New communities in Portola Springs

irvinehomeowner said:
With stock market rising... there could be a case to put your 20% into investments and rent.

It just depends on what you want to do.

For those who want to move up, you could cash out now, invest, rent and then buy again later when rates are lower... but there is the capital gains tax (I'm sure many are over $500k at these prices)... so maybe many are staying put and hoping that a change in legislation to capital gains will be more favorable and cash out later.
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It's true that you could earn equity in the stock market also. And I do prefer liquid assets. However, there will be capital gains tax, as opposed to $500k tax exemption from selling a home later on. Most of the current gains are less than $500k.

As for cashing out now and buying later when the rates are lower, are we forgetting the Irvine pain? Isn't it better to buy now at a "higher (according to the fool Liar)" price than waiting till rates drop and buy at a "lower (again, according to the fool Liar)"? Like I've always said, you can refinance your loan, but you can't refinance the price.

As Martin and I have pointed out, inventory levels won't change much in the near future, but lower rates means more buyers from the sidelines coming back in, creating more bids. Irvine housing prices will continue to climb until most buyers are priced out. With the Chinese cash coming in, that will take some time.
 
My post above was for 2 cases... first time buyer (which is probably close to impossible in Irvine) and the move-up buyer.

For anyone young, time is on your side so get what you can afford and hope to move up but know you could be there for many years.

You could rent, but renting isn't that cheap in Irvine either.

For move-up buyers, I think it really depends. Even from just 5 years ago... prices have skyrocketed so even a lateral move will cost more.

If you have bought in the last 3 years... unless you are Calbears, you may want to wait just because rates are so high... but again... if you can afford it, you are in a stable position and the home is really what you want/need, any time is a good time to buy. :)

Plus buying new has the benefits of no bidding (although there are wait lists) and getting the exact floorplan/location you want. Everyone says you can do that with resale too but that's harder than it sounds. It took us several years to find our last resale home as it's very hard to balance location, floorplan, micro location, features and price in the resale market.
 
OCtoSV said:
Dude - why are banks going to magically compress spreads that are already 250bps over the 10 yr right now for the best borrowers? 4% rates were before SVB went belly up over duration risk from low interest jumbo mortgages. I know a CRE license carries no fiduciary reqs but you're doing your clients a disservice if you're telling them with all your knowledge and experience and degrees and understanding of Irvine RE and the mortgage markets that they'll ever see a 4 handle; that or you really don't have a clue as to how the Fed is managing their balance sheet and how likely that dot plot is to end up really happening. Even if Powell actually comes through with an election year rate cut for Crooked Joe mortgage lenders aren't going to drop their spreads. If anything I see them going higher. Basel 3 is going to be very impactful here as well.
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How are we going to pay the debt otherwise? You need to inflate it away. Rates are coming down. Maybe not next year, but for sure in the next 24 months.
 
irvinehomeowner said:
My post above was for 2 cases... first time buyer (which is probably close to impossible in Irvine) and the move-up buyer.

For anyone young, time is on your side so get what you can afford and hope to move up but know you could be there for many years.

You could rent, but renting isn't that cheap in Irvine either.

For move-up buyers, I think it really depends. Even from just 5 years ago... prices have skyrocketed so even a lateral move will cost more.

If you have bought in the last 3 years... unless you are Calbears, you may want to wait just because rates are so high... but again... if you can afford it, you are in a stable position and the home is really what you want/need, any time is a good time to buy. :)

Plus buying new has the benefits of no bidding (although there are wait lists) and getting the exact floorplan/location you want. Everyone says you can do that with resale too but that's harder than it sounds. It took us several years to find our last resale home as it's very hard to balance location, floorplan, micro location, features and price in the resale market.
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I don't disagree that move-up buyers can wait if they're looking for resale homes, unless they find one that they really love. Otherwise, there's no restrictions on those.

Our case is special, so we can't wait. We only want to buy new constructions and my wife wants to stay in PS, so we had no choice but to buy right now and bite the bullet on high interest rates. It's gonna be for just a couple of years anyway. Rate are coming down and the Fed will start cutting rates in the second half of 2024. I don't believe those "experts" who think the Fed will start cutting in March, but July is very likely.
 
ThirtySomethingWEquity said:
How are we going to pay the debt otherwise? You need to inflate it away. Rates are coming down. Maybe not next year, but for sure in the next 24 months.
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seriously? You nust listen to guys like Kiyosaki or crypto podcasts. Try listening to something a little more informed like the All In podcast. avg int rate on the debt is still under 3%. Medicare and SS will get means testing implemented and retirement age raised, likely by Trump as a lame duck so he can save a future Republican from needing to wrestle that political alligator. You'll also see the SS income limit eliminated ($160K today), all SALT deductions eliminated, 1031s eliminated, lower taxes on long term cap gains eliminated, along with corp and personal tax rates cut to boost growth. Without reduced govt spending and increased revenue interest rates will need to remain where they are to support future Treasury issuance.
 
