New Release: Monitoring Irvine Foreclosure Listings

[graphrix_IHB]

If you like to continue seeing this page, please e-mail site admin to put this thread "sticky"; I'll update the stats every month.

If you have the balls and time to do this, then I will make this a sticky. You just better have the balls to take the wrath of me, and many others here showing you all the other non-MLS foreclosures.

BTW, the little PDF file you posted a while ago about rent vs. buy... yeah, you forgot to input the interest on the down payment for renting. Yeah... if you do that, then it looks like you would come out ahead if you rented. Of course an UCI MBA with a master's in planning from USC would have been able to do that simple math in their head, and not need for it to be done on the sheet. A "smart buyer" maybe not so much.

Oh... and is there a good reason why your name doesn't show up under the broker's license of the company you work for, or your name show up in the DRE database? You aren't using a nickname are you? I would hate to see you get in trouble with the DRE for a nickname/DBA 2731 violation.

 

[OC Returnee_IHB]

If you like to continue seeing this page, please e-mail site admin to put this thread "sticky"; I'll update the stats every month.

BTW, the little PDF file you posted a while ago about rent vs. buy... yeah, you forgot to input the interest on the down payment for renting. Yeah... if you do that, then it looks like you would come out ahead if you rented. Of course an UCI MBA with a master's in planning from USC would have been able to do that simple math in their head, and not need for it to be done on the sheet. A "smart buyer" maybe not so much.

Some other homeownership costs that appeared to missing from the PDF analysis when I compared it to my "informed decisions" rent vs buy model: insurance and maintenance costs, sales commissions upon selling, mortgage closing costs, loss of standard deduction upon itemizing, more realistic HOA (I backed out about $75/mo), more realistic interest rate (5.875%appears to assume a lower ARM rate), in addition to the opportunity costs for the down payment that Graphrix mentions.

When I allowed for these (but still assuming the aggressive 6% annual appreciation), it knocks the $174K net benefit (10 yrs) in the PDF file down to less than $90K. Based on a more realistic appreciation rate of 1%/year, the net benefit of buying becomes a net cost of about - $60K, and does not breakeven until one assumes appreciation of more than 3%/yr. My conclusion in this example = RENT.

[ps, my MBA is from UCLA]

 

[Gohabsgo_IHB]

Based on a more realistic appreciation rate of 1%/year, the net benefit of buying becomes a net cost of about - $60K, and does not breakeven until one assumes appreciation of more than 3%/yr. My conclusion in this example = RENT.

[ps, my MBA is from UCLA]

When I was seriously thinking about buying 2 years ago, I made the same calculations and found 2% appreciation being the breakeven point. (no MBA...)

 

[No_Such_Reality_IHB]

When I was seriously thinking about buying 2 years ago, I made the same calculations and found 2% appreciation being the breakeven point. (no MBA...)

Two years ago, housing was so leveraged that it didn't matter what you put in for all the different numbers, only one number drove the calculation and that was appreciation. It became blatantly obvious when any appreication at all resulted in the better decision being owning even when rent increases were 0%.

Today it's the same story, if you think it's going down, it doesn't matter what you put in for rent increases, waiting is better. If you think it's going back up, buying is better than renting.

If you think it's going to be nearly flat, then you can spin yourself in circles toying with rent numbers. Are they going up, are they going down. Is the rent $3000/month? Or is it $2500? Or $3500?

 

[TeamworkHomes_IHB]

If you like to continue seeing this page, please e-mail site admin to put this thread "sticky"; I'll update the stats every month.

BTW, the little PDF file you posted a while ago about rent vs. buy... yeah, you forgot to input the interest on the down payment for renting. Yeah... if you do that, then it looks like you would come out ahead if you rented. Of course an UCI MBA with a master's in planning from USC would have been able to do that simple math in their head, and not need for it to be done on the sheet. A "smart buyer" maybe not so much.

Some other homeownership costs that appeared to missing from the PDF analysis when I compared it to my "informed decisions" rent vs buy model: insurance and maintenance costs, sales commissions upon selling, mortgage closing costs, loss of standard deduction upon itemizing, more realistic HOA (I backed out about $75/mo), more realistic interest rate (5.875%appears to assume a lower ARM rate), in addition to the opportunity costs for the down payment that Graphrix mentions.

