Loan Mod? No Problema.

awgee_IHB

awgee_IHB

New member
And after reading CR's post, <a href="http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/09/one-family-option-arm-failed.html">"One Family: Option ARM, failed Modification, Health Issues, Bankruptcy, and more"</a>, another great piece, this one full of the facts, by Tanta, <a href="http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2008/10/indymac-fdic-mortgage-modification-plan.html">"IndyMac-FDIC Mortgage Modification Plan: Still in the Real World"</a>
 
I read that same article in the OCRegister this morning and it made me think of NewSkip. Where is the mod for these people? Upside down and high DTI... perfect candidate.
 
?I understand I took a risk,? said [Dean Janis, a Southern California lawyer who bought a $950,000 home in 2004] ?But I did not anticipate that the real estate market would go down 30 percent.? He talked with Wells Fargo about his options, and the lender said he had none.



<a href="http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/09/interest-only-loans-another-time-bomb.html">"Interest Only Loans - Another Time Bomb"</a> on Calculated Risk
 
Is this what the bottom looks like?



<strong><em>"Therefore, even if HAMP is a total success, we should still expect millions of foreclosures, as President Obama noted when he launched the program in February."</em></strong>





A quote from <a href="http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/09/treasury-millions-more-foreclosures.html">Calculated Risk</a>
 
Employment (or at least income) is essential to modifications.
 
"Even before the current crisis, when home prices were climbing, there were still many hundreds of thousands of foreclosures."



Yes, foreclosures are a fact of life and always have been. What is the point being made here?
 
[quote author="NewportSkipper" date=1252536499]"Even before the current crisis, when home prices were climbing, there were still many hundreds of thousands of foreclosures."



Yes, foreclosures are a fact of life and always have been. What is the point being made here?</blockquote>


<a href="http://archive.dqnews.com/AA2000FOR01.shtm">California Foreclosures January 2000</a>



<blockquote>Lending institutions started foreclosure proceedings on 101,053 homeowners statewide during 1999. That was down 17.7 percent from 122,797 for the prior year, according to DataQuick.</blockquote>


<a href="http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2009/News/California/CA-Foreclosures/RRFor090422.aspx">Golden State Mortgage Defaults Jump to Record High April 2009</a>



<blockquote>A total of 135,431 default notices were sent out during the January- to-March period. That was up 80.0 percent from 75,230 for the prior quarter and up 19.0 percent from 113,809 in first quarter 2008, according to MDA DataQuick. </blockquote>


The ability for the market to absorb these foreclosures and the negative effect that this absorbtion will have on price would be one point.



The other point may be the inability of any program to stop this tidal wave with loan mods.
 
[quote author="trrenter" date=1252537312][quote author="NewportSkipper" date=1252536499]"Even before the current crisis, when home prices were climbing, there were still many hundreds of thousands of foreclosures."



Yes, foreclosures are a fact of life and always have been. What is the point being made here?</blockquote>


<a href="http://archive.dqnews.com/AA2000FOR01.shtm">California Foreclosures January 2000</a>



<blockquote>Lending institutions started foreclosure proceedings on 101,053 homeowners statewide during 1999. That was down 17.7 percent from 122,797 for the prior year, according to DataQuick.</blockquote>


<a href="http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2009/News/California/CA-Foreclosures/RRFor090422.aspx">Golden State Mortgage Defaults Jump to Record High April 2009</a>



<blockquote>A total of 135,431 default notices were sent out during the January- to-March period. That was up 80.0 percent from 75,230 for the prior quarter and up 19.0 percent from 113,809 in first quarter 2008, according to MDA DataQuick. </blockquote>


The ability for the market to absorb these foreclosures and the negative effect that this absorbtion will have on price would be one point.



The other point may be the inability of any program to stop this tidal wave with loan mods.[/qu/]



The first quarter was a catch up period. The rest of your thoughts are mere speculation. The vast majority of foreclosures are in a handful of places that have long since stabilized.
 
