Ladera Ranch

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butterflymama_IHB

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I know it's impossible to predict these things, but I am going to throw it out there anyways. Obviously the Ladera Ranch housing market has taken some real hits and is one of the worst performing (if not THE worst performing) market in the OC. My question is this: Will it continue to go down? How much? When do you think we see bottom? Again, I know we don't have crystal balls and I certainly know I'm asking hard-to-answer questions. I am interested in hearing the discussion though.



Thanks!
 
[quote author="butterflymama" date=1240376312]I know it's impossible to predict these things, but I am going to throw it out there anyways. Obviously the Ladera Ranch housing market has taken some real hits and is one of the worst performing (if not THE worst performing) market in the OC. My question is this: Will it continue to go down? How much? When do you think we see bottom? Again, I know we don't have crystal balls and I certainly know I'm asking hard-to-answer questions. I am interested in hearing the discussion though.



Thanks!</blockquote>


an area that is far inland from the beach, very far south from job centers, is very sterile/cookie cutter, and buyers with not a lot of equity. Yeah, I think it's going to continue going down.
 
The less expensive homes that have already taken a huge hit will keep decreasing in price, but not as much as the higher end homes which are about to get walloped.
 
It would seem to me the markets and price segments that have fallen furthest probably have less room to fall. The markets that have not yet fallen as far, have further to fall. At least that is what I took from the posting from our new Irvine Housing Brokers.
 
First, I agree with awgee. Currently, the lower-end is roughly 35-50% off peak prices and could go to 70% off peak or further depending upon which "neighborhood" you buy in and when we pull out of this economic mess. If you are looking for a condo or a townhome (the lower-end), most do not have any private outdoor entertaining space. A tiny balcony or front porch that barely fits 2 chairs and a small table is the norm. The few townhomes that have reasonably sized yards or patios with any privacy whatsoever are more desireable and seem to sell quicker. There are many neighborhoods in Ladera and so you should look at as many homes as possible to figure out where you want to be and if you want to buy there. If you haven't done so already, start reviewing comps. If you buy a townhome or condo, you will likely have 2 HOA payments (for your neighborhood and the master association).



IMO, Ladera is no more sterile or cookie-cutter like than other OC cities, and specifically, Irvine. Ladera was first sold during the bubble, and so it has been hit hard. It is also a fringe location, further from job centers, and so the prices started to fall before other parts of OC and prices have fallen much faster. However, the western-most part of Ladera is only 2-3 miles from the 5, off Crown Valley. From this part of Ladera, it can take the same amount of time or less to get to Laguna Beach or Dana Point as it takes to get from the Culver/5 area of Irvine to Laguna Beach or Newport Beach. Leaving between 7 and 8 a.m., it takes 25-40 minutes to get to Culver off the 405. Other parts of Ladera are further inland (towards Antonio or further off Crown Valley) and are more comparable to Coto, distance-wise.
 
[quote author="Sunshine" date=1240388464]First, I agree with awgee. Currently, the lower-end is roughly 35-50% off peak prices and could go to 70% off peak or further depending upon which "neighborhood" you buy in and when we pull out of this economic mess. If you are looking for a condo or a townhome (the lower-end), most do not have any private outdoor entertaining space. A tiny balcony or front porch that barely fits 2 chairs and a small table is the norm. The few townhomes that have reasonably sized yards or patios with any privacy whatsoever are more desireable and seem to sell quicker. There are many neighborhoods in Ladera and so you should look at as many homes as possible to figure out where you want to be and if you want to buy there. If you haven't done so already, start reviewing comps. If you buy a townhome or condo, you will likely have 2 HOA payments (for your neighborhood and the master association).



