'll win; I'll lose out on the attrition battle and buy before the bottom.



On a side note: Due to my past job, and all throughout my childhood, I've never lived in a house continuously for more than 3 years. Because of that, I never felt like I had a "home" (neighborhood BBQs, playing with kids in the street, etc...) Juxtapose that with my wife, who grew up in the same house her entire childhood and still maintains friends she's had since kindergarten. I want that for my daughter; that has it's own intrinsic value.



[quote author="RoLar_USC" date=1258617854]

HEEEEEEELLLLLO?!



Unless the house was your absolute dream home, don't think you're too late. It will just be a little bit harder to find that amazing property and will require more time.</blockquote>


RoLar,



I was exaggerating out of frustration. I was within 75K of pulling the trigger and didn't make a move; the house that I was on the fence for, finally closed escrow. Secretly, I was hoping it would fall through and I'd get a desperation call from the listing agent telling me to make an offer. Oh well, life goes on.



My wife and I are super picky about location, so unfortunately it's going to limit our selection from an area that already has incredibly low turnover. I think my agent and I need to come up with a strategy. ;)</blockquote>


Curious: Was this home that you lost out on in the same neighborhood? (Ocean Heights)? I went through what you did so when I found the right house (and it was much nicer than the "one that got away"), I didn't screw around.
 
[quote author="RoLar_USC" date=1258734462][quote author="awgee" date=1258695355][quote author="RoLar_USC" date=1258680766][quote author="garrison" date=1258635174][quote author="Nude" date=1258619482]

Now hold on a sec... I specifically <a href="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/forums/viewthread/6085/#126334">pointed out in another thread</a> that NPB prices were not likely to see radical price drops. You even commented on the post. Did someone convince you otherwise? If so, where is that post?</blockquote>


Nude,



Nah, I'm just punchy this evening. I don't feel like looking up specific posts, but in general, the theme of many of them was that the mid-to-higher-end homes had much more pain to go through. Just extrapolating data from Larry's charts forecasted another 15-20% drop to reach the bottom (specifically for Irvine - but why would Newport be <em><strong>that</strong></em> much different?). I know there will always be a premium for coastal towns, but does the divergence from other areas grow and get amplified with every bubble cycle? Doesn't seem logical. Newport is still selling at 2004-5 levels. You don't think there's still more room to fall?



I realize that nobody could have forecast the ridiculous measures the government has enacted to cushion the "pop". And because of that, I find myself in a David vs Goliath scenario, except the little guy (me) is losing the battle. Eventually I fear they'll win; I'll lose out on the attrition battle and buy before the bottom.



On a side note: Due to my past job, and all throughout my childhood, I've never lived in a house continuously for more than 3 years. Because of that, I never felt like I had a "home" (neighborhood BBQs, playing with kids in the street, etc...) Juxtapose that with my wife, who grew up in the same house her entire childhood and still maintains friends she's had since kindergarten. I want that for my daughter; that has it's own intrinsic value.



[quote author="RoLar" date=1258617854]

HEEEEEEELLLLLO?!



Unless the house was your absolute dream home, don't think you're too late. It will just be a little bit harder to find that amazing property and will require more time.</blockquote>


RoLar,



I was exaggerating out of frustration. I was within 75K of pulling the trigger and didn't make a move; the house that I was on the fence for, finally closed escrow. Secretly, I was hoping it would fall through and I'd get a desperation call from the listing agent telling me to make an offer. Oh well, life goes on.



My wife and I are super picky about location, so unfortunately it's going to limit our selection from an area that already has incredibly low turnover. I think my agent and I need to come up with a strategy. ;)</blockquote>


Garrison,



Look at the satellite views and tax rolls of every house in the neighborhood, pick out the ones you think you would be interested in and have your agent send out a letter discussing your situation and what you are looking for. It's a long shot but it surprisingly works out on occasion. It helps if in the letter your agent asks for the home owner's agent to contact him/her so it doesn't look like a solicitation. Also, always hand write the addresses on the envelopes.</blockquote>


I find this method works better with no agent involved.</blockquote>


Whether he does it or his agent does it, wasn't the point. Just offering advice for what to do with slow neighborhoods.</blockquote>
Yes, but it was my point. My family has noticed that there is a more numerous response to a letter from a regular Joe than from a realtor/salesperson. Just offering advice for what to do with slow neighborhoods.
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1258758768][quote author="RoLar_USC" date=1258734462][quote author="awgee" date=1258695355][quote author="RoLar_USC" date=1258680766][quote author="garrison" date=1258635174][quote author="Nude" date=1258619482]

Now hold on a sec... I specifically <a href="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/forums/viewthread/6085/#126334">pointed out in another thread</a> that NPB prices were not likely to see radical price drops. You even commented on the post. Did someone convince you otherwise? If so, where is that post?</blockquote>


Nude,



Nah, I'm just punchy this evening. I don't feel like looking up specific posts, but in general, the theme of many of them was that the mid-to-higher-end homes had much more pain to go through. Just extrapolating data from Larry's charts forecasted another 15-20% drop to reach the bottom (specifically for Irvine - but why would Newport be <em><strong>that</strong></em> much different?). I know there will always be a premium for coastal towns, but does the divergence from other areas grow and get amplified with every bubble cycle? Doesn't seem logical. Newport is still selling at 2004-5 levels. You don't think there's still more room to fall?



