Losses Outside of Irvine

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Holy reality check, Batman!

From ZipRealty:

1310 NORTH CATALPA AVENUE, Anaheim

Bedrooms: 4

Full Baths: 2

Square Feet: 1,584

Lot Size: 6,000 Sq. Ft.

Year Built: 1954

Listing Date: 08/13/07

On Market: 59 days

Last Sale: 05/17/06

Sales Price: $599,000

Price Reduced: 09/12/07 -- $629,900 to $520,000

Price Reduced: 09/22/07 -- $520,000 to $450,000

Price Reduced: 10/04/07 -- $450,000 to $449,000

Price Reduced: 10/10/07 -- $449,000 to $389,000

Price/sqft Based on List Price: $246

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1051261
 
Cayci - GOOD FIND!

I haven't had my morning caffeine yet, but I think it's a $229,450 loss or 38% assuming 5% re commission.

And it STILL hasn't sold.
 
Here's a lovely property in Santa Ana that's 32% off. Too bad I didn't buy it back in 1988 for $4,500

1318 North Spurgeon ST #3

Santa Ana, CA 92701

Price: $165,900

Sales History

Date

Price

Appreciation

03/26/2007

$244,689

3.6%/yr

11/09/2004

$225,000

36.9%/yr

01/22/2004

$175,000

24.7%/yr

05/12/1999

$62,000

>1,000%/yr

09/04/1998

$4,471

-76.2%/yr

04/25/1997

$31,500

-82.9%/yr

09/19/1996

$90,258

0.5%/yr

11/22/1989

$87,500

--

http://redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=659942
 
I'm not quite sure what this property is in La Jolla, but it looks like someone is going to lose more than $3 million.

Price: $1,250,000

Sales History

Date Price

11/01/2004 $4,550,000

10/14/2003 $1,215,000

-

401 BONAIR ST

La Jolla, CA 92037

Beds: 2

Baths: 2.5

Sq. Ft.: 1,620

$/Sq. Ft.: $772

Lot Size: -

Lot: Common Interest

PROPERTY TYPE: Single Family Attached, Condominium

YEAR BUILT: 2007

STORIES: 3 Story

VIEW: Ocean, Other (See Remarks)

SUBDIVISION: Windansea

County: San Diego

MLS#: 066096466

Status: Active

On Redfin: 328 days

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=392713
 
ABC123 - i dont think they will be losing 3 million. They probably bought some older building, tore it down, and now built condos there with each unit selling for over $1 million.
 
Another big loser.

Price: $560,000

Last sold 07/19/2006 $680,000

21286 Forest Meadow

Lake Forest, CA 92630

Beds: 4

Baths: 3

Sq. Ft.: 1,644

$/Sq. Ft.: $341

Lot Size: 5,085 sq. ft.

Property Type: Single Family, Detached

Style: Contemporary

Year Built: 1978

Stories: 2 Levels

County: Orange

MLS#: I956392

Status: Active

On Redfin: 1 day

and another

Price: $725,900

Last Sale 10/31/2005 $845,000

Redfin Savings: $14,518*

29822 White Otter LN

Laguna Niguel, CA 92677

Beds: 4

Baths: 2

Sq. Ft.: 2,158

$/Sq. Ft.: $336

Lot Size: 5,000 sq. ft.

Type: Single Family Residence

Style: Other

Year Built: 1979

Stories: One Level

View(s): City Lights, Hills, Mountain, Panoramic

Area: Laguna Niguel West, North of Crown Valley, West of Niguel

County: Orange

MLS#: S508885

Status: Active

On Redfin: 1 day
 
A $160,000 hit, assuming 5% commission.

I am guessing the last sale was the lender taking back the property in a trustee sale, since no flipper would buy a property and try to sell it at a steep lose after only 2 months. I wonder how much did the foreclosed ex-owner pay for this house? Is this a case of home ATM gone bad?

List Price: $675,900

Last Sale: $804,473 (6/18/2007)

6 Sachem WAY

Ladera Ranch, CA 92694

SFR

2,330 sq. ft.

4 beds

lot size: 3,800

year built: 2002

MLS# S500147

days on Redfin: 66
 
I'm looking at the one on Gingham in RSM since that 31% loss on a single family home does look significant, but I have to agree with Daedalus that from a historical perspective it's still not exacly a bargain.

We're looking at an average $90,000 appreciation every year from 1999 until the 2005 sale. That's crazy!

Even backing off to the current asking price of $800,000 it averages out to $46,000+ appreciation a year every year from 1999-2007

Yes it sucks for the 2005 buyer, but how could anyone really believe appreciation rates like that were sustainable?
 
