NAR and Fed numbers out for Feb: what does it mean for OC/Irvine?

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lxdengar_IHB

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<p>(NYTimes) "Sales of existing homes unexpectedly rose in February by the largest amount in nearly three years, but some analysts expressed concerns that the recovery for the housing industry will be slowed by spreading troubles in subprime mortgage lending."</p>

<p>(Bloomberg) "Last month's jump in sales partially reflects the closing of contracts signed in December, when unseasonably warm weather brought out more house hunters, David Lereah, the Realtors' chief economist, said at a briefing in Washington."</p>

<p>This is the second rise in exiting home sales (january was also up), but YOY numbers werestill 3.6 percent below a year ago.</p>

<p>I should say - this is NOT a troll comment. I'm a believer in the eventual fall of housing prices, but I'm getting concerned that buys were back in force in enough numbers to prop up the mess that the subprimes have exposed.</p>

<p><a href="http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2007/03/23/business/0324-biz-webEXISTHOME.gif">http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2007/03/23/business/0324-biz-webEXISTHOME.gif</a></p>

<p> </p>
 
i've also noticed the increase in home sales, and not just in the quantity, but the speed at which they sell (I've seen some sold in 1-2 weeks. we all know how sluggish it was late last year)





i want to say it's just for the nice detached homes, but even the dinky condos between 400-550 go rather quickly.
 
<p>I wanted to menion two other notices which greatly worried me in regards to a correction in the market.</p>

<p><strong>Ohio Plans Bonds to Bail Out Homeowners Strapped by Mortgages</strong> </p>

<p><a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601170&sid=asu8RitVhBIE&refer=home">http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601170&sid=asu8RitVhBIE&refer=home</a></p>

<p><strong>Fed's Geithner Says Subprime Woes Unlikely to Spread</strong></p>

<p>http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601170&refer=special_report&sid=adfKGDJ51rcw</p>
 
Yes, I am noticing homes are selling quickly (nice ones though). Inventory is very limited (not much to choose from). The buying season for 2006 never came. I am thinking these are the buyers from 2006. And renters, they are coming in from other states. LOL.
 
<p>A surge here and there is normal. People who can't wait any longer and believe prices are bottomed out, are going to buy. Just like in the late 90's stock market " It can't possibly go lower" and people were compelled to buy because a particular stock went from $200 to $30. Guess what? that stock eventually went to $0.25 and then zero. I'm not advocating home prices will do the same, but it has to come down. A 900 SQ feet condo should not cost $600,000 no matter where it is, period.</p>

<p>Patience is a virtue</p>
 
This is the first thread I have seen here where people are worried the crash isn't coming. I have actually seen a number like it over at Pigginton's site. Nothing has changed for the better in the last 60 days. In fact, things have gotten much, much worse. If there was a blip in January and February, it was likely the last minute rush to close a loan before the standards changed. Have you ever been at a bar at last call? Well, the lenders gave the last call, and the money is no longer going to flow.
 
<p>Irvine is on-track for 1000 homes on the MLS by the end of the month. Last year, Irvine didn't reach 1000 until later in the year. Active/pending ratio is back over 5 for the county again, too. I don't see any recovery from this chair.</p>
 
Maybe I am seeing the glass half empty but YOY was down 3.6%, January was revised down and so could February, inventory increased 5.9%, sales were flat in the West but up 14.2% in the Northeast because of weather, sales were down 9.6% in the West YOY compared to up 3.4% in the Northeast, the median price was down 1.3% YOY and that was the seventh consecutive monthly decline, prices were up 2.2% in the West YOY but only up .53% when looking at the average price for 2005 and down 4.5% when adjusted for inflation. I don't think an uptick in the national sales is a sign for a rebound. Plus the Dataquick numbers that came out today showed price decreases and sales volume continuing to drop.
 
Graphix, thanks for your data. Is there a specific date that the NAR revises its numbers, if they have to? Also, you 9.6% sales down number, is that all homes?





Oc_fliptrack, what was the month we hit 1000 homes on the MLS last year? Can you point me to where I can find that data? I'm definitely new at this, so any information would be helpful.





As a side note, does anyone know what the reaction was at Option One having their funding cut in half (2Bil from 4Bil?)
 
<p>lxdenger - NAR will revise their data next month if they need to and I could be wrong it could be higher. You can find the reports here: <a href="http://www.realtor.org/Research.nsf/Pages/EHSdata">http://www.realtor.org/Research.nsf/Pages/EHSdata</a> </p>

<p>I can't recall the month Irivne had 1000 homes on the market but we are getting close again. We should have over 1000 NODs this month though.</p>

<p>No reaction on Option One as they probably aren't doing enough business to justify a $4 billion warehouse line. If they get busier they just have to sell the loans faster. </p>
 
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