I realize that nobody could have forecast the ridiculous measures the government has enacted to cushion the "pop". And because of that, I find myself in a David vs Goliath scenario, except the little guy (me) is losing the battle. Eventually I fear they'll win; I'll lose out on the attrition battle and buy before the bottom.



On a side note: Due to my past job, and all throughout my childhood, I've never lived in a house continuously for more than 3 years. Because of that, I never felt like I had a "home" (neighborhood BBQs, playing with kids in the street, etc...) Juxtapose that with my wife, who grew up in the same house her entire childhood and still maintains friends she's had since kindergarten. I want that for my daughter; that has it's own intrinsic value.



[quote author="RoLar" date=1258617854]

HEEEEEEELLLLLO?!



Unless the house was your absolute dream home, don't think you're too late. It will just be a little bit harder to find that amazing property and will require more time.</blockquote>


RoLar,



I was exaggerating out of frustration. I was within 75K of pulling the trigger and didn't make a move; the house that I was on the fence for, finally closed escrow. Secretly, I was hoping it would fall through and I'd get a desperation call from the listing agent telling me to make an offer. Oh well, life goes on.



My wife and I are super picky about location, so unfortunately it's going to limit our selection from an area that already has incredibly low turnover. I think my agent and I need to come up with a strategy. ;)</blockquote>


Garrison,



Look at the satellite views and tax rolls of every house in the neighborhood, pick out the ones you think you would be interested in and have your agent send out a letter discussing your situation and what you are looking for. It's a long shot but it surprisingly works out on occasion. It helps if in the letter your agent asks for the home owner's agent to contact him/her so it doesn't look like a solicitation. Also, always hand write the addresses on the envelopes.</blockquote>


I find this method works better with no agent involved.</blockquote>


Whether he does it or his agent does it, wasn't the point. Just offering advice for what to do with slow neighborhoods.</blockquote>
Yes, but it was my point. My family has noticed that there is a more numerous response to a letter from a regular Joe than from a realtor/salesperson. Just offering advice for what to do with slow neighborhoods.</blockquote>


Just curious. How do you find homeowner information easily without access to the MLS? Is there another site that you guys use?
 
[quote author="RoLar_USC" date=1258765461][quote author="awgee" date=1258758768][quote author="RoLar_USC" date=1258734462][quote author="awgee" date=1258695355][quote author="RoLar_USC" date=1258680766][quote author="garrison" date=1258635174][quote author="Nude" date=1258619482]

Now hold on a sec... I specifically <a href="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/forums/viewthread/6085/#126334">pointed out in another thread</a> that NPB prices were not likely to see radical price drops. You even commented on the post. Did someone convince you otherwise? If so, where is that post?</blockquote>


Nude,



Nah, I'm just punchy this evening. I don't feel like looking up specific posts, but in general, the theme of many of them was that the mid-to-higher-end homes had much more pain to go through. Just extrapolating data from Larry's charts forecasted another 15-20% drop to reach the bottom (specifically for Irvine - but why would Newport be <em><strong>that</strong></em> much different?). I know there will always be a premium for coastal towns, but does the divergence from other areas grow and get amplified with every bubble cycle? Doesn't seem logical. Newport is still selling at 2004-5 levels. You don't think there's still more room to fall?



I realize that nobody could have forecast the ridiculous measures the government has enacted to cushion the "pop". And because of that, I find myself in a David vs Goliath scenario, except the little guy (me) is losing the battle. Eventually I fear they'll win; I'll lose out on the attrition battle and buy before the bottom.



On a side note: Due to my past job, and all throughout my childhood, I've never lived in a house continuously for more than 3 years. Because of that, I never felt like I had a "home" (neighborhood BBQs, playing with kids in the street, etc...) Juxtapose that with my wife, who grew up in the same house her entire childhood and still maintains friends she's had since kindergarten. I want that for my daughter; that has it's own intrinsic value.



[quote author="RoLar" date=1258617854]

HEEEEEEELLLLLO?!