When I allowed for these (but still assuming the aggressive 6% annual appreciation), it knocks the $174K net benefit (10 yrs) in the PDF file down to less than $90K. Based on a more realistic appreciation rate of 1%/year, the net benefit of buying becomes a net cost of about - $60K, and does not breakeven until one assumes appreciation of more than 3%/yr. My conclusion in this example = RENT.

[ps, my MBA is from UCLA]

The model assumed 7% disposition cost, and other homeownership costs were considered also; This financial model is only a tool; you have to input your assumption, and it will give you the results; you have to decide whether they are good or bad for personal situations. On another thread, I'll discuss more on rent vs buy tool. Criticism is welcome, but no personal attack and name calling please, since those don't add value to this forum.

 

[TeamworkHomes_IHB]

New Release: Monitoring Irvine Foreclosure Listings

Please see the first post for new data in August 2008.

Comment on “Shadow Inventory”: It normally takes months (probably 6 to 12) for pre-foreclosure properties NOD,NTS and REO to pass many legal hurdles before they hit the resale market. Some percentage of NODs and NTSs will be reinstated before Trustee’s Sale. Technically speaking, they can’t be counted as “inventory” until they are put on MLS, where most REO homes are marketed. Again, banks and asset managers are not in the business selling real estate; They ultimately hire brokers to do the selling. If brokers can’t sell certain properties, they end up in public auction.

 

[graphrix_IHB]

New Release: Monitoring Irvine Foreclosure Listings

Please see the first post for new data in August 2008.

Comment on “Shadow Inventory”: It normally takes months (probably 6 to 12) for pre-foreclosure properties NOD,NTS and REO to pass many legal hurdles before they hit the resale market. Some percentage of NODs and NTSs will be reinstated before Trustee’s Sale. Technically speaking, they can’t be counted as “inventory” until they are put on MLS, where most REO homes are marketed. Again, banks and asset managers are not in the business selling real estate; They ultimately hire brokers to do the selling. If brokers can’t sell certain properties, they end up in public auction.

For the love of gawd will you please read the foreclosure thread already? Your comments make it sound like we wouldn't have a clue about how long it takes to get from NOD to market. Maybe if you read the thread you would be a little more concerned about the coming inventory. BTW, the NOD to foreclosure ratio is running about 65% right now. Did you know that? You would if you read the foreclosure thread. Do yourself and everyone here a favor, get more informed about the info you can find here before you post, otherwise I will keep bagging on you until you show some respect and actually read up on who you are dealing with here.

 

[SoCal78_IHB]

However, you may want to refrain from posting 'practical tips' until you have proven yourself as trustworthy to the community here.

Shark Bait - Hoo - Ha - Ha!

 

[TeamworkHomes_IHB]

New Release: Monitoring Irvine Foreclosure Listings

Please see the first post for new data in August 2008.

Comment on “Shadow Inventory”: It normally takes months (probably 6 to 12) for pre-foreclosure properties NOD,NTS and REO to pass many legal hurdles before they hit the resale market. Some percentage of NODs and NTSs will be reinstated before Trustee’s Sale. Technically speaking, they can’t be counted as “inventory” until they are put on MLS, where most REO homes are marketed. Again, banks and asset managers are not in the business selling real estate; They ultimately hire brokers to do the selling. If brokers can’t sell certain properties, they end up in public auction.

For the love of gawd will you please read the foreclosure thread already? Your comments make it sound like we wouldn't have a clue about how long it takes to get from NOD to market. Maybe if you read the thread you would be a little more concerned about the coming inventory. BTW, the NOD to foreclosure ratio is running about 65% right now. Did you know that? You would if you read the foreclosure thread. Do yourself and everyone here a favor, get more informed about the info you can find here before you post, otherwise I will keep bagging on you until you show some respect and actually read up on who you are dealing with here.