[quote/] author="NewportSkipper" date="1252537427"][quote author="trrenter" date=1252537312][quote author="NewportSkipper" date=1252536499]"Even before the current crisis, when home prices were climbing, there were still many hundreds of thousands of foreclosures."



Yes, foreclosures are a fact of life and always have been. What is the point being made here?</blockquote>


<a href="http://archive.dqnews.com/AA2000FOR01.shtm">California Foreclosures January 2000</a>



<blockquote>Lending institutions started foreclosure proceedings on 101,053 homeowners statewide during 1999. That was down 17.7 percent from 122,797 for the prior year, according to DataQuick.</blockquote>


<a href="http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2009/News/California/CA-Foreclosures/RRFor090422.aspx">Golden State Mortgage Defaults Jump to Record High April 2009</a>



<blockquote>A total of 135,431 default notices were sent out during the January- to-March period. That was up 80.0 percent from 75,230 for the prior quarter and up 19.0 percent from 113,809 in first quarter 2008, according to MDA DataQuick. </blockquote>


The ability for the market to absorb these foreclosures and the negative effect that this absorbtion will have on price would be one point.



The other point may be the inability of any program to stop this tidal wave with loan mods.[quote/]



The first quarter was a catch up period. The rest of your thoughts are mere speculation. The vast majority of foreclosures are in a handful of places that have long since stabilized.</blockquote>


<strong>There were 121,673 default notices filed in second quarter 2008</strong> and 94,240 in third quarter 2008, during which a new state law took effect requiring lenders to take added steps aimed at keeping troubled borrowers in their homes.



Yes it was a catch up but look at the second quater of 2008.



Still higher then the entire year of 1999. Even the lower third quarter of 2008 with 94,200 was close to the entire year of 1999.



By the way if all of these foreclosures are in a handful of places that have long since stabilized how can that area be stabalized? Have all of these foreclosures been sold?
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1252534657]

A quote from <a href="http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/09/treasury-millions-more-foreclosures.html">Calculated Risk</a></blockquote>


<blockquote>[W]e recognize that any modification program seeking to avoid preventable foreclosures has limits, HAMP included. Even before the current crisis, when home prices were climbing, there were still many <strong>hundreds of thousands</strong> of foreclosures. Therefore, even if HAMP is a total success, we should still expect <strong>millions</strong> of foreclosures, as President Obama noted when he launched the program in February.</blockquote>


I'm not an economist or anything, but when your best case scenario is an order of magnitude change for the worse it is cause for concern and is bound to have an effect.
 
<a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/09/09/making-home-affordable-12_n_280389.html">Making Home Affordable: 12 Percent Of Eligible Borrowers Helped So Far</a>



<blockquote>Servicers that offer modifications get $1,000 upfront and another $1,000 per year so long as the homeowner stays current, and homeowners can get $1,000 a year toward reducing their principal for up to five years.</blockquote>


<blockquote>The nation's largest, Bank of America, had done modifications for a mere 4 percent of eligible borrowers. In August, Bank of America improved to 7 percent. </blockquote>


I'm underwhelmed.



<blockquote>"Moreover, even if HAMP operated at its full capacity as envisioned by Treasury officials, HAMP's loan modifications still would be substantially outpaced by foreclosures, and the modifications themselves lack the mandated principal reductions that many believe are necessary to stem the foreclosure tide."</blockquote>
 
"DES MOINES, Iowa ? Wells Fargo & Co. on Wednesday said it completed 33,172 trial and final modifications under the Home Affordable Modification Program through the end of August.



That represents a 64 percent increase in the past 30 days, the bank said.



The government-sponsored program aims at helping people who can no longer afford to make their monthly mortgage payments.



The San Francisco-based bank said it expects to exceed its goal under the program, which is about 60,000 modifications.



<span style="color: red;">Wells Fargo said it also modified 251,244 home loans using its own programs, bringing the total number of modifications or trial modifications started or completed so far this year, to 284,416.</span>



Wells Fargo services one of every six mortgage loans in the U.S."



http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/ap/business/6609652.html



Someone told me that there are no private loan mods.
 
