New DQnews october #s

Hormiguero_IHB

Hormiguero_IHB

New member
<a href="http://www.dqnews.com/News/California/Southern-CA/RRSCA081118.aspx">300K on the nose, with sales up 2/3 y-o-y </a>



Just think, one more San Berdu REO and we would be at 299,999.99! Or something like that...
 
"foreclosures once again accounted for half of all resales"



And the other half were distressed properties on their way to foreclosure.
 
[quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1227097674]"foreclosures once again accounted for half of all resales"



And the other half were distressed properties on their way to foreclosure.</blockquote>


R U serious?



Really, are they really?
 
<a href="http://www.nwrealestate.com/nwrpub/common/mktg.html">Washington State also checks in with October #s</a>



For some reasons condos are actually positive y-o-y in King County... perhaps the old cliche about "first to fall" isn't always true.
 
[quote author="no_vaseline" date=1227100289][quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1227097674]"foreclosures once again accounted for half of all resales"



And the other half were distressed properties on their way to foreclosure.</blockquote>


R U serious?



Really, are they really?</blockquote>


I search through the property records every day. About half are short sales or REOs, and the other half, the half they are classifying as organic, almost always has mortgage equity withdrawal and a significant increase in their mortgage balance. These properties do not meet the strict definition of "distressed," but the only reason these people are selling is because they either cannot afford their current payment, or they know they will not be able to afford their future payment. It is very, very rare that I come across a property that the owner has not added to their mortgage. Those people who did not add to their mortgage and are in no way distressed are not trying to sell right now. I imagine most of them believe that prices will recover soon and they should not sell while prices are low.
 
I long suspected that to be the case, but I don't have access to the same dataset you do that would allow me to confirm it on my own.



Thanks for saving me a couple of weeks of legwork in one post.
 
"Those people who did not add to their mortgage and are in no way distressed are not trying to sell right now. I imagine most of them believe that prices will recover soon and they should not sell while prices are low."



For what it's worth - with the house I just sold, I had not added to my mortgage and was in no way distressed. I had an easy 30 year fixed.... yet I witnessed what was going on around me and it was enough to let panic set in... that either I committed to that house long-term or I had to get out NOW while there was still a fair amount of equity left. Problem was, as this home was in San Berdoo, it was not purchased because we liked it there - it was purchased because it was the only affordable SFR compared to O.C. There could be others like me who have comfortable payments but have a sense of urgency... then again, they probably don't sit and stare at the MLS every day like I did for months leading up to the sale so maybe they are clueless!
 
[quote author="SoCal78" date=1227172034]"Those people who did not add to their mortgage and are in no way distressed are not trying to sell right now. I imagine most of them believe that prices will recover soon and they should not sell while prices are low."



For what it's worth - with the house I just sold, I had not added to my mortgage and was in no way distressed. I had an easy 30 year fixed.... yet I witnessed what was going on around me and it was enough to let panic set in... that either I committed to that house long-term or I had to get out NOW while there was still a fair amount of equity left. Problem was, as this home was in San Berdoo, it was not purchased because we liked it there - it was purchased because it was the only affordable SFR compared to O.C. There could be others like me who have comfortable payments but have a sense of urgency... then again, they probably don't sit and stare at the MLS every day like I did for months leading up to the sale so maybe they are clueless!</blockquote>


I have run across several houses for sale where the owners are retirees. They have had the homes for 20-30 years. Their mortgage balances are a tiny portion of the list price. We looked at one a couple of weeks ago, outstanding loan balance is about $175k, list price $1.6 million. Probably would actually sell for $1.2 million. Even at that price, they would clear about a million dollars.



When I look at the house in Malibu which have actually sold in the past few months, plenty of foreclosures and short sales. There are also a lot of homes which have been for sale since 2006 or 2007. They went from looking for a big profit, to being short sales, to being foreclosures. Chased the market all the way down.
 
[quote author="SoCal78" date=1227172034]"Those people who did not add to their mortgage and are in no way distressed are not trying to sell right now. I imagine most of them believe that prices will recover soon and they should not sell while prices are low."