Almost 130,000 with commision

30902 CLUBHOUSE DRIVE #7 J, Laguna Niguel, CA 92677

List Price: $400,000

Last Sale: 11/29/06

Sales Price: $510,000

Bedrooms: 2

Full Baths: 2

Partial Baths: 0

Square Feet: 1,059

Lot Size: N/A

Year Built: 1989

Listing Date: 10/12/07

On Market: 2 days

Type: CONDO/TH

Status: ACTIVE

MLS #: S509244
 
Price: $549,900

last sale 04/20/2005 $617,500

18 Passaflora LN

Mission Viejo, CA 92694

Beds: 3

Baths: 2.5

Sq. Ft.: 2,106

$/Sq. Ft.: $261

Type: Condominium

Style: Contemporary/Modern

Year Built: 2005

Stories: Three or More Levels

Area: Ladera Ranch

County: Orange

MLS#: S508998

Status: Active

On Redfin: 1 day
 
260,000 loss

25332 ADELANTO DRIVE, Laguna Niguel, CA 92677

List Price: $700,000

Last Sale: 03/16/06

Sales Price: $930,000

Bedrooms: 3

Full Baths: 2

Partial Baths: 0

Square Feet: 2,300

Lot Size: 8,500 Sq. Ft.

Year Built: 1974

Listing Date: 10/10/07

On Market: 4 days

Type: SFR

Status: ACTIVE

MLS #: S508921
 
awgee,

I guess I'm new enough to CA real estate that I just can't see that $800,000 price tag as a bargain, even if it is a huge reduction off the original million+ dollar list price, good neighborhood and/or schools notwithstanding.

Say you buy into the industry line that housing is a safe investment that always appreciates over time and you allow for 5% yearly increases, every year, no peaks or valleys, from the sale in 1998 to the present.

Assuming the1998 price of $380,000 was in line with market conditions and neighborhood comps, and allowing my hypothetical 5% appreciation rate; that house on Gingham should be worth roughly $580,000 today.

Even if you allow for 8% yearly increases, it would put the price tag at around $760,000 so still under the current bargain basement, slashed 8 times since April, price of $800,000

IMO allowing for steady price increases of 5%-8% every year is being generous (Of course to be upfront... I don't think any investment, housing included, is a sure thing that is guaranteed to ALWAYS appreciate)

BTW, no personal experience with Wagon Wheel Elementary or Las Flores Middle, but I have it on good authority that if you attend Tesoro High School and DON'T live 'behind the gates' you better have pretty thick skin, so sharing schools with Coto while not actually living there may not necessarily be a positive thing.
 
Axoim, you forget one variable in your analysis. RATES.

Rates were much higher the late 90s. You must calibrate for the much lower rates currently. We all know that most people don't buy houses with cash, but by borrowing money. If the cost of borrowing is much lower, the price can be higher than avg increase of 5% yoy, and maintain the same affordability.
 
Axiom - Hold on there Babalouie. I never said an $800,000 price tag was a bargain. All I said was that you get the same schools in Wagon Wheel that you do in Coto for much less cost.

My preference for leasing is Wagon Wheel because you get the schools for less monthly. My preference for owning is Coto because you get the extra appreciation, and the security of being behind the gates. Don't get me wrong. I do not think living behind the gates is perfectly secure, but if you look up the Megan's law sites, you will see there are no listed sexual criminals in Coto, but there are a few "outside".

And I would NEVER say that so cal re always appreciates. How stupid do you think I am? Well, don't answer that.

I tend to think that if you wait, you will be able to purchase that same home in Wagon Wheel for much less in inflation adjusted dollars, in the future.

Your good authority is pretty good. But, the truth is that your kids have better have a pretty thick skin if they go to Tesoro, even if they do live behind the gates. And the same is true of Troy, CDM, Uni, etc. The only school which shows great performance and doesn't include a high amount of social pressure is Orange County High School of the Arts. And at OCHSA there can still be a large amount of other types of pressure including academics and performing.
 
I posed today on a 2003 rollback in RSM:

http://www.southoctracker.com/2007/10/rsm-condo-falls-beneath-2003-price.html

Some details:

8 Mirlo #872 beds, 2 baths, 882 sq ft

Asking price: $259,900

Purchase price: $298,260

Purchase date: 1/30/2007

Other recent sales history: 12/8/2005: $352,500

6/30/2004: $315,000

12/24/2003: $260,000

Listing description: LOWER CONDO UNIT W/ W/ D HOOK UPS, SMALL PATIO, FIREPLACE, UPDATED KITCHEN W/ NEWER CABINETS. NICE COMPLEX, OVERLOOKS POOL, CARPORT PARKING.

Potential loss (incl 6% selling costs): $53,954

Potential % decline from last sale (not incl. selling costs): 13%

Potential % decline from peak sale in 2005: 26%
 
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