Looking Back

J

jyeh74

New member
A couple of years ago, we had the opportunity to be in the first phases of both Strada and Capella.  Wife wanted Strada because of the cul-de-sacs.  I thought Capella would be a better investment because of guard gates.  Flash forward two years and looking at the resales, I should have listened to the boss.  I don't get it.  All resales are TUSD according to the listings.  Is it because no one cares about the gates and want to be away from the toll?

STRADA Resaleshttps://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/60-Quarter-Horse-92602/home/109734609
($637/ sq ft) pending
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/51-Quarter-Horse-92602/home/109734746
($534/ sq ft)

CAPELLA Resaleshttps://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/135-Bridle-Path-92602/home/58551635
($456/ sq ft)
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/139-Long-Fence-92602/home/87759831
($438/ sq ft)
 
Can't speak for the Strada properties but those 2 Capella resales were also desperate sellers just wanting to get out. One sudden translocation out of state for work and the other a move up into Savierro so they just wanted out of the Capella property.
60 Quarter horse was highly upgraded and a uniquely large lot the was done up very nicely.
It'll be interesting to see how it plays out in the long run
 
Paris said:
Can't speak for the Strada properties but those 2 Capella resales were also desperate sellers just wanting to get out. One sudden translocation out of state for work and the other a move up into Savierro so they just wanted out of the Capella property.
60 Quarter horse was highly upgraded and a uniquely large lot the was done up very nicely.
It'll be interesting to see how it plays out in the long run
Click to expand...

It shouldn't matter whether or not they were desperate sellers.  If something is underpriced, the market will adjust itself and the home should sell for higher.  Both of these Capella homes sold lower price per sq ft than the Strada resales.  It's got to be the proximity to the tolls that's killing Capella resale.  I know people usually don't like Ipac floorplans so it's not the layout they like.
 
My 0.02 cents would be on IUSD vs TUSD, as I don't see lower $/sq ft homes on IUSD website.
 
OCLuvr said:
My 0.02 cents would be on IUSD vs TUSD, as I don't see lower $/sq ft homes on IUSD website.
Click to expand...

Someone should verify because the Redfin links indicate that the Strada resale homes are both TUSD.
 
irvineboy said:
Paris said:
Can't speak for the Strada properties but those 2 Capella resales were also desperate sellers just wanting to get out. One sudden translocation out of state for work and the other a move up into Savierro so they just wanted out of the Capella property.
60 Quarter horse was highly upgraded and a uniquely large lot the was done up very nicely.
It'll be interesting to see how it plays out in the long run
Click to expand...

It shouldn't matter whether or not they were desperate sellers.  If something is underpriced, the market will adjust itself and the home should sell for higher.  Both of these Capella homes sold lower price per sq ft than the Strada resales.  It's got to be the proximity to the tolls that's killing Capella resale.  I know people usually don't like Ipac floorplans so it's not the layout they like.
Click to expand...

If it's underpriced it will sell, desperate sellers or not assuming they aren't upside down. A realtor would buy anything they think it's significantly underpriced just to flip it.

This home was priced under $2 million. Closed 23 days after it was listed for above asking.
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/25-Clear-Crk-92620/home/4790370
 
It won't necessarily go for over ask unless there is a bidding war. For that it would need to be a significant price drop that attracts several buyers quickly. With so many options in this price range and a lot of new inventory still out there unless these homes are selling for $1.2 or some crazy low price I don't think it would attract such a quick bidding war. Desperate sellers are more likely to just take the first low ball offer to get out vs waiting for several offers to come in. That was my only point. Anyway any opinions from our TI realtors - USC?
Interesting that both these Capella homes were a Plan 2. 135 bridle path did get close to ask.
We'll see what happens in the long run once most of OH 1 is built out and new inventory dwindles down. It's too early to tell. It'll be interesting to see how gate vs non-gate and IUSD vs TUSD plays out.
 
