New Irvine Home Sales in 2011

[iacrenter]

2010 turned out to be a pretty damn good year for TIC. They pretty much sold out their entire 2010 Collection in less than a year (they projected 18-24 months). Their presales at Los Altos was 25% and Capistrano at 20% even before the models even opened up!

With so much success in 2010, I am sure TIC is confident their 2011 Collection will be well received. It also means they are probably moving up their time table for future villages--Laguna Altura, Cypress Village, maybe even Orchard Hills.

So how do you think TIC will fair in 2011? What factors do you think will affect new homes sales in Irvine?

You can read the TIC PR machine-- i.e. OC Register article by Lanser and watch the video of Dan Young:
http://www.ocregister.com/articles/irvine-276833-home-homes.html
http://lansner.ocregister.com/2010/11/19/how-irvine-co-beat-the-homebuilding-odds/89136/

 

[test]

I vote yes, but due to none of the above.  It's because you have an endless supply of asian cash buyers that want to congregate in Irvine.

 

[locolocal]

I would be so mad if I were reading that article (especially if I lived out-of-state) and booked a family vacation to Irvine.  I can't believe she left out the Orange Balloon, though. 

I love some of the comments:

      Really? 17 hours ago
      Never knew it was so close to Huntington Beach and I know that's a fun place to visit, I will check it out.
       
      youdo 17 hours ago
      You make it once again sound so interesting Sheila, thanks
       
      neverthought 17 hours ago
      I never thought it had so much there, good to know.
       
 

 

[iacrenter]

So it looks like IR posted on his IHB this morning: OC Sales Falling, Prices to Follow
http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/blog/comments/orange-county-sales-falling-prices-to-follow/

Most of the blog seems directed at resales but he added this part for new home sales:

"the median price of a newly built home decreased 1.1 percent.

I thought the Irvine Company was increasing prices and building even more homes. That isn't what the statistics are saying."

I am sure this feeds into IHO's theory about how Irvine is immune to the housing recession, but other evidence suggests TIC was able to sell the 2010 Collection despite raising prices in successive phases. So far most people in the poll seem to think TIC will continue their success into 2011.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Yeah... that comment was a bit shady, here was my response:

IrvineRenter:

    ?the median price of a newly built home decreased 1.1 percent.?

    I thought the Irvine Company was increasing prices and building even more homes. That isn?t what the statistics are saying.

Wow? I?m surprised you tried to pull this.

Not only is that statistic not directly relevant (lower median price could just mean more homes were built at below the median) but you are trying to tie overall statistics to what is factually happening in Irvine. Take almost any tract in the 2010 New Home Collection, look at Phase 1 pricing and then look at the last phase (I say ?last? because almost every tract has SOLD THROUGH). If you don?t think they raised prices? check the batteries on your abacus.

As for increasing building? Stonegate East is selling, Portola Springs is expanding, Cypress Village, Laguna Altera, Stonegate and Orchard Hills are on deck.

Maybe if you drove around and looked at the projects, you could see all the activity. Why don?t you write an article on how well the New Home Collection did despite all the doom and gloom going on every where else. Your blog could benefit from some different perspective once in a while.

And by the way? this doesn?t mean Irvine is totally immune. I do notice lots of softening in the resale market, especially the older homes and the inflated ones sold during the boom? but the declines just aren?t as bad as other places.

I've been tracking Woodbury and Quail Hill, the projects that were built during the boom years and there are some significant drops. Some of the Rosemoor homes are selling below what they sold for back then... and many of the condo projects in QH are getting close to their 03/04 prices. The SFRs in QH, however, are still very stubborn.

 

[iacrenter]

Yeah... that comment was a bit shady, here was my response:

IrvineRenter:

    ?the median price of a newly built home decreased 1.1 percent.?

    I thought the Irvine Company was increasing prices and building even more homes. That isn?t what the statistics are saying.

Wow? I?m surprised you tried to pull this.

Not only is that statistic not directly relevant (lower median price could just mean more homes were built at below the median) but you are trying to tie overall statistics to what is factually happening in Irvine. Take almost any tract in the 2010 New Home Collection, look at Phase 1 pricing and then look at the last phase (I say ?last? because almost every tract has SOLD THROUGH). If you don?t think they raised prices? check the batteries on your abacus.

As for increasing building? Stonegate East is selling, Portola Springs is expanding, Cypress Village, Laguna Altera, Stonegate and Orchard Hills are on deck.

Maybe if you drove around and looked at the projects, you could see all the activity. Why don?t you write an article on how well the New Home Collection did despite all the doom and gloom going on every where else. Your blog could benefit from some different perspective once in a while.

And by the way? this doesn?t mean Irvine is totally immune. I do notice lots of softening in the resale market, especially the older homes and the inflated ones sold during the boom? but the declines just aren?t as bad as other places.

I've been tracking Woodbury and Quail Hill, the projects that were built during the boom years and there are some significant drops. Some of the Rosemoor homes are selling below what they sold for back then... and many of the condo projects in QH are getting close to their 03/04 prices. The SFRs in QH, however, are still very stubborn.