"The progress report, the second issued by the government, says that 360,165 homeowners who were at least two months behind in payments received relief through August. A month ago, just 9%, or 235,247 borrowers, were in trial modifications."



http://money.cnn.com/2009/09/09/news/economy/Obama_foreclosure_rescue/index.htm?cnn=yes



If other banks are like Wells, and do many more private mods, the number helped is huge and growing.

<span style="color: red;">

If you're counting, the MOM increase is 124,918. And that's just the MHA program. Add-in private and they might have fixed a half million loans in one month.</span>



That also doesn't appear to count mods of people who are not 60 days behind.
 
<a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Treasury-says-millions-more-rb-1620457917.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=1&asset;=&ccode;=">Treasury says millions more foreclosures coming</a>



But the selling season....
 
[quote author="NewportSkipper" date=1252541364]

<span style="color: red;">Wells Fargo said it also modified 251,244 home loans using its own programs, bringing the total number of modifications or trial modifications started or completed so far this year, to 284,416.</span>

</blockquote>
I need a bit of perspective here. I assume the above numbers are national.



How many total NODs/NTSs have there been in the country this year?



How many foreclosures?



BTW: Since you can do the red color font thing, you can also do the URL links... just put {URL}stuff{/URL} around your stuff and replace the {} with [].



EDIT: Sorry... take out the <> too.
 
This is a couple of months old, but close enough.



"Foreclosure Starts Hit One Million So Far This Year"





<a href="http://<http://www.responsiblelending.org/media-center/press-releases/archives/foreclosure-starts-hit-one-million-so-far-this-year.html>"><http://www.responsiblelending.org/media-center/press-releases/archives/foreclosure-starts-hit-one-million-so-far-this-year.html></a>



(Thanks)





I guess they're expecting as many as 2.5 million starts. No matter how you slice it, 100k-500k (or more) helped in one month is huge.
 
[quote author="NewportSkipper" date=1252541364]"DES MOINES, Iowa ? Wells Fargo & Co. on Wednesday said it completed 33,172 trial and final modifications under the Home Affordable Modification Program through the end of August.



That represents a 64 percent increase in the past 30 days, the bank said.



The government-sponsored program aims at helping people who can no longer afford to make their monthly mortgage payments.



The San Francisco-based bank said it expects to exceed its goal under the program, which is about 60,000 modifications.



<span style="color: red;">Wells Fargo said it also modified 251,244 home loans using its own programs, bringing the total number of modifications or trial modifications started or completed so far this year, to 284,416.</span>



Wells Fargo services one of every six mortgage loans in the U.S."



http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/ap/business/6609652.html



Someone told me that there are no private loan mods.</blockquote>


Any commentary on the sustinability of the modifications? Obviously the redefault rate for mods from prior periods has been egregious at 50%+ with 6 months (and climbing). However, those figures were as of last December, and may indicate the insufficiency of earlier modifcations efforts. I have been unable to find more recent figures on redefaults...
 
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123875775797386333.html



More recent data on mofications. Looks like the more recent mods, which include payment reduction, are far more stable the mods from '08. There is mention at the end the servicers of their own loans are far more successful with mods than servicers of loan held by mortgage investors.



Wells related question. Though they service 1/6 of all U.S. mortgages, what portion of that figure do they hold on their books. Better question, of the outstanding mortgages in the U.S. what portion are owned and serviced by the same enitity? Searching...
 
[quote author="NewportSkipper" date=1252544322]This is a couple of months old, but close enough.



"Foreclosure Starts Hit One Million So Far This Year"





<a href="http://<http://www.responsiblelending.org/media-center/press-releases/archives/foreclosure-starts-hit-one-million-so-far-this-year.html>"><http://www.responsiblelending.org/media-center/press-releases/archives/foreclosure-starts-hit-one-million-so-far-this-year.html></a>



(Thanks)





I guess they're expecting as many as 2.5 million starts. No matter how you slice it, 100k-500k (or more) helped in one month is huge.</blockquote>


Skippy



Your "link" is no bueno.
 
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