Laguna Niguel Prices

[RobertLarsen_IHB]

I wanted to try a poll to see how far the average IHB member believes home prices will fall before they reach the bottom. It's impossible to lump the question into Orange County as a whole because I just think the area is too diverse, so I picked Laguna Niguel. I picked Laguna Niguel because it's a great middle indicator; it contains pretty much all price ranges except for the extreme upper echelon that coastal cities offer.



Just to add a little background information about this past year/month:



<img src="http://occoastalnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/09/chart.jpg" alt="" />

 

[bltserv_IHB]

I am still of the school of thought we have 1 more leg down before any stability returns to the RE market.

Until the availability of easy to get Jumbo loans improves. Laguna Niguel prices will continue to erode

Until people return to "trading up" with their home purchases. This upper end market will stay very soft.



I wouldnt want to use a graph that has a "pimple" up on the trend line for one month to base a conclusion.



Look at the trend line for prices over the last 2 years. Or overall loss of equity from the peak.

Right now a purchase would be "knife catching" at best. Your more than likely going to bleed some.

 

[awgee_IHB]

In real vs. nominal dollars, -71% from peak to trough.

 

[RobertLarsen_IHB]

I guess quite a few people think we're only half way through...