Market Top

[eyephone]

all of this data for irvine is flawed because there are phases of new homes being sold that may include more condos than mcmansions and vice versa.  it's not an accurate indicator of market strength/weakness because of the nature of new home development. 

for all we know, apr-19 could have had 100 mcmansion sales and 50 condo sales, while sept-19 could have had 50 mcmansion sales and 100 condo sales.

not to mention all of the people on waitlists for months while their new home is built.

Hmm.....Big waitlist?

not sure about today, but historically (the data we're looking at) had lots of waitlists for phases.

I think a member recently said something else when they were helping out a family member. (Like incentives)

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Apr-19 918,000
May-19 845,000
Jun-19 850,846
Jul-19 860,000
Aug-19 880,000
Sep-19 830,000

Almost $100k dropped within 5 months? If that's true, then it seems pretty bad...

This is why you can't use a specific median pricing per month compared to another month to determine overall market conditions. You can only use median over time as a trend and not say "Well, Irvine dropped X% because one month the median was this and the other month the median was that".

I've been saying this for many years now because median pricing does not take into account what type of housing was sold, what is the distribution of the prices, etc.

Even YOY comparisons by month are flawed for the same reasons... while it does account for seasonality, it doesn't account for type of stock sold.

What the data trend looks like to me is that prices for Irvine are relatively flat from 2018 to 2019. Even if you want to say 5% down, considering how it's being measured, that's within the error margin (as I've said many times) so you can't definitively say *every* buyer would have saved money from last year to this year other than by lower interest rates (which again, no one can claim as to why they said to wait because no one predicted lower rates... some even said that low rates were history).

Does this mean slowdown? Sort of, because prices are not rising at the rate they have been in previous years... it's just not the kind of slowdown... in my opinion... that warrants having to wait if you 1) can afford the home, 2) can stay in the home, and 3) the home meets your needs.

 

[Liar Loan]

it's just not the kind of slowdown... in my opinion... that warrants having to wait if you 1) can afford the home, 2) can stay in the home, and 3) the home meets your needs.

This is a nice bit of misdirection, because the simple truth is you don't think the '08 slowdown was worth waiting for lower prices either.  A nuclear bomb could go off in Irvine and you would say it's a great time to buy.

Another bit of truth is that those that wait until a recession has passed before purchasing have always scored the best deals - '85, '96, '02, '09.  Both home values and rates are at their most favorable during these times.

 

[eyephone]

it's just not the kind of slowdown... in my opinion... that warrants having to wait if you 1) can afford the home, 2) can stay in the home, and 3) the home meets your needs.

This is a nice bit of misdirection, because the simple truth is you don't think the '08 slowdown was worth waiting for lower prices either.  A nuclear bomb could go off in Irvine and you would say it's a great time to buy.

Another bit of truth is that those that wait until a recession has passed before purchasing have always scored the best deals - '85, '96, '02, '09.  Both home values and rates are at their most favorable during these times.

Exactly. I wouldn?t go that far with your analogy.

Why not save for a rainy day? When it?s a rainy day back the truck up and buy.
It all comes down to. Everybody wants a deal and timing.

Why not buy another house without a reduction or discount Iho if you think it?s a good time to buy? (just a question)

 

[irvinehomeowner]

it's just not the kind of slowdown... in my opinion... that warrants having to wait if you 1) can afford the home, 2) can stay in the home, and 3) the home meets your needs.

This is a nice bit of misdirection, because the simple truth is you don't think the '08 slowdown was worth waiting for lower prices either.  A nuclear bomb could go off in Irvine and you would say it's a great time to buy.

This is a nice lie. When did I say 08 was not worth waiting? You keep forgetting that I did, I even sold a house partly hoping to get back in at a lower price.

Just because real data analysis is bursting your bubble doesn't mean you can start putting words in my mouth.

Another bit of truth is that those that wait until a recession has passed before purchasing have always scored the best deals - '85, '96, '02, '09.  Both home values and rates are at their most favorable during these times.

Agreed. but I don't think 09 belongs on this list... or 10 (when you purchased)... 12 was much more favorable in prices and rates.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

it's just not the kind of slowdown... in my opinion... that warrants having to wait if you 1) can afford the home, 2) can stay in the home, and 3) the home meets your needs.

