N. Korea has "declared" war on the south

[socal78]

http://www.cnn.com/2013/03/29/world/asia/north-korea-us-threats/index.html

Would China use this opportunity to take back Taiwan and their disputed territories in Japan? If that happened, what could we do about it short of all-out nuclear war? If the dominoes are lined up, how do you predict this would affect the U.S. economy? I've been wanting to bring it up anyway for the last few days but now seems like the best time. Discuss.

 

[socal78]

For the last 4 nights now, I've had dreams (nightmares) in my sleep about N. Korea, as tension has mounted. Nightmares that I'm living in N. Korea. Ever since I watched Lisa Ling's awesome documentary years ago, I've never forgotten it. Nightmares that a nuke is headed our way even though during waking hours I'm not nearly as concerned about that... obviously, it's weighing on my mind subconsciously somehow. I do discuss the topic on news-related sites with others. It's a hot topic... like... everywhere but here. That's kind of weird. My *guess* is that since many of you are from Asia and maybe even S. Korea, you might be accustomed to hearing the threats from N. Korea like every-other day and think nothing of it.

 

[jayl23]

You been watching "Red Dawn" lately?  "Wolverines!!!"

Yeah, it's pretty much a 'been there, done that' kind of scenario with the Kim Jong "mentally" Ill/Un crowd.  Trying to stay relevant, doing the "will threaten for food" thing again.  Meanwhile, the poor NK people are eating tree bark or just plain starving to death.

For some humor:http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-...ainst-south-korea-and-north-korea-kaption-kon

As for China, they might have some kind of 'incident' with Japan, since there's more bad blood there than with Taiwan.  That should fan the flames of national pride with the Chinese citizens, so as to take their mind off their other problems (political corruption, inflation, food safety, housing bubble) - the usual 'bread and circuses' routine.  I think it won't affect the US economy very much, other than perhaps drive even more Chinese/Japanese/Taiwanese CBs to buy more houses in desirable areas in the US (*cough* Irvine *cough*) as a safety/diversification/insurance play.  I believe most of the Chi-coms in the politburo just want to make/siphon off as much money as they can, and any major regional conflict is probably not a good thing for their economy, and their take.

I wouldn't worry about any nukes in SoCal - the NK missiles would most likely target major areas that are closest (Hawaii, Alaska, Seattle, maybe LA if you really stretch it).  But even the little fat-ass double-chinned midget knows if he even tries that, his whole country will be turned to glass.

That's one reason I don't like living in large cities - big targets.

 

[socal78]

I've never seen "Red Dawn".  You've got me curious. I might have to watch.

Yeah, during waking hours, I'm really not concerned about being nuked over here on the mainland. Not only has NK has never successfully tested an ICBM (their only test in 2006 failed approx 35 secs. after launch) but their only operational long-range missile can only travel 1,800 miles. They can't even touch India at 3k mi. away, never mind going twice or even 3x as far. He's pretty much restricted to the Korean peninsula. Haha, yes, I'd love to see them aim for Alaska where we currently have 26 ground-based missile interceptors / EKVs waiting for them at Fort Greely and more on the way. Theirs is a country that Photoshops in extra military hovercrafts, literally Copy & Paste, in their state-issued photographs.

Yes, I agree Kim Jong Un is a tiny, annoying, yapping Chihuahua trying to wake up a sleeping Great Dane which can not be bothered by him.

 

[qwerty]

I've never seen "Red Dawn".  You've got me curious. I might have to watch.

Yeah, during waking hours, I'm really not concerned about being nuked over here on the mainland. Not only has NK has never successfully tested an ICBM (their only test in 2006 failed approx 35 secs. after launch) but their only operational long-range missile can only travel 1,800 miles. They can't even touch India at 3k mi. away, never mind going twice or even 3x as far. He's pretty much restricted to the Korean peninsula. Haha, yes, I'd love to see them aim for Alaska where we currently have 26 ground-based missile interceptors / EKVs waiting for them at Fort Greely and more on the way. Theirs is a country that Photoshops in extra military hovercrafts, literally Copy & Paste, in their state-issued photographs.

Yes, I agree Kim Jong Un is a tiny, annoying, yapping Chihuahua trying to wake up a sleeping Great Dane which can not be bothered by him.

forget red dawn, go watch Olympus Has Fallen, that was pretty good.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

I don't think you have to worry too much about NK... seems like everyone is against them so someone will step on them if they get out of hand.

As for China... they have too much to lose by instigating something with Japan. As it stands now, what does China have to gain by pulling an NK? I think they actually like how it is now, global supplier for anything a consumer wants and they make the rules for their own population.

China is rational... there are other countries/groups we have more to worry about.

 

[daedalus]

Well said.  China and NK have been friends in the past, but as China gains prominence North Korea is that embarrassing acquaintance that polite folks call "a bit different" and which China regrets hanging out with when they were in middle school.

 

[socal78]

Well said.  China and NK have been friends in the past, but as China gains prominence North Korea is that embarrassing acquaintance that polite folks call "a bit different" and which China regrets hanging out with when they were in middle school.