Thanks for the truth about 65% conversion ratio on REO. Is it national average, or CA, OC, or just Irvine? Didn't they teach you we have 50 states. And with 50 states, you have 50 different markets. Even within Irvine, you have sub-segments of the local market. I would appreciate the specifics, or someone can be accused of mis-informing. Reading from the posts, it sounds like the sky is falling. Belive me, everyone would love to have the truth; but getting the half-truth won’t set you free, free of fear and deprivation of hope. To bring a complete balanced view of the market, it would be beneficial for the readers to access different viewpoints, to see both sides of the coin. Honestly speaking, who has the know-how and time to search and read all the posts? Newbies? Anyone here who has a full-time job and family life?

My comments were not meant to direct to anyone. I just believe readers need to know the fact, without serching and wasting valueable time reading rumors and speculations. If anyone were offended by my comments, then grow up; we live in a free world. Or maybe I forgot that someone actually own the board here.

Regarding the “pending inventory”, readers should be concerned if lenders dumped them all at once in the market. But what are the probability of this event? If they release those REOs in an oderly manner like they do today, I won’t worry.

With all the due respects, I still won’t call a caterpillar buttetrfly until it becomes one; just so not to confuse and mis-inform anyone.

 

[TeamworkHomes_IHB]

However, you may want to refrain from posting 'practical tips' until you have proven yourself as trustworthy to the community here.

Shark Bait - Hoo - Ha - Ha!

So you think the blog readers are as gullible as what-is-his-name? I don't know if you mean compliment or insult to them.

 

[awgee_IHB]

New Release: Monitoring Irvine Foreclosure Listings

Please see the first post for new data in August 2008.

Comment on “Shadow Inventory”: It normally takes months (probably 6 to 12) for pre-foreclosure properties NOD,NTS and REO to pass many legal hurdles before they hit the resale market. Some percentage of NODs and NTSs will be reinstated before Trustee’s Sale. Technically speaking, they can’t be counted as “inventory” until they are put on MLS, where most REO homes are marketed. Again, banks and asset managers are not in the business selling real estate; They ultimately hire brokers to do the selling. If brokers can’t sell certain properties, they end up in public auction.

For the love of gawd will you please read the foreclosure thread already? Your comments make it sound like we wouldn't have a clue about how long it takes to get from NOD to market. Maybe if you read the thread you would be a little more concerned about the coming inventory. BTW, the NOD to foreclosure ratio is running about 65% right now. Did you know that? You would if you read the foreclosure thread. Do yourself and everyone here a favor, get more informed about the info you can find here before you post, otherwise I will keep bagging on you until you show some respect and actually read up on who you are dealing with here.

Thanks for the truth about 65% conversion ratio on REO. Is it national average, or CA, OC, or just Irvine? Didn't they teach you we have 50 states. And with 50 states, you have 50 different markets. Even within Irvine, you have sub-segments of the local market. I would appreciate the specifics, or someone can be accused of mis-informing. Reading from the posts, it sounds like the sky is falling. Belive me, everyone would love to have the truth; but getting the half-truth won’t set you free, free of fear and deprivation of hope. To bring a complete balanced view of the market, it would be beneficial for the readers to access different viewpoints, to see both sides of the coin. Honestly speaking, who has the know-how and time to search and read all the posts? Newbies? Anyone here who has a full-time job and family life?

My comments were not meant to direct to anyone. I just believe readers need to know the fact, without serching and wasting valueable time reading rumors and speculations. If anyone were offended by my comments, then grow up; we live in a free world. Or maybe I forgot that someone actually own the board here.

Regarding the “pending inventory”, readers should be concerned if lenders dumped them all at once in the market. But what are the probability of this event? If they release those REOs in an oderly manner like they do today, I won’t worry.

With all the due respects, I still won’t call a caterpillar buttetrfly until it becomes one; just so not to confuse and mis-inform anyone.

Complete information requires knowledge of the backround and purpose of the dispenser of the information, so that one may determine if the informer has a bias or agenda. Anything less than full disclosure reveals intent to mislead or deceive. So, informed_decision, what do you do for a living?

