Burn That Belly
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Burn That Belly said:OC had a median sale price of $710,000. 9.2% y-o-y increase. That's actually quite affordable when you compare it to the bay area. SF has a shocking $1.4M median sale price with San Jose not too far behind at $1.26M. San Jose is seeing 32.3% y-o-y increase while SF is seeing 16.7% y-o-y increase.
https://www.redfin.com/blog/2018/04/market-tracker-march-2018.html
If you have two Twitter engineers @ $160K salary, that's $320K combined. How about an Irvine pharmaceutical rep @ $100K plus the RN spouse also at say $100K. $200K combined.
The twitter couple brings home $320K but have to pay for a $1.26M house. The Irvine couple brings home only $200K, almost 40% less, but they only have to pay $710K for a house. Which one is in a better shoe?
qwerty said:So glad I bought in the summer of 2012. I?m not sure I would be able to stomach ?overpaying? for what my house costs now knowing what prices were just six years ago.
OCLuvr said:Bigger question is: is it the end--are we closer to 2005 scenario or 2015?
paperboyNC said:OCLuvr said:Bigger question is: is it the end--are we closer to 2005 scenario or 2015?
My prediction is that housing prices will continue to rise until the next economic recession. There isn't any obvious triggers for a recession as there are no obscene asset bubbles (even tech is fairly reasonable) and there are no huge sources of debt driven demand to bust.
People seem pretty cautious now and recessions tend to come when no one expects them.
paperboyNC said:OCLuvr said:Bigger question is: is it the end--are we closer to 2005 scenario or 2015?
My prediction is that housing prices will continue to rise until the next economic recession. There isn't any obvious triggers for a recession as there are no obscene asset bubbles (even tech is fairly reasonable) and there are no huge sources of debt driven demand to bust.
People seem pretty cautious now and recessions tend to come when no one expects them.
fortune11 said:paperboyNC said:OCLuvr said:Bigger question is: is it the end--are we closer to 2005 scenario or 2015?
My prediction is that housing prices will continue to rise until the next economic recession. There isn't any obvious triggers for a recession as there are no obscene asset bubbles (even tech is fairly reasonable) and there are no huge sources of debt driven demand to bust.
People seem pretty cautious now and recessions tend to come when no one expects them.
+1
This is the most brief and logical argument I have seen on this and related topics
Lot of experts who make " bubble" prognostications are ultimately not held accountable when they are wrong . There is no feedback loop.
bill Gross was famously wrong in 2011 , greenspan himself had no clue in 2000s as to what really was going on ... one is still managing lots of $$$ and the other collecting $$$ speaking fees
reason being, they have no skin in the game
fortune11 said:In the long run ... we are all dead anyways
Timing matters in everything in life. A bubble that lasts for 5-6 years ( I have been hearing this bubble talk since 2013 btw) , is it really a bubble ?
Bubble sounds like a nice word when it rolls off one's tongue but does it have any actionable ideas ? What would you have done if you believed we were in a bubble since last 5 years ? sit around in cash and not own a home ?
see where this logic takes you ?
Liar Loan said:fortune11 said:In the long run ... we are all dead anyways
Timing matters in everything in life. A bubble that lasts for 5-6 years ( I have been hearing this bubble talk since 2013 btw) , is it really a bubble ?
Bubble sounds like a nice word when it rolls off one's tongue but does it have any actionable ideas ? What would you have done if you believed we were in a bubble since last 5 years ? sit around in cash and not own a home ?
see where this logic takes you ?
I already said a bubble is not defined by when it pops. If you know the price of something is irrationally expensive, then you should avoid buying it, and if you already own it, you should attempt to sell at the optimal price.
fortune11 said:Liar Loan said:fortune11 said:In the long run ... we are all dead anyways
Timing matters in everything in life. A bubble that lasts for 5-6 years ( I have been hearing this bubble talk since 2013 btw) , is it really a bubble ?
Bubble sounds like a nice word when it rolls off one's tongue but does it have any actionable ideas ? What would you have done if you believed we were in a bubble since last 5 years ? sit around in cash and not own a home ?
see where this logic takes you ?
I already said a bubble is not defined by when it pops. If you know the price of something is irrationally expensive, then you should avoid buying it, and if you already own it, you should attempt to sell at the optimal price.
Yes . and how do you define optimal ? rational ?
Fair value is known only in hindsight , not looking forward . Despite what your financial advisor may sell you on ...
Liar Loan said:fortune11 said:Liar Loan said:fortune11 said:In the long run ... we are all dead anyways
Timing matters in everything in life. A bubble that lasts for 5-6 years ( I have been hearing this bubble talk since 2013 btw) , is it really a bubble ?
Bubble sounds like a nice word when it rolls off one's tongue but does it have any actionable ideas ? What would you have done if you believed we were in a bubble since last 5 years ? sit around in cash and not own a home ?
see where this logic takes you ?
I already said a bubble is not defined by when it pops. If you know the price of something is irrationally expensive, then you should avoid buying it, and if you already own it, you should attempt to sell at the optimal price.
Yes . and how do you define optimal ? rational ?
Fair value is known only in hindsight , not looking forward . Despite what your financial advisor may sell you on ...
Optimal = the best pricing you can get
Rational = using logic as opposed to emotion
Price is what you pay. Value is what you receive in return.
Bubbles are not based on value, but on the irrational prices people are willing to pay.
Burn That Belly said:Liar Loan said:fortune11 said:Liar Loan said:fortune11 said:In the long run ... we are all dead anyways
Timing matters in everything in life. A bubble that lasts for 5-6 years ( I have been hearing this bubble talk since 2013 btw) , is it really a bubble ?