Unless the house was your absolute dream home, don't think you're too late. It will just be a little bit harder to find that amazing property and will require more time.</blockquote>


RoLar,



I was exaggerating out of frustration. I was within 75K of pulling the trigger and didn't make a move; the house that I was on the fence for, finally closed escrow. Secretly, I was hoping it would fall through and I'd get a desperation call from the listing agent telling me to make an offer. Oh well, life goes on.



My wife and I are super picky about location, so unfortunately it's going to limit our selection from an area that already has incredibly low turnover. I think my agent and I need to come up with a strategy. ;)</blockquote>


Garrison,



Look at the satellite views and tax rolls of every house in the neighborhood, pick out the ones you think you would be interested in and have your agent send out a letter discussing your situation and what you are looking for. It's a long shot but it surprisingly works out on occasion. It helps if in the letter your agent asks for the home owner's agent to contact him/her so it doesn't look like a solicitation. Also, always hand write the addresses on the envelopes.</blockquote>


I find this method works better with no agent involved.</blockquote>


Whether he does it or his agent does it, wasn't the point. Just offering advice for what to do with slow neighborhoods.</blockquote>
Yes, but it was my point. My family has noticed that there is a more numerous response to a letter from a regular Joe than from a realtor/salesperson. Just offering advice for what to do with slow neighborhoods.</blockquote>


Just curious. How do you find homeowner information easily without access to the MLS? Is there another site that you guys use?</blockquote>
Or what kinda loans they have on their properties?
 
[quote author="RoLar_USC" date=1258765461][quote author="awgee" date=1258758768][quote author="RoLar_USC" date=1258734462][quote author="awgee" date=1258695355][quote author="RoLar_USC" date=1258680766][quote author="garrison" date=1258635174][quote author="Nude" date=1258619482]

Now hold on a sec... I specifically <a href="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/forums/viewthread/6085/#126334">pointed out in another thread</a> that NPB prices were not likely to see radical price drops. You even commented on the post. Did someone convince you otherwise? If so, where is that post?</blockquote>


Nude,



Nah, I'm just punchy this evening. I don't feel like looking up specific posts, but in general, the theme of many of them was that the mid-to-higher-end homes had much more pain to go through. Just extrapolating data from Larry's charts forecasted another 15-20% drop to reach the bottom (specifically for Irvine - but why would Newport be <em><strong>that</strong></em> much different?). I know there will always be a premium for coastal towns, but does the divergence from other areas grow and get amplified with every bubble cycle? Doesn't seem logical. Newport is still selling at 2004-5 levels. You don't think there's still more room to fall?



I realize that nobody could have forecast the ridiculous measures the government has enacted to cushion the "pop". And because of that, I find myself in a David vs Goliath scenario, except the little guy (me) is losing the battle. Eventually I fear they'll win; I'll lose out on the attrition battle and buy before the bottom.



On a side note: Due to my past job, and all throughout my childhood, I've never lived in a house continuously for more than 3 years. Because of that, I never felt like I had a "home" (neighborhood BBQs, playing with kids in the street, etc...) Juxtapose that with my wife, who grew up in the same house her entire childhood and still maintains friends she's had since kindergarten. I want that for my daughter; that has it's own intrinsic value.



[quote author="RoLar" date=1258617854]

HEEEEEEELLLLLO?!



Unless the house was your absolute dream home, don't think you're too late. It will just be a little bit harder to find that amazing property and will require more time.</blockquote>


RoLar,



I was exaggerating out of frustration. I was within 75K of pulling the trigger and didn't make a move; the house that I was on the fence for, finally closed escrow. Secretly, I was hoping it would fall through and I'd get a desperation call from the listing agent telling me to make an offer. Oh well, life goes on.



My wife and I are super picky about location, so unfortunately it's going to limit our selection from an area that already has incredibly low turnover. I think my agent and I need to come up with a strategy. ;)</blockquote>


Garrison,



Look at the satellite views and tax rolls of every house in the neighborhood, pick out the ones you think you would be interested in and have your agent send out a letter discussing your situation and what you are looking for. It's a long shot but it surprisingly works out on occasion. It helps if in the letter your agent asks for the home owner's agent to contact him/her so it doesn't look like a solicitation. Also, always hand write the addresses on the envelopes.</blockquote>


I find this method works better with no agent involved.</blockquote>


Whether he does it or his agent does it, wasn't the point. Just offering advice for what to do with slow neighborhoods.</blockquote>
Yes, but it was my point. My family has noticed that there is a more numerous response to a letter from a regular Joe than from a realtor/salesperson. Just offering advice for what to do with slow neighborhoods.</blockquote>


Just curious. How do you find homeowner information easily without access to the MLS? Is there another site that you guys use?</blockquote>


The welcome mat is a pretty good site. And loan info is immaterial if you know what you would pay for a home.
 
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