Personally, when I choose my primary residence, I choose it based more on factors of where I want to live, what kind of environment, who my neighbors are going to be, etc etc, not based off of my perception of what my flip and profit potential are going to be in a few years. Do most people not do this?  I'm not treating my home like an ATM. Its a consumption item and a place to live. This is very different mind set from when I'm evaluating potential properties that are to be investments from the get-go.

I knew that I could have chosen Newport, Quail Hill, Turtle Rock, Laguna Altura, any area south of the 405/Uni high district, for likely better price appreciation potential, but they don't work as well for ME, in terms of commute, schools, etc. Heck, even if I had chosen a house in Stonegate, Cypress Village or Eastwood, I'd probably get better price appreciation on my home per sq ft-wise, but then I'd actually have to live there. Similarly, I thought going in, if I pick a house in IUSD, I'll probably be able to sell it for more in the end, but again, I'd actually have to live there and send my kids to IUSD  (I purposely wanted Beckman high zone). One thing that I like about my TUSD/OH area is that there seems to be relatively few FCBs, investors and absentee landlords--mostly all owner occupied and domestic buyers from what I have seen). Many people who sold a previous house in older parts of Irvine and moving here. Even when they're Asian, they're either 2nd generation or been here 20+ years. Maybe that's why the prices are not going up as fast. There's less demand from international investor driving up prices like they do in other newer parts of Irvine.  To me, less robust price appreciation is a worthy price to pay to avoid that kind of living situation.

 
nyc to oc said:
Personally, when I choose my primary residence, I choose it based more on factors of where I want to live, what kind of environment, who my neighbors are going to be, etc etc, not based off of my perception of what my flip and profit potential are going to be in a few years. Do most people not do this?  I'm not treating my home like an ATM. Its a consumption item and a place to live. This is very different mind set from when I'm evaluating potential properties that are to be investments from the get-go.

I knew that I could have chosen Newport, Quail Hill, Turtle Rock, Laguna Altura, any area south of the 405/Uni high district, for likely better price appreciation potential, but they don't work as well for ME, in terms of commute, schools, etc. Heck, even if I had chosen a house in Stonegate, Cypress Village or Eastwood, I'd probably get better price appreciation on my home per sq ft-wise, but then I'd actually have to live there. Similarly, I thought going in, if I pick a house in IUSD, I'll probably be able to sell it for more in the end, but again, I'd actually have to live there and send my kids to IUSD  (I purposely wanted Beckman high zone). One thing that I like about my TUSD/OH area is that there seems to be relatively few FCBs, investors and absentee landlords--mostly all owner occupied and domestic buyers from what I have seen). Many people who sold a previous house in older parts of Irvine and moving here. Even when they're Asian, they're either 2nd generation or been here 20+ years. Maybe that's why the prices are not going up as fast. There's less demand from international investor driving up prices like they do in other newer parts of Irvine.  To me, less robust price appreciation is a worthy price to pay to avoid that kind of living situation.
Click to expand...

this seems to be the most reasonable explanation. The only issue is - it doesn't explain why the gated areas in OH like La vita have soared - how have other parts of the gated side of OH appreciated? Capella for some reason just seems like an anomaly.
 
Laguna21 said:
nyc to oc said:
Personally, when I choose my primary residence, I choose it based more on factors of where I want to live, what kind of environment, who my neighbors are going to be, etc etc, not based off of my perception of what my flip and profit potential are going to be in a few years. Do most people not do this?  I'm not treating my home like an ATM. Its a consumption item and a place to live. This is very different mind set from when I'm evaluating potential properties that are to be investments from the get-go.