 

[graphrix_IHB]

New Release: Monitoring Irvine Foreclosure Listings

Please see the first post for new data in August 2008.

Comment on “Shadow Inventory”: It normally takes months (probably 6 to 12) for pre-foreclosure properties NOD,NTS and REO to pass many legal hurdles before they hit the resale market. Some percentage of NODs and NTSs will be reinstated before Trustee’s Sale. Technically speaking, they can’t be counted as “inventory” until they are put on MLS, where most REO homes are marketed. Again, banks and asset managers are not in the business selling real estate; They ultimately hire brokers to do the selling. If brokers can’t sell certain properties, they end up in public auction.

For the love of gawd will you please read the foreclosure thread already? Your comments make it sound like we wouldn't have a clue about how long it takes to get from NOD to market. Maybe if you read the thread you would be a little more concerned about the coming inventory. BTW, the NOD to foreclosure ratio is running about 65% right now. Did you know that? You would if you read the foreclosure thread. Do yourself and everyone here a favor, get more informed about the info you can find here before you post, otherwise I will keep bagging on you until you show some respect and actually read up on who you are dealing with here.

Thanks for the truth about 65% conversion ratio on REO. Is it national average, or CA, OC, or just Irvine? Didn't they teach you we have 50 states. And with 50 states, you have 50 different markets. Even within Irvine, you have sub-segments of the local market. I would appreciate the specifics, or someone can be accused of mis-informing. Reading from the posts, it sounds like the sky is falling. Belive me, everyone would love to have the truth; but getting the half-truth won’t set you free, free of fear and deprivation of hope. To bring a complete balanced view of the market, it would be beneficial for the readers to access different viewpoints, to see both sides of the coin. Honestly speaking, who has the know-how and time to search and read all the posts? Newbies? Anyone here who has a full-time job and family life?

My comments were not meant to direct to anyone. I just believe readers need to know the fact, without serching and wasting valueable time reading rumors and speculations. If anyone were offended by my comments, then grow up; we live in a free world. Or maybe I forgot that someone actually own the board here.

Regarding the “pending inventory”, readers should be concerned if lenders dumped them all at once in the market. But what are the probability of this event? If they release those REOs in an oderly manner like they do today, I won’t worry.

With all the due respects, I still won’t call a caterpillar buttetrfly until it becomes one; just so not to confuse and mis-inform anyone.

The answers to all your questions could be found in the foreclosure thread, but like most Realtrolls you are too lazy to read up and become informed. If you are at all interested you could and should spend the time reading that thread. You don't have to read all the posts, but at least read the posts with the stats.

And you are totally hypocritical to say when people only get the half-truth, when you are not even giving 25% of the stats to make for complete truth. That, and how dare you insult me by saying people shouldn't believe the rumors and speculation. See, if you took the freakin time to read the foreclosure thread you would know that my stats are based on facts, and I am being nice in trying to help you understand that you don't provide nearly enough info for someone to make an informed decision. Your ignorance is insulting to me and probably many of readers. You look totally clueless as to what is really going on, and you will look even more foolish as long as you keep posting your stat missing data.

Now, don't respond until you have read the entire foreclosure thread. That is your homework assignment, so get cracking.

 

[SoCal78_IHB]

However, you may want to refrain from posting 'practical tips' until you have proven yourself as trustworthy to the community here.

Shark Bait - Hoo - Ha - Ha!

So you think the blog readers are as gullible as what-is-his-name? I don't know if you mean compliment or insult to them.

Ummm no. You got that a little backwards. When they were talking about proving yourself to the community here it reminded me of that "ring of fire" scene from Nemo. Whereas you are Nemo. Got it? I don't really appreciate you putting words in my mouth by saying I am calling them "gullible" and insulting my fellow bloggers. I have nothing but respect for the people here and I think they know that. (Just fyi you guys - I'm not "too new" here. I know some of you from the Lansner blog where I go by SoCal78 just fyi.)

 

[graphrix_IHB]

However, you may want to refrain from posting 'practical tips' until you have proven yourself as trustworthy to the community here.

Shark Bait - Hoo - Ha - Ha!