IMO, Ladera is no more sterile or cookie-cutter like than other OC cities, and specifically, Irvine. Ladera was first sold during the bubble, and so it has been hit hard. It is also a fringe location, further from job centers, and so the prices started to fall before other parts of OC and prices have fallen much faster. However, the western-most part of Ladera is only 2-3 miles from the 5, off Crown Valley. From this part of Ladera, it can take the same amount of time or less to get to Laguna Beach or Dana Point as it takes to get from the Culver/5 area of Irvine to Laguna Beach or Newport Beach. Leaving between 7 and 8 a.m., it takes 25-40 minutes to get to Culver off the 405. Other parts of Ladera are further inland (towards Antonio or further off Crown Valley) and are more comparable to Coto, distance-wise.</blockquote>


I agree all of south inland oc is sterile and cookie cutter. that is one reason the area is getting hit harder than more established parts of LA and OC. A house is a house is a house. Undifferentiated commodity. These areas were built to be cheaper alternatives. It's just that a lot of south oc got caught up in the bubble hype and thought they were richer than they are. They started overpaying and making it worse they couldn't afford to overpay.
 
I'm not particularly fond of LR due to its climate, distance from work, and architecture but there's a solid chance we'll end up there. There is nowhere in OC I've seen a larger population of young uppity families with toddlers. The place is overrun with diaper-shitting tykes; perfect for my <2yr-old and future shitter. Checking it out at Christmas, it was ridiculous the family and neighborhood participation. Some things are worth the sacrifice, I suppose.



That being said, LR is still waaay overpriced and many/most families extended themselves too far for a piece of the action. There's still a lot of bloodshed to be had. The HOA and MR is atrocious and needs a heavy discount. Without appreciation all those climate, power line, commute, and landfill shenanigans will factor more and more into the price. It's still has some nice neighborhoods, good schools, safe, etc. but I'm in no hurry to put my money on the line - just so long as the spousal unit stays off the pipe.
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1240381140]The less expensive homes that have already taken a huge hit will keep decreasing in price, but not as much as the higher end homes which are about to get walloped.</blockquote>


You know... you sound like a total nutter, but I know how you feel. The high-end is getting spanked big time, but the lower end is still getting whacked. Granted, it is difficult to see all 249 of those in foreclosure, and it is even more difficult to see the multiple properties that foreclosureradar can't map, but here is your sign...



http://i40.tinypic.com/dxka9u.jpg



That sea of green is not a good sign, and Covenant Hills looks like a total disaster. Just think... if foreclosureradar can't map all the properties because of issues with the county, then think how bad that picture would be if it could. 249 is only what can be seen, but it is way more than what can be seen.
 
A lot of interesting points. Thanks for your input everyone. I know there is going to be a HUGE wave of ARM re-sets next year.... I wonder how that will further affect the LR real estate market. I can't imagine Ladera NOT being negatively affected in the next 2-3 years.
 
[quote author="butterflymama" date=1240376312]I know it's impossible to predict these things, but I am going to throw it out there anyways. Obviously the Ladera Ranch housing market has taken some real hits and is one of the worst performing (if not THE worst performing) market in the OC. My question is this: Will it continue to go down? How much? When do you think we see bottom? Again, I know we don't have crystal balls and I certainly know I'm asking hard-to-answer questions. I am interested in hearing the discussion though.



Thanks!</blockquote>


For quite some time as we have until 2012 to wash through all the crappy alt-a option arm loans. I predicte until 2014 because it will take a couple of years beyond that for people to deal with all the stupid traffic circles...
 
That is my feeling too. I don't see any possibility for recovery until 2012, but like you said, we'd need a year or two beyond that for things to shake out. I do see the "higher end" places recovering sooner b/c I'm not sure there are as many bad loans there (could be wrong). But in Ladera? I think there are MANY MANY residents who stretched beyond their means to get into Ladera. They are in for a rude awakening unfortunately.....
 
By the way, a lot of the lower end stuff is trading at rental parity now in Ladera. At least some of the numbers I have run seems like you could get some meaningful positive cash flow if you put 20% down. The price segment I have seen this at is the approximately 1300 to 1800 SF townhouses that seem to be selling for maybe $200 to $225 per SF.



