[quote author="garrison" date=1249777526]I didn't articulate my point well. To give you a hypothetical, here's a scenario:
I continue renting for another year or so, accumulating more to my already decent sized down payment. The market in N.B. is down 55% from the peak (let's say, another 15% from where it is today). I happen to be browsing with my wife on refin and come across a property that is just "it" for us. I can comfortably afford it on my single income stream (even more so once my wife heads back to work as my daughter starts kindergarten). My question to all of you was where the lubber line was eventually going to go to, at the very bottom (all theoretical, I know) If all of you said, "N.B. should eventually reset to 70% off of peak", and I find this house at a time when it's only down 60%, I'm comfortable taking a potential 10% loss if your prognostications are accurate; getting into the right house in the right neighborhood was worth a potential 10%'ish downside risk. I'm not saying I'm buying next week, next month or next year....but if a diamond in the rough comes along, I want to compare it's price point against an overall backdrop.
What I don't want to do is find this dream home (one that I could still afford), close escrow, and two years later watch my 30+% down payment evaporate. Again, I fully feel that we are nowhere close to the bottom, I was just hoping for an educated, "best guess" as to when and how low things will go in N.B.
**IrvineRenter, would you care to chime in and offer your opinion?**</blockquote>
The beach communities have not seen their pain yet. Buying there now is likely to result in a complete loss of equity. There are many neighborhoods where you can buy below rental parity, but Irvine and the beach communities are not among them. I wouldn't buy in either location with today's prices. These markets are still in denial. They have not even begun to feel fear much less capitulation. They are not at the bottom.