So you think the blog readers are as gullible as what-is-his-name? I don't know if you mean compliment or insult to them.

Ummm no. You got that a little backwards. When they were talking about proving yourself to the community here it reminded me of that "ring of fire" scene from Nemo. Whereas you are Nemo. Got it? I don't really appreciate you putting words in my mouth by saying I am calling them "gullible" and insulting my fellow bloggers. I have nothing but respect for the people here and I think they know that. (Just fyi you guys - I'm not "too new" here. I know some of you from the Lansner blog where I go by SoCal78 just fyi.)

Dude... you are SoCal78, huh? That is awesome! Glad to see you posting here, as I have always enjoyed your comments on Lansner's blog. Welcome to the nutter club.

 

[SoCal78_IHB]

However, you may want to refrain from posting 'practical tips' until you have proven yourself as trustworthy to the community here.

Shark Bait - Hoo - Ha - Ha!

So you think the blog readers are as gullible as what-is-his-name? I don't know if you mean compliment or insult to them.

Ummm no. You got that a little backwards. When they were talking about proving yourself to the community here it reminded me of that "ring of fire" scene from Nemo. Whereas you are Nemo. Got it? I don't really appreciate you putting words in my mouth by saying I am calling them "gullible" and insulting my fellow bloggers. I have nothing but respect for the people here and I think they know that. (Just fyi you guys - I'm not "too new" here. I know some of you from the Lansner blog where I go by SoCal78 just fyi.)

Dude... you are SoCal78, huh? That is awesome! Glad to see you posting here, as I have always enjoyed your comments on Lansner's blog. Welcome to the nutter club.

Thanks, graphix! Same to you. *noogies* That is a real compliment coming from a blogger of your caliber. ... hmm I wonder if we can alter our username. I should have thought to keep it the same.

 

[TeamworkHomes_IHB]

New Release: Monitoring Irvine Foreclosure Listings

Please see the first post for new data in August 2008.

Comment on “Shadow Inventory”: It normally takes months (probably 6 to 12) for pre-foreclosure properties NOD,NTS and REO to pass many legal hurdles before they hit the resale market. Some percentage of NODs and NTSs will be reinstated before Trustee’s Sale. Technically speaking, they can’t be counted as “inventory” until they are put on MLS, where most REO homes are marketed. Again, banks and asset managers are not in the business selling real estate; They ultimately hire brokers to do the selling. If brokers can’t sell certain properties, they end up in public auction.

For the love of gawd will you please read the foreclosure thread already? Your comments make it sound like we wouldn't have a clue about how long it takes to get from NOD to market. Maybe if you read the thread you would be a little more concerned about the coming inventory. BTW, the NOD to foreclosure ratio is running about 65% right now. Did you know that? You would if you read the foreclosure thread. Do yourself and everyone here a favor, get more informed about the info you can find here before you post, otherwise I will keep bagging on you until you show some respect and actually read up on who you are dealing with here.

Thanks for the truth about 65% conversion ratio on REO. Is it national average, or CA, OC, or just Irvine? Didn't they teach you we have 50 states. And with 50 states, you have 50 different markets. Even within Irvine, you have sub-segments of the local market. I would appreciate the specifics, or someone can be accused of mis-informing. Reading from the posts, it sounds like the sky is falling. Belive me, everyone would love to have the truth; but getting the half-truth won’t set you free, free of fear and deprivation of hope. To bring a complete balanced view of the market, it would be beneficial for the readers to access different viewpoints, to see both sides of the coin. Honestly speaking, who has the know-how and time to search and read all the posts? Newbies? Anyone here who has a full-time job and family life?

My comments were not meant to direct to anyone. I just believe readers need to know the fact, without serching and wasting valueable time reading rumors and speculations. If anyone were offended by my comments, then grow up; we live in a free world. Or maybe I forgot that someone actually own the board here.

Regarding the “pending inventory”, readers should be concerned if lenders dumped them all at once in the market. But what are the probability of this event? If they release those REOs in an oderly manner like they do today, I won’t worry.

With all the due respects, I still won’t call a caterpillar buttetrfly until it becomes one; just so not to confuse and mis-inform anyone.