For what it's worth - with the house I just sold, I had not added to my mortgage and was in no way distressed. I had an easy 30 year fixed.... yet I witnessed what was going on around me and it was enough to let panic set in... that either I committed to that house long-term or I had to get out NOW while there was still a fair amount of equity left. Problem was, as this home was in San Berdoo, it was not purchased because we liked it there - it was purchased because it was the only affordable SFR compared to O.C. There could be others like me who have comfortable payments but have a sense of urgency... then again, they probably don't sit and stare at the MLS every day like I did for months leading up to the sale so maybe they are clueless!</blockquote>


Berdoo in the house! Wow, you had equity left in a Berdoo place?! You must have bought it a while ago. The house I grew up in there during my later childhood years sold for $375K at peak, went REO, and finally got sold by the bank for $170K recently.



Where was your place at?
 
IPO:



<a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Chino/6764-Bradford-Ct-91710/home/4046307">This </a>was the house I sold.



On average, only 1 in 74 Chino homes in this price range were closing per month from the beginning of the year to the month I sold. Counting my blessings.
 
[quote author="SoCal78" date=1227231006]IPO:



<a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Chino/6764-Bradford-Ct-91710/home/4046307">This </a>was the house I sold.



On average, only 1 in 74 Chino homes in this price range were closing per month from the beginning of the year to the month I sold. Counting my blessings.</blockquote>


Ah okay, you were talking Berdoo county, and I was talking the city of. Riverside and Euclid huh... Not a horrible area. Looks like your same model has price dropped to $299K and still can't get sold. I think low $200s is very possible in that area for your old place.



I was thinking <a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Bernardino/216-E-34th-St-92404/home/3169753">you sold something like this.</a> These poor sellers have dropped list on this place 66% from $279K to $94K over the past 18 months... Ouch. I shot my prom pictures in front of this house in '87.
 
Oh, ok. So you lived WAY out there.



The numbers there don't show the full story. My buyers used a DPA program (it was legal then.) We had to kick back a lot of money. The actual sales price, not including that, came to $285k. Ouch! So that sales figure is artificially inflated. Luckily, having owned that house for 5 years, our mortgage balance was about $100k less than the (real) sales price, so thankfully we were able to walk away with some spare change. Our timing could have been better. I'm left with the what-if's. But I console myself by saying it also could have been much, much worse. We cut our neighbors off at the knees in terms of pricing. We made upgrades (paid for with cash, no HELOC.) Strategized to sell during spring / peak season. Staged the house. Had two offers the first day on the market - both full price and one of them an all cash offer. That guy got cold feet and so did the other one. Got worried but had three more offers roll in but two of them very low. Picked the DPA couple (the highest of the 3), offer accepted within a week of listing and closed in 30 days. Some of our competition back then is still sitting on the market today. God bless the IHB. Score one for the home team! (Hadn't found the forums yet but was reading the blog, chatting with some of you in Lansner's comments section, watching a high dosage of HGTV, and keeping a close eye on neighborhood activity through the MLS.)



Maybe you will go back and scoop up your old childhood home??
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1227232582]

I was thinking <a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Bernardino/216-E-34th-St-92404/home/3169753">you sold something like this.</a> </blockquote>


Does a swamp cooler on the roof constitute "air conditioning"?
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1227232582]



Ah okay, you were talking Berdoo county, and I was talking the city of. Riverside and Euclid huh... Not a horrible area. Looks like your same model has price dropped to $299K and still can't get sold. I think low $200s is very possible in that area for your old place.



I was thinking <a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Bernardino/216-E-34th-St-92404/home/3169753">you sold something like this.</a> These poor sellers have dropped list on this place 66% from $279K to $94K over the past 18 months... Ouch. I shot my prom pictures in front of this house in '87.</blockquote>


Must have been a tight squeeze. How many were living there? What brought you out to Orange County? (I'll assume work!)
 
[quote author="SoCal78" date=1227236859][quote author="ipoplaya" date=1227232582]



Ah okay, you were talking Berdoo county, and I was talking the city of. Riverside and Euclid huh... Not a horrible area. Looks like your same model has price dropped to $299K and still can't get sold. I think low $200s is very possible in that area for your old place.