This is a nice bit of misdirection, because the simple truth is you don't think the '08 slowdown was worth waiting for lower prices either.  A nuclear bomb could go off in Irvine and you would say it's a great time to buy.

Another bit of truth is that those that wait until a recession has passed before purchasing have always scored the best deals - '85, '96, '02, '09.  Both home values and rates are at their most favorable during these times.

Exactly. I wouldn?t go that far with your analogy.

Why not save for a rainy day? When it?s a rainy day back the truck up and buy.
It all comes down to. Everybody wants a deal and timing.

Why not buy another house without a reduction or discount Iho if you think it?s a good time to buy? (just a question)

Did I say it's a good time to buy? I keep saying the same thing... for some people, they should wait... but for others, if they can afford it, have found the right home, and can stay... they don't have to wait.

 

[Mety]

What the data trend looks like to me is that prices for Irvine are relatively flat from 2018 to 2019. Even if you want to say 5% down, considering how it's being measured, that's within the error margin (as I've said many times) so you can't definitively say *every* buyer would have saved money from last year to this year other than by lower interest rates (which again, no one can claim as to why they said to wait because no one predicted lower rates... some even said that low rates were history).

I believe fortune11 did predict coming lower rates before it actually took place.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

What the data trend looks like to me is that prices for Irvine are relatively flat from 2018 to 2019. Even if you want to say 5% down, considering how it's being measured, that's within the error margin (as I've said many times) so you can't definitively say *every* buyer would have saved money from last year to this year other than by lower interest rates (which again, no one can claim as to why they said to wait because no one predicted lower rates... some even said that low rates were history).

I believe fortune11 did predict coming lower rates before it actually took place.

I stand corrected.

I should have said "no one predicting the slowdown".

 

[Kings]

for everyone who says don't buy: what about if you're trading up?  why not take all that great equity you generated over the past 3-5 years and put it into a nicer home?

or is the "don't buy" sentiment only for first time homebuyers?

 

[Liar Loan]

it's just not the kind of slowdown... in my opinion... that warrants having to wait if you 1) can afford the home, 2) can stay in the home, and 3) the home meets your needs.

This is a nice bit of misdirection, because the simple truth is you don't think the '08 slowdown was worth waiting for lower prices either.  A nuclear bomb could go off in Irvine and you would say it's a great time to buy.

This is a nice lie. When did I say 08 was not worth waiting? You keep forgetting that I did, I even sold a house partly hoping to get back in at a lower price.

Just because real data analysis is bursting your bubble doesn't mean you can start putting words in my mouth.

No, I did not forget.  You said that waiting in '08 didn't have much of a benefit.

for everyone who says don't buy: what about if you're trading up?  why not take all that great equity you generated over the past 3-5 years and put it into a nicer home?

or is the "don't buy" sentiment only for first time homebuyers?

My recommendations pertain to first time buyers.  If you already own, it doesn't make sense to sell your house, wait out the market by renting, then buy again after a decline, because the costs of doing so would negate most of the benefit.  If you want to trade up, it might be beneficial in the sense that pricier homes tend to have smaller price drops in percentage terms than entry level homes.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

it's just not the kind of slowdown... in my opinion... that warrants having to wait if you 1) can afford the home, 2) can stay in the home, and 3) the home meets your needs.

This is a nice bit of misdirection, because the simple truth is you don't think the '08 slowdown was worth waiting for lower prices either.  A nuclear bomb could go off in Irvine and you would say it's a great time to buy.

This is a nice lie. When did I say 08 was not worth waiting? You keep forgetting that I did, I even sold a house partly hoping to get back in at a lower price.

Just because real data analysis is bursting your bubble doesn't mean you can start putting words in my mouth.

No, I did not forget.  You said that waiting in '08 didn't have much of a benefit.

You're twisting the story but that still brings me back to my premise that even if you buy during the peak, if you can stay in your home and afford it, you can weather subsequent drops.

Is that better than just waiting for the drop and then buying? It may not be financially, but again (and again and again), some people can't or don't want to wait so by purchasing a more stable product in a more stable area will help alleviate those concerns, which historically, Irvine has shown a slower drop and a quicker recovery.

I mean, you're the only one now who thinks Irvine isn't a better place to buy (as a place to live, not an investment)... not even eyephone or meccos can seem to support your stance there.