I knew that I could have chosen Newport, Quail Hill, Turtle Rock, Laguna Altura, any area south of the 405/Uni high district, for likely better price appreciation potential, but they don't work as well for ME, in terms of commute, schools, etc. Heck, even if I had chosen a house in Stonegate, Cypress Village or Eastwood, I'd probably get better price appreciation on my home per sq ft-wise, but then I'd actually have to live there. Similarly, I thought going in, if I pick a house in IUSD, I'll probably be able to sell it for more in the end, but again, I'd actually have to live there and send my kids to IUSD  (I purposely wanted Beckman high zone). One thing that I like about my TUSD/OH area is that there seems to be relatively few FCBs, investors and absentee landlords--mostly all owner occupied and domestic buyers from what I have seen). Many people who sold a previous house in older parts of Irvine and moving here. Even when they're Asian, they're either 2nd generation or been here 20+ years. Maybe that's why the prices are not going up as fast. There's less demand from international investor driving up prices like they do in other newer parts of Irvine.  To me, less robust price appreciation is a worthy price to pay to avoid that kind of living situation.
Click to expand...

this seems to be the most reasonable explanation. The only issue is - it doesn't explain why the gated areas in OH like La vita have soared - how have other parts of the gated side of OH appreciated? Capella for some reason just seems like an anomaly.
Click to expand...

La Vita is unique product due to large lot sizes and views (for some of the properties). Especially La Vita Plan 4. The non-view lots at La Vita don't sell as well or as fast, I believe, but perhaps the view lots at La Vita set a high bar pulling those non-unique lots up with them.

There really hasn't been much if any resale in the other tracts of Groves like Messina, Saviero, Vicenza, Amelia, so you can't really judge. It supports my idea that most of the buyers there bought for themselves to live in for the long term, not speculators/investors trying to make a quick profit. Except maybe La Vita owners--its too tempting to take the cash and run! Seems like some speculators trying to unload (flip for profit after 2 years) in Trevi, but I don't think they have had much success in getting their superinflated asking prices.
 
irvineboy said:
A couple of years ago, we had the opportunity to be in the first phases of both Strada and Capella.  Wife wanted Strada because of the cul-de-sacs.  I thought Capella would be a better investment because of guard gates.  Flash forward two years and looking at the resales, I should have listened to the boss.  I don't get it.  All resales are TUSD according to the listings.  Is it because no one cares about the gates and want to be away from the toll?

STRADA Resaleshttps://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/60-Quarter-Horse-92602/home/109734609
($637/ sq ft) pending
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/51-Quarter-Horse-92602/home/109734746
($534/ sq ft)

CAPELLA Resaleshttps://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/135-Bridle-Path-92602/home/58551635
($456/ sq ft)
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/139-Long-Fence-92602/home/87759831
($438/ sq ft)
Click to expand...
Could lot size be a factor?  51 Quarter Horse has a 6k+ sq ft lot.
 
nyc to oc said:
Laguna21 said:
nyc to oc said:
Personally, when I choose my primary residence, I choose it based more on factors of where I want to live, what kind of environment, who my neighbors are going to be, etc etc, not based off of my perception of what my flip and profit potential are going to be in a few years. Do most people not do this?  I'm not treating my home like an ATM. Its a consumption item and a place to live. This is very different mind set from when I'm evaluating potential properties that are to be investments from the get-go.

I knew that I could have chosen Newport, Quail Hill, Turtle Rock, Laguna Altura, any area south of the 405/Uni high district, for likely better price appreciation potential, but they don't work as well for ME, in terms of commute, schools, etc. Heck, even if I had chosen a house in Stonegate, Cypress Village or Eastwood, I'd probably get better price appreciation on my home per sq ft-wise, but then I'd actually have to live there. Similarly, I thought going in, if I pick a house in IUSD, I'll probably be able to sell it for more in the end, but again, I'd actually have to live there and send my kids to IUSD  (I purposely wanted Beckman high zone). One thing that I like about my TUSD/OH area is that there seems to be relatively few FCBs, investors and absentee landlords--mostly all owner occupied and domestic buyers from what I have seen). Many people who sold a previous house in older parts of Irvine and moving here. Even when they're Asian, they're either 2nd generation or been here 20+ years. Maybe that's why the prices are not going up as fast. There's less demand from international investor driving up prices like they do in other newer parts of Irvine.  To me, less robust price appreciation is a worthy price to pay to avoid that kind of living situation.
Click to expand...

this seems to be the most reasonable explanation. The only issue is - it doesn't explain why the gated areas in OH like La vita have soared - how have other parts of the gated side of OH appreciated? Capella for some reason just seems like an anomaly.
Click to expand...