I was thinking <a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Bernardino/216-E-34th-St-92404/home/3169753">you sold something like this.</a> These poor sellers have dropped list on this place 66% from $279K to $94K over the past 18 months... Ouch. I shot my prom pictures in front of this house in '87.</blockquote>


Must have been a tight squeeze. How many were living there? What brought you out to Orange County? (I'll assume work!)</blockquote>


This place was my girlfriend's house. Definitely didn't have AC back then. We lived in a bigger place (1800sf) a few miles away. My GF, her sister and mom (divorced) lived in this house for ages. There was stuff all over the place...



I think the OC is the preferred destination for Berdooky types if they are lucky enough to get out. Two of my high school friends live in Irvine and one is down in Laguna Hills.
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1227232582]Ah okay, you were talking Berdoo county, and I was talking the city of. Riverside and Euclid huh... Not a horrible area. Looks like your same model has price dropped to $299K and still can't get sold. I think low $200s is very possible in that area for your old place.



I was thinking <a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Bernardino/216-E-34th-St-92404/home/3169753">you sold something like this.</a> These poor sellers have dropped list on this place 66% from $279K to $94K over the past 18 months... Ouch. I shot my prom pictures in front of this house in '87.</blockquote>


I knew I recognized that place! Here is a pic of Ipo, Deuce, and AZDavid (before the falling out and him abandoning them to live in Peenix) from that prom. Ipo rocks the red, but Deuce's gray mu mu is something I am sure he regrets to this day. Sucks for him that the pic is all over the intarwebs.



http://media.ebaumsworld.com/picture/Ryan1966/q.jpg
 
[quote author="no_vaseline" date=1227275504]I'd give you grief for 'no love' but I took the picture.</blockquote>


I had some sweet jheri curl going that day let me tell ya... The activator was dripping all up and down my cane.
 
[quote author="graphrix" date=1227274629]I knew I recognized that place! Here is a pic of Ipo, Deuce, and AZDavid (before the falling out and him abandoning them to live in Peenix) from that prom. Ipo rocks the red, but Deuce's gray mu mu is something I am sure he regrets to this day. Sucks for him that the pic is all over the intarwebs.</blockquote>


I snapped a pic of you bustin' your moves there Cakes. It was prom dude, I know it was in Ontario, but you really should have dressed up a little more...



<img src="http://princessrunner.com/wp-content/uploads/2007/11/urkel.jpg" alt="" />
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1227284001][quote author="graphrix" date=1227274629]I knew I recognized that place! Here is a pic of Ipo, Deuce, and AZDavid (before the falling out and him abandoning them to live in Peenix) from that prom. Ipo rocks the red, but Deuce's gray mu mu is something I am sure he regrets to this day. Sucks for him that the pic is all over the intarwebs.</blockquote>


I snapped a pic of you bustin' your moves there Cakes. It was prom dude, I know it was in Ontario, but you really should have dressed up a little more...



<img src="http://princessrunner.com/wp-content/uploads/2007/11/urkel.jpg" alt="" /></blockquote>


Nice try with the Urkel reference, but I think you used that one on Tenmagnet and it failed miserably, like it is here.



You see, I am an OC native, and back then we had our 909 visas. They had a limited amount of visits we could have into the 909, and by the time prom rolled around I had already exceeded them by going boarding up in big bear. So there was no way I could have possibly been in Ontario then. In fact, I didn't know Ontario existed until I found out the builder I worked for had a project there in 2004. I was also shocked to find out there was an airport there, that could be an easy and quick getaway to Vegas around the same time. Having that kind of modern technology is something us OCer's continue to be amazed about you 909er's.



What was more disturbing was seeing you, as a claimed Laker fan, in this Blazers outfit from the year before...



http://wallstreetjackass.typepad.com/raptureready/images/ghetto_prom2.jpg



There are many other pics of you in anti-Laker outfits, and I am beginning to question your true loyalty to the Lakers. But... then again, I have been told to never trust a 909er when it comes to sports. I bet you became an Angel fan starting in 2002. Even though you never suffered the pain that I did in 86, as I watched Hendu clock one off Donnie Moore. Dude... I was there... I have actually been there to suffer the pain. I have been to the Forum to watch the Lakers fold. Time to pony up 909 boy, you need to truly become loyal, and you need to improve on your snark. I know it was late, so I will let slide and have a second chance, but if it isn't good... then I am posting the pic of you in the Pacers outfit.
 
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