Qualifier - that is based on today's rents. I would guess that rents have fallen about 10% to 15% already in OC and have about 10% more to fall based on the employment picture.
 
Let me ask this (opinions please!!!):



3000 sq ft house

7000-10000 sq ft yard



In Ladera Ranch, what would you have to pay for this type of property in 2009? in 2012?



For the record, I look at the comps, zillow, realtor.com, etc..... there is a large variation and it's hard to make sense of it.
 
[quote author="butterflymama" date=1240453171]Let me ask this (opinions please!!!):



3000 sq ft house

7000-10000 sq ft yard



In Ladera Ranch, what would you have to pay for this type of property in 2009? in 2012?



For the record, I look at the comps, zillow, realtor.com, etc..... there is a large variation and it's hard to make sense of it.</blockquote>


Location? Upgrades? Yard? Pool? HOA?



$600-$850 I would say
 
[quote author="AVRenter" date=1240407092]I'm not particularly fond of LR due to its climate, distance from work, and architecture but there's a solid chance we'll end up there. There is nowhere in OC I've seen a larger population of young uppity families with toddlers. The place is overrun with diaper-shitting tykes; perfect for my <2yr-old and future shitter. Checking it out at Christmas, it was ridiculous the family and neighborhood participation. Some things are worth the sacrifice, I suppose.



That being said, LR is still waaay overpriced and many/most families extended themselves too far for a piece of the action. There's still a lot of bloodshed to be had. The HOA and MR is atrocious and needs a heavy discount. Without appreciation all those climate, power line, commute, and landfill shenanigans will factor more and more into the price. It's still has some nice neighborhoods, good schools, safe, etc. but I'm in no hurry to put my money on the line - just so long as the spousal unit stays off the pipe.</blockquote>


I agree completely. This forum has too much emphasis on making every last penny of profit from your investment of your home. If you have small kids and want to surround yourself with people just like you, there are only a few places to live. Despite this forums preference, they aren't necessarily the TIC properties, or Irvine at all. LR was built with skimpy little saplings for landscape, and some odd architectural decisions. But driving through there today, those little trees are now big and the whole area has turned out very nice. People I know that live there are extremely happy with their decision. Its not my decision due to where I work and where my extended family live but I would recommend it. A few years ago people were spending 1.5MM for homes that are now worth 850k and dropping. About 1 year from now would be a great time to pick up a decent mcmansion is Covenant Hills for 650-700k. The prado homes would be my target if I were in that market.
 
[quote author="Goofy" date=1240459503][quote author="AVRenter" date=1240407092]I'm not particularly fond of LR due to its climate, distance from work, and architecture but there's a solid chance we'll end up there. There is nowhere in OC I've seen a larger population of young uppity families with toddlers. The place is overrun with diaper-shitting tykes; perfect for my <2yr-old and future shitter. Checking it out at Christmas, it was ridiculous the family and neighborhood participation. Some things are worth the sacrifice, I suppose.



That being said, LR is still waaay overpriced and many/most families extended themselves too far for a piece of the action. There's still a lot of bloodshed to be had. The HOA and MR is atrocious and needs a heavy discount. Without appreciation all those climate, power line, commute, and landfill shenanigans will factor more and more into the price. It's still has some nice neighborhoods, good schools, safe, etc. but I'm in no hurry to put my money on the line - just so long as the spousal unit stays off the pipe.</blockquote>


I agree completely. This forum has too much emphasis on making every last penny of profit from your investment of your home. If you have small kids and want to surround yourself with people just like you, there are only a few places to live. Despite this forums preference, they aren't necessarily the TIC properties, or Irvine at all. LR was built with skimpy little saplings for landscape, and some odd architectural decisions. But driving through there today, those little trees are now big and the whole area has turned out very nice. People I know that live there are extremely happy with their decision. Its not my decision due to where I work and where my extended family live but I would recommend it. A few years ago people were spending 1.5MM for homes that are now worth 850k and dropping. About 1 year from now would be a great time to pick up a decent mcmansion is Covenant Hills for 650-700k. The prado homes would be my target if I were in that market.</blockquote>


the problem is that most of the people who bought in ladera are so focussed on appearing wealthier than they are it's hard to argue that is a good place to raise children. I prefer areas where the middle class are ok being middle class. That eliminates most of south inland oc I guess but ladera is probably the worst.
 