OCtoSV said:
Dude - why are banks going to magically compress spreads that are already 250bps over the 10 yr right now for the best borrowers? 4% rates were before SVB went belly up over duration risk from low interest jumbo mortgages. I know a CRE license carries no fiduciary reqs but you're doing your clients a disservice if you're telling them with all your knowledge and experience and degrees and understanding of Irvine RE and the mortgage markets that they'll ever see a 4 handle; that or you really don't have a clue as to how the Fed is managing their balance sheet and how likely that dot plot is to end up really happening. Even if Powell actually comes through with an election year rate cut for Crooked Joe mortgage lenders aren't going to drop their spreads. If anything I see them going higher. Basel 3 is going to be very impactful here as well.
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I stand by my predication that rates will get into the 4s at some point in the future. Why? Because all of the funny money and gov't cheese will have expired and growth will decline and we may even experience a recession so the Fed will be forced to cut more rates to 2-3%. The longer that rates stay higher, the lower transaction volume will be for lenders and they know that. At some point, there will be a lender that cuts that spread and the rest will follow to not lose the majority of their business.
 
usctrojancpa said:
I stand by my predication that rates will get into the 4s at some point in the future. Why? Because all of the funny money and gov't cheese will have expired and growth will decline and we may even experience a recession so the Fed will be forced to cut more rates to 2-3%. The longer that rates stay higher, the lower transaction volume will be for lenders and they know that. At some point, there will be a lender that cuts that spread and the rest will follow to not lose the majority of their business.
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We may not see 3s again, but definitely 4s, probably as soon as end of 2025. That's when I'll refinance.
 
All these predictions of where rates will go in the next couple of years are meaningless.

I honestly don’t think we should be cutting rates. Home values aren’t dropping at all even when you account for inflation and spending is still happening. Unemployment is still very low. Lowering rates at this point would only cause inflation to get out of control.
 
usctrojancpa said:
I stand by my predication that rates will get into the 4s at some point in the future. Why? Because all of the funny money and gov't cheese will have expired and growth will decline and we may even experience a recession so the Fed will be forced to cut more rates to 2-3%. The longer that rates stay higher, the lower transaction volume will be for lenders and they know that. At some point, there will be a lender that cuts that spread and the rest will follow to not lose the majority of their business.
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First, thanks for being willing to debate. You are the undisupted most knowledgeable person here on Irvine RE. Your inventory call was one for the ages.

You really need to re-exanine your understanding of how the Powell Fed operates as it's very differnt from the Yellen or Bernanke Fed - miles different. But you're not alone - one of the Fed Govs called out the financial media on this. Growth is not declining and we're ushering in the first elements of AI-driven productivity, similar to the rise of the PC as a biz tool. You also need to get smart on the impact of Basel 3 on mortgage pricing and banks desire to be in the mortgage biz. You owe it to your clients to give them an accurately informed view of where mortgage rates could be headed. You've been wrong so far on rates and you were wrong on the stock market, though you said you reversed your net short position so hopefully that has performed well for you.

Bottom line: we finally after 20+ years have "normal" interest rates, and if the most aggressive bond bull calls come true we'll see a disinversion and a 3.75 10 yr, and maybe a 5.75% 30 yr. The recession continues to be the most elusive in history and even if we get 3 rate cuts the FF rate will still be at 4.5%. Plus don't discount the Yen carry trade coming to an end and our biggest Treasury customer slowing purchases. Lots of forces at play but Powell is the LOTR.
 
CalBears96 said:
As for cashing out now and buying later when the rates are lower, are we forgetting the Irvine pain? Isn't it better to buy now at a "higher (according to the fool Liar)" price than waiting till rates drop and buy at a "lower (again, according to the fool Liar)"? Like I've always said, you can refinance your loan, but you can't refinance the price.
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I'm not sure what you're talking about here. I advised you against buying Bluffs 2 and you've proven me right by buying Cielo 1.5 years later. You would have saved 2x closing costs, expensive upgrades, moving expenses, lower monthly cost, etc. The smart financial move would have been to wait to buy what your REALLY wanted and put those savings towards the new house.
 
Do you REALLY think the FED exist to support and help the middle class and the poor? Many think the 2020 crash is from COVID, that's a laugh too. Powell is another tool for the RICH club. When assets price falter and affect them, he will follow orders.
 