I would certainly like to believe this is true. But what is it based on?? In February, when N. Korea conducted (it's third if I'm not mistaken??) nuclear testing, China did little more than vaguely wag a finger in the general direction of any nation which would so much as consider doing the same, without really singling out N. Korea.

China is Pyongyang's only major ally, Russia not included. For someone who would supposedly be relieved to disassociate themselves from their oddball middle school friend, they seem way too interested in maintaining ties: China Backs North Korean Economic Zone Amid Nuclear Threats. Today, N. Korea also announced it is reopening its uranium enrichment plant and 5-megawatt reactor since it was shut down 6 years ago. Let's see what China does about this. If the past is any indication, we shouldn't hold our breaths.

Just like at the Kaesong Factory complex, N. Korea provides extremely cheap labor - they make less money than the citizens of sub-Saharan Africa. How can we take China seriously when they are rooting for the success of Rason, hoping for it to become the next Shenzehn?

The article linked above also mentions that one editor from China's "Study Times" expressed his opinion in a February article that China should abandon N. Korea. He was suspended from his job.

Imo, things are too touch-and-go right now. The slightest incident from N. Korea, even by accident, could spark an incident. But so far it doesn't really seem like we can count on China to do anything about it.

 

[socal78]

On a different note, I was like:   when I read about N. Korea expanding Air Koryo. Apparently, they view themselves as a tourist destination.

How do I put this.

I would rather my husband take me on a "romantic" helicopter tour of the hills of Afghanistan than snatch-up 2 tickets to N. Korea.

 

[socal78]

forget red dawn, go watch Olympus Has Fallen, that was pretty good.

Thanks for the recommendation. I'll have to check Netflix. I wonder if either film deals with an invasion by N. Korea's "one million man army"? I get the feeling my nightmares are about to get a whole lot worse. 

 

[jayl23]

On a different note, I was like:   when I read about N. Korea expanding Air Koryo. Apparently, they view themselves as a tourist destination.

How do I put this.

I would rather my husband take me on a "romantic" helicopter tour of the hills of Afghanistan than snatch-up 2 tickets to N. Korea.

http://travel.yahoo.com/ideas/least-visited-countries-in-the-world-201146242.html

Between the two, right now I would choose N. Korea over Afghanistan, purely on 'relative' safety.  Would choose commie govt minders over risk of getting kidnapped/killed by Taliban.  Of course, somebody would have to pay for my trip, no way I'm spending my own money to goto either place.

 

[Irvinecommuter]

Well said.  China and NK have been friends in the past, but as China gains prominence North Korea is that embarrassing acquaintance that polite folks call "a bit different" and which China regrets hanging out with when they were in middle school.

I would certainly like to believe this is true. But what is it based on?? In February, when N. Korea conducted (it's third if I'm not mistaken??) nuclear testing, China did little more than vaguely wag a finger in the general direction of any nation which would so much as consider doing the same, without really singling out N. Korea.

China is Pyongyang's only major ally, Russia not included. For someone who would supposedly be relieved to disassociate themselves from their oddball middle school friend, they seem way too interested in maintaining ties: China Backs North Korean Economic Zone Amid Nuclear Threats. Today, N. Korea also announced it is reopening its uranium enrichment plant and 5-megawatt reactor since it was shut down 6 years ago. Let's see what China does about this. If the past is any indication, we shouldn't hold our breaths.

Just like at the Kaesong Factory complex, N. Korea provides extremely cheap labor - they make less money than the citizens of sub-Saharan Africa. How can we take China seriously when they are rooting for the success of Rason, hoping for it to become the next Shenzehn?

The article linked above also mentions that one editor from China's "Study Times" expressed his opinion in a February article that China should abandon N. Korea. He was suspended from his job.

Imo, things are too touch-and-go right now. The slightest incident from N. Korea, even by accident, could spark an incident. But so far it doesn't really seem like we can count on China to do anything about it.

Don't worry about countries with actual governments.  They have an incentive to not get wiped off the face of the Earth.  You worry about crazy people who thinks that it's their mission in life to destroy the US. 

 

[jayl23]

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-03/north-korea-says-it-has-final-approval-nuclear-attack-us

Their most advanced operational missile is named "No-dong 2", and they're developing more advanced ones named "Taepo dong".  Not sure if they're trying to threaten us, or make us giggle and chuckle with these funny phallic sounding weapons.  You decide.

 

[momopi]

Neither the US or China is serious about ending their use of the Korean peninsula as proxy conflict zone.  For US it means continued justification to forward deploy US military assets at Russia and China's doorstep.  For China it means having a convenient scapegoat/target and buying time for the latter 2 phases of the four modernization (agriculture -> industrial -> science/technology -> defense) to make China the premiere regional power in East Asia.  However I do not believe the Chinese leadership would allow their defense sector to turn into another military?industrial?congressional complex with trillion dollar defense budgets.  To date the Chinese military has been far more disciplined in terms of expenditure and scope creep.