That Orange Balloon really bugs you doesn't it?

 

[Liar Loan]

You're twisting the story but that still brings me back to my premise that even if you buy during the peak, if you can stay in your home and afford it, you can weather subsequent drops.

Sure you can weather the drops if you don't overextend and you don't lose your job(s).  I weathered the drop in my condo for these reasons and because we held it for 11 years, seven of which were as unintentional landlords.  We would have been better off renting during that time and purchasing a much nicer home at the bottom, but yes, we weathered the storm if that is anybody's goal for buying right now.  Personally, I would like to shoot higher than "weathering the storm" when buying real estate.

Is that better than just waiting for the drop and then buying? It may not be financially, but again (and again and again), some people can't or don't want to wait so by purchasing a more stable product in a more stable area will help alleviate those concerns, which historically, Irvine has shown a slower drop and a quicker recovery.

Yes, my advice is only for people that can delay gratification.  The majority of Americans are lousy at this, but the minority who have self-control tend to live prosperous lives.

The slower drop in Irvine has been debunked.  The quicker recovery has happened exactly once, which was during the last cycle, but you talk as if it is a historical fact for every cycle, which it is not.  We already compared Irvine to OC during the 90's recovery and they both took the same amount of time to reach prior peak pricing.

I mean, you're the only one now who thinks Irvine isn't a better place to buy (as a place to live, not an investment)... not even eyephone or meccos can seem to support your stance there.

That Orange Balloon really bugs you doesn't it?

I liked the Irvine of pre-2000 much more.  It's too dense, boring, and unimaginative for my liking now, but sure it's still better than some areas.  I just wouldn't choose to make it my home because there are other things that I prioritize.

 

[usctrojancpa]

it's just not the kind of slowdown... in my opinion... that warrants having to wait if you 1) can afford the home, 2) can stay in the home, and 3) the home meets your needs.

This is a nice bit of misdirection, because the simple truth is you don't think the '08 slowdown was worth waiting for lower prices either.  A nuclear bomb could go off in Irvine and you would say it's a great time to buy.

This is a nice lie. When did I say 08 was not worth waiting? You keep forgetting that I did, I even sold a house partly hoping to get back in at a lower price.

Just because real data analysis is bursting your bubble doesn't mean you can start putting words in my mouth.

No, I did not forget.  You said that waiting in '08 didn't have much of a benefit.

for everyone who says don't buy: what about if you're trading up?  why not take all that great equity you generated over the past 3-5 years and put it into a nicer home?

or is the "don't buy" sentiment only for first time homebuyers?

My recommendations pertain to first time buyers.  If you already own, it doesn't make sense to sell your house, wait out the market by renting, then buy again after a decline, because the costs of doing so would negate most of the benefit.  If you want to trade up, it might be beneficial in the sense that pricier homes tend to have smaller price drops in percentage terms than entry level homes.

Not only that, but as you move up the price band the weaker the market which means more negotiating power.  So if you are selling a lower/middle end property (that market is luke warm to neutral), you'll be able to sell it a lot quicker and for a higher relative price than a more expensive home.  As an example, builders are accepting $75k-$100k+ price reduction on $1.5m+ new homes currently.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

The slower drop in Irvine has been debunked.

I think this is where you are confused. When I say "slower" it does not mean that prices started dropping later or started rising before... this is about quantity. Irvine dropped less in the same amount of time.

The quicker recovery has happened exactly once, which was during the last cycle, but you talk as if it is a historical fact for every cycle, which it is not.  We already compared Irvine to OC during the 90's recovery and they both took the same amount of time to reach prior peak pricing.

No, I don't think that was the conclusion. If you eyeball Larry's charts for OC and Irvine, Irvine looks like it got back to peak 1 year earlier than OC in the 90s.

Ask him for the actual numbers.

 

[meccos12]

What the data trend looks like to me is that prices for Irvine are relatively flat from 2018 to 2019. Even if you want to say 5% down, considering how it's being measured, that's within the error margin (as I've said many times) so you can't definitively say *every* buyer would have saved money from last year to this year other than by lower interest rates (which again, no one can claim as to why they said to wait because no one predicted lower rates... some even said that low rates were history).

I believe fortune11 did predict coming lower rates before it actually took place.