La Vita is unique product due to large lot sizes and views (for some of the properties). Especially La Vita Plan 4. The non-view lots at La Vita don't sell as well or as fast, I believe, but perhaps the view lots at La Vita set a high bar pulling those non-unique lots up with them.

There really hasn't been much if any resale in the other tracts of Groves like Messina, Saviero, Vicenza, Amelia, so you can't really judge. It supports my idea that most of the buyers there bought for themselves to live in for the long term, not speculators/investors trying to make a quick profit. Except maybe La Vita owners--its too tempting to take the cash and run! Seems like some speculators trying to unload (flip for profit after 2 years) in Trevi, but I don't think they have had much success in getting their superinflated asking prices.
Click to expand...

La Vita has impressive floorplans, nice lot sizes, and killer views on the view side. Trevi/Amelia speculators have a price ceiling now (The Vistas), however in the long run the Vistas may pull Trevi/Amelia up along with it.
 
Paris said:
It won't necessarily go for over ask unless there is a bidding war. For that it would need to be a significant price drop that attracts several buyers quickly. With so many options in this price range and a lot of new inventory still out there unless these homes are selling for $1.2 or some crazy low price I don't think it would attract such a quick bidding war. Desperate sellers are more likely to just take the first low ball offer to get out vs waiting for several offers to come in. That was my only point. Anyway any opinions from our TI realtors - USC?
Interesting that both these Capella homes were a Plan 2. 135 bridle path did get close to ask.
We'll see what happens in the long run once most of OH 1 is built out and new inventory dwindles down. It's too early to tell. It'll be interesting to see how gate vs non-gate and IUSD vs TUSD plays out.
Click to expand...

Not USC, but am a realtor that went to USC so close enough?  :p

For most sellers in the prime affordability range, given this market, even highly motivated sellers know it's hot and have no problems waiting it out an extra couple weeks for multiple offers. Purely anecdotal, just what I've seen during this early part of 2017.
 
irvineboy said:
A couple of years ago, we had the opportunity to be in the first phases of both Strada and Capella.  Wife wanted Strada because of the cul-de-sacs.  I thought Capella would be a better investment because of guard gates.  Flash forward two years and looking at the resales, I should have listened to the boss.  I don't get it.  All resales are TUSD according to the listings.  Is it because no one cares about the gates and want to be away from the toll?

STRADA Resaleshttps://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/60-Quarter-Horse-92602/home/109734609
($637/ sq ft) pending
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/51-Quarter-Horse-92602/home/109734746
($534/ sq ft)

CAPELLA Resaleshttps://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/135-Bridle-Path-92602/home/58551635
($456/ sq ft)
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/139-Long-Fence-92602/home/87759831
($438/ sq ft)
Click to expand...

$$/sf doesn't really scale linearly and the jury is still out re Strada vs Capella, true for really any of the resales in OH.

You need more time to determine the better investment, what we've seen at this point can't even be considered investing in real estate - it's speculating on short term trends.

and sorry for spamming this thread, this board needs a multiquote button!
 
nyc to oc said:
Personally, when I choose my primary residence, I choose it based more on factors of where I want to live, what kind of environment, who my neighbors are going to be, etc etc, not based off of my perception of what my flip and profit potential are going to be in a few years. Do most people not do this?  I'm not treating my home like an ATM. Its a consumption item and a place to live. This is very different mind set from when I'm evaluating potential properties that are to be investments from the get-go.