Bubble sounds like a nice word when it rolls off one's tongue but does it have any actionable ideas ? What would you have done if you believed we were in a bubble since last 5 years ? sit around in cash and not own a home ?
see where this logic takes you ?
I already said a bubble is not defined by when it pops. If you know the price of something is irrationally expensive, then you should avoid buying it, and if you already own it, you should attempt to sell at the optimal price.
Yes . and how do you define optimal ? rational ?
Fair value is known only in hindsight , not looking forward . Despite what your financial advisor may sell you on ...
Optimal = the best pricing you can get
Rational = using logic as opposed to emotion
Price is what you pay. Value is what you receive in return.
Bubbles are not based on value, but on the irrational prices people are willing to pay.
That is true! I totally agree with that. I wouldn't pay $905K for that Silverleaf home that MM sold. But that doesn't stop some othersuckermotivated buyer from getting emotionally wrapped up in their head and make anirrationalemotionally-driven offer (well above appraisal) to get what they want. If they SEE value, then more power to them.
fortune11 said:Liar Loan said:fortune11 said:Liar Loan said:fortune11 said:In the long run ... we are all dead anyways
Timing matters in everything in life. A bubble that lasts for 5-6 years ( I have been hearing this bubble talk since 2013 btw) , is it really a bubble ?
Bubble sounds like a nice word when it rolls off one's tongue but does it have any actionable ideas ? What would you have done if you believed we were in a bubble since last 5 years ? sit around in cash and not own a home ?
see where this logic takes you ?
I already said a bubble is not defined by when it pops. If you know the price of something is irrationally expensive, then you should avoid buying it, and if you already own it, you should attempt to sell at the optimal price.
Yes . and how do you define optimal ? rational ?
Fair value is known only in hindsight , not looking forward . Despite what your financial advisor may sell you on ...
Optimal = the best pricing you can get
Rational = using logic as opposed to emotion
Price is what you pay. Value is what you receive in return.
Bubbles are not based on value, but on the irrational prices people are willing to pay.
again more buzzwords and copy and paste from financial textbooks (this one is from Benjamin graham ?) - this is why a little knowledge can be a dangerous thing if you start believe your own ___
Paying top dollar for a home in 2012 or 2013 was a lot better than getting a home after haggling the best price in 2018 .
What was optimal ? Just scooping up all the inventory you could find in 2013 without regards to pinching pennies or trying to gain the optimal price for a home now .
We hit 3% on 10y treasury in 2013 -- was that optimal level ? or was the 1.4% in 2016 optimal ? is 3% now optimal ?
You cannot invest based on buzzwords ...when you hear them without specifics, run as far away as you can![]()
Liar Loan said:Burn That Belly said:Liar Loan said:fortune11 said:Liar Loan said:fortune11 said:In the long run ... we are all dead anyways
Timing matters in everything in life. A bubble that lasts for 5-6 years ( I have been hearing this bubble talk since 2013 btw) , is it really a bubble ?
Bubble sounds like a nice word when it rolls off one's tongue but does it have any actionable ideas ? What would you have done if you believed we were in a bubble since last 5 years ? sit around in cash and not own a home ?
see where this logic takes you ?
I already said a bubble is not defined by when it pops. If you know the price of something is irrationally expensive, then you should avoid buying it, and if you already own it, you should attempt to sell at the optimal price.
Yes . and how do you define optimal ? rational ?
Fair value is known only in hindsight , not looking forward . Despite what your financial advisor may sell you on ...
Optimal = the best pricing you can get
Rational = using logic as opposed to emotion
Price is what you pay. Value is what you receive in return.
Bubbles are not based on value, but on the irrational prices people are willing to pay.
That is true! I totally agree with that. I wouldn't pay $905K for that Silverleaf home that MM sold. But that doesn't stop some othersuckermotivated buyer from getting emotionally wrapped up in their head and make anirrationalemotionally-driven offer (well above appraisal) to get what they want. If they SEE value, then more power to them.
I don't necessarily think housing is in a bubble, but it is expensive. My first two posts on this thread were regarding the bond market, which is near an all time high.
fortune11 said:Liar Loan said:Burn That Belly said:Liar Loan said:fortune11 said:Liar Loan said:fortune11 said:In the long run ... we are all dead anyways
Timing matters in everything in life. A bubble that lasts for 5-6 years ( I have been hearing this bubble talk since 2013 btw) , is it really a bubble ?
Bubble sounds like a nice word when it rolls off one's tongue but does it have any actionable ideas ? What would you have done if you believed we were in a bubble since last 5 years ? sit around in cash and not own a home ?
see where this logic takes you ?
I already said a bubble is not defined by when it pops. If you know the price of something is irrationally expensive, then you should avoid buying it, and if you already own it, you should attempt to sell at the optimal price.
Yes . and how do you define optimal ? rational ?
Fair value is known only in hindsight , not looking forward . Despite what your financial advisor may sell you on ...
Optimal = the best pricing you can get
Rational = using logic as opposed to emotion
Price is what you pay. Value is what you receive in return.
Bubbles are not based on value, but on the irrational prices people are willing to pay.
That is true! I totally agree with that. I wouldn't pay $905K for that Silverleaf home that MM sold. But that doesn't stop some othersuckermotivated buyer from getting emotionally wrapped up in their head and make anirrationalemotionally-driven offer (well above appraisal) to get what they want. If they SEE value, then more power to them.
I don't necessarily think housing is in a bubble, but it is expensive. My first two posts on this thread were regarding the bond market, which is near an all time high.
this tells me you don't know much about the bond market or how it works ...