[quote author="not a realtor" date=1240461699][quote author="Goofy" date=1240459503][quote author="AVRenter" date=1240407092]I'm not particularly fond of LR due to its climate, distance from work, and architecture but there's a solid chance we'll end up there. There is nowhere in OC I've seen a larger population of young uppity families with toddlers. The place is overrun with diaper-shitting tykes; perfect for my <2yr-old and future shitter. Checking it out at Christmas, it was ridiculous the family and neighborhood participation. Some things are worth the sacrifice, I suppose.



That being said, LR is still waaay overpriced and many/most families extended themselves too far for a piece of the action. There's still a lot of bloodshed to be had. The HOA and MR is atrocious and needs a heavy discount. Without appreciation all those climate, power line, commute, and landfill shenanigans will factor more and more into the price. It's still has some nice neighborhoods, good schools, safe, etc. but I'm in no hurry to put my money on the line - just so long as the spousal unit stays off the pipe.</blockquote>


I agree completely. This forum has too much emphasis on making every last penny of profit from your investment of your home. If you have small kids and want to surround yourself with people just like you, there are only a few places to live. Despite this forums preference, they aren't necessarily the TIC properties, or Irvine at all. LR was built with skimpy little saplings for landscape, and some odd architectural decisions. But driving through there today, those little trees are now big and the whole area has turned out very nice. People I know that live there are extremely happy with their decision. Its not my decision due to where I work and where my extended family live but I would recommend it. A few years ago people were spending 1.5MM for homes that are now worth 850k and dropping. About 1 year from now would be a great time to pick up a decent mcmansion is Covenant Hills for 650-700k. The prado homes would be my target if I were in that market.</blockquote>


the problem is that most of the people who bought in ladera are so focussed on appearing wealthier than they are it's hard to argue that is a good place to raise children. I prefer areas where the middle class are ok being middle class. That eliminates most of south inland oc I guess but ladera is probably the worst.</blockquote> Most people? You guess? What is your basis for making such broad-sweeping, speculative, stereotypical statements about ONE south OC city in order to conclude that it's therefore a bad place to raise children? Do we not, every day, read a Blog post about HELOC abusers in Irvine? Do we not read forum posts about HELOC abusers in other OC cities? I don't disagree that there are people in Ladera who are focused on appearing wealthier than they are, but, it's certainly not something that is unique to Ladera, or Orange County. Generally, America has become a credit-dependent society, and some depend on credit to appear wealthier then they are. I'm a Ladera homeowner, and I would still be driving an 11-year-old car had it not been stolen.
 
[quote author="Sunshine" date=1240466067]I'm a Ladera homeowner, and I would still be driving an 11-year-old car had it not been stolen.</blockquote>


You dont want to live in Ladera - you might get your car stolen
 
[quote author="Sunshine" date=1240466067]Most people? You guess? What is your basis for making such broad-sweeping, speculative, stereotypical statements </blockquote>


What they see on TV / Real Housewives of the OC is the basis. My 23 y.o. nephew just moved out here because he liked what he saw on the Laguna Beach show. Those shows shape people's perceptions. Just my 2 cents.
 
[quote author="Stuff It" date=1240469918][quote author="Sunshine" date=1240466067]I'm a Ladera homeowner, and I would still be driving an 11-year-old car had it not been stolen.</blockquote>


You dont want to live in Ladera - you might get your car stolen</blockquote>


Stolen from HB. :)
 
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