Liar Loan said:
I'm not sure what you're talking about here. I advised you against buying Bluffs 2 and you've proven me right by buying Cielo 1.5 years later. You would have saved 2x closing costs, expensive upgrades, moving expenses, lower monthly cost, etc. The smart financial move would have been to wait to buy what your REALLY wanted and put those savings towards the new house.
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if I recall correctly, Calbears is mostly interested in one particular lot in Cielo. and he was not able to afford later phases (prior to his RSUs hit ATH) so better to have one bird in hand because no guarantee he could get his dream home.
 
Liar Loan said:
I'm not sure what you're talking about here. I advised you against buying Bluffs 2 and you've proven me right by buying Cielo 1.5 years later. You would have saved 2x closing costs, expensive upgrades, moving expenses, lower monthly cost, etc. The smart financial move would have been to wait to buy what your REALLY wanted and put those savings towards the new house.
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Are you really that DUMB in not realizing how wrong you were? Your advise was REALLY REALLY bad. Let me explain to you how dumb you are to think that your advise was good.

Including all the expensive upgrades and stuff, the total cost of my Bluffs 2 comes out to around $1.8M. I probably could sell it for $2.3M. Minus the commission and closing costs, I would stand to gain maybe $350k. I sold my Eastvale home for $950k. Zillow is currently estimating it at $970k. Basically, Eastvale doesn't see any appreciation while Irvine has seen a huge appreciation since I bought. You're the only dumbass who thinks that Irvine hasn't appreciated since Dec 2021.

The thing is, you don't know what any of us is talking about because you have no clue how the Irvine housing market works. Like at all.
 
CalBears96 said:
Are you really that DUMB in not realizing how wrong you were? Your advise was REALLY REALLY bad. Let me explain to you how dumb you are to think that your advise was good.

Including all the expensive upgrades and stuff, the total cost of my Bluffs 2 comes out to around $1.8M. I probably could sell it for $2.3M. Minus the commission and closing costs, I would stand to gain maybe $350k. I sold my Eastvale home for $950k. Zillow is currently estimating it at $970k. Basically, Eastvale doesn't see any appreciation while Irvine has seen a huge appreciation since I bought. You're the only dumbass who thinks that Irvine hasn't appreciated since Dec 2021.

The thing is, you don't know what any of us is talking about because you have no clue how the Irvine housing market works. Like at all.
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How much has Cielo appreciated since you bought Bluffs 2? By less than $350k?
 
Liar Loan said:
How much has Cielo appreciated since you bought Bluffs 2? By less than $350k?
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Cielo didn't come out until AFTER I've moved into Bluffs, moron. I bought Bluffs in Dec 2021 and close escrow in May 2022. Cielo came out July 2022. The housing market peaked in April/May 2022. I sold my Eastvale home in September when the housing market dipped a little, but still for a good price.

You really are clueless, aren't you? Bluffs appreciated with Cielo BECAUSE both are in Irvine. If I hadn't bought Bluffs I would see Cielo appreciate while my Eastvale home is stuck in the mud. Use your damn brain, moron.
 
CalBears96 said:
Cielo didn't come out until AFTER I've moved into Bluffs, moron. I bought Bluffs in Dec 2021 and close escrow in May 2022. Cielo came out July 2022. The housing market peaked in April/May 2022. I sold my Eastvale home in September when the housing market dipped a little, but still for a good price.

You really are clueless, aren't you? Bluffs appreciated with Cielo BECAUSE both are in Irvine. If I hadn't bought Bluffs I would see Cielo appreciate while my Eastvale home is stuck in the mud. Use your damn brain, moron.
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You didn't answer my question. It's too painful I know.

Check out my comment on the $500k cap gain exclusion thread in case you have me on ignore. It will save you some money potentially.
 
Liar Loan said:
You didn't answer my question. It's too painful I know.

Check out my comment on the $500k cap gain exclusion thread in case you have me on ignore. It will save you some money potentially.
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Answer what question? I don't understand your point about "painful".

To answer your question, when Cielo grand opened in July 2022, Cielo Plan 1's base price was around $2.2M-$2.3M for Phase 1. I bought it at $2.55M for Phase 7. So it appreciated at most $350k. Because I bought Bluffs, I was able to break even with the appreciation. Had I not bought Bluffs, my Eastvale home could not have kept up with the appreciation.

Do you understand the pain I would have felt had gone straight from my Eastvale home to Cielo?
 
OCtoSV said:
You mean one can live in Artesia or Norwalk and send your kid to Whitney? What a edu-hack!
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Unfortunately no, Whitney's admissions is fairly tight and requires ABC Unified residency:

You can however apply for other schools in ABC school district, including Cerritos High School via inter-district permit. The process takes time so apply early, intra-district transfers may have priority over inter-district transfers.

Also, Artesia is actually in ABC Unified district, so if you live there you can apply for Whitney. Parts of Norwalk are also within ABC Unified:
 
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