Most of the traditional type SFR residences in QH are in the Jumbo/non-conforming price points. Banks loathe unloading these homes given the current marketplace. Unless there is an uptick in supply (i.e. shadow inventory) hitting the market, prices will probably stay flat.

 

[locolocal]

I wish the old Irvinehousingblog forums were still active.  I would love to see how the housing bears would explain the success of the new Irvine housing subdivisions and small percentages of foreclosures in the city.

Everyone kept on saying that 2010 would mean those Alt-A loans would explode.  They said that interest rates would be double the 2007-2008 rates and all of Irvine would be underwater.

Yeah, I am exaggerating, but so what?  They were exaggerating also.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Well... some of those bears are on OCR. I double dog dare you to ask them.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

So Mr. locallocal took me up on my dare and posted his question over on OCR. To which, BK's response was:

Larry is a smart guy and he does know his theory and the typical market dynamic for many places. Irvine is an unusual market with counter balance forces. Even the sharpest like Larry could missed his marks.

Like I said years ago: $375/sf, Bag O Chips, Triplexes, Duplexes, driveway-less, yard-less and value village are becoming so real.

The theory is to starve the "prisoners" eventually when the warden feeds them poops and they will be happy campers. This is obviously my metaphor to depict future products. Give consumers a "driveway" treat and they will roll over like a dog regardless of how disgusting the food looks in the bowl.

Offer some free treats and that will draw a large pack and all of sudden even the pickiest dog will settle and quickly devour food previously ignored.

So much of it is tooling with the psychology of the consumers confidence and perception. High budget PR and marketing effort are crucial in the convincing phase like "5,000 shoppers came to preview". Asian psyche is "I have to be first and being second is not good enough". Since so many people showed up then it got to be good.

Places of high Asian population such as Fremont, San Ramon, Cupertino, Dublin, San Jose, Campbell, and Irvine the consumer behavior after each recession have been consistent. Just like the way Asians drive a car it is universally consistent with striking similarities even when they reside in different cities. I have been around for several cycles and witnessed the same phenomenon that Asian communities rarely trend with text book theory.

AV, Ladera Ranch, Lake forest, and surrounding vicinities are fairly Irvine adjacent but still facing a hard time rebounding out of the trench due to an absence of Asian popularity.

http://www.ocreader.com/forum/viewtopic.php?p=12710#p12710

The problem is... according to his homie Lane... there is no such thing as FCBs. Although my own eyes tell me different after being in Irvine all these years and the number of foreign businesses has risen (both Asian and Middle Eastern)... I find it hard that Mr. Meyer still thinks as much.

Maybe he'll respond to locallocal's post... maybe not. The last time they talked about Irvine housing was when the New Home Collection went up and they were insulting the quality and how the homes won't sell through and how no one will buy them come the fall/winter. Well... they were partly right... no one can buy them this fall/winter... BECAUSE THEY SOLD OUT.

 

[locolocal]

As I remember the old forums, BK was one of the few who were actually able to understand and predict the Irvine housing market.

 

[usctrojancpa]

When are those Sevilla models opening up?

 

[kayochan]

When are those Sevilla models opening up?

Yeah, I was wondering the same thing...I thought they were supposed to open up late 2010 (like right now)...from what I recall, weren't Ironwood and Sevilla supposed to open sometime in Nov 2010?

 

[irvineresident]

From TIC's website for Sevilla... "Onsite Sales Begin January 8th, 2011! Model Grand Opening January 22nd, 2011!"

Ironwood should be about a month or so later as they started building the models at least a month later than Sevilla.

 

[akula1488]

We actually walked by the Sevilla models this weekend. The exterior is mostly done. Plan 1 is in the middle and is kind odd that outside its great room window you are looking at neighbors (plan 2)'s side yard. The back yard is tiny (2~3 feet deep!?) and most of the yard is the side yard. It is kind of interesting the 3 models are on the raised ground. From the layout it looks like  the motor court is made up of 6 homes (6 plex, 2 rows of 3 homes), with garages all facing each other. Plan 2 are the ones which garage door and living room door entrance are not on the same side...and that's probably why plan 2's are located on the outside of the motor court, with their front doors facing the outside street to give some curb appeal. Plan 3's are tucked inside with larger yard.

Sevilla reminds me more of detached condo's rather than SFR. Not sure whether they got decent drive ways or not.

The Ironwood model is close by (on the same street) and you can see the exterior is not quite done yet. So a month apart is about right.

Lastly, the Ironwood and Sevilla models are located at the area right next to 261. But 261 is high and away and the noise is not really a problem.

 

[IndieDev]

 

[irvinehomeowner]

All I can think is "poor horse".

 

[IndieDev]

Buy now or be priced out! 

 

[IndieDev]

If you really love Irvine, you should put some full offers on some good ol' Woodbury townhomes. In the case of a multiple offer scenario, always try to outbid the competition by adding 15% more to your offer. This is Irvine, a city immune to interest rates, excess inventory,  unemployment, and just about any other market indicator under the sun. Everyone wants to live here.

 

[IndieDev]

That is true for Woodbury East, but not for Woodbury.

There are too many extend and pretend HELOC abuses in Woodbury.

The fall of the Woodbury facade is near.

No way dude. Real estate always goes up in Irvine.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Dibs on best man!