needs to be asked every year...what are the indications for 2017?

N

noMoneyBackin2011

Member
first time buyer; didn't have a downpayment back in the day.  Today i can do 20-25% on 650K, and came across willow in PS.

as I did some research, I saw that pricing for willow has gone up quite a bit.  That led to something bigger: the huge massive increase in pricing the past few years.  I'd kill for that pricing.

What could have been purchased for 650K in 2014 is so much more than what you can get today.

Are we looking at a bad time to buy?  Are there any interesting indications, or am I just another N+1 asking for a crystal ball?
 
qwerty said:
Bad time to buy.
Click to expand...

Could be.

Though with this nationalist movement there will definitely be more jobs coming back home (even Apple is researching manufacturing the iPhone here). Where is the best place to do business in SoCal? Arguably Irvine.

Lots of factors make Irvine a solid bet. I don't see it losing any appeal anytime soon.
 
If it is a bad time to buy, should I sell?

Not apples to apples due to transaction costs,  moving costs, and my low property taxes, but similar.

If you think 2014 got you more for $650k, in 2012 under $600k got me  2100sqft detached new construction with a $20k design center credit and builder paid closing costs.
 
At the entry level sub 750k buy vs rent still favors buying due to high rents and low rates. 

Also, if you plan on buying a bigger home 5-10 years later, your first home is a hedge.
 
Timing the market is like gambling. You never know what the future holds. From my experience, which is owning 2 homes and on contract to buy a new home, I always believe that real estate appreciates in the long run. Especially with at least 4 years of Trump at the helm who made his living on real estate, I don't see any corrections in the near future.

I bought my first home before the bubble at a very high price. But the current value is still slightly above that price although it had tanked considerably in 2008-09. Second home in 2012, which has appreciated nicely.

Since this is your first home, go for it, even if that means you will need to stretch a bit.
 
If you plan to live in your current home for awhile (7 or more years), then where we are in the current real estate cycle becomes secondary assuming you can afford the monthly outlay.  Keep in mind that current loan rates are still near historic lows.  If you are looking to capitalize on appreciation so that you can trade up within the next couple of years, then your guess is as good as anyone else's as to whether now is a good time to buy.  If you are fortunate enough to get significant price appreciation over the next two years that you do trade up, then you'll face the same question of whether that would be a good time to increase your exposure to residential real estate.  At that time, my first sentence becomes applicable again.

From a macro picture, Orange County looks to be a good long term bet for increasing property values.  There is a lack of more affordable housing and the area should continue to experience job growth.  If anything, the amount of new inventory in eastern Irvine is having an impact on housing values, especially in the $1 million plus market.  Once the area builds out, I think home values may experience more upside.
 
I bought in 2012, it was dumb luck. My wife was pregnant and we were going to need more space. Went from a single story 1500 sq ft rental to 3000 sq ft two story house.
 
I think once building is done in Irvine the surrounding cities will actually go up more. The only thing available in Irvine will then be resale and we all know how idiotic the pricing will be so people will just go buy in lake forest and surrounding cities. The prices will get too high for people to afford this causing hem to look elsewhere. The
 
I'm curious why people think Trump will be good for OC real estate prices.  What will happen if he actually does what he said he was going to to - ban muslims (that would include rich Persians and Arabs), deport illegal Mexicans (that would mean much more available housing), heavily tax Chinese imports (that would severly harm Chinese economy which would mean fewer Chinese buying houses in Irvine). 

If he does succeed in bringing manufacturing back to the USA, places like Kentucky, TN, OH will be the states that will benefit. California is too expensive unless companies wan to lose money. That would mean lower stock prices which would mean people would lose the down payment money they are "saving" in the stock market.

Sorry I don't have an answer to the original question, but my view is not optimistic for the short term.
 
As long as you can afford it and you can stay for 5-10 years, any time is a good time to buy.

I've bought at low, mid and peak -- time is the great equalizer.

Just make sure you get a good floor plan and a good location in case you have to wait it out.
 
Loco_local said:
I'm curious why people think Trump will be good for OC real estate prices.  What will happen if he actually does what he said he was going to to - ban muslims (that would include rich Persians and Arabs), deport illegal Mexicans (that would mean much more available housing), heavily tax Chinese imports (that would severly harm Chinese economy which would mean fewer Chinese buying houses in Irvine). 