The Chinese leadership is well aware that their developing military is not up to par with the US and Japan today.  As one PLA General put it, to go to war against the US would be like smashing eggs or jade against a rock.  In East Asian culture, the egg or jade in this context described the body, and smashing it against a rock means to fight a suicidal fight with impossible odds.  In Japanese this is called gyokusai (??), or "jade shards", which was considered a honorable suicide against impossible odds for a warrior.  However in modern usage today, it means to waste lives in a futile attempt.

Ideally, the Chinese leadership would like to simply continue their path of development and reach a point where their military powers is sufficient to deter US/Japan, and turn Taiwan toward Finlandization.  But we cannot predict how long China's rapid economic growth will continue in its current cycle.  The Daoyus dispute is simply an attempt to force Japan to acknowledge that the territorial conflict exists, and once that objective has been accomplished, they can force Japan to the negotiation table later.  If we look at recent Chinese territorial dispute negotiations with SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organisation) members, it's clear that Beijing is perfectly willing to accept less than what they asked for initially, because they're gaining territory that were not under their administration.  If you dispute 1,000 sq km and end up with 350 sq km, that's 350 sq km that you didn't have previously.

For the (South) Koreans, they're more than happy for China to occupy Japan with the island dispute and take pressure off their Dokdo dispute with Japan.  In terms of military power, South Korean military today is no pushover, but they're placed under a leash by the US.  Should that leash ever be removed and they decide to resolve the conflict with North once and for all, I'm confident that the SK military can defeat the NK in a conventional war.  The wild card here is NK's nuclear weapons, and with such short distance to SK's capital, it's unlikely that the SK would successfully intercept every nuclear-armed missile that NK lobs toward Seoul.  You don't need to be very accurate with a nuke either.  The bulk of SK's economic activity centers around Seoul, and if hit by a nuke, SK will cease to be relevant for decades to come.

 

[socal78]

On a different note, I was like:   when I read about N. Korea expanding Air Koryo. Apparently, they view themselves as a tourist destination.

How do I put this.

I would rather my husband take me on a "romantic" helicopter tour of the hills of Afghanistan than snatch-up 2 tickets to N. Korea.

http://travel.yahoo.com/ideas/least-visited-countries-in-the-world-201146242.html

Between the two, right now I would choose N. Korea over Afghanistan, purely on 'relative' safety.  Would choose commie govt minders over risk of getting kidnapped/killed by Taliban.  Of course, somebody would have to pay for my trip, no way I'm spending my own money to goto either place.

NotSoFastMister. Being there is one thing but getting there is another. Air Koryo is the only airline in the world bad enough to warrant a 1-star rating from SkyTrax. Their safety is rather ambiguous. Poor enough to have been banned in Europe but good enough to have no known recent track record of incidents... that we know of... then again, they don't report to the FAA.

 

[socal78]

Looking at the pics the last few days of rallies in Pyongyang, fists pumping in the air, chanting "death to the U.S." -- makes me wish we would simply take a couple fighter jets and fly them overhead... all it should take is one sonic boom. Break a few windows, shatter some of the eyeglasses sitting on their noses. They'd probably put the signs down and say, " :-\ Forget this. I'm going home!"

 

[socal78]

The wild card here is NK's nuclear weapons, and with such short distance to SK's capital, it's unlikely that the SK would successfully intercept every nuclear-armed missile that NK lobs toward Seoul.  You don't need to be very accurate with a nuke either.  The bulk of SK's economic activity centers around Seoul, and if hit by a nuke, SK will cease to be relevant for decades to come.

We have so many Patriots ready & waiting. Surely many more than they have nukes to spare in their arsenal... not even taking into account the cost (last I checked each nuke is valued at like $1.4M or so.) I'd love to see them try. A single attempt may be all we need to ask ourselves: Will "Lake Pyongyang" be salt water or fresh water? 

Imo, it was a clumsy move for N. Korea to announce reopening of their uranium enrichment plant... same thing as admitting they need more fuel and are under-prepared.

 

[Irvinecommuter]

The wild card here is NK's nuclear weapons, and with such short distance to SK's capital, it's unlikely that the SK would successfully intercept every nuclear-armed missile that NK lobs toward Seoul.  You don't need to be very accurate with a nuke either.  The bulk of SK's economic activity centers around Seoul, and if hit by a nuke, SK will cease to be relevant for decades to come.

We have so many Patriots ready & waiting. Surely many more than they have nukes to spare in their arsenal... not even taking into account the cost (last I checked each nuke is valued at like $1.4M or so.) I'd love to see them try. A single attempt may be all we need to ask ourselves: Will "Lake Pyongyang" be salt water or fresh water? 

Imo, it was a clumsy move for N. Korea to announce reopening of their uranium enrichment plant... same thing as admitting they need more fuel and are under-prepared.

It's basically a kid throwing a tantrum.  The best thing to do is not to react to it.  Otherwise, NK will think that doing it will get them attention and "respect."

 

[jayl23]

HAVE NO FEAR! RODMAN IS HERE!

 

[socal78]

Rodman should have signed his ball!

So much N. Korea news the last few days. Sigh. Wish I had time to post more.

Don't know if you all saw by now but their official NK Twitter page was hacked. (For real. I'm not kidding.) I'm sure you've all seen the photo. I'll have to come back and post it.