The answers to all your questions could be found in the foreclosure thread, but like most Realtrolls you are too lazy to read up and become informed. If you are at all interested you could and should spend the time reading that thread. You don't have to read all the posts, but at least read the posts with the stats.

And you are totally hypocritical to say when people only get the half-truth, when you are not even giving 25% of the stats to make for complete truth. That, and how dare you insult me by saying people shouldn't believe the rumors and speculation. See, if you took the freakin time to read the foreclosure thread you would know that my stats are based on facts, and I am being nice in trying to help you understand that you don't provide nearly enough info for someone to make an informed decision. Your ignorance is insulting to me and probably many of readers. You look totally clueless as to what is really going on, and you will look even more foolish as long as you keep posting your stat missing data.

Now, don't respond until you have read the entire foreclosure thread. That is your homework assignment, so get cracking.

I see, you were making up a number "25% stats" to make you sound credible. The reason that there were missing data in my chart is because I just started tracking Active / Pending Listings in July 08; it was impossible to take a photo shot of past events. And I didn't want to make up data to make it sould credible. I guess you just have to learn to live with limited data and be patient not to jump to conclusion. What I were trying to do is simply point out that we need to have balanced data to see the whole picture of what are happening in the market. And I have added value to the board by supplying you and the readers supplemental data that no other person ever supplied here.

Now, to a buyer in the market for 3-bedroom detached homes in Irvine, how will your stats help him/her make an informed decision? How could you advocate anyone not to buy at all without first knowing his home perference and financial circumstance? It is like the blind leading the blind. Didn't you realize there are 50 states in the nation, and theese are 50 different real estate markets; even within City of Irvine, different price range of homes have different market dynamic.

I certainly didn't make any claim that anyone should buy a home regardless market condition and their own personal circumstances. That makes you hypocritical and self-righteous. You are using double standards. Why can't you trust the readers who apparently are as smart as you are? They know how to read and assimilate every bit of data and form their own independent thoughts.

As far as I am concerned, a little local, relevant, up-to-date targeted market data is far superior to general, vague, outdated data or what-if long-shot speculations. For those who want to see how 3 bedroom detached homes are doing in Irvine, here you go.

I sincerely didn't think anyone would get hurt by me just sharing my original research and making comments on other data's shortcoming. But if someone chooses to see the world as black or white, that would make him an egomaniac and control-freak. My best advice to him is: GROW UP, LET IT ME.

 

[graphrix_IHB]

You're right. You are smarter and more knowledgeable about the Irvine RE market than me because you have broker's license and access to the MLS. Yup, all my data is speculation, out dated, and national. I never post real time foreclosures in the Irvine market, I have no RE experience, and I am just a chicken little pollyanna. I know nothing about RE and I have never been right. It's not like in all 3000 plus posts of mine that I called the subprime bust back in March 2007. Nope, I'm not that smart and I don't have MLS access to have knowledge like that. Just like you I only pick out the months that favor my agenda, and I leave out Jan., Feb, and March, I also leave out the monthly break down of 2007 and 2006, because that would show people the real info. Gawd forbid anyone get complete info from a Realturd.

Here is my advice, read up and lose your ignorance. You obviously have absolutely no clue what I posted about. Your info has been posted here, and can be accessed by those who know who to ask, and those who know who to ask read the forums. You just come here posting your biased and ignorant info without reading anything. You can call it an ego all you want, but it is justified, just look at the post by SoCal78 right above yours. I have earned the respect of many readers here, and you are quickly losing respect. Like I have said before, you should show a little more respect to the readers here, and do your homework to see how truly ignorant you are, because I am not the only one who thinks you are ignorant.

 

[caycifish_IHB]

The reason that there were missing data in my chart is because I just started tracking Active / Pending Listings in July 08; it was impossible to take a photo shot of past events. And I didn’t want to make up data to make it sould credible. I guess you just have to learn to live with limited data and be patient not to jump to conclusion.

Note to self: come back to this thread in a year when the data becomes useful for YOY comparisons and trends can be seen.