I knew that I could have chosen Newport, Quail Hill, Turtle Rock, Laguna Altura, any area south of the 405/Uni high district, for likely better price appreciation potential, but they don't work as well for ME, in terms of commute, schools, etc. Heck, even if I had chosen a house in Stonegate, Cypress Village or Eastwood, I'd probably get better price appreciation on my home per sq ft-wise, but then I'd actually have to live there. Similarly, I thought going in, if I pick a house in IUSD, I'll probably be able to sell it for more in the end, but again, I'd actually have to live there and send my kids to IUSD  (I purposely wanted Beckman high zone). One thing that I like about my TUSD/OH area is that there seems to be relatively few FCBs, investors and absentee landlords--mostly all owner occupied and domestic buyers from what I have seen). Many people who sold a previous house in older parts of Irvine and moving here. Even when they're Asian, they're either 2nd generation or been here 20+ years. Maybe that's why the prices are not going up as fast. There's less demand from international investor driving up prices like they do in other newer parts of Irvine.  To me, less robust price appreciation is a worthy price to pay to avoid that kind of living situation.
Click to expand...

Yes. ALL OF THIS. I'm also specifically intent on staying in Beckman as we sell our current home and look for an upgrade in Tustin Ranch, West Irvine, OH. Appreciation has nothing to do with it for me -- just where I will enjoy living and raising my family.
 
BunkMoreland said:
nyc to oc said:
Personally, when I choose my primary residence, I choose it based more on factors of where I want to live, what kind of environment, who my neighbors are going to be, etc etc, not based off of my perception of what my flip and profit potential are going to be in a few years. Do most people not do this?  I'm not treating my home like an ATM. Its a consumption item and a place to live. This is very different mind set from when I'm evaluating potential properties that are to be investments from the get-go.

I knew that I could have chosen Newport, Quail Hill, Turtle Rock, Laguna Altura, any area south of the 405/Uni high district, for likely better price appreciation potential, but they don't work as well for ME, in terms of commute, schools, etc. Heck, even if I had chosen a house in Stonegate, Cypress Village or Eastwood, I'd probably get better price appreciation on my home per sq ft-wise, but then I'd actually have to live there. Similarly, I thought going in, if I pick a house in IUSD, I'll probably be able to sell it for more in the end, but again, I'd actually have to live there and send my kids to IUSD  (I purposely wanted Beckman high zone). One thing that I like about my TUSD/OH area is that there seems to be relatively few FCBs, investors and absentee landlords--mostly all owner occupied and domestic buyers from what I have seen). Many people who sold a previous house in older parts of Irvine and moving here. Even when they're Asian, they're either 2nd generation or been here 20+ years. Maybe that's why the prices are not going up as fast. There's less demand from international investor driving up prices like they do in other newer parts of Irvine.  To me, less robust price appreciation is a worthy price to pay to avoid that kind of living situation.
Click to expand...

Yes. ALL OF THIS. I'm also specifically intent on staying in Beckman as we sell our current home and look for an upgrade in Tustin Ranch, West Irvine, OH. Appreciation has nothing to do with it for me -- just where I will enjoy living and raising my family.
Click to expand...
The nice thing is in this neck of the woods there are so many options that check all of the boxes for people, as well as providing for maintaining/increasing property values.  The best choice for you and your family may not purely based on future appreciation (who can predict what areas will do better than others anyway) but, all other things being equal, that is not a bad way to make a decision. If you're in it for the long haul (7 years +) and can make the payments, you'll usually end up ahead.
 
I also think that it's a bit early to make the determination of whether Capella or Strada turns out to be a better investment.  You really have to normalize the value between all of the homes...lot size, location of the lot, upgrades, etc.  It is true that the market starts to thin out a good bit once you start getting around $1.5m+.  One thing that might contribute to the initial strong showings of Strada that hasn't been mentioned is that Irvine Pacific homes are HEAVILY marketed in the Chinese community, including over in China.  Remember that the Irvine Company are masters of marketing so these buyers that have seen their marketing may have a higher perception of Irvine Pacific homes versus other nation/regional builders.  Either home will appreciate into the future, especially once Orchard Hills and the rest of Irvine is built out.
 
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