If he does succeed in bringing manufacturing back to the USA, places like Kentucky, TN, OH will be the states that will benefit. California is too expensive unless companies wan to lose money. That would mean lower stock prices which would mean people would lose the down payment money they are "saving" in the stock market.

Sorry I don't have an answer to the original question, but my view is not optimistic for the short term.
Click to expand...

I doubt he will be able to ban Muslims.

He could get a law passed preventing babies from automatically getting citizenship (and benefits including schooling down the road for all those motel mama kids) and that might have a negative effect on housing.

I for one hope he does that, no matter the effect on home pricing here in the OC.
 
The majority of people on this forum agree that Irvine real estate will continue to appreciate in both the near-term and long-term. New construction raises their base price 2%-3% every phase which gives equity and appreciation for early buyers. Once Irvine is built out, resales will be more competitive as there won't be nearly as much new construction inventory.

Some people are waiting for another recession where home prices fall 20%, but I just don't see that happening. Maybe a few percent here and there, but nothing like we saw 5 or 6 years ago.
 
I can see why people feel Trump will be good for real estate.  However, lets not forget that during the last recession he said that he hopes real estate goes down. That way people like him can buy more of it. I'm actually looking for a home to buy but the inventory is horrible for a budget of 600k.
 
I plan to live in it for at least 5-7 years.  I don't plan on selling unless prices go crazy and there is someone willing to buy over inflated properties.  I'll likely rent it out long term (again, this is 10 years into the future).  Basically, I'm going to spend my entire 30s in this place.

Don't make me think about 2011/2012 prices....I'd like to think 2014 was a great price :)

Its amazing that the best/most affordable place today in Irvine is a 3/4 story townhome right next to a landfill AND a freeway LOL (just FYI, I have to have at least 1700 sqft, I can't do without it...Going to miss a small backyard too - its amazing how even 100 sqft of backyard is appreciated).
 
qwerty said:
I think once building is done in Irvine the surrounding cities will actually go up more. The only thing available in Irvine will then be resale and we all know how idiotic the pricing will be so people will just go buy in lake forest and surrounding cities. The prices will get too high for people to afford this causing hem to look elsewhere. The
Click to expand...

so basically, you don't see irvine crashing.  It is still a bad time though because you got a great price in 2012.

I definitely don't want to buy in surrounding areas, because IFy the market takes a hit, these surrounding areas will feel it more.  Actually, maybe not so much south OC, but definitely Tustin/Orange/Anaheim/etc.  At that point, maybe I'll buy a actual house and get a real backyard :)
 
ArchPhotog said:
qwerty said:
Bad time to buy.
Click to expand...

Could be.

Though with this nationalist movement there will definitely be more jobs coming back home (even Apple is researching manufacturing the iPhone here). Where is the best place to do business in SoCal? Arguably Irvine.

Lots of factors make Irvine a solid bet. I don't see it losing any appeal anytime soon.
Click to expand...


If I wanted to open manufacturing facility, it wouldn't be in California.
 
I have learnt one thing watching real estate prices in Southern California since the late 1980's.  During downturns, the nicest neighborhoods drop the least in price.  The lower end neighborhoods drop the most.  In good times, the nicest neighborhoods appreciate the most as well.  The nicest neighborhoods raise the tide that raises all the other boats (neighborhoods).  So long as Irvine keeps up the quality of their schools, there will be no shortage of people wanting to live in Irvine. 
 
irvine buyer said:
I have learnt one thing watching real estate prices in Southern California since the late 1980's.  During downturns, the nicest neighborhoods drop the least in price.  The lower end neighborhoods drop the most.  In good times, the nicest neighborhoods appreciate the most as well.  The nicest neighborhoods raise the tide that raises all the other boats (neighborhoods).  So long as Irvine keeps up the quality of their schools, there will be no shortage of people wanting to live in Irvine.
Click to expand...

Schools are great, but if you don't have a job...
 
momopi said:
ArchPhotog said:
qwerty said:
Bad time to buy.
Click to expand...

Could be.

Though with this nationalist movement there will definitely be more jobs coming back home (even Apple is researching manufacturing the iPhone here). Where is the best place to do business in SoCal? Arguably Irvine.

Lots of factors make Irvine a solid bet. I don't see it losing any appeal anytime soon.
Click to expand...


If I wanted to open manufacturing facility, it wouldn't be in California.
Click to expand...

Maybe he hasn't read the Toyota moving to Texas thread.  ;)
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top