I stand corrected.

I should have said "no one predicting the slowdown".

You talk as if rates and prices are not related.  The fact that rates went down is probably the main reasons why prices didnt fall even further than it did.  Thank lower rates or you would have probably seen a 10% drop by now.

 

[irvinebullhousing]

Don't you think that these wealthy, influential, and top dogs individuals / institutions has something in their back pocket to pump things where they want it to go? The market prop up because "they " wanted it to go up. We small fishes has to read between the line and align small monies to benefit from it.

I am just a drop in the vast ocean of wealth.

 

[meccos12]

Don't you think that these wealthy, influential, and top dogs individuals / institutions has something in their back pocket to pump things where they want it to go? The market prop up because "they " wanted it to go up. We small fishes has to read between the line and align small monies to benefit from it.

I am just a drop in the vast ocean of wealth.

I actually agree with you on this.

 

[irvinebullhousing]

The Market accross the boards still has room to wiggle, particularly housing. The FED still has room to influence rate and can cut rate. When it hit zero, QE of bigger magnitude will comes into play thus continue to float the boat.

Everybody know, that buy low and sell high, even the failed students know this. Buy when it go into foreclosed. Sure text book teaches this. In the meantime, if you have some money, notice how more of it that you have to pay for with your dollars while let it sit in the bank and have NO gains.

When QE stop working, and stop stimulating the economy that's when the 1% let the Sh*t hit the fan. And the manipulation stop because it can not be manipulate any longer. By then the wealth has already transfer from the bottom up. 1/8 of the 1% control 90 percent of the bottoms in term of wealth put altogether.

 

[Liar Loan]

Don't you think that these wealthy, influential, and top dogs individuals / institutions has something in their back pocket to pump things where they want it to go? The market prop up because "they " wanted it to go up. We small fishes has to read between the line and align small monies to benefit from it.

I am just a drop in the vast ocean of wealth.

I actually agree with you on this.

Me three.

This is why I was encouraging people to buy like crazy starting in mid-2009, because it aligned with Fed policy.  They made it very clear they would do whatever it takes to put a floor in the market.  Lots of permabears on other blogs called me every name in the book at the time, but I put my money where my mouth was and purchased in 2010. 

Starting in 2018, the Fed began shrinking their balance sheet (selling MBS) and raising rates, so it made sense to be cautious, sell your RE investments, and hold off on buying because the risk of losses was much higher.  I wasn't very active on TI in 2018, so I won't take credit for telling you people to hold off last year, but I've been fighting the good fight this year, and some of the resident Irvine permabulls aren't too thrilled to see their RE losses highlighted.

When I started highlighting the YoY losses, it was heatedly disputed, but now there seems to be begrudging acceptance.  What a difference a few months makes!  Don't worry... We are in the 2nd inning of this ball game.  There are more losses to come!!

 

[irvinebullhousing]

Don't you think that these wealthy, influential, and top dogs individuals / institutions has something in their back pocket to pump things where they want it to go? The market prop up because "they " wanted it to go up. We small fishes has to read between the line and align small monies to benefit from it.

I am just a drop in the vast ocean of wealth.

I actually agree with you on this.

Me three.

This is why I was encouraging people to buy like crazy starting in mid-2009, because it aligned with Fed policy.  They made it very clear they would do whatever it takes to put a floor in the market.  Lots of permabears on other blogs called me every name in the book at the time, but I put my money where my mouth was and purchased in 2010. 

Starting in 2018, the Fed began shrinking their balance sheet (selling MBS) and raising rates, so it made sense to be cautious, sell your RE investments, and hold off on buying because the risk of losses was much higher.  I wasn't very active on TI in 2018, so I won't take credit for telling you people to hold off last year, but I've been fighting the good fight this year, and some of the resident Irvine permabulls aren't too thrilled to see their RE losses highlighted.

When I started highlighting the YoY losses, it was heatedly disputed, but now there seems to be begrudging acceptance.  What a difference a few months makes!  Don't worry... We are in the 2nd inning of this ball game.  There are more losses to come!!

I think you should always be cautious, when making big financial decision, more so in bad times than in good times.

So, facts is, California is the most populous state, facts is, there are more renters now than ever in the history of California. I firmly believe that the rental market will do extremely well, in the